New Shun 1730

It was impossible for the emperor to think about an abdication edict or anything like that at this time.

After all, Dashun now seems to be in a prosperous age. Not to mention the scary-sounding abdication edict, the emperor is still thinking about the dream of prospering the Zhou Dynasty for 800 years.

As for the idea of ​​continuing the reform and developing industry and commerce.

For the Dashun court, according to the traditional way of thinking, a line was drawn to separate the inside and outside, with small-scale farming traditions on one side and coastal industry and commerce on the other.

It's nothing more than being clear-headed and knowing which one is the fundamentals and which one is just a financial tool; which one's skills can make the boat overturned, and which one's skills may be too big to lose, or even kidnap the court.

As for what is called a basic disk.

It does not mean that these people who kept shouting, firmly supported the Dashun court, and were able to defend Dashun by themselves until the end of the dynasty were considered fundamental.

Rather, taxes, stability, labor, soldiers, and servitude, which can contribute under the rule, are called the basic base.

For a few hundred years, as long as the farmers can survive, the imperial court will prosper; as long as the farmers cannot survive, the history of the imperial court will be over. The imperial court knows who is the foundation of the imperial court.

It may be said that what the emperor was worried about and what Liu Yu was worried about regarding the small peasant issue were essentially not the same thing.

But in terms of form, both sides have a certain common language.

At the juncture when Dashun is about to launch currency reform, both sides generally agree on how to prevent the "currency easy-to-get zone" from causing major troubles through a unified internal market, a unified currency, and free trading of farmland. To carry out financial control.

Regarding currency reform and the subsequent Saint-Simonian banking industry ideas, it can certainly be interpreted from various perspectives.

From the perspective of future economics, there is the so-called "impossible triangle of financial policy."

That is, freedom of capital movement, independence of monetary policy, and exchange rate stability.

Among these three, you can only choose two at most, and it is impossible to have all three.

Before Dashun’s currency reform, Dashun actually only had one in this impossible triangle, and that was the freedom of capital flow.

Historically, a group of Shaanxi people who sold salt in Yangzhou were able to return to Shaanxi with capital and artillery, entered Sichuan, and controlled the salt industry in southern Sichuan. They also opened pawn shops in Sichuan and made loan sharks at high interest rates. The local Sichuan people rioted and wanted to drive the Shaanxi people back to the Qinling Mountains. To the north...

Historically, a group of people who earned silver from coastal trade or salt trade returned to their ancestral homes and bought land like crazy, which could directly increase local low prices by 50 to 60%...

Historically, a group of people who controlled the right to issue silver notes through foreign trade took the silver to directly control the copper-silver exchange in tea-producing areas, thus obtaining a large amount of tea at extremely low silver prices...

If you want to say that this is not a flow of capital, that is definitely wrong.

As for the other two triangles, monetary policy independence and exchange rate stability.

It can only be said that for hundreds of years, the currency "issuance" ability was actually profitable, from the issuance of currency to recycling copper coins, melting them into copper and then selling them. In fact, there was no monetary policy at all.

And the stable exchange rate... often causes big fluctuations such as "money is more expensive than silver" and "silver is more expensive than money"; wars in Europe and even uprisings in South America can directly affect the current situation of currency exchange in the country, then Not to mention a stable exchange rate.

From the perspective of this "impossible triangle" of later economics, Dashun's currency reform, as well as subsequent restrictions on inward circulation, household registration land purchase, and banking policies, are actually equivalent to changes in monetary policy. It's going to take a lot of action.

To throw away the original liquidity of capital.

Instead, rely on currency reform to regain "exchange rate stability" and "monetary policy independence."

In the past few hundred years, this is certainly not the first time that the imperial court has tried to touch the "seigniorage" thing.

It’s hard to say whether there is seigniorage on copper coins. I have never heard of a seigniorage tax. You can receive money from melting copper coins into copper and then selling them. You can actually make a profit from the seigniorage tax. I have also not heard that in order to stabilize the currency, you need to pay the seigniorage tax to big businessmen to sell copper in Japan.

The treasure banknotes could probably be counted as seigniorage, but the tax was a bit high and the tax collapsed.

Therefore, Dashun learned a lesson this time. Spanish silver dollars had been circulated on a large scale in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian before. Historically, during the Yongzong and Qianlong years of the Manchu and Qing Dynasties, there were many land deed transactions that survived for later generations, and Spanish silver dollars were used. ——Under the current situation, many knowledgeable people in the DPRK proposed to abolish the two reforms of the Yuan Dynasty and suggested minting coins.

But in the end, considering that the gold and silver plates in my hands were insufficient, I was afraid that it would not be possible, so I kept suppressing it.

Only now, when the gold and silver plates are sufficient, are we ready to carry out currency reform.

Since we are talking about currency reform, from the perspective of later economics, Dashun's idea is to reconstruct the impossible triangle of financial and monetary policy, throwing away the original corner and strengthening the two corners that were not there.

So, I have to say that the Saint-Simonian idea of ​​industrial banking is very suitable.

Lao Ma had commented at the beginning, saying that "[the purpose of chattel banks under the banner of Saint-Simon Industrial Company] is obviously to use a completely opposite method to the operation of commercial banks to affect capital."

[Commercial banks... enable fixed capital to be used freely for the time being]

[And (this set of things) actually fixes hot money and restricts the free use of capital]

[For example, normal stocks can be circulated very freely, but the capital represented by these stocks, that is, the capital invested in railway construction, is fixed... Almost every modern commercial crisis is related to the destruction of the proper proportional relationship between floating capital and fixed capital]

[... But the direct purpose of such an institution is to fix domestic loan capital as much as possible and invest it in railways, canals, mines, docks, ships, ironworks and other industrial enterprises...]

Of course, the use of the joint-stock system for industrial development, on the one hand, shows the joint production capacity that was unexpected in the past, and makes industrial enterprises have a scale that is beyond the reach of individual capitalists; on the other hand, it slides into the industrial feudalism mentioned by Fourier.

It should be noted that industrial feudalism is a historical process.

This is not something that anyone can invent.

And this set of things did not invent industrial feudalism, but cleverly used industrial feudalism as a tool, a tool to "pay tribute" to the real controllers.

Whether it is Saint-Simon, Nasan, the Bilera brothers, etc., these people who are doing this have no ability to "invent" industrial feudalism, because this thing is a historical process, just like gravity, it is not invented. But they invented a way to use industrial feudalism as their tribute tool.

This is of course crucial. It is related to whether the feudal rulers of Dashun can develop basic industrial development under the tradition of feudalism, rather than being afraid, fearful or directly destroying this bud.

In addition to this key factor, it is still this set of things, [actually fixing floating capital and restricting the free use of capital...investing in railways, canals, mines, docks, ships, ironworks and other industrial enterprises]

For the Dashun court, with their traditional thinking, what they are afraid of is precisely "massive floating capital".

This floating capital comes from gold mining in North America and Australia, from Dashun's foreign trade, from Dashun's current sphere of influence and the producer link that directly took over the Atlantic triangular trade.

According to traditional experience, these floating funds will rush to buy land, hoard land, loan sharks, and pawnshops.

As a traditional dynasty, from the most traditional perspective of "focusing on agriculture and neglecting commerce", what is feared is precisely these massive floating funds running to these places.

Therefore, in the end, [actually fixing floating funds and restricting the free use of capital...investing in railways, canals, mines, docks, ships, ironworks and other industrial enterprises] is crucial.

And this set of things is afraid of two things.

One is "not considering the country's production capacity", or in other words, how much potential does this high-speed industrial investment and production have, and how long can it last before it collapses?

The other is the financial crisis, and problems with currency, precious metals, etc. Since it is the era of precious metal currency, it is basically caused by the shortage of precious metals.

Dashun is not special.

There is no Dashun exception.

Obviously, since this set of things is chosen, once these two problems are encountered, it will collapse directly.

The question is, how long will it collapse? How long can it last?

After three years, the bubble bursts and collapses directly, like the story of John Law?

Or will it last for ten years, until the Yellow River channel is repaired and the Beijing-Hankou Railway is connected, and then collapse?

Or, can it last for twenty or thirty years of rapid development, like the French past, with an annual industrial growth rate of more than 8%, tens of thousands of kilometers of railways, a tenfold increase in coal mining and iron smelting, and hundreds of large steam engine factories before collapse?

For the Dashun Dynasty, it may not make much difference.

Die today, die tomorrow, die the day after tomorrow, it's all death, die early or late.

But for China, the difference is huge.

Collapse in three years, or after the Yellow River channel and Beijing-Hankou Railway are built, or rapid industrial development reaches the coastal steam era before collapse, the difference is simply like heaven and earth.

These two problems that lead to the collapse of this set of things will definitely be encountered.

The former is about how long can the period of rapid industrial development last? As long as it lasts long enough, then this set of things will not collapse for the time being. Relying on the "return rate", "interest rate difference", or "profit", "dividend" and so on of the rapid development of industry, it will not collapse in a short time.

The latter means that if you play this set of things in the era of precious metals, you have to consider your surplus, exports, precious metal stocks, and whether precious metals can keep up with the speed of industrial value-added.

That is to say, if you do this set of things, it is essentially the integration of "feudalism", "capitalism" and "emperor".

So, if Dashun wants to maintain this set of things and not collapse so quickly, or to hold on for a few more years and leave more industrial heritage, it must rely on one of the three mountains, "emperor".

Obviously, after winning the first war - before Dashun officially joined the war, it could only be called the Second Silesian War and the Anglo-French-Indian War; and from the moment Dashun marched into India from Ceylon and defeated the British colonial army, it could be called the First World War, and it won - Dashun was fully capable of holding on for a few more years.