I really just want to be a scholar

Chapter 866: Then their research on El Niño must be far ahead of the world!
Early in the morning of May 5, before it was dark, a large number of media reporters gathered outside the Xiaguo Meteorological Center. Many staff who entered the meteorological building were stopped by reporters for interviews.

The reporters had only one interview topic - "Do you think there will be an El Niño phenomenon at noon today?"

The emergence of a global climate phenomenon will definitely not pop up out of thin air at a certain moment, but there will be certain signs and clues early on.

As the largest meteorological monitoring center and the most authoritative meteorological release department in Xia State, the Xiaguo Meteorological Center has naturally become the first choice for the media to obtain first-hand news.

However, everyone at the Xiaguo Meteorological Center seemed to have made an appointment in advance. Everyone remained silent when faced with reporters' questions, and only responded uniformly: "We are not aware of the latest situation. Please refer to the information officially announced on our Meteorological Center website." .”

Reporters are quite helpless about this. In fact, they also know that whether the El Niño phenomenon will occur at noon on May 5 has become the focus of public attention across the country and even the world. Who dares to speak casually?
It’s fine if you’re right, but if you’re wrong, won’t you be sprayed into a sieve?

Weather forecasts are ever-changing, and unless there is clear evidence that El Niño is officially occurring, any specious signs may be reversed.

What's more, this also concerns Qin Ke and Ning Qingyun, two young academicians with high reputations among the people. Everyone holds the idea that doing more is worse than doing less, so naturally they are reluctant to speak.

However, this news has attracted too much attention. Any news headlines related to it have a huge increase in clicks. No one in the media wants to miss such a huge traffic. Since the most authoritative Xia State Meteorological Center in Xia State does not publish any The media will try their best to invite experts in the industry to conduct live broadcasts and analysis.

Jiangsu Province's Jinling Satellite TV invited Zeng Yixiang, a famous professor from the School of Atmospheric Sciences of Nanjing University, to the live broadcast room of "Focus News Interview". The content of the conversation was naturally the most explosive topic at the moment - the El Niño phenomenon.

This is a talk show that is broadcast live on TV and online at the same time. In front of the camera, the female host shows a professional smile and says:

"Today we are fortunate to invite Professor Zeng Yixiang, a well-known meteorological expert in the city, to explain to us the scientific knowledge of the El Niño phenomenon. Professor Zeng Yixiang is a doctoral supervisor in meteorology at NTU and a special consultant of our city's meteorological center. He has been engaged in El Niño phenomenon research for more than 25 years. He is my country’s top expert in this field. Now I would like to invite Professor Zeng Yixiang! Everyone welcomes him with applause!”

Jinling Satellite TV is quite famous in China. This program attracted a large number of viewers. The number of people in the online live broadcast room continued to increase, and soon exceeded 100 million.

The female host was secretly happy about the popularity. She smiled and said to Professor Zeng Yixiang: "Next, let's ask Professor Zeng to start teaching us what El Niño is. I believe that many in the audience don't know much about this concept."

Professor Zeng Yixiang is about 50 years old. He has a plump figure and a round face. He has a friendly smile. He chuckled:
"The so-called El Niño phenomenon, also known as the El Niño current, is a global climate phenomenon caused by the loss of balance in the interaction between the ocean and the environment in the Pacific equatorial zone on a large scale. It is also the result of the eastward movement of the Walker circulation. In the past years , the El Niño phenomenon has brought violent rainstorms and flooding rivers, causing serious economic losses in coastal areas, and can also lead to abnormal tropicalization of the ocean, greatly damaging the ecological balance..."

After he kept talking eloquently and it seemed that he could talk for at least ten more minutes, the female host hurriedly found an opportunity and interrupted with a smile: "Excuse me, Professor Zeng, what are the consequences of the El Niño phenomenon on the Internet? There is a lot of controversy about rain, floods, or high temperatures and drought, what do you think about this?”

"Theoretically speaking, El Niño will indeed bring about climate changes. For example, areas that are usually dry and have little rainfall may experience floods, and areas with high rainfall may experience droughts. The opinions on the Internet are all possible..."

Seeing that Professor Zeng was extremely slick and refused to give an accurate answer, the host became a little anxious. Who in the audience wants to hear this?

At this time, many viewers have made negative comments in the comment area of ​​the live broadcast room:

[You talk nonsense, don’t you even dare to have a clear point of view? 】

[After talking for a long time, there is no useful information at all. I can find these contents at any time. Why do I still need to listen to him? 】

[It’s gone, it’s gone, it’s boring. 】

The host gritted his teeth and asked directly: "Professor Zeng, do you think it is possible that most countries in the northern hemisphere will continue to experience high temperatures and droughts?"

"Judging from past data records, such a situation has never occurred. It is mainly caused by different disasters in different countries, including droughts and floods. However, this possibility cannot be completely denied. After all, climate change occurs. Anything can happen. At present, our country still has a lot of room for improvement in weather forecasting. Maybe there are some special factors that will cause such a situation. Just like the current typhoon forecast, it is clearly predicted that its route will be along the It was heading southeast. Maybe half an hour later it suddenly turned and turned to the northeast. The specific cause is still unknown..."

Professor Zeng Yixiang ignored him, but did not reply directly or make any clear conclusions.

He is not stupid. He just pays some appearance fees to talk about popular science. If he really wants to directly agree with or oppose the views of a famous academician, he will jump into the fire pit.

From a rational and professional perspective, Zeng Yixiang did not agree with Qin Ke's prediction. However, Qin Ke had created too many miracles in the past, so Zeng Yixiang did not dare to be 100% sure that Qin Ke's prediction was wrong - even if it was finally determined that Qin Ke's prediction was wrong. His prediction was wrong. For him to publicly voice his opposition in front of such a large audience, wouldn't it be equivalent to slapping this promising young academician in the face?What benefits can be gained by doing this?
Taking advantage of Qin Ke's reputation to rise to the top?He didn't have such extravagant hopes. The "Hurricane Operation" some time ago was still lingering, and Qian Hongbin and He Fuyuan were lessons from the past!
He didn't think he was clean enough to be investigated by the investigation team.

Moreover, this time he was a guest in the live broadcast room. It was the school leaders who sent him as a representative after being repeatedly invited by the TV station. They sent him to participate as a representative. They also hinted in advance that he should pay attention to the content of his speech. At this time, Zeng Yixiang naturally and decisively chose to be "stable yet stubborn." words to answer.

Regarding his remarks, the cynicism in the comment section never stopped.

[Oh, these are domestic experts. After all, there are very few people like Academician Qin who dare to speak out and disclose their research results. 】

[Look at the faces of domestic experts.What is the difference between what Professor Zeng said and the daily opinions of those stock commentators? ——The stock market may fall today, but it does not rule out rising due to the stimulation of special news... Isn’t this all nonsense! 】

When the host saw the plummeting number of online viewers, beads of sweat broke out on her forehead. Fortunately, at this moment, she saw the director make a gesture and light up a sign.

The host's eyes lit up and he immediately read the content on the notice board: "Professor Zeng, Professor Marquis from the American Meteorological Center is currently conducting a global live broadcast. Can you comment on his views?" After that, without waiting for Zeng Yixiang to answer, Then he motioned to the assistant to switch to the large screen.

Zeng Yixiang looked up and saw that the large screen opposite had switched to an all-English webcast room interface. A white male reporter was chatting with an old brown-haired white man, and there were automatically translated Chinese subtitles below. .

Professor Marquis?
Zeng Yixiang has also heard of this name. He is considered a celebrity in American meteorology and an academician of the American Academy of Sciences. He has published papers in "Science" and "Nature" many times.

Professor Marquis shook his head and said: "It is basically impossible for the El Niño phenomenon to occur on May 5th! Qin Ke's prediction from Xia Guo can basically be considered wrong."

Zeng Yixiang clicked his tongue. This old white man really dared to say something. But when he thought about Americans not caring about Qin Ke, what was there that he didn't dare to say?The white male reporter looked surprised: "Professor Marquis, are you so dismissive of Academician Xia Guoqin Ke's prediction?"

Professor Marquis pointed at his watch and said with a smile: "There is only about half an hour left until the early morning of May 5th, oh, that is, the noon of May 17th, Xiaguo time. Do you think that the El Niño phenomenon is sudden? Did it happen? For such a large-scale climate phenomenon, there must be sufficient conditions for its occurrence."

Professor Marquis spoke eloquently: "The formation of El Niño goes through four main processes. First, the rise in global temperature, then the strengthening of the westerly belt in spring, followed by the eastward shift of the return point of the Walker circulation, and finally the impact of the Andes on the return. The first two obstructions of the Walker circulation are global, and the latter two are regional. The key to the formation of El Niño is the change of the Walker circulation..."

After Professor Marquis briefly and comprehensively explained the relationship between the Walker circulation and atmospheric circulation, atmospheric energy budget and El Niño, he continued: "Now these four processes are indeed showing signs, especially since global temperatures have been rising in recent years. , and the strengthening of the westerly belt this spring is also obvious, but the key global atmospheric energy balance has not been broken, the height of the Walker circulation has not exceeded the Andes, and it does not have the conditions to cross the Andes and continue eastward! In other words, the third and fourth The process did not appear completely!"

The white male reporter asked: “Are you saying that the conditions for El Niño are not currently met?”

"Yes, these opinions of mine are based on the analysis of the latest meteorological data. It will be very clear when you look at this weather map... Oh, you may not understand it well." Professor Marquis waved his hand:
"In short, my conclusion is that I agree with part of Academician Qin Ke's point of view - that is, there will be an El Niño phenomenon this year - but I think that the emergence of El Niño will never be more likely in the next ten days and a half. It was at the end of June or early July. Academician Qin Ke’s prediction about the El Niño phenomenon on May 6 can basically be judged to be wrong.”

Turning down the sound of the live broadcast from the United States, the female host of Jinling Satellite TV saw that the number of people in her live broadcast room began to rise rapidly again, and the number of comments also appeared densely, some were scolding, some were doubtful, and some were supportive. In short The popularity is rising again!

The female host breathed a sigh of relief and asked Professor Zeng Yixiang out of curiosity: "Professor Zeng, what do you think of Professor Marquis's views and judgments?"

Zeng Yixiang completely agreed with Professor Marquis's judgment, but he did not dare to say it directly. He just said tactfully: "What Professor Marquis said is in line with today's mainstream El Niño theory, and the evidence is also derived from the latest meteorological data. , I also learned from the Municipal Meteorological Center yesterday that there are no signs of El Niño, that is, the disappearance of the cold water area south of the equator in the eastern Pacific, the disappearance of the southeast trade winds in the equatorial area of ​​the Pacific, and the disappearance of hot water in the equatorial area of ​​the western Pacific. There are no signs of spreading to the east yet..."

The female host asked: "It is already 11:42 and it will be noon soon. Do you think it is unlikely that the El Niño phenomenon will occur at noon today?"

Zeng Yixiang glanced at the hanging clock. It was almost impossible for a miracle to happen. The pressure on his words was also reduced by most. He nodded and said: "Indeed, the possibility of El Niño phenomenon occurring at noon today is very small, but we do not rule out special circumstances." Condition."

"What's the special situation?"

"Unless...there are other factors that affect the occurrence of El Niño, which are unknown to our current theory. The formation of El Niño itself is a coincidence of many factors in nature, and we only know that some of these factors combine to form El Niño phenomenon, but it is not certain whether there are other special circumstances that can also lead to the occurrence of El Niño phenomenon.”

The female host then asked: "What if such an extremely low probability event really happens?"

Zeng Yixiang's "impossible" words were already on his lips, but he still swallowed them back forcefully.What he said just now was just to cover the whole thing, and he didn't dare to say it completely.

The El Niño phenomenon began to be studied by scientists in the 1600s. It has a history of more than 400 years. The theory is very complete. How can there be any "special circumstances"?
Zeng Yixiang thought for a while and then said: "If such a miracle really happens, I can only say that Academician Qin and Academician Ning who made this prediction must be far ahead of the world in El Niño research..."

"Thank you very much, Professor Zeng." Seeing that the popularity of the comment area was increasing and the number of people online was increasing, the host turned up the volume of the live broadcast in the United States, intending to continue to let Zeng Yixiang comment.

At this time, in the live broadcast room in the United States, a white male reporter was discussing with Professor Marquis what kind of abnormal weather El Niño would bring to the northern hemisphere in July. Professor Marquis still stated clearly that the most likely scenario would be something like As in previous years, some areas will be dominated by floods, such as the Xia Kingdom, while other areas will experience heat and drought, such as the northern United States and parts of the Eagle Kingdom.

"So, I think another prediction made by Academician Xia Guoqin Ke is also wrong. The possibility of most countries in the northern hemisphere experiencing a hot and dry summer is almost zero!" Professor Marquis made the final decision.

Zeng Yixiang almost wanted to clap his hands when he saw it. Professor Marquis said almost everything he wanted to say!

At this moment, the female host next to him whispered: "It is 12:05, it is already noon."

She quickly refreshed the Xiaguo Meteorological Center's webpage and saw no new news.

Does this mean the dust has settled?Has Academician Qin’s prediction finally come to a conclusion?

At this time, the comment area of ​​the live broadcast room has exploded. On the Internet, especially on the scarf, #青 Academician Prediction Is Wrong # has jumped to the top of the hot search list.

The female host stabilized her mood, kept a smile and asked Zeng Yixiang: "Professor Zeng, is this prediction event fruitful?"

Zeng Yixiang couldn't help but reveal a relaxed smile: "Although 'noon' is not a time node but a time period, even if 11:00-13:00 is regarded as noon, there is no sign of El Niño so far. , which basically means that at least at noon today, it is impossible for El Niño to appear..."

At this point, Qin Ke basically had no chance of making a comeback, so Zeng Yixiang became bolder in speaking.

At this moment, his cell phone rang suddenly.

After looking at the caller ID, Zeng Yixiang said: "It's a call from the Jinling Meteorological Center. I'll answer the call."

The female host smiled and made a gesture of please.

Zeng Yixiang had made an appointment with the Jinling Meteorological Center before. If the El Niño phenomenon did not occur, he would make a phone call at noon to inform him. At this time, he answered the phone with a relaxed expression, but soon his eyes became wider and wider. He looked like he had seen a ghost:

"What? You said that weather satellites showed that the cold water area in the eastern Pacific south of the equator began to disappear, and that the surface water in the eastern and central Pacific near the equator showed signs of abnormal warming? Is this a precursor to the El Niño phenomenon... This... How is this? possible--!"

He stood there in despair, not even hearing the hostess calling him several times.

23 minutes later, Xia Guo Meteorological Center and the meteorological centers of major countries in the world issued an announcement almost at the same time:
"At 5:17 noon on May 12th, summer time, the El Niño phenomenon appears!"

The next second, the entire world's network exploded!
　Thanks to "Mingming" for the big reward!I’m so excited to receive the reward!
　　
　
(End of this chapter)