Harry Potter Morning Light

In the Song Dynasty, there was a famous poet Ouyang Xiu. He wrote such an argumentative essay called Clique Theory. This is how he understood crony parties:

The remarks about cronies have existed since ancient times. I just hope that the monarch can distinguish whether they are gentlemen or villains.

It is a natural law that gentlemen and gentlemen form cliques because of the same interests, while villains form cliques because of the same interests. But the minister thinks: villains do not have cliques, only gentlemen do. What is the reason? What villains love and covet are salaries and money. When they have the same interests, it is false to collude with each other temporarily and become cronies; when they see the benefits and scramble to be the first, or when the benefits are exhausted and the friendship is indifferent, they will turn around and kill each other, even brothers and relatives. will not protect each other. Therefore, it is also false to say that villains have no cronies, and that they form cronies temporarily. This is not the case with gentlemen: what they uphold is morality, what they perform is loyalty, and what they cherish is reputation. Use these to improve self-cultivation, then like-minded people can benefit each other. Use these to do things for the country, then the same point of view can move forward together. Consistently, this is the friend of a gentleman. Therefore, as a monarch, as long as he can repel the false friends of the villain and use the true friends of the gentleman, then the world can be stable.

It is difficult for Pomona to describe in words what it is like for the unspoken Severus to have a good conversation with others. This is different from Quirrell flattering and flattering words, but everyone discussing the world with style. The situation, as if everyone is a man of insight.

London is not only a financial city, but also a political center. Chang'an a thousand years ago, BJ a thousand years later, Washington two hundred years later, New York two hundred years later, men are like this, they like to discuss "world affairs", as if they don't talk about it The topic seems to be inexperienced.

They look a lot like "friends", and the "clique" is the most well-informed, and a lot of "insider information" has begun to spread from the upper echelon. After each general election, it is a rule that the average real estate price rises, because the public will The elected parties are confident and optimistic about the economic outlook.

"New officials take office with three fires", and various measures and reforms will also be implemented, but it is not known how long this situation will last.

Compared with the speculative market in the United States, British real estate fluctuates very little. It is only because Britain does not use the "permanent position" system like the United States, and because "capital is the highest power in Britain."

The separation of powers is as dazzling as the sun god. Britain is a cabinet system. Parliament has the "right to overthrow the cabinet", and the cabinet also has the "right to dissolve the parliament". Enforcing the Corn Laws from 1846 to "protect" British farmers and landowners from competition from imported corn from cheaper foreign countries. It stipulates that the average price of domestically produced grains can only be imported when the average price reaches or exceeds a certain limit. Its purpose is to safeguard the interests of the land aristocracy. Even after the reform of the Parliament in 1832, the bourgeois Whig Party formed a cabinet, and the Corn Laws were still not abolished. The capitalists only weakened the conservative forces of the aristocracy in a peaceful way. In that era, "agriculture was the source of all wealth." Capital is inconsistent with the supreme power.

The Chinese thought that closing the door to the outside world caused the failure of the Opium War. In fact, closing the door to the outside world was beneficial to trade protection from a certain point of view, and it also made Britain ignorant of China's situation.

According to relevant British laws, all bills passed by Parliament will be recorded on parchment scrolls and submitted to the Parliamentary Archives for permanent preservation.

"Starting from April 7, 1840, the House of Commons of the British Parliament...after three days of debate, passed the proposal of the cabinet with a narrow majority of 271 votes to 262 votes." This is the mainstream in China about the outbreak of the Sino-British Opium War in 1840 In my view, it was the British Parliament that decided the outbreak of war. However, the original British parliamentary archives refuted this claim.

On April 9, 1840, the British Parliament passed the Opium War against China with a vote of 271 to 262. It was replaced by a motion of no confidence in the British government that was rejected with 271 votes against and 262 votes in favor. .

According to the minutes of the meeting, on April 7, 1840, the parliamentary opposition Tory Party proposed a vote of no confidence in the British government based on the multiple diplomatic mistakes of the Whigs and then British Foreign Secretary Henry Temple. The Tories accused Palmerston of lacking foresight and inconsideration in China policy, failing to give the then British Commercial Supervisor Elliot proper instructions or available powers, and failing to control the illegal opium trade. William Gladstone, a member of the Tory Party and the initiator of the no-confidence vote, pointed out in the debate that one-sixth of the fiscal revenue of the United Kingdom and India depends on trade with China, so China is very important. He pointed out that the British knew too little about China, and it was only based on their knowledge of a port. "Isn't it wiser to trade with such a nation than to argue with them?"

The entire debate lasted for three days, but before this parliamentary debate, the cabinet had already ordered the Indian fleet to reinforce China and organize the Eastern Expeditionary Force. During the parliamentary debate, the Yilu Fleet was already on its way to China. The British Parliament did not approve the military appropriation for the Chinese Expeditionary Force until July 27, 1840, after the outbreak of the war. Before the parliament agreed to appropriate the funds, the Indian and Chinese Association paid the military expenses of the expeditionary force. This association has 109 large companies with close interests in India and China, including giants in import and export trade, shipping, and finance. The chairman of the association is the Whig member of the House of Commons, Rabend. This association often maintains contacts with relevant ministries, especially the Foreign Office, providing intelligence and instigating war. When the news of Lin Zexu ordering foreign businessmen to hand over cigarettes reached London, the British "bourgeoisie" set off a clamor for war, and the landlords headed by the Tory Party did not support the war.

Not because they were peace-loving, but because they wanted to tear the Whigs off, William Lamb stepped down in August 1841 and was replaced by Robert Peel, who reformed British penal law during his tenure as Home Secretary, Formed London's first trained police force, which led to the nickname "Bobby".

After the passage of the reform law in 1832, the conservatives were hit hard in the subsequent general elections. Although Peel himself won, his Conservative Party is down to just over 100 MPs.

The young Whig Party was flexible, extreme, and full of adventurism. In recent years, Britain has been very turbulent. It may indeed be that too many reforms have been carried out in a short period of time. It is almost a year to change one, or even two prime ministers. William IV's decision to slow down reforms, Peel's income tax, reorganization of the Bank of England, reforms in Ireland, was all right, but when the Irish famine broke out, his support for lowering import duties and the repeal of the Corn Laws led to the downfall of his cabinet.

A party that is center-left or center-right according to game theory has a high chance of winning an election, but when "extreme conditions" arise, the odds for centrists are not so high.

For example, a straight man likes military uniforms, but he can't accept androgynous clothes, and he also rejects homosexuality. It doesn't matter when he is alone, when they form a group, he will laugh at boys who are too gentle, Hufflepuff boys are often bullied by bad Slytherin boys, and they will also look like they don't want to be bullied. Very "manly", together with the rejection of homosexuality.

An outbreak of late blight in Ireland in 1845 frustrated Peale's efforts to ease the Irish problem. Ireland's potato harvest has failed, leaving residents without a staple food. Some 3 million poor people who otherwise depend on potatoes for a living need cheap food imports. Peale called for the abolition of the grain import tax on the grounds that it unhelpfully increased grain imports to solve the crisis in Ireland, Richard Cobden also demanded the repeal of the grain import tax

In 1846 Peel introduced three bills to Parliament. The first bill plans to completely abolish the grain import tax after three years. The second bill is to lower all tariffs. The third bill was a coercive measure to protect property and life in Ireland. The first two bills were passed and the third was opposed by a coalition of tax users, extremists, Whigs and Irish.

The fact that politics, in Peale's view, is essentially the exercise of morality sets him apart from Wellington, Melbourne, and Palmerston.

Extreme individualism is the thought and behavior of taking extreme measures at all costs in order to achieve certain goals of individuals or a small group of people.

People are selfish, but extreme individualism is absolutely harmless.

After the Irish famine, there was a financial panic, and grain purchases from Russia and the United States led to a massive outflow of gold. As a result, in 1847 there was a wave of runs on deposits from banks.

The Prime Minister who succeeded Peel, Lord John, knew nothing about finances. He and Prince Albert called Peel, and Peel explained to them the role of the Banking Act. Huge demonstration. Sir George Gray, Home Secretary, was composed at this critical moment. Wellington promised to give the Chartists ample opportunity to abscond. The authorities recruited 170,000 police officers, and the army remained loyal to the government.

Before the Second Opium War, the situation in Britain was already very bad. Launching a war abroad could divert internal conflicts. The time difference between the two wars was 20 years. At that time, the Qing Dynasty was slow and dull, like a person who had just woken up from a big dream, and did not form an effective coping strategy. The response of the British government was also very slow. If a hospital was to be built, it might take 7 years to approve the decision, but the young The bourgeoisie is not only flexible but also understands the situation of the Qing Dynasty. Just like the current overseas Chinese and gangsters, they have penetrated into all classes in Britain and the United States. Whether they are black or white, the whole world knows that Chinese people can do business and are very rich , in this country where capital is the highest power, who would ignore the opinions of the Chinese?

Every country has infighting. Japan's economic collapse in the 1990s was related to the infighting between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Japan. This is what the men at Pomona are talking about now.

Mie Noyasu wanted to reform the domestic economy, but was obstructed by conservatives.

The Ministry of Finance was the central government financial institution that existed in Japan from the Meiji Restoration until 2000. The "advanced thinking" of the Meiji Restoration period was very outdated in the 20th century. Officials in the Ministry of Finance thought that they could control the economy by controlling interest rates.

The "Princes of the Yen" of the Bank of Japan want to stand on their own and no longer be subject to the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance, but that is not so easy to do.

The Plaza Accord, whether Japan agreed to increase the exchange rate on its own initiative or was forced by the Americans, is an out-and-out act of treason, and it will damage domestic enterprises with export trade. In the past, they shouted "respect the king and fight against barbarians" and dared to carry out assassinations in Kyoto. There are no reformers, only a bunch of obedient bureaucrats left.

After the real estate bubble burst, the Ministry of Finance once planned to adjust the exchange rate to save the domestic economy, that is, let the yen depreciate, but at that time the yen had already been internationalized, Britain and the United States would not sit back and watch Japan's economic rise again, and China also took advantage of this time To avenge one arrow, the market quickly digested how many yen Japan sold. The Ministry of Finance not only did not depreciate the yen, but even allowed the yen to appreciate. This is even more detrimental to the domestic economy. That "sniper war" There is the "joint assistance" of Chinese businessmen in London.

It is far from enough to provoke billions of dollars in the foreign exchange market, but after adding up, even a drop of water will become a vast ocean.

The competition between the Central Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance ended with the central bank winning. The Ministry of Finance was finally disbanded and the central bank became independent. However, after experiencing great ups and downs, ordinary Japanese can no longer take such big risks, and no longer consume and borrow easily. invested.

No matter how the Japanese government stimulates consumption in the future, adjusting interest rates will not be effective. After all, everyone has to save money for their old age, but sometimes you can find bundles of cash in the trash can, which are saved by the elderly. But he died alone in the house, and the body was found after a few weeks when it stinks. The people who came to collect the body had no idea how much money was hidden in his belongings, so they disposed of it as garbage.

When Mie Noyasu was competing with the Japanese government, he didn't care what ordinary people thought at all. He finally achieved his personal goal, but sacrificed the interests of ordinary people.

When he took office, he raised interest rates and intentionally left a bubble to the public because of the long-term low interest rates. The bubble caused inequality between the rich and the poor, which allowed him to gain support from public opinion.

The Ministry of Finance raised rates twice before he took office, and raising rates again would be suicide, so the Ministry of Finance limited window guidance, especially real estate loans, and began to collect real estate taxes, which accelerated the bursting of the bubble, and there was no such thing as real estate" In 1991, the growth rate of Japan's currency fell off a cliff, and the money lent by banks became bad debts that could not be recovered. The Japanese went from being used to spending money lavishly to saving food and clothing in an instant. The gap was too great, and many people couldn't stand it. The suicide rate rose, and a large number of young and middle-aged people died.

This group of people is the "engine" of the Japanese economy. Without them, Japan will rely on the elderly and children to promote domestic demand, but the children have become "Heisei waste", and the elderly have no strength.

If many people pay off bad debts together, it will not be so difficult to pay back, but if there are many bad debts and a small population, it will be more difficult to pay back. The interest rate is only the cost of money, and everything is in vain without loans. Mie Noyasu obeyed the order of the Ministry of Finance to cut interest rates, but the right to issue the base currency is still in the hands of the central bank. When a crisis occurs, it is often accompanied by deflation. If the money is lost, it will cause a series of domino effects. At this time, the rescue method is quantitative easing. By purchasing medium and long-term bonds such as treasury bonds, the base money supply will be increased, and a large amount of liquidity will be injected into the market.

But Mie Yeyasu didn't do that.

Structural reforms may cause temporary deflation, but can later lead to a more efficient economy.

Of course the central bank can print money, but if it does so, everyone will have no motivation to reform. The Japanese have such a character of killing themselves if they fail, which makes people really unbearable. The Ministry of Finance lowered interest rates to save the market because they have no money to borrow. But when the smoke disappeared, the public lost trust in the Ministry of Finance. In the mid-to-late 1990s, bribery scandals involving the Ministry of Finance often broke out in the media. The Ministry of Tibet, in a passive situation, had no choice but to submit. In 2000, it was dismantled.

In other words, it was a fight between gods and fish in the pond, and ordinary people did nothing, but became a stepping stone for some people to reach the top.

Pomona could understand what they were saying, but she really didn't want to participate in their conversation, so she just ate her food.

Compared with capitalist society, New China is a workers' political party, and capital is not the supreme power.

This time, the people in the embassy still expressed their support for the demonstration in Chinatown in London: If the British government and real estate developers put forward unreasonable conditions for overseas Chinese, then the UK will lose part of its trade.

The world is so big, there are so many suppliers, and British industrial products can also be produced in Japan, so why bother to look far away?

It is not a hundred years ago now, and the Muggle prime minister has already sent troops to Iraq in disregard of public opinion. If you want to "kill first and play later" as in the Opium War, it may be difficult to do so in the information age.

Furthermore, can Britain beat China?

Pomona peeked at the young man next to Mr. Lin during the meal. Asians generally looked young, and he was about the same age as Harry when he participated in the Battle of Hogwarts.

It's just that under this kind of hearing and seeing, it is very difficult for him to become an ordinary person.

A parent who discusses what to eat next meal cannot teach a son who is a genius. The topic of the Lin family's dinner table is the Japanese financial crisis and the game between the central bank and the government.

However, it is those ordinary people who drive the development of the times.

Even if they are destined to be stepping stones, they can choose whose stepping stones to be.

To this day, people still miss Robert Peel. Mie Noyasu, who once received rave reviews, is called "the ghost of Heisei".

Nature exists, the gate of morality.

The lips are dead and the teeth are cold.

The king of Qi just didn't understand this truth in the battle of Changping, even if there was Jixia Academy, he lost the world.

Facing that potential danger, Pomona did not make a sound.

As Zhang Tao said, the East and the West are like the Bengal Tigers and the Boys Pi, and neither can live without them.

So she put all her energy on the delicious food on the table. Anyway, she is a Hufflepuff who only knows how to eat, and she is also a woman. Who cares what she thinks?

I hope that the United Nations will not classify China as an epidemic-affected country this time. The ancestors bless you, and everyone will get through this safely. I also hope that everyone will stop discriminating against Wuhan people. Not everyone is infected. Let's calm down and get through this catastrophe. By the way, has anyone noticed the exchange rate?