Holy Roman Empire

In fact, Austria's agricultural taxation has always been very low, only 5%, which is at the lowest level among the major agricultural product producing countries in continental Europe.

Grain export tariffs are as high as 15%, but the export tariffs on finished grains after refined processing are only 3% to 5%. Adjustments are made according to actual conditions. At the lowest point, 1% was levied.

Affected by this policy, Austria basically exports refined processed grains, and rarely exports them directly.

Other related taxes are also very low, grain transaction tax is 5%, vehicle and ship transportation tax is directly exempted, and various additional taxes are almost non-existent.

Even so, these taxes account for a significant portion of Austria's fiscal revenue, which has declined in recent years and is still a significant amount.

Franz was caught in a calculation. It was easy to invest 1.2 million Aegis operating funds. There would be a one-time investment squeeze. If it didn’t work, he could pay back bank loans or issue bonds. This amount of money is no longer difficult. Austria.

The trouble is that fiscal revenue has decreased and education expenditure has increased. This 3600 million Aegis is not a one-off, but lost forever.

"Temporary exemption" is actually permanent. After the agricultural dividend period is over, it is time for industry to subsidize agriculture.

This means that Austria's fiscal revenue has shrunk by 8.3% directly, and fiscal expenditure has increased by 6.1%.

After hearing the Ministry of Agriculture's plan, Chancellor of the Exchequer Karl frowned. After a moment of silence, he put down the water glass in his hand.

"It's too radical. There is no need to be so extreme in order to destroy the agricultural production systems of European countries. It is enough to lower the international food price to the point where farmers in various countries are unprofitable. There is no need to do it in one step.

In the field of agricultural production, we have an advantage, and the cost of food production is the lowest in continental Europe.We also have a complete industrial supporting system, which can get more profits.

Farmers in European countries have begun to lose money. In fact, domestic farmers still have a certain amount of profit. As long as we drag on, they will not be able to sustain it.

Inferred from economics, the Russians are likely to be the first to fail.Unless the Tsarist government pays to subsidize agriculture, otherwise the high cost will make Russian agricultural products lose their market competitiveness.

As long as we grasp this speed, we don't need to pay too much at all.Now it is only necessary to reduce grain export tariffs and exempt agricultural taxes to withstand the first wave of shocks.

The grains of the Russians have not been exported to the UK yet. Now let us release our grain reserves first, hit the international market and hit the price to the UK-Russian transaction price, and then see if the British will fulfill the contract.

If the contract is not fulfilled, the Russians will be in bad luck.I don't know if the tsarist government's wallet can bear it. The mountains of grain that cannot be sold will have very serious consequences. "

It has to be said that professionals are ruthless enough. It is not the price of food that crushes it, but the finances of the tsarist government.Once there is a large-scale unsalable food, Alexander II will be in trouble.

There is no way, and the farmers have only grain left in their hands.Either the government collects grain directly, and then rots in the warehouse; or it can only be tax-free.

Once the market is full, no one dares to take over no matter how cheap it is.After every major economic crisis broke out, capitalists poured milk into the river because the market was saturated.

Carl's plan now is to crush the British food price first before the Anglo-Russian deal is completed.

Naturally, international food prices cannot be spared, and Austria will also suffer heavy losses.But as long as the British default, the Russians, who have suffered heavy losses, will definitely not let it go. Maybe the London government can't do anything about it, but it is inevitable to withdraw from the pound-gold system.

At that time, even if the tsarist government is unwilling, it can only bite the bullet and join the Aegis-gold system.Losses in the grain market can be recovered in the financial market.

Hols frowned and questioned: "What if the British fulfilled the contract? The benefits brought by currency hegemony are not just a little bit, and they have no reason to give up like this."

Carl smiled frankly: "It's nothing more than that all the grain exporting countries have had a hard time together this year. Even if the international grain price is [-]% off, the impact on Austria, which exports refined grain, will not be that great.

Don't forget that the food processing industry itself still has more than a dozen points of profit, and these enterprises can also share part of the losses.

Generally speaking, the price of raw grain has dropped by 70.00%, and domestic agricultural production can still maintain its capital.That's enough, I don't think Russian farmers can make money at current grain export prices.

The price the government needs to pay is only a part of the grain reserves and a reduction in fiscal revenue of 800-1000 million Aegis.

If it directly impacts the agricultural systems of European countries, using the Russians as scapegoats can only fool ordinary people, and politicians are still clear about it.

If they take countermeasures and artificially raise food import tariffs, what else can cheap food do except increase their fiscal revenue? "

This is a reality, and it is common to overturn the table in front of interests.In order to protect domestic agriculture, it is normal to adopt trade barriers.

Chapter 90 Taking advantage of the fire

In fact, the agricultural crisis has been brewing for a long time, and the great land reclamation movement of the Russians is only a fuse for the outbreak of the agricultural crisis.

After entering the 19th century, agricultural production technology developed very rapidly, especially the promotion of rotational farming technology in Europe, which greatly improved the utilization rate of land.

New production tools are constantly being developed, which ushers in the era of mechanized agriculture, allowing a farmer to cultivate more land.

During this period, agricultural production also began to increase substantially.The grain production of various countries is constantly setting new records. Taking Austria as an example, the growth rate of grain production has exceeded 3% for many years.

The population growth rate during the same period was far behind the increase in food production.The biggest benefit of increasing food production is that most people can fill their stomachs.The increase in related agricultural and sideline products has also enriched the dining table of the people.

In the process of population growth, the agricultural population also increases accordingly.Although with the development of industry, a large number of rural laborers have become workers in the process of urbanization, and the proportion of the agricultural population has been decreasing, but this number is still increasing.

In this context, in order to obtain more income, the people spontaneously started the reclamation movement.The Russians' land reclamation was not the first case, and it was Austria who made a bad start in the first place.

The agrarian revolution in Austria was not perfect, and the nobles still held a large amount of land. In order to meet the farmers' demand for land, the Austrian Balkan Peninsula was developed in this way.

Compared with 1850, the area of ​​cultivated land in Austria has doubled.As the cake grows bigger, the domestic land issue will naturally be solved.

Alexander II's large-scale land reclamation campaign was actually learning from Austria's successful experience. Since farmers need land, they should increase the supply of domestic land.With more land, the contradictions will naturally be resolved.

In this way, excess food production capacity will be unstoppable.In the process of agricultural development in Austria, the Vienna government is still deliberately guiding the public to plant cash crops.

For example, in Lombardy and Venetia, the plan to convert rice into mulberry has also developed a supporting raw silk industry; in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the vineyard plan, raisin and wine industries have also developed.

These planned developments are trying to avoid excess grain production capacity as much as possible.However, this is still a drop in the bucket, and the total grain output is still rising.

This crisis would have erupted a few years earlier had it not been for the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War and the Civil War in the Russian Empire, which devastated Russian agricultural production.

With the loss of a major grain exporter, there has never been a food shortage in Europe. Now that the Russians have returned to the grain export market, the production capacity is even better than before, and the market cannot hold back anyway.

There are only three countries in Europe that are not worried about being impacted by food prices, and the British are naturally one of them, otherwise they would not dare to light the fire.

Britain's industrialization was carried out early, and the industrial population has long surpassed the agricultural population, and the proportion of agriculture in the gross domestic product is already very low.

The small-scale peasant economy collapsed early in the land enclosure movement. The land is relatively concentrated and has a strong ability to resist risks. It is itself the world's largest importer of agricultural products, so it is naturally not afraid of the collapse of food prices.

The other two countries are Belgium and Monaco. You don’t need to know all about the latter. Just look at the size of the country. A small village near the sea has no agriculture at all.

Belgium is also a grain-importing country, the earliest industrial country on the European continent, with a developed industry and low agricultural output value, so there is no need to worry about being affected.

Purely from an economic point of view, after the outbreak of the agricultural crisis, Austria has undoubtedly suffered the greatest loss.As the largest exporter of agricultural products, it is also the most affected by the shock.

Simply counting the agricultural population, Austria's agricultural population still exceeds half of the total population, and there is no problem in saying that Austria is an agricultural country.

However, with the development of the economy, many farmers with relatively little land actually have strong laborers from their families who have migrated to the cities to work.

Both farming and working, they cannot be simply considered farmers, or workers.When counting data, both sides are often counted.

Different provinces have different proportions of agricultural population.In Bohemia, where the economy is more developed, the proportion of the agricultural population is already lower than 40.00%; while in Hungary, where the agriculture is developed, the proportion of the agricultural population is as high as [-]% to [-]%.

Among them, the proportion of migrant workers occupies a considerable part.In some densely populated villages, as high as 90.00% of the young labor force enters the city to work.

The situation in France was even more serious, and the Italian region was seriously dragged down, especially the southern Italian region.If you look at the income of urban and rural areas, you will find that there is not much difference at all, and there may even be situations where the income of urban workers is lower than that of farmers.

This does not mean that agriculture in Italy is developed, it can only prove that the cities in Italy are economically depressed.Although these cities developed relatively early, limited by resources, industrial development in Italy was very difficult.

This is also the main reason why the Russians are closer to the British than to the French.The British can dare to let Russian agricultural products enter without fear of the impact on agriculture, but the French can't.

There is already a large agricultural population in France, plus the economically fragile Italian region, once the food price plummets, the market is hit, and there may be flames everywhere.

"Food prices have a lot to do with the impact on the markets of various countries, and the rebound brought about is bound to be very violent.

Moreover, agriculture is different from industry. Even if there is excess capacity in the market, producers will not make adjustments in a short period of time, and even the output will continue to increase.

We can regulate the domestic market and guide the people to reduce the area of ​​food cultivation, but it does not affect other countries.At least we have no way to reduce the production of Russian farmers, at most we can only bankrupt them.

Defeat the agricultural production markets of various countries and establish a monopoly position in the field of agricultural export.Frankly speaking, I am not optimistic about the success of this plan.

In this world, the area of ​​land suitable for cultivation is too large, while the market for the consumption of agricultural products is too small.

Among other things, as long as you understand the situation in Austrian Africa, you should know that if necessary, Austria's grain production capacity can be doubled several times at any time.

The British, the Portuguese, the Dutch, the French, they also have no shortage of food-producing colonies.Once it is found that we have signs of monopolizing the international grain export market, blocking will inevitably occur. "

Obviously, Prime Minister Felix is ​​a rationalist.Instead of supporting the great plan of the Ministry of Agriculture, it is more inclined to the protracted war proposed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Relying on the advantages in production costs, Austria is destined to occupy an important position in the export market of agricultural products as long as it is slowly worn down.

As for the potential biggest competitor, the Confederate States of America, it is not a threat at all.In the face of interests, plantation owners will naturally make the right choice.

In the original time and space, the United States was not divided. After the Civil War, the United States lost its dominance in the international cotton market, and the grain planting industry developed.

Now the Commonwealth of America is a rich agricultural country, and it continues to occupy the dominant position in the cotton production market.Without being defeated and suppressed, other cotton producing areas have no way to compete with them.

Who would stay full and skip the huge pit of the grain export market without taking huge profits?

That's right, the international grain export market has now become a huge pit.Before the winner is determined, for a long time to come, food producers in various countries will not have an easy life.

If Austria had the unique conditions as the Americans, it would also not be stuck in the grain market.Now the Ministry of Agriculture proposes to crush the agricultural production systems of European countries. In fact, this is also the push of the big nobles.

On the surface, the current agricultural profits can no longer satisfy their appetite, and they want to monopolize the European food supply to obtain greater benefits.

In fact, more still want to abolish that series of taxes and increase their own income.Everyone knows that there is little hope of monopolizing Europe's food supply, but everyone likes tax cuts!

Before that, Franz had met many lobbyists, all of which were to say that the country is already rich and there is no shortage of agricultural income, right...

As the spokesman for the interests of the aristocratic class, Franz naturally couldn't refuse, but as the emperor, he had to consider the interests of the country, so this agricultural economic conference appeared.

The final result was naturally that the government cut some taxes, made up for their losses in this turmoil, and appeased the aristocracy.Not all are exempt when it comes to wallets.

As for the peasant class, they have hitched a ride.Otherwise, how could the bureaucrats propose such policies as tax cuts and food protection prices that cater to their interests?

The reason is not important, as long as the actual benefits can be obtained, it is right.Today, Austrian peasants actually own more land than the nobles, accounting for about 3/4 of the land area of ​​the country.

Unknowingly, the aristocrats became the spokespersons for the political interests of the peasantry.This result was completely beyond Franz's expectations.

Seeing that the meeting was almost over, the radical plan of the Ministry of Agriculture had been rejected by the cabinet, and Franz knew it was time to perform by himself.

"The success rate of monopolizing Europe's food supply is too low, and we must do things that impact the agricultural production systems of various countries, but we should not be too extreme.

The Minister of the Exchequer's suggestion is good. We can start with the Anglo-Russian agreement to see how solid the Anglo-Russian friendship is, and clean up our old food by the way.

The Ministry of Agriculture's plan was taken back and redone to minimize our sense of presence in this turmoil. The reason for the sharp drop in food prices must be caused by the Russians.

Once the agricultural crisis breaks out in full swing, there will definitely be a wave of bankruptcies among farmers in Europe, and the duration may last for a long time.

The Colonial Department should also act immediately to attract people from European countries.Especially the Russian Empire, they will be the hardest hit area of ​​this crisis, and as allies, they have the obligation to help them eliminate hidden dangers. "

In the agricultural crisis in the original time and space, the German region was the hardest hit area. During this period, millions of Germans immigrated to the United States.

Now the situation has changed, Austria has repeatedly recruited immigrants in the German region, and the overpopulation situation has been resolved.

The best proof is that the German Federal Empire has been established for so many years, and the total population has not exceeded 1000 million, and it is completely standing still.

If you look at their immigration data, you will not be surprised.From 1854 to the present, the population of the German Federal Empire has outflowed as high as 350 million.

After running out so much, the local population will naturally not increase.If so many people had stayed in place to reproduce, based on the local birth rate and death rate, the population of the German Federal Empire would have already exceeded 1600 million.

The wool here is almost sheared, and Franz reaches out to the Russian Empire again.Even if it failed in the Russo-Prussian War and lost millions of square kilometers of territory, the Russian Empire still had a population of more than 400 million.

Franz has already played with stimulating births, and the birth rate in many places in Austria is still lower than that of the Russians.If it weren't for Austria's lower death rate, the population growth rate would definitely not be able to keep up with the Russians.

According to the analysis of sociologists, the baby boom will continue to erupt in the Russian Empire in the next few years, and the farmers who have acquired the land will give birth vigorously, and the birth rate is expected to exceed 6%.

This data is not surprising. The average life expectancy of the Russian Empire is short, and the population structure is mainly minors, teenagers, and middle-aged people. There are very few people over 45 years old.

From the data analysis, it is that more than half of the people in the Russian Empire are of childbearing age. Such a high proportion of young and old people, coupled with the lack of recreational activities for the people, go home to make people when they have nothing to do, and the birth rate will naturally be high.

Not only does the Russian Empire have a large population of childbearing age, almost every country has a high proportion of childbearing population, most of which are above 40.00%.

After entering the 19th century, the European population entered a period of rapid growth, and the population growth rate of all countries was very fast. The slowest growth rate was the French, followed by Spain and Italy.

The main reason is still economic, farmers who do not have enough land can no longer afford to live.Not to mention workers, the high number of abandoned babies is enough to explain the problem.

Of course, the government's policies are also an important factor leading to the low population growth rate of the three countries.In this day and age, it cannot be said that these policies are completely wrong.

The domestic economic development has not improved. If the population growth is not restrained, how can the extra people be supported?

The French are an exception. Their problem is not that they can't afford it, but that they are messing around.

Food prices have collapsed, and the Russian Empire, with its high birth rate, must be the hardest hit area. If you stay in the country, families with many children will definitely not be able to support them.

Immigrants at this time relieved pressure on Alexander II.No matter how reluctant the tsarist government was, it was impossible for them to prevent the people from leaving during this period.

In this respect, both sides also get what they need.For the stability-first tsarist government, if internal hidden dangers can be eliminated, the sequelae are not worth mentioning.

Chapter 91 Detonate the Crisis

After the conclusion of the Austrian Agricultural Economics Conference, the Vienna government announced to the outside world: Before the new grain harvest, some strategic grain reserves will be replaced.

This happens almost every year, but it is generally bought when the international food price is low and sold when the price is high.

This time is obviously an exception. Although it is not known how much grain the Vienna government plans to sell, the international grain market has caused violent turmoil.

Compared with the beginning of the year, the price of grain on the international market has dropped by [-]%. Now, affected by the sell-off by the Vienna government, the price of grain has plummeted by four points.

The capitalists on the pallet could no longer hold on, and the Anglo-Russian deal caused them heavy losses, and Austria now made up for it again.

Fortunately, what the Vienna government announced was a replacement, not a simple sale, otherwise the impact would have been even more severe.

At the London Grain Exchange Market, a middle-aged man dressed in Chinese clothes was checking prices in the market as usual.