Top of the big era

Twitter is actually a terrible product.

Looking at it now, there is not much difference between Twitter and Weibo. Weibo imitates Twitter in every aspect.

After a few years, the gap will become apparent.

Even though Weibo is modeled after Twitter, from every aspect, Weibo is far stronger than Twitter.

The biggest advantages of Twitter are probably three points——

First, outside the wall, you can make some large-scale remarks and be more open;

Second, there is less regulatory pressure and more freedom;

Third, there is no need to recruit thousands of reviewers to review and delete posts. This can save about 1 billion US dollars in salary, benefits and other expenses at this level every year, which is even more economical.

But even so, Weibo's product is far ahead of Twitter in terms of convenience, innovation, commerciality, stability and other aspects.

As a result, Twitter's stock price has remained depressed for a long time, and it has not even had a market value of US$10 billion for five or six consecutive years. Later, the new president of the United States saved Twitter, and used "Twitter to govern the country", which was equivalent to a world-class super advertisement for Twitter, and the stock price finally exceeded the IPO price in 2013.

The market capitalization also exceeds US$40 billion.

But even so, it can't cover up how bad this product is.

It can be said that with the development of the Internet, domestic Internet products are significantly ahead of the products produced by Silicon Valley giants, whether in product design or business innovation, or in terms of user stickiness training and user experience.

Later, Musk spent $44 billion to acquire Twitter. The first thing he had to do was to completely liquidate Twitter! Big blood change!

The main idea is to "copy China", with three points in total: in terms of corporate systems and employee appointment, learn from Alibaba's value judgment; in terms of product design and product innovation, learn from Penguin's WeChat; in terms of commercialization and making money, copy Weibo's That set.

Zhou Buqi actually had the idea of ​​cashing out of Twitter from the very beginning. It is estimated that Twitter's board of directors also noticed this, so he stayed away from the big territory of "Ziwei Galaxy".

If you want to cash out, the next few years will be your best opportunity.

If we wait for Twitter to go public, we will be in trouble. As various information becomes public after the listing, Twitter's poor profit model will soon be discovered by the capital market, and then the stock price will fall into a long-term downturn. If you want to cash out again, it will have to be many years later.

This matter really needs to be upgraded.

When to sell Twitter's shares depends on Twitter's growth situation and the negotiation process with Google. However, you can first look at the relevant data on Twitter and do some research first.

Zhou Buqi asked Ziweixing International to send a copy of the details of the E-round financing that Twitter had completed just a few days ago, and then went back to the room to sleep with Ning Yaxian and Sun Wanran in his arms.

When I woke up, the plane had already arrived over Hungary.

"It's okay, you can sleep a little longer."

Seeing that Ning Yaxian wanted to get up, Zhou Buqi pushed her into bed, kissed her on the face, then put on her pajamas and went to the office area alone.

Turn on your computer and check your email.

This time last year, Twitter had 60 million users; now it has 198 million.

Among them, mobile phone users account for 20%, approximately 37 million. This data is really not that good, far inferior to the two social products Helo and Ucgram owned by Ziweixing International.

This is also related to Twitter’s reluctance to move closer to Ziweixing.

If Twitter wants to be self-reliant, its globalization will be slower. Currently, its main markets are the United States and Europe, followed by the Korean and Japanese markets. There are no offices in other countries and regions. For example, if users from the Hong Kong government want to access Twitter, they must connect to a server in Tokyo through undersea optical fiber.

In contrast, Helo and Ucgram are different.

Especially Ucgram, which has only been launched for a year. In October, Tang Binchen said that the number of global users has exceeded 60 million. Moreover, Ucgram only has a mobile version, and these 60 million are mobile users.

Today’s Twitter is mainly a PC product.

Of course, with the launch of the second issue of "Instructions", it is conceivable that this product should be able to quickly develop in the mobile market.

However, data shows that in Twitter’s E-round financing evaluation, PC users and mobile users were treated equally by the employer. The valuation of one registered user is US$20, and 200 million users is an overall valuation of US$4 billion.

There is no higher offer just because they are mobile users.

This shows that the employer has some misjudgments in this regard, believing that PC users and mobile users can be equated, and that PC Internet and mobile Internet develop together.

They simply did not realize that after the development of the mobile Internet, it would seriously erode the original share and profits of the PC Internet.

At this time, Sun Wanran came over wearing pajamas and carrying two glasses of juice.

"Huh? Are you awake?" Zhou Buqi took the juice, "Thank you, baby."

Sun Wanran liked how he inadvertently called her "baby". She was very happy in her heart. She sat down next to him with a snicker in her mouth and said softly: "I'm not going to sleep. If I go to bed again, I won't be jetlagged... Eh. ?Are you looking at Twitter material?”

As the closest person to Zhou Buqi, Sun Wanran did not need to avoid any documents. Her reading level was even higher than Wen Zhixia and Xue Baoshan.

Zhou Buqi said: "Well, your suggestion is very good. I have to study it carefully."

Sun Wanran was very happy, with a smile as bright as a flower. She leaned against him gently with her soft body, "How is it? Did you find anything?"

Zhou Buqi smiled and said, "Yes!"

"Ah?" Sun Wanran's beautiful eyes widened, "Really?"

"Yes, look here, here, here..."

Zhou Buqi pointed at several sets of data on the computer screen and then made some comparisons.

Sun Wanran was confused, "What's wrong?"

Zhou Buqi said: "Look at the employer's evaluation of Twitter, these user data...Both the employer and Twitter believe that PC users and mobile users are equivalent, and the valuation of each registered user is US$20. ."

"Any questions?"

Sun Wanran looked confused.

Obviously he can't understand such a high-end problem.

This is also normal.

Even the smartest venture capital institutions in the world today, as well as the executives within Twitter, all agree that the value of PC users and mobile users is equal, and Wan Wan cannot have a higher level of insight.

Zhou Buqi said: "There is a problem, it is a big problem!"

Sun Wanran blinked a few times and asked tentatively: "Isn't it equal?"

"Of course, this is not equitable at all." Zhou Buqi said loudly, "The PC Internet and the mobile Internet are a zero-sum game. It's not life and death, at least they are competing with each other."

How could Sun Wanran understand such a complicated matter? He just considered that Ziweixing was gradually embarking on the "mobile first, cloud first" strategy and made some basic judgments, "Mobile users are more valuable?"

Zhou Buqi smiled, "That's right! Mobile users are mainly based on mobile phones, which determines that mobile users can use it more frequently. The online time is longer, the usage time is longer, and the advertising value created will of course be more. many."

"Yes!" Sun Wanran's beautiful eyes sparkled, "That's right!"

Zhou Buqi said: "In fact, it is not difficult to make such a basic judgment. What is difficult is the cognitive change from PC Internet to mobile Internet. On the surface, PC users can be smoothly transformed into mobile users. In fact, No. In the future, there will definitely be many excellent products in the PC Internet that cannot keep up with the trend of the mobile Internet and are eliminated, and users cannot convert at all. Product design in different forms is completely different concepts, managed by Twitter Judging from the level of senior management and the large number of female employees they have recruited, it is almost impossible for them to make Twitter on mobile phones better without many years of trial and error and correction.”

Sun Wanran's face darkened, "What does this have to do with female employees? Gender discrimination?"

Zhou Buqi said: "Political correctness, there must be more men than women in a technology company, and there must be a lot of white and yellow skin, and too few dark skin. Twitter has indicators, how many female employees are there? There are so many black employees, how the hell can we do this well? The current development momentum is so good, it is nothing more than a good situation, and the PC Internet is reaching its peak period."

"Um……"

Sun Wanran fell into a long examination, analyzing the profound meaning of this guy's words.

But this is really a bit complicated.

After a long time, Sun Wanran gave up, sighed, and pouted, "I can't understand."

Zhou Buqi laughed, put his arm around her shoulders and kissed her face several times, "It's normal if you don't understand. I'm the only one in the world who can understand this profound question!"

Sun Wanran gave him an angry look, "Bragging."

Zhou Buqi snorted: "This is not bragging!"

"What's going on? Tell me."

"You know, now is the early stage of the development of the mobile Internet, and the PC Internet is reaching its peak. The mobile Internet and the PC Internet are a zero-sum game. As long as the mobile Internet develops, the PC Internet will inevitably decline from the top of the mountain. "

"You mean..." Sun Wanran is also very smart. Following his train of thought, it is easier to follow, "You mean that the current PC Internet has a peak illusion that can easily confuse people?"

"Yes, it's an illusion." Zhou Buqi praised, "It's a very accurate description. The PC Internet is still on a hilly road and will climb to its peak in the next few years. This can easily create a huge bubble in the market."

Sun Wanran said: "But as long as the mobile Internet takes off, the PC Internet will take a sharp turn, and the bubble will burst. If Twitter makes a mistake in judging the value of users, it will overestimate the value of PC users. When the mobile Internet takes off, PCs will If the Internet goes down, Twitter’s valuation will shrink dramatically.”

"That's right!"

Zhou Buqi can make such a decision very firmly.

The current theoretical analysis of data and the advantage of foresight are enough for him to make the most accurate judgment, thus giving him the most favorable basis for decision-making.