The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 324 Li Zehai

  On November 7, the International Monetary Fund issued a public statement, announcing that it had lowered its economic growth forecast for Hong Kong to 4.25%, because the recent financial market turmoil has affected Hong Kong's economic growth. However, the IMF also stated that the linked exchange rate system of the Hong Kong SAR government is stable, the economic fundamentals are sound, the financial strength is strong, the foreign exchange reserves are strong, and the balance of payments is balanced. There is no need to worry too much about the currency crisis spreading to Hong Kong.

It’s just that this statement did not play a role in promoting the Hong Kong stock market. On the contrary, as investors worried that interbank interest rates would continue to rise, short sellers stepped in. During the trading hours, it managed to rise above 10,000 points and closed at 10104.5 points. Its performance throughout the day was not even satisfactory.

  In the Southeast Asian market, as Thailand’s political situation tends to become clearer, Chuan Lupei is very likely to win the candidate for the prime minister of Thailand, which makes the market’s confidence in the Thai baht rebound, and investors who sold the Thai baht have bought back the Thai baht to cover their positions. The Thai baht rebounded 3.5% in one day to 38 baht to the US dollar. The strong performance of the Thai baht has also prompted currencies in other parts of Southeast Asia to stabilize. It seems that at least in the short term, Southeast Asian currencies tend to recover or even stabilize.

  The focus of the market is no longer on the currencies of Hong Kong or the traumatized Southeast Asian countries, but has shifted to East Asia. To be precise, yesterday's massive won selling caught the attention of the entire currency market.

   After yesterday's wild swings, the Bank of Korea had to make an anonymous statement on the Korean won and recent market concerns, with the aim of boosting market confidence. But what they never expected was that this kind of remarks not only failed to achieve the results they wanted, but instead created a taste of concealment, which made investors even less confident in the Korean won.

Although Park Xilai gave the traders of the Bank of Korea a specific price target on this day, that is, to maintain the won at the level of 1 US dollar to 975 won, and there was no single sale order exceeding 900 billion won in the market, but the traders It was found that the amount of Korean won sold in the market was significantly higher. Although many of them are selling orders worth billions of won, it is obviously impossible to keep the won at a fixed position under such circumstances.

  Here I must talk about the skills of trading, because the Korean won floats in a limited way, so floating in a certain area is within the normal range. But if the Korean won is fixed at a certain price for a long time, or fails to break through a certain price in the range, the market will definitely think that it is the result of the intervention of the Bank of Korea. In this case, if the institutions that want to sell the Korean won make a large amount of short selling, the Bank of Korea will be forced to take over the order, and the limited floating will lose its meaning.

The limited floating system keeps the foreign exchange dealers in a range of concentrated games. Even if all the foreign exchange dealers are unanimously bearish, the Bank of Korea only needs to take action to maintain the fluctuation range of this day, and then it will form again the next day. In the new range of fluctuations, foreign exchange dealers will start a new exchange rate game. This is completely different from the rigid fixed exchange rate system in Southeast Asian countries. Once those currencies approach the critical point stipulated by the fixed exchange rate system, the rest will be taken over by the central bank, and then the foreign exchange reserves will be depleted step by step.

  Traders will naturally not reveal their identities, so after consulting Park Hee Lai, they began to intervene in the market at certain price levels without any trace. Naturally, the position of 975 could not be kept, and the exchange rate of the Korean won to the US dollar even fell to a new low of 980.20. However, the traders of the Bank of Korea were not vegetarians. at 979.90.

  The South Korean won fell for another day, which naturally caused more speculation in the market. However, the South Korean government denied the rumors of seeking help from the International Monetary Fund. An official from the Ministry of Finance and Economics of South Korea declared that they had never considered it and would not do so. At the same time, they said that South Korea has enough funds to restore financial order. and confidence. The official also cited the International Monetary Fund's assessment of the Korean economy not long ago: the growth rate is expected to reach 6.5%, the trade surplus is expected to shrink to about 10 billion U.S. dollars, and inflation is reduced to 4.5%. Confident in stabilizing the exchange rate system.

In this regard, the reaction of the market is mixed. Some analysts believe that the Korean won is currently undervalued and it is time to buy the Korean won; while other analysts believe that South Korea is facing the same situation as other countries in Southeast Asia, so the Korean won is in jeopardy. Actively choose to depreciate words.

  Economists in South Korea have also begun to take the initiative to express their views in public. Since large Korean companies have their own economic research institutes, although these researchers do not work for the government, their remarks can represent the official views to a certain extent. Among them, some heavyweights said that the current market view that South Korean companies are unable to repay foreign debts is a complete mistake, because South Korea's current account surplus is shrinking and the balance of payments surplus is improving. In addition, compared with the size of the economy, the scale of short-term external debt is much smaller than that of Mexico, the Philippines, Thailand and other countries whose monetary systems have been overwhelmed. Moreover, short-term foreign debts can be repaid as long as Korean companies can settle normally. The most important thing is that South Korea still has foreign exchange reserves of more than 50 billion US dollars. Therefore, the market's concern about the Korean won is not due to the lack of South Korean foreign exchange reserves, but over-exaggeration This concern about the solvency of Korean companies.

The well-known person in the South Korean economic circle also revealed that the South Korean government is currently discussing with the legal team and is preparing to charge certain news rumors with a series of charges including defamation. The South Korean side believes that these rumors deliberately exaggerate South Korea’s financial Difficulties and the use of inaccurate information on foreign exchange reserves to mislead investors have led to heightened financial market turmoil.

   This is just a private statement. Although the information disclosed between the words is all official information, it is different from the official official statement after all. At the same time, the Bank of Korea also indicated that they have the ability and confidence to support South Korea's securities and banking industries and ensure smooth financing channels for South Korean companies.

  In short, this day is far more lively than the previous few trading days, and the formation of this situation is precisely due to the large-scale selling of Korean won in the market the day before and the selling wave driven by it today.

  …

The instigator of the dumping of Korean won is sitting in a private club and drinking tea leisurely. This is a private club located on the hillside of Taiping Mountain. Only guests with membership cards and very few people who are actively invited can enter. , and Zhong Shi has never been very interested in these so-called private clubs, so he was one of the very few people who were actively invited in.

At this time, Zhong Shi, who had just finished the hot spring bath, was refreshed, wrapped in a bathrobe and kneeling on the tatami, and sitting opposite him was a young man in his thirties, who was staring wide-eyed and working hard. Wiping the gold-rimmed glasses in his hand.

  Among them was a boxy, antique coffee table, on which a set of Kung Fu tea sets were neatly arranged. A pretty young woman is making Kung Fu tea meticulously. Her dexterous hands are constantly shaking between the stove and the tea set, sometimes twisting the tea and adding water, sometimes watching the fire and adding charcoal. There is a fragrance in it.

The breeze outside the room blows slightly, rolling up the green bamboo leaves around, and the crisp sound of Shushuo between the ups and downs, coupled with the scene of burning incense and making tea in the room, people can't help but think that it is back to ancient times, some two mountain hermits It is really fascinating to talk about the world in a calm manner while the beautiful maid waits on the side.

It's a pity that the man with glasses on the opposite side had just cleaned his glasses, and he couldn't wait to say: "Zhong Sheng, it's a great fortune to meet you this time. If it wasn't for my old Dou's introduction, I really don't know Hong Kong has such courage De Haoshi, hehe, I heard that even if your wealth is compared with my old Dou, it is not inferior at all."

  If outsiders were to hear their conversation at this time, and the man with glasses touched the smelly things as soon as he opened his mouth, he might lose his appetite immediately and let down such a beautiful scenery.

"hey-hey!"

  Zhong Shi smiled, but didn't say anything. Compared with Li Jiacheng, his young Li Zehai is much easier to communicate with. Apart from the similar age difference and the common language between them, the more important thing is that Li Zehai is young and ambitious at this time, and he wants to do something. Fan surpassed his father's big career, so under the lead of Li Jiacheng, he decided to cooperate with Zhong Shi almost without thinking too much.

   For the person in front of him, Zhong Shi couldn't be more clear, he is absolutely a ruthless character with empty hands and white wolf. In later generations, he promised stockholders a blank check by depicting the bright future of the Cyberport. As a result, he was wildly sought after by all walks of life, and his personal wealth even approached that of his father Li Jiacheng at one point. It's a pity that after he spun off and acquired the telecommunications company, and the technology stock bubble burst, the market value of the merged PCCW evaporated by more than 90%, and most shareholders lost their money. But he made billions of Hong Kong dollars in the process of this merger, and took down a listed company without getting hurt. The whole thing can even be written into the textbooks of business schools.

   Apart from his sympathy for ordinary shareholders, Zhong Shi believes that Li Zehai is definitely a master of capital operations, so he agreed to join him without thinking. After all, what he needs to deal with at this time is international currency speculators, and there is no conflict of interest with Li Zehai.

  Li Zehai is 30 years old this year. He has a face that resembles Li Jiacheng. After wearing glasses, he is even a younger version of Li Jiacheng. Born in a wealthy family since he was a child, he has been under heavy pressure since he was sensible. However, Li Zehai was not crushed by this pressure. On the contrary, he made some impressive achievements under the blessing of leaving his father. In 1991, he founded satellite TV, and sold it to media tycoon Rupert Murdoch two years later. From this transaction alone, he earned US$400 million in capital, which caused a sensation in Hong Kong.

   Today, the Yingke Group founded by Li Zehai is mainly engaged in real estate business, and it also has businesses in Canada, China, Japan and other countries. Although it cannot be compared with Changhe Industrial, it should not be underestimated.

  After a complicated process, the woman finally made the tea. After pouring out the first tea, she respectfully held two cups of tea in front of Zhong Shi and Li Zehai, and then went back to work on her own.

  The teacup was really small, and Zhong Shi was thirsty for a long time. After taking the teacup, he drank it all in one gulp, and then smacked his lips twice, looking as if he still couldn't finish it. When the woman next to her saw it, she immediately brought over another cup of tea, and after Zhong Shi took it, she drank again. After drinking five cups in a row, Zhong Shi let out a long sigh, licked his lips, and said carelessly without any embarrassment about his performance: "Richard, this tea is not bad, but it's a waste of time .”

  Li Zehai was speechless, he managed to create such an elegant scene, but Zhong Shi's behavior of burning the piano and cooking the crane completely destroyed the atmosphere. If he could, he really wanted to look up to the sky and sigh.

It's just that the current situation is stronger than others, and Li Zehai can only shake his head in his heart, and echoed with a forced smile: "Zhong Sheng, what you said is very reasonable, and I will never look for such a place next time. There are so many people in the market today. There are a lot of rumors, and there are also various news from South Korea, what do you think?"

  He followed the good advice like a follower, he just went straight to the topic after a little tangled in his mind for a moment, never wasting a moment of time. This time, he raised a total of 500 million US dollars in cash, and had invested 300 million US dollars in the Korean won foreign exchange market in the early stage. Naturally, he was very concerned about every move in the Korean won market.

   "She..." Zhong Shi didn't answer, but pointed to the woman who was making tea.

Li Zehai understood, waved his hand, and asked the woman to leave the room, and when there were only the two of them in the room, he said, "This woman is a Japanese woman, and the waitresses in this club are all from Japan, so they don't understand vernacular." Zhong Sheng is really cautious, it seems that I have to learn more from you."

"Learn from me? I still want to learn from you! It is true to learn how to eat people without spitting out their bones!" Zhong Shi secretly slandered in his heart, but with a smile on his face, he asked instead: "Richard, What do you think of the previous currency crisis in Southeast Asia?"

   Li Zehai is a layman when it comes to international economics, but he has long been prepared to combine his own think tank analysis with media reports, and speak eloquently.

  When he spoke, Zhong Shi neither affirmed nor denied, and his expression was always calm, without any fluctuations. This made Li Zehai feel uncertain, and as a result, the more he talked, the more confused he became.

  Seeing the change in Li Zehai's expression, Zhong Shi secretly shook his head, thinking that this lord is still a little tender after all, not a bit worse than his unfathomable old man. However, Zhongshi did not mean to embarrass him at this time. After Li Zehai finished speaking, he asked: "If my memory is correct, I remember that two days before the devaluation of the Thai baht, the Prime Minister of Thailand also announced that the Thai baht will never depreciate." You should also have an impression of this part of the public speech, right?"

"Yes!"

  Li Zehai said without hesitation: "I am particularly impressed. Prime Minister Chavalit made remarks about the baht again and again. Among them, the speech that impressed me the most... Zhong Sheng, what do you mean..."

  Suddenly his eyes lit up, and his expression became richer: first he was stunned, then he frowned in thought, and then suddenly realized, his whole face became extremely flushed with excitement.

"good!"

  Zhong Shi nodded and said: "Now the South Korean government is also facing this situation. It has released news several times, but it is actually covering up its nature of being a strong outsider, and the depreciation of the Korean won is just around the corner!"

  Although he tried his best to conceal the shock in his heart, the twitching corners of his mouth still betrayed Li Zehai's heart, but in Zhong Shi's view, all these were normal reactions. A layman will definitely be "misled" by them when he hears so many news from South Korea, but to a real insider, these news are just an ordinary statement, a statement that is difficult to distinguish between true and false.

  The direction of the Korean won is not determined by the South Korean government's explicit or implicit speeches. In the final analysis, it still depends on the market, especially the attitude of capital towards them.

   Thank you book friend Feng Qi Shi ㄟ miss you, wszs321 voted monthly support!

  (end of this chapter)