Beiyang reactionaries

Wang Yongjiang nodded and said: "After receiving the telegrams from Europe and Minister Ren, the Economic and Development Committee immediately organized people to do some calculations. According to our revised second five-year plan and our country's tax situation , and the amount of raw materials exported by our country, we can borrow about US$13 billion during the second five-year plan period.”

"$13 billion, that's not a small amount."

Duan Xun was very serious.

$13 billion is a lot of money in this day and age.Not to mention anything else, there are not many countries with a combined global fiscal revenue of more than 13 billion US dollars.

That is, Japan's current annual fiscal revenue is not 13 billion US dollars.Not even talking about fiscal revenue, there are very few countries with a global GDP exceeding US$13 billion.You can see what a huge number $13 billion is.It's no small thing to borrow so much.To borrow so much, you must think clearly.Whether such a large amount of money can be digested, and how to repay the money in the future, all need to be carefully considered.

The US$13 billion is already nearly half of China's annual fiscal revenue.

"Premier Wang, you should be clear. When we formulated the second five-year plan, we not only considered our foreign exchange reserves and our import and export trade, but also considered our country's market conditions. If we have so many loans now, Have you calculated our market capacity and our repayment situation? With construction of this scale, do we have enough technicians and workers?"

Pulled around and moved the whole body.

For a government-led economic model like China, any action by the government will have a huge impact.If the government decides to lend $13 billion, it will affect every aspect of society.

After all, if the US$13 billion is spent, the imported machinery and equipment will increase substantially, more than doubling the original plan.With the import of so many machinery and equipment, the key projects of national investment will definitely increase.At that time, there will be many things to consider.

Especially overcapacity.

The current world economic crisis is largely due to overcapacity.There are too many things produced, and the market is not that big.Now that China is releasing water on a large scale, coupled with the use of a large amount of gold reserves, China's industrial output will undergo a drastic change after the Second Five-Year Plan.Industrial output will definitely double several times.Relying on the first five-year plan, the Soviet Union's industrial output jumped to the second place in the world.After China's second five-year plan, China's industrial output will not be inferior to that of the Soviet Union.Even according to the current situation, China's industrial output may be more than that of the Soviet Union.

But what about the market?

The current economic stimulus is only temporarily expanding the market.However, after the stimulus is over, the market will not grow at the same rate, and China will have excess capacity by then.

If another US$13 billion is borrowed from European and American countries, China's production capacity will be further increased by then, and its industrial output is estimated to be second only to the United States, easily surpassing the industrial output of the Soviet Union.This would further distort production and market conditions in China.

Not just this.

It is not easy to repay such a huge loan of 13 billion US dollars.As well as adding key projects here, there will be more Chinese technical personnel that are already lacking.

These all need to be considered as a whole.

"Prime Minister, there will definitely be market problems. After all, China's development time is limited. Although the urban population is increasing rapidly, everyone is not rich. Therefore, many of the things we produce do not have markets. But this is not something that can be solved overnight. .And the largest market in our country has always been government orders, so there are problems in this area, but we can reduce the impact. And we can't give up this great opportunity because of these problems. If we make good use of this economic crisis in the United States, Our country's industry will be able to have a complete foundation, and our country's industrial output may exceed that of Britain and France. And this time our industrial plan is different from the lame industrial development during the Westernization Movement in the late Qing Dynasty. This time we can completely build A complete industrial system allows our country to truly enter an industrial country."

The market is indeed a big problem.

China is currently developing industries, but there are actually many things that cannot find a market.Especially in China's heavy industry, many of them cannot find a market.Most of China's current industrial demand is not in the private market, but on the contrary, it is a market driven by the government's large investment.If there is no large order from the government, there will be no market for many heavy industrial products.

But Wang Yongjiang's meaning is very simple.

Not to be missed.

Regardless of what happens in the future, first improve the domestic industrial system and develop China's industry first.Unlike China's industrial development before, this time China has the opportunity to truly enter an industrial country and truly have a complete industrial system.However, relying on China's own foreign exchange reserves and the foreign exchange exchanged for exports, China is absolutely incapable of truly improving China's industry.

So a loan is a good idea.

Use European and American loans to purchase machinery and equipment from Europe and the United States.This is the best way to do it in case of lack of funds.

"As for the repayment, it is actually not unbearable. Although 13 billion US dollars is a lot, as long as we sign a long-term loan agreement, then our finances are completely acceptable. Calculated over a ten-year period, we need to repay about 5 million US dollars per year. It should be said that it does not need 5 million yuan. These only account for one-twentieth of China's current fiscal revenue. Therefore, as long as there are no major problems, the grain we export every year can completely solve this part of the loan. If it is 20 If the annual repayment period is calculated, then the annual repayment pressure will be even smaller. And as long as the world economy gets out of the current crisis, China's raw material export revenue will also increase greatly. Therefore, judging from our country's financial situation, the repayment pressure is not high. big."

China has all the advantages of a big country.

The country has a large land area, a large population, and abundant resources.The population is large, so the government can "exploit" these populations to accumulate raw funds.Resources are abundant, so China can export resources in exchange for foreign exchange.Therefore, according to the current situation, China's per capita wealth is not much, but the wealth of the whole country, especially the government's finances, is very large.

It is precisely because of this reason that the Chinese government can dominate the economy and investment.

$13 billion is a lot.

If it is a country like Japan, with a loan of 13 billion U.S. dollars, the finances of the principal and interest plus interest will collapse every year.But China is huge. Although US$13 billion is not a small amount, China can still withstand it.

"As for technical personnel, there are indeed some shortages, but there are always more solutions than difficulties. If it is really not possible, we can call on overseas students to return to China again."

A shortage of technical personnel has been limiting China's development.

Just look at the number of students with Chinese college diplomas.At present, there are less than 20 students with college graduate diplomas nationwide, only about 19.In other words, there are currently only about 19 Chinese university graduates.You can see the situation of Chinese education.

It is precisely because it is too difficult to train college students that the first five-year plan changed the education situation and began to vigorously develop technical secondary schools and technical schools.Technical secondary schools and technical schools have low investment, fast popularization, and good results. Now is the harvest period.According to the original second five-year plan, China does not lack technical personnel.It can even be said that it is more than enough to complete the Second Five-Year Plan.

However, because of the economic crisis in the United States, the second five-year plan was continuously expanded, and the new plan was several times larger than the original plan.Therefore, the need for technical personnel is also constantly expanding.Judging from the current situation, there will be a lack of technical personnel to complete the new plan.

So Wang Yongjiang's method is an old method.

As early as in the first five-year plan, because of the lack of talents in the country, the government called on overseas students to return to China.Over the past few years, the number of Chinese students studying abroad has continued to increase.Not only the number of government-run overseas students has increased, but self-financed students have also increased rapidly.If it doesn't work, we can only ask these international students to return to the country again.The return of tens of thousands of overseas students can greatly make up for the shortage of technical personnel.

Especially in the previous cooperation between China and Germany, China sent a large number of international students to Germany.Up to now, Germany is the country with the second largest number of Chinese students studying abroad, with about 4000 million people, second only to students studying in Japan.

Allowing these international students to give up their studies and return to China can alleviate a large part of the talent shortage.

"Prime Minister Dai, what do you mean?"

Duan Xun asked Dai Kan.

Because Wang Yongjiang is not just talking about economic issues.Dai Kan nodded and said: "Prime Minister, I agree with Premier Wang. Although from an economic point of view, such aggressive advances will cause many problems and leave many sequelae. But from all aspects, it is imperative to develop industry with all our strength. Wait for us After everything is in place, let’s think about the next issue.”

"kindness."

Duan Xun nodded.

The ideas of Dai Kan and Wang Yongjiang are very simple.

Similar to what the Soviet Union did.It doesn't matter what happens in the future, or what the economy will be like in the future, and whether there is a market or not, let's talk about setting up the industry first.First increase the industrial output and complete the construction of the industrial system.

For the ideas of the two of them, Duan Xun supported them.

Unlike them, Duan Xun knows the direction of history.The contradiction between the old colonial empires and the newly industrialized countries cannot be adjusted, which means that the Second World War is inevitable.If China wants to gain sufficient benefits in World War II, it must have sufficient strength.The strength sufficient for modern warfare is actually industrial strength.

Why was the Soviet Union able to reverse Germany in history?

It relies on industrial strength.China is also a continental country, and if it wants to gain enough benefits, it must be the same as the Soviet Union.

"Okay. The Economic and Development Commission will formulate a loan plan, and then contact banks in Europe and the United States."

"Yes."

540

The concepts of economic problems and economic crisis are completely different.

The so-called problems in the economy mean that it is not easy for everyone to make money.Everyone feels that some problems have appeared in life.But the economic crisis is different. This is something that will set the economy back.

This is especially true in an economic crisis like the Great Depression.

The aftermath of the economic crisis is enormous.The industrial output of the United States and Germany has been reduced by half, and even the United Kingdom, which has the least impact of the crisis, has also reduced its industrial output by about 20%.