The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 626 Financial Conference (3)

  Although what Dick Foud said was passionate and inspiring, to investors and analysts, it was at most a temporary emotional infection and fluctuation, and what finally convinced them was a row of cold numbers.

  The loss of investment income was 5.7 billion US dollars. Although the operating income reached 1.8 billion US dollars, the loss of Lehman Brothers reached 3.9 billion US dollars after the asset write-down, which was the highest in history again.

  Although the result of the loss was expected by the entire Wall Street, this figure still surprised everyone. So much so that when Chris O'Meara announced the number, there was a gasp of exclamation at the scene.

Fortunately, all these reactions happened during the rehearsal, so Chris O'Meara did not rush. After releasing the relevant data, he quickly shifted everyone's attention to the new asset restructuring plan of Raymond Brothers. among.

  Half an hour later, after Chris O'Meara explained the entire asset restructuring plan, everyone was immersed in the confidence of digesting the asset restructuring plan, which instead brought the entire venue into a rare state of silence.

   "Everything is under control!"

  Dick Foud nodded in satisfaction, and signaled Chris O'Meara to announce a five-minute adjournment to give everyone a buffer time before continuing with the following topics.

  The next interactive session is the time to really test Leimen Brothers.

   "Zhong Sheng, what do you think of this asset restructuring plan?"

When Chris O'Meara announced the suspension of the meeting, the analysts present got up and left one after another, and went to the corridor or the bathroom to make phone calls, but the meeting room seemed deserted. Shi et al. is one of them.

  Jiangshan carefully listened to every clause of Leimen Brothers' asset reorganization throughout the whole process, and even took notes in his notebook very carefully. Taking advantage of the rest time, he quickly calculated in his mind and came to a general conclusion: this asset restructuring plan has greatly boosted the confidence in the capital market. If it can be successfully implemented, it is very likely that Leimen brothers will survive current difficulties.

   But before making a conclusion, he still had to seek Zhong Shi's opinion.

   "Huang Fei, Zhang Yujiao, what do you two think?" Zhong Shi asked without answering, with a serious expression on his face.

  Huang Fei and Zhang Yujiao are financial analysts who followed Zhong Shi. Both of them have more than 20 years of market experience and are experts in this field. Huang Fei is about 1.7 meters tall, has a chubby figure, smiles like a Maitreya Buddha, and has a more pleasing face. Zhang Yujiao, on the other hand, is slightly taller, of medium build, with a thin face, wearing glasses, and very bookish.

"Zhong Sheng, this plan is quite good. But if it can be carried out, Leimen Brothers will divest a large part of its non-performing assets, which is a positive signal for business transformation and asset management." Huang Fei said with a smile "However, there are still many problems. Whether the funds raised from the sale of these assets can maintain the company's daily operations remains to be seen. If the funds in this regard are not enough, Leimen Brothers needs to raise funds again from the market. This Where and how the funds are obtained, this is probably the key to hindering the smooth progress of this plan."

"According to my rough calculations, and the current list of house prices across the United States, this part of the asset sale can collect at most about 4 billion to 6 billion US dollars, and the funds to maintain this real estate company are also within this range, perhaps There will be more. But the problem is that even if Leimen Brothers sells this part of the real estate now, they will inevitably suffer a loss of liquidity if they want to cash out successfully, so the figure of 4 billion to 6 billion US dollars is obviously overestimated. Even if two months It is still unknown whether Raymond Brothers will be able to survive the two months if they can be successfully sold within the next two months."

   "So my conclusion is that I'm afraid the market won't give Raymond much time. Unless it can find money immediately, it's going to be a big deal."

  Huang Fei still had a smiling face, but what he said made the hair stand on end: This plan doesn't work at all.

"My opinion is basically the same as Huang Fei's!" Zhang Yujiao adjusted his glasses on the bridge of his nose, and said in a straight voice, "The difference from Huang Fei's focus is that what I noticed just now is Lei The bond valuation released by Men Brothers. Greenlight Capital declared in May that there was a problem with the value of the subprime mortgage bonds held by Lehman Brothers, and that Lehman Brothers did not revaluate them according to the market price. In other words In other words, although there is a write-down of up to 5.7 billion US dollars, the actual loss is far more than that.”

"The $30 billion divestiture of commercial real estate is important. But notice, in the later wording they said, 'Global Realty (a subsidiary of Lehman Brothers) will hold-to-maturity assets Value, not affected by market price fluctuations'. God, know what this means? It means that the company's asset calculation is based on the original price plus expected earnings, not the current market price."

"If it was purchased for $1 million and the expected return is 25% ten years later, then they are worth $1.25 million on the financial statements, not the current market price of $700,000 or less. If so If so, then the current market value of the real estate assets of 30 billion US dollars they mentioned will be greatly discounted. As Huang Fei said just now, when time is running out and market prices are falling, this part of assets How much can be discounted is the big question.”

"By analogy, no one knows how much the Lehman brothers' subprime mortgage bonds or even CDOs have lost, unless they really intervene in their purchases and put all their The asset numbers have to be re-checked to find out. God, this game they are playing is a fool of everyone."

   At the end, Zhang Yujiao couldn't help shaking his head.

  Zhong Shi nodded and didn't say anything, but his eyes flickered all the time, not knowing what he was thinking. Jiang Shan's expression on the side was unnatural. After all, his financial experience was not as rich as that of Huang Fei and Zhang Yujiao, so it was inevitable that he didn't find the problem, but it was unthinkable to come to the opposite conclusion.

  For a while, Jiang Shan was ashamed.

  …

  The problem of Raymond Brothers can only be hidden from outsiders, but not from professionals. After five minutes of digestion, the participants returned to the venue again, and then began to cross-examine Raymond Brothers CFO Chris O'Meara.

"According to the plan, your plan to sell assets can raise about 3 billion U.S. dollars, but the operation of the new company needs to inject about 7 billion U.S. dollars. This is the result of our calculations. What I want to know is how do you plan to raise excess capital?" The $4 billion that came out?"

  Like everyone else, the Deutsche Bank analyst who was allowed to ask questions also discovered this problem and asked unceremoniously.

  Chris O'Meara's scalp went numb for a while, and he was really afraid of anything. Even so, he still didn't intend to answer the question directly, otherwise everything would be screwed up.

"Sorry, gentlemen, I don't agree with your numbers," said Chris O'Meara biting the bullet. "After the split, the new Lehmans will have less leverage than they currently have, which will free up A lot of capital. Taking a step back, even after doing the math, we were able to get enough capital out of the capital to support the new company.”

  Chris O'Meara tried his best to relax himself and speak with force, so that he appeared to be full of confidence. But in fact, he is strong on the outside and does nothing on the inside. He has no confidence at all.

   Fortunately, the German analysts did not continue to ask questions, because chattering on this occasion is almost the same as a showdown. So despite their doubts, they politely kept silent.

   The most important question was fooled, and Chris O'Meara immediately gained confidence, regained some confidence, and began to answer other questions on the scene, including the telephone connection, in an orderly manner.

  …

"He didn't answer the question directly!" Huang Fei's face no longer had a smile on his face. "He's evading, because he knows that there is no answer to this question at all. They can't raise capital in the market anymore. The things that are thrown out now It's all just an empty shell."

"But their stocks have risen!" Jiang Shan's face became more solemn, and he took out his mobile phone and handed it to everyone, "It has slowly risen by 4.5%, and it may rise even more today. It seems that the market's reaction to this is very positive. .”

   "It's just lingering!" Zhong Shi sneered, "Now they are completely finished! If there is no consortium to lend a hand to help! What is certain is that they have no help!"

"what?"

"how can that be?"

   Several people including Jiang Shan looked at Zhong Shi in disbelief, not understanding why Zhong Shi would say such words. You must know that just yesterday, there were rumors in the market that Bank of America was interested in Lehman Brothers, but today Zhong Shi actually said that there was no assistance. We must know that no matter how powerful Zhongshi is, it is impossible to affect the decision-making of Bank of America.

   "You will know later!"

   Regarding this, Zhong Shi just gave them a cold look, took out his mobile phone, and said in a low voice, "Sell me the stocks of the British banking industry. I need to clear them all within three days, yes, regardless of the cost."

  …

  Naturally, Zhong Shi's words were faithfully conveyed to Soros who had been waiting by the phone, which puzzled him greatly.

  Soros's team is also paying close attention to the release of Lehman Brothers' report. Like other analysts, they are also keenly aware of the problems in the report of Lehman Brothers. But for Soros, Zhongshi’s sudden sale of British banking stocks puzzled him, because at this time, Zhongshi’s every move must be related to Lehman Brothers, but why the other party chose to sell British banking stocks? What is the relationship between the two has become a key question.

"Quick, hurry up and check the organization connected this time to see if you can get the list of the British consortium!" After thinking for a long time, Soros finally thought of a possibility that a British consortium showed signs of disapproval of the Raymond Brothers. It means that it is very likely that they will choose to acquire Leimen Brothers recently, and this news is controlled by Zhongshi, but Soros himself does not know, "I need detailed information, the latest developments of each company, including finance, executives, Strategic moves and cash reserves, etc.”

"Wait, it's those consortiums that intend to explore the US market, whose investment banking department is not strong enough, but have a large enough asset scale!" Just as the analyst was about to leave, Soros stopped him in time, "Especially in the Today's meeting, they are most likely."

After another order, Soros closed his eyes and lay down on the sofa, but he couldn't help but sigh in his heart. Compared with this junior who was regarded as the enemy of his life, he was actually in the network of people he was proud of. And the news is behind. This made him feel a burst of panic.

   However, it is obviously impossible to defeat Soros. His will has long been as indestructible as steel! Soon, after the initial loss, a strong fighting spirit was ignited in his heart. The Leimen brothers might not be able to fight this time, but he would definitely fight Zhongshi head-on again in the future.

   Thanks to book friends Europe 56, Nanquan 99, and Jiangnan Liu Feiyan for continuing to vote monthly! Thanks to book friend Xiao Qi for another reward for the miracle of civilization! I hope more book friends can support this book~

  (end of this chapter)