When I write a bug it becomes the core gameplay

"Let the players... become more and more unlucky the more they draw??"

Lilith was shocked. Obviously, this was something she had never thought of.

At present, the card drawing in the pay-to-win game can basically be described as "European and African conservation".

Although it is not the case for individuals, some players may always be lucky and some players may always be unlucky, but overall, it is indeed conserved.

Some unlucky players are struggling to move forward because other European players are living a peaceful life.

From the perspective of game manufacturers, except for a very small number of truly shameless manufacturers who choose to secretly change the data and do nothing, most game manufacturers will not tamper with the probability of drawing cards in the game.

The reason is also very simple:

The positioning of pay-to-win game manufacturers is strictly the same as that of casinos.

The casino makes money from the rake, so whether the gambler loses or wins, the casino will not lose money.

The scenario that many people imagine "the gambler wins too much and the casino will not let him go" will never happen.

On the contrary, casinos will escort gamblers back with great fanfare and promote it desperately. After all, the statement that "gamblers really won money in this casino" is conducive to attracting more people to gamble.

The same is true for krypton gold games.

Although most krypton gold game manufacturers will strictly control the delivery rate of the UP pool, players will always encounter situations where advance deposits are not paid and small guarantees are distorted, but in general, krypton gold game manufacturers will still try their best to maintain the fairness and justice of the entire card drawing mechanism, and even welcome those European players to spread special situations such as "continuous gold" and "double gold".

To break this situation, the krypton gold card drawing system must be made into a system that "most people are not satisfied with".

So Lilith's problem is: "It seems that it is okay to make players draw more and more, but how to do it specifically?"

Gu Fan explained: "It's very simple. Although the official requires all game manufacturers to state the delivery probability in the card drawing system, there is actually no exact requirement for the specific value.

"And the requirements are often the 'minimum value' and 'bottom line value', rather than having to write out the most realistic probability and mechanism.

"In that case, it gives us a certain amount of room for maneuver."

Lilith nodded slightly. This kind of thing is not difficult to verify.

Open any krypton gold card drawing mobile game, and you can find the corresponding instructions in the card drawing system.

For example:

"In the UP pool of this issue, the basic probability of obtaining a five-star character is 1.4%. When a five-star character appears, the probability of obtaining character A is 55%. The highest 140 draws will definitely get character A."

If a similar explanation appears, it can be understood as follows:

Every time the player draws, there is a 1.4% chance of getting a five-star character.

But this five-star character is not necessarily the UP pool character that the player wants, it may also be some five-star characters in the permanent pool that are not strong.

This point is also explained: when the player draws a five-star character, which is commonly known as "gold", the probability of obtaining UP pool character A is 55%, which means that there is a 45% probability of obtaining other unwanted permanent pool five-star characters.

But just stipulating the probability is not enough.

Because according to expectations, the probability of 1.4% means that the card should be out around 70 draws, but if it is a real probability, there must be a large number of players who have not gotten it after 70 draws.

So, the game is basically a fake probability.

In fact, when the player has not gotten gold after about 60 draws, the probability of getting gold when drawing cards again will be greatly increased.

For example, the probability of not getting gold every time before is increased by 1%, but after 60 draws, the probability of not getting gold will be directly increased by 5% or even 10%.

This ensures that players will definitely get gold around 70 draws, which is to trigger a "small guarantee".

For players, getting gold after 70 draws is already very unusual.

But if you actually analyze this system, you will find that game manufacturers have generally increased the delivery rate.

Those players with good luck do not need to get gold after 70 draws; and those players with bad luck who did not get gold after 70 draws are also forced to get a gold at 70 draws by the official.

So in actual calculation, the comprehensive draw rate of players drawing a five-star character is much higher than 1.4%.

But the game company will not write the real probability, but only write a most basic expected probability of 1.4%. For this, the official rules are completely allowed.

If the game manufacturer really wants to, it can also reverse the false label.

For example, it says that the shipment rate of its game is 1%, but in fact it is 5%.

But basically no manufacturer will do this. After all, the high shipment rate of its own game is already a more conscientious profit-making behavior, and of course it must be publicized.

Even if the players are not grateful, it is good to curse less.

Reverse false labeling, players may not feel it, and do not think that it is the official profit-making, but only think that they are lucky, so isn’t it a waste of profit?

At this time, Gu Fan wanted to take advantage of this.

"Mr. Li, this is what I think.

"First of all, the krypton gold system itself is a black box, and players can't actually fully understand what is in this black box.

"Secondly, although the official wants to check this black box, the official will not manage all the mechanisms. They only require that the guaranteed probability we promote is consistent with the actual situation in the game. As for how it is consistent, there is no specific requirement.

"Based on the above two points, we can find a way to raise the players' psychological expectations when their perception is not strong at the beginning, and then let them fall to the ground hard!

"This is called 'It is easy to go from frugality to luxury, but it is difficult to go from luxury to frugality'.

“We designed a krypton gold card drawing system that ‘as the number of draws increases, the probability of shipment becomes lower and lower’.

“Of course, this system needs to be somewhat confusing, and we still have to distinguish European emperors and non-chiefs among the crowd, so that players can still have randomness every time they draw a card.

“In other words, all players meet the general premise that ‘the higher the draw number, the lower the probability of shipment’. However, under this general premise, some are good and some are not.

"Our goal is to make players feel vaguely that something is wrong, but not completely solid."

Lilith frowned slightly: "Can the official side agree?"

Gu Fan continued: "This is the issue we discussed before: the official only requires that the basic extraction probability of a five-star character is not less than 0.5%, and the probability we announce must be real and cannot be false, but it can be reversed. virtual mark.

"So we can completely follow this rule and design a system where the more we draw, the more we fail."

“Our basic drawing probability for five-star characters is set at 0.5%. This number is lower than the current common krypton gold games, but it doesn’t matter.

“Like other cash-based games, we open two UP pools every month. The first half of the month is for new characters, and the second half of the month is for old characters.

"Our actual probability is:

“In the same UP pool, the higher the probability of shipment is, the higher the probability of shipment is, while the higher the probability of shipment is, the lower the probability is.

“Other games use 60 draws, 80 draws, and 160 draws as a cycle, but we use 1,000 draws as a cycle.

"Within 1,000 draws, the basic draw probability of our five-star characters is 0.5%, and the comprehensive draw probability is 1.5%, but the draw probability decreases step by step.

“That is, the first 100 draws have the highest comprehensive extraction probability, and the last 100 draws have the lowest comprehensive extraction probability, but on average, the comprehensive extraction probability can reach 1.5%.

“The front is more conscientious than other game manufacturers, but the back and on average are worse than other game manufacturers.

“Because most players will not draw more than 300 cards in each card pool, so for multiple UP pools, the overall shipping probability of the UP pool in the front is higher, while the overall shipping probability of the UP pool in the back is lower. Low.

“When it reaches a certain level, it will bottom out and recalculate.

"For example, we have two UP pools each month, the first half and the second half. Players earn 300 draws in the first half of the pool, and 200 draws in the second half of the pool. Then next month, they earn 300 draws in the first half of the pool. 300 draws were earned in the pool, and 200 draws were earned in the second half of the pool.

"At this time, he will obviously feel that this month is much different than the last month, and the second half of the pool is much different than the upper half of the pool.

“There will be a feeling of ‘the more you smoke, the more you feel bad’.

"But when he draws 1,000 draws, he will bottom out and recalculate, and the draw probability will increase again, so that he will not be depressed enough to quit the game."

Lilith felt a little brain-burning, and she frowned in thought.

After a long time, she nodded slowly: "It sounds reasonable."

This principle is actually very simple. It is just a psychological effect.

From a probability perspective, this approach is actually not fundamentally different from that of other game manufacturers.