Holy Roman Empire

Chapter 88 Winter

St. Petersburg, since the failure of Crown Prince Alexandrovich's trip to Austria, the tsarist government has realized that the Russian-Austrian alliance has come to an end.

Freezing three feet is not a day's cold.With the passage of time, the contradictions between Russia and Austria have gradually accumulated.

Previously, the governments of the two countries relied on the covenant to suppress discordant voices, but now they can no longer suppress them.

Russia-Austria relations have changed since Alexander II's accession to the throne.The personal inclinations of the emperor of a monarchy country have an influence on politics that cannot be underestimated.

After the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War, Austria did not fully support the Russians. Apart from interests, it was more dissatisfied with the Tsarist government.

No big country is willing to be someone else's younger brother, especially after the balance of power between the two sides changes.The initial game between Russia and Austria was actually a battle for the dominance of the alliance.

Alexander II's approach was correct, but the bureaucracy of the tsarist government failed to live up to expectations and lost the Prussian-Prussian War. The Russian Empire has since turned from prosperity to decline and lost the dominance of the alliance.

If the Tsarist government is willing to admit defeat, then the matter will be over, and the Russian-Austrian alliance is still the most important political power group in Europe.

Obviously this is impossible, the arrogance of the Russian Empire cannot be defeated in one battle.Looking at the long history of the Russian Empire, times worse than the present have passed. How could the Tsar really give up his European hegemony?

Franz had little interest in European hegemony, but Austria's geographical location had already been determined, and it was impossible to avoid it in the struggle for European hegemony.

The size of Austria is there, and no one would believe it even if they say they are not interested.That being the case, it can only bite the bullet.It is against this background that France and Austria now jointly carve up European hegemony.

For the tsarist government, the disintegration of the Russia-Austria alliance was indeed a blow, but the alliance between the two countries still had a few years to expire, and there was no threat in the short term.

The most important thing now is to find a benefactor who is willing to pay in time, otherwise Alexander II's reforms will not continue.

The most ideal choice is of course Austria. The tsarist government can use foreign debt to tie the two countries closer.Now the Vienna government dares to abandon the Russia-Austria alliance, it is because they do not owe enough.

If the debt owed by the Tsarist government to Austria is not the current 1.83 million Aegis, but 18.3 billion Aegis, no matter how it is estimated, the Vienna government will have to hold on.

According to the current situation, after the Russian-Austrian alliance expires, the debt owed by the tsarist government will have to be repaid.

This is not something that Alexander II can delay. The Austrians just take a cut from the Russian tariffs, and there are more than 1000 two million Aegis every year.

The higher the tariff set by the Tsarist government, the faster the repayment.Coupled with some mineral resources in kind, Russia can still repay more than 90.00% of the debt payable every year.

Mortgage loans are not allowed to default on Alexander II.Otherwise, Russia and Austria will immediately turn their faces. When Austria closes the trade channel between the two countries, Russia will soon have an economic crisis.

There is no way, it is determined by geographical location.If Austria blocks the door, more than 70.00% of Russia's exports will be finished.

If the grain in Ukraine does not go through the Dardanelles, it cannot be transported by land to St. Petersburg, and then shipped for export, right?

According to the current international situation, if Russia and Austria turned their faces, the Russian Empire would be completely blocked.Austria encouraged behind it and sponsored two ironclad ships, and Prussia dared to block the Baltic Sea.

Now is the age of ironclad ships, and the pile of broken ships in the Russian Navy can be dismantled and used as firewood.Most of them are wooden warships that have not been updated for more than 20 years. What else do you want?

It's not that Alexander II didn't pay much attention to the navy, and didn't know that the warships needed to be replaced. The government really didn't have money in its pocket.Since the outbreak of the Near East War, the finances of the Tsarist government have never been better.

Pau is not worried about getting closer to Alexander II. Although the Kingdom of Prussia has given up the strategy of unifying the German region, Austria has not yet. This is a hurdle that cannot be overcome.

Alexander II asked in a relationship: "How is the negotiation with the British, are they willing to provide us with loans?"

This loan was extraordinary, and the Russians paid it back with grain.If the British agree to issue this loan, the Tsarist government will send 120 million tons of wheat, 40 tons of corn, and 30 tons of barley to England every year...

It seems to be a loan, but in fact it is better to say that it is grain export.It's just that in the international agricultural product market, the competitiveness of Russian agricultural products is too low.

If the low-price dumping is directly carried out, then the international grain price will be driven down, and the relatively high cost of planting Russian agricultural products will become unprofitable.

In order to avoid the worst situation, Russian economists have proposed a loan bundle sale to contract a country’s grain imports at a price lower than the international market.

The reduced profit is regarded as the property cost of the loan.It is better than fighting a price war with competitors and losing money in the end.

"Your Majesty, the British demand that the amount of loans be reduced by half, and the price of grain compensation be reduced by one-fifth, which is equivalent to 70% of the current international grain export price."

Foreign Minister Clarence Ivanov's answer made Alexander II's face change drastically. Grain export is not a huge profiteering industry. If it is discounted by [-]%, it will not even cover the cost.

Alexander II asked unwillingly: "What if we agree to join the free trade system and peg the ruble to the pound?"

Clarence Ivanov replied: "If that is the case, there is no problem with the loan, but the price of food is still out of the question.

British grain merchants believe that the current international grain price is too high and will drop sharply in the near future, insisting on accepting only [-]% off the current market price. "

If the current market price is used, the total value of the agricultural products that Russia plans to send to the UK is as high as 3800 million pounds. If there is a 2660% discount, it will only be 1140 million pounds, and the price difference in the middle is as high as [-] million pounds.

Alexandrovich said with a livid face: "The British are blackmailing, we absolutely cannot accept such conditions!

According to the price of [-]% off the market price, not only will we not be able to make a profit through grain export, but we will lose a lot of money.

Unless the purchase price of grain is further reduced, the domestic grain price is already very low, and if the price of grain is lowered, the people will lose money. "

Grain is a comprehensive commodity, and transportation has always been a big problem.Transportation in the Russian Empire was inconvenient and transportation costs were high, and these costs had to be taken into account.

Usually, this part of the cost falls on the farmers who produce the food in the end. Now if they export at [-]% off the market price and then fall on the farmers, they will have to go bankrupt.

The peasantry is the largest support group for the tsar, which is the cornerstone of the rule. If they are all forced to go bankrupt, the rule of the tsarist government will be unstable.

Alexander II sighed, shook his head and said: "The collapse of international food prices has become a foregone conclusion, and the judgment of the British is not wrong.

The international market is so big, and we have increased grain production so much, once it is put on the market, international grain prices will collapse.

To put it bluntly, if all of Russia's surplus grain can be shipped out, even if other grain exporting countries stop exporting, there will be no grain panic in Europe. "

This is the aftermath of the great wasteland reclamation. Although the domestic land problem has been solved, the overcapacity of grain has also become a serious social problem.

What is even more tragic is that the farmers who have just acquired the land are highly motivated to produce grain, and Russia's grain production is still rising.

With the fall of grain prices, the Russian grain wine industry began to flourish.But this kind of high-end wine cannot be consumed by ordinary people at all, and the market is very limited.It is impossible to rely on the wine industry to consume excess grain production capacity.

Alexandrovich thought for a while and said, "Then guide the farmers to plant commercial crops, and we will plant whatever is lacking in the market.

If domestic grain production is not reduced, the international grain market will explode sooner or later.As far as I know, the Vienna government has deliberately abolished the agricultural tax.

Their food production costs are already lower than ours, and they have a complete supporting industrial processing chain, so their ability to resist risks must be stronger than ours.If a price war breaks out, there may be millions of bankrupt people in China every year. "

Alexander II nodded. He did not suspect that Alexandrovich was exaggerating.This is already a fact. Except for Ukraine, the cost of grain production in other lands in Russia is relatively high.

Even in Ukraine, due to insufficient development and utilization, the agricultural production technology here is backward.It is obviously black land, but the grain yield per mu is still not as good as that of Austria.

This is the sequelae of insufficient market. In any case, the total population of the European continent is less than [-] million, and the food produced by each country meets most of the demand.

If you want to expand the grain export market, the only way is to hit the market with low-priced grain first and crush the agricultural production of various countries.

This is what Alexander II planned at the beginning. As long as the agriculture of various countries is destroyed, Russia will control the lifeline of the European continent.

The plan was a good plan, the only problem was that the tsarist government did not have enough money.The strength of the competitors is too strong, and dumping at low prices, while crushing the agriculture of various countries, may also crush the Russian agriculture.

In fact, not only Alexander II had this plan, Franz also made a similar plan, but he gave up in the end.

There is no way, now is the colonial era, which big power lacks a grain-producing land?The local food production is insufficient, can't the colonies find a way?

If you can't achieve monopoly, if you play low-price dumping, it will be difficult for your wallet.Now agriculture is still making money, and there is absolutely no need to make no profit at all.

Alexander II felt a little depressed, and said earnestly: "It is necessary to reduce food production capacity and replant commercial crops, but this cannot be done overnight. Food planting is relatively simple, and farmers are used to it.

To change this traditional planting model, we must learn from Austria.Alexandrovitch, you have also been to Austria, and you should know how well-developed their agriculture is.Where is the gap, have you found it? "

Alexandrovich fell into deep thought. He didn't stay in Austria for too long, and his understanding was only limited to Vienna, most of the time through newspapers.

"There should be climate, transportation, agricultural technology, and supporting processing industries. We have no way to make up for the gap in climate, and we can slowly catch up with the last three points."

Alexander II nodded and said: "Since that's the case, then we will settle for this loss.

If we do not reach an agreement with the British now, I am afraid that after the autumn harvest in a few months, our grain will not even be able to sell at [-]% off the current market price.

If large-scale natural disasters do not occur, this year is destined to be a severe agricultural winter when our bumper grain harvest enters the international market, and a large number of agricultural products will be unsalable by then.

Anyway, you will lose money at that time, so it is better to get the loan first.At that time, we can also reduce or exempt agricultural taxes and reduce farmers' losses.

Only when the railway is repaired and the domestic transportation problems are solved, the Russian Empire will have a future. Let the British be proud now!

If it were not for the purpose of attacking Austria, perhaps the British would not even open this condition.They don't lack this batch of cheap grain, and the grain processing industry in the UK is not very developed.

If the London government does not give preferential policies, these grain merchants will not invest in the agricultural product processing industry. After all, Austria is the overlord in this field, and they have no advantage. "

……

Chapter 89 Storm Rises

On March 1872, 3, Britain and Russia signed the "British-Russian Bilateral Trade Agreement", "British-Russian Grain Mortgage Agreement", "British-Russian Financial Mutual Trust Agreement"...

In addition to not forming an alliance, it has become a fact that the tsarist government is economically closer to the British.

According to the treaty, the Russians were already a member of the pound-gold system, and the international currency hegemony of the pound was officially established.

As a price, the British will provide the Tsarist government with an interest-free loan of 1.5 million pounds in the next five years, and the Russians will use all agricultural products to repay the debt.

Anyone with a discerning eye knows that the so-called loan is just an excuse.The loans issued every year are exactly equivalent to the agricultural products exported by the Russians, which is essentially a huge order contract.

It's just that the prices of these agricultural products from Russia are lower, and the London government has exempted import duties.Through low prices, it has seized the markets of other countries that export agricultural products to the UK.

The first to bear the brunt is Austria. As the world's largest exporter of agricultural products, Austria's losses are undoubtedly the greatest.60.00% of the total agricultural products imported by the British each year come from Austria, and now this market can almost be declared non-existent.

"Free trade", just listen to it, if it is true, it will be over.The British people shouted earth-shattering slogans, which involved specific interests, but they were decisively thrown aside.

If Austria wants to keep its market in the UK, the price of agricultural products must be cut in half at least now to survive the competition.

Affected by the Anglo-Russian treaty, the international agricultural product market began to plummet in April.The capitalists have destocked and sold them to accumulate cash flow, for fear that they will be frozen to death in the next cold winter of agricultural products.

As the protagonist at the center of the vortex, Franz was not so nervous.Although I didn't expect the British to make a sudden move, the Vienna government had already expected the impact on the international agricultural product market.

At the last annual work conference, the Vienna government formulated a plan to reduce grain production, mainly focusing on wheat, corn, and beans, which are agricultural products with relatively large production capacity by the Russians.

At the Vienna Palace, at the Special Economic Conference on Agriculture, Franz took up the baton and drew a curve on the world map.

"The Russians are coming fiercely, and the British are adding fuel to the flames. The agricultural winter has come. This is a challenge for Austria. We must do everything possible. Hals, first talk about the plan of the Ministry of Agriculture."

Secretary of Agriculture Hals stood up from his seat, straightened his clothes, and put on a serious and nervous expression. Obviously, this topic is very heavy.

"Since two years ago, the Ministry of Agriculture has been preparing for the return of Russian agricultural products to the international market.

To this end, we have adopted a variety of measures, including adjusting the industrial structure of agricultural products, reducing the output of staple food, cleaning up stocks, and developing animal husbandry, etc.

These measures can only reduce our losses, but cannot cure the problem from the source.The international agricultural product market is so big, it is impossible for us to cut production capacity to get through the crisis.

The agricultural winter broke out, and the agriculture of all countries is not feeling well. There is no need for us to pay the bill.

The price collapse in the agricultural product market this time was mainly caused by the Russians. In this case, we will push the boat along and make the crisis more violent.

The Ministry of Agriculture plans to halve the price of international food in the next three years, which will destroy the agricultural production of European countries.

Although Russia's agricultural production capacity is large, they lack the ability to resist risks.The tsarist government's financial resources were limited, and it was impossible to provide security for the peasants.

Once the price of grain collapses, it will inevitably lead to a wave of bankruptcies for farmers.If we are lucky, we can also severely damage the Russian agricultural production system.

To compensate for the losses of domestic farmers, the Ministry of Agriculture proposed suspending the collection of agricultural taxes, grain transaction taxes, agricultural export duties, and prohibiting churches from collecting tithes.At the same time, a minimum guaranteed price of grain is set to ensure that farmers will not lose money. "

The destruction of the agricultural production systems of European countries, in addition to worrying about being exploited by others, is more because the Vienna government does not want to pull this hatred.

Austria has won the largest share of the international grain export market. Anyway, it has taken the biggest profit. Why do things have to be done?

It's easy to handle now, the ones who jump out are the Russians, and if you just spread the word, you can blame the tsarist government and slander the British by the way.Anyway, their reputation is already rotten, and they don't care about drawing a lot of hatred.

The Anglo-Russian agreement is the best evidence. They directly discounted the grain export price by [-]% and exempted tariffs.The governments of the two countries have directly participated in the trade, undermining the free trade system, which is the root cause of the food production of all European countries losing money together.

Proper low-price dumping, no one can wash it off.If someone takes the lead in lowering prices, those who follow suit will be inconspicuous. If a price war breaks out accidentally and the price is lowered, there is no way around it.

Britain and Russia joined forces to crack down on Austrian grain exports. Instead of making domestic grain unsalable, it is better to hit the lowest price.

Once the international grain price is cut in half, I don't know if the British grain merchants will fulfill the contract. I don't like this kind of loss-making business.In case the British break the contract, there will be a good show at that time.

It seems that it is only impacting the food production systems of various countries, but in fact it is also undermining the closeness of Britain and Russia.Nothing can disintegrate an alliance more than a conflict of interest.

Moreover, Britain and Russia are not allies.It is only for the benefit that they get closer. Once the conflict of interests between the two parties exceeds the benefits brought by the partnership, it will be difficult not to part ways.

Everyone fell into deep thought and began to digest what Hals had just said.

"Having food prices halved, how much impact will it have on the country? Will it cause a large number of farmers to go bankrupt? Will it involve the entire agricultural product system? How much money will it need to invest?"

It was Prime Minister Felix who asked the question. Agriculture has always been a pillar industry in Austria, so the Vienna government can't help but ignore it.If the game crashes, the sequelae will be very serious.

"Your Excellency, please rest assured. Our Ministry of Agriculture has conducted a special assessment. After the suspension of the collection of agricultural tax, tithe tax, grain transaction tax and grain export tariffs, international grain prices have been cut in half, and the impact on the country has been minimized.

Responding to the grain purchase market, the grain purchase price will drop by about 20.00%.The Ministry of Agriculture will conduct supervision, and if the market turbulence exceeds this range, we will directly intervene in the acquisition.

Since the cost of food production varies from place to place, it cannot be generalized.In the Wallachia Plain with better natural conditions, there are even small profits.And some provinces with poor natural conditions may lose money.

Farmers going bankrupt will definitely happen, and with the development of the times, the smallholder economy will inevitably be destroyed. The cost of this primitive mode of production is too high to compete with mechanized farms.

The per capita land area of ​​domestic farmers is relatively high. Usually, when everyone plants a variety of crops in parallel, they have a certain ability to resist risks. Large-scale farmer bankruptcies will not break out in Austria.

To complete this plan, the required investment is still relatively large, at least 1.2 million Aegis, and at the same time, about 2100 million Aegis will be reduced each year in terms of finance, and the government needs to fill in the hole of another 1500 million Aegis in education. "

In the end, the problem is still a word of money.Once this plan is launched, the era of relying on agriculture to supplement industry and education will be over.