The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 378 The "destruction" of investment banks

It must be explained that this time Peregrine’s crisis was purely caused by the fixed income department’s misjudgment of the macro economy, while the sales department and the investment banking department were intact, and like the fixed income department, it was Peregrine core business. If these two business departments can be merged into Guangshenghang, and the original team will be replaced by another name, as long as there is time, "Peregean" may not be able to make a comeback.

  This is the wishful thinking of Peregrine. At this time, they have no time to find cash flow supplements. They can only preserve Peregrine’s strength as much as possible on the basis of imagining that it may be liquidated, in order to make a comeback.

  The bonds issued by Peregrine will expire tomorrow, that is, on January 10, and investors need to pay the principal plus interest. Although they have issued bonds for countless companies and have good credit in the fixed-income market, many institutional investors are willing to buy them, but they probably never imagined that the bonds they issued might one day go into default.

The news of the breakdown of the negotiations quickly spread to the ears of the media, and many Hong Kong newspapers were forced to change their headlines within a few hours before the release, canceling the headlines they had prepared and replacing them with Peregrine’s breakdown of negotiations The news is in the first edition.

Soon, before the opening of the Hong Kong stock market, the market knew the news. The news that Peregrine was in crisis was like a blockbuster, which dealt an extremely heavy blow to the opening index, directly knocking the opening figures of the Hong Kong stock market today. Blow down below 9000 points.

However, Peregrine’s factors were not the only reason why Hong Kong stocks fell at the opening. The Hong Kong dollar’s ​​roller-coaster performance last night also played a crucial role. The recent continuous rise in interbank offered rates has also put great pressure on Hong Kong stocks. .

"8971 points, tsk tsk, this number is really low." After sleeping in the office all night, Zhong Shi became energetic again, and after a quick wash in the bathroom, when he appeared in the trading floor again, he was The Hong Kong stock market has just opened.

   "It's not caused by international speculators!" Ma Jiarui sat aside and yawned feebly, "Recently, the interbank lending rate has risen to 8%, and it may reach double digits today."

  centi, the concept in financial terms is a few thousandths of a month. For example, the interbank offered rate is 8%, that is, an interest rate of eight thousandths per month, which is converted into an annualized interest rate of 9.6%. Of course, this is only a simple interest algorithm. If it is a compound interest algorithm, it is far more than the figure of 9.6%.

The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is closely related to the performance of the lending rate. At this time, the lending rate is almost a barometer of the stock market, and the stock market is a barometer of the macro economy, and the lending rate also affects the benchmark interest rate to some extent. Therefore, the lending rate It is no exaggeration to say that it is a barometer of the entire Hong Kong economy.

  Ma Jiarui attributes the recent downturn in the stock market to the rise in interest rates, which is logically reasonable. But both he and Zhong Shi knew in their hearts that this was not the real reason.

"Apart from these, is there any other important information?" Zhong Shi threw a piece of gum into his mouth, chewed it for a long time, and then asked vaguely, "It fell 300 points at the opening. After a raid by a hedge fund, wouldn’t confidence still be so fragile? Wouldn’t the HKMA support it if the sky fell?”

"The negotiations with Peregrine have broken down!" Ma Jiarui blinked his eyes with an incredulous expression on his face, "It has already spread today that the talks between Peregrine and foreign investors have collapsed, and we have been working hard for several months. , In the end, it was still nothing. Fortunately, Peregrine’s stock has been suspended, otherwise I don’t know what it will fall into today! In my opinion, they are a little bit hanging this time!”

"Xuan?" Although he knew the final outcome of Peregrine well, Zhong Shi still showed a bewildered expression, "No way! They are top-notch brokerages anyway, not much worse than those on Wall Street, why? Maybe it’s just a matter of falling down?”

  Ma Jiarui curled his lips, quite disapprovingly, "Now are you going to buy this company?"

"Buy it?" Zhong Shi was taken aback for a moment, then lowered his head and thought for a long time, then slowly shook his head, "I'm really not very interested in business. And I want to eat this company, all aspects of the future You have to do it yourself, forget it.”

   Seeing that Zhong Shi was not interested, Ma Jiarui stopped talking, closed his eyes and began to recover.

   In fact, Zhong Shi is not without interest. If he makes a move at this time, with Peregrine's contacts and relationships in the mainland, their business can flourish for at least five years. But after that, I'm afraid it will be hard to say.

In fact, with the establishment of Huajin Company, due to its national background and Stanley's global sales network, they will soon monopolize the listing resources of high-quality state-owned enterprises in the Mainland, and Peregrine's market share in this market will only be 100%. Getting smaller and smaller. And this year, the first private enterprise started to go public. Before that, this area was basically blank, so Peregrine still has a lot to do.

  But then with the rise of the A-share market and the intervention of various forces, the IPO market gradually became distorted, and even developed into a pure exchange of interests. For example, if an investment bank wants to do an IPO of a company, the original means of competition is to rely on the sales network and underwriting fees to raise as much funds as possible for the company and reduce the cost of the IPO to attract customers. It became a strange public relations, for example, by going to the upper level, recruiting the children of high-level leaders and other shady means to win over the other party, so that foreign investment banks were purged by their own governments.

As for Peregrine, a local brokerage in Hong Kong, basically there is not much room for survival in this environment. If they go down the road, they will not only be criticized by public opinion, but also be accused by ICAC, Commercial Crime Investigation Bureau, etc. from time to time. Investigate and deal with them, and if they take the upper-level route, their contacts and relationship network are definitely not comparable to the mainland brokerages, and they will eventually die if they are caught between the left and right.

  In fact, the IPO in Hong Kong’s financial sector was basically monopolized by European and American investment banks and mainland brokerages, and there were basically no local brokerages engaged in IPO projects. This is the reason. Hong Kong, after all, is too far away from the center of power.

But Zhong Shi does not think that the path of brokerage is impracticable. Although he is a buyer, it does not mean that he cannot absorb excellent talents from the seller, especially for a big company like Peregrine, which has a first-class talent pool. . His wishful thinking was that, after the limelight passed, some traders from Peregrine's fixed income department would be recruited to set up a new company to operate exclusively in the bond market.

   Naturally, he didn't need to tell Ma Jiarui these things.

  …

  Hong Kong stock market plummeted 300 points at the opening, exacerbating the collapse of investor confidence. The news that international speculators are making a comeback that was widely circulated yesterday has finally become a reality after the Hong Kong dollar fluctuated sharply last night. This made many people feel extremely panic. Although the HKMA has hinted through various channels that international speculators are not as scary as everyone imagined, and it is said that Ren Yigang will speak to the outside world later today, all this still cannot stop everyone Selling of stocks.

  But soon, these sellers felt that something was wrong. Shortly after the market opened, the Hong Kong stock market reversed and rose instead of falling. This time, it was the same as yesterday, starting with red chips and then spreading to the entire market.

  Naturally, the central government took action again, and the news quickly spread throughout the market. Although there was still hesitation in their hearts, most investors still tried to buy. Soon, the Hang Seng Index turned from red to green, and there was an increase.

It's a pity that after rushing to 9073, there was an astonishing amount of sell-offs on the Hong Kong Index futures and the stocks of dozens of large listed companies at the same time, which almost immediately put this upward momentum to an abrupt end. Contain it, and then, sell-offs flooded into every corner of the market like a tide, and knocked the market numbers back down again.

  The buying party naturally refused to show weakness, and the two sides fought repeatedly for the position of the 9000-point market, and even once gained the upper hand. But soon, with the news that the interbank offered rate suddenly rose to 11%, the entire market reversed, and people began to sell their stocks, which doubled the pressure on the buyer. After a little resistance Just hand over the dominance to others.

After the buying party was gone, the short side began to suppress the stock price even more brazenly. The limelight can almost be described as the same for a while. The Hang Seng Index began to plummet all the way. At the lowest point, it even reached 8721 points, which was much higher than the previous transaction. The closing price of the day fell by 533 points, but this is not the closing price of the day. As the short positions of the Hong Kong index futures began to close a large number of positions after making profits, the Hang Seng Index began to rebound after this position.

At this time, the bulls began to take advantage of the opportunity again, and began to lead the rebound of red chip stocks. This time they became savvy, not only starting with red chips, but also including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Wharf, Changhe Industrial, Hutchison Whampoa and many other big companies. All the stocks were sold together, attacking the short side in all aspects.

As the Hang Seng Index futures market has begun to gradually close their positions, the short sellers will naturally not make too much entanglement. They retreated while coping, and the Hong Kong stock market rose again, and finally rose by more than 200 points from the lowest point. It closed at 8894 points, down 359 points or 3.89% all day.

Although the Hong Kong market was closed, the matter was far from over. After the London market opened, the interbank interest rate in Hong Kong actually rose again, rising to 13%. This figure shows that the actions of international speculators against the Hong Kong dollar are far from over. Demand remains high.

  However, fortunately, the next two days are weekends, otherwise the Hong Kong market really does not know what will happen. The current investors only hope that the HKMA can defeat the international speculators again as soon as possible.

  …

  At this time, the HKMA, while guiding the market to increase the lending rate, also began to discuss the restructuring plan of Peregrine.

Although international speculators once again appeared in the Hong Kong market, this time the Monetary Authority has calmed down a lot. After statistics last night, they found that they consumed a total of 7.2 billion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves in the past night. There is not much difference in comparison once, but at least Hong Kong is no longer so close to the enemy, and the lending rate will not soar to 300%.

  According to this range, the Monetary Authority will consider raising the lending rate to an astronomical figure if it consumes at least 20 billion U.S. dollars. Otherwise, the damage to Hong Kong's capital market will be too great.

   "The foreign exchange market needs to be monitored urgently. Nian Tao is dealing with this, and the development will be reported here at any time, so you don't have to worry too much. Everyone has been discussing this plan of Peregrine for a day. What do you think?"

  Ren Yigang's face was full of tiredness. Too many things happened in the past day. Even if he has three heads and six arms, he might feel overwhelmed and unsustainable at this time.

Seeing the president speak, the members of the Stock Committee of the HKMA who had been talking about it for a whole day discussed in whispers for a while, and then an old man who was over sixty years old stood up and said: "Our opinion is to deny Peregrine's restructuring plan. Make it liquidate!"

   Thanks to book friends 140106105136697, Kalm Dashen, Niu Xiaofan, and Shihuang Tiantou for their support! Thank you everyone, I hope more book friends will continue to support!

  (end of this chapter)