The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 304 Issue 4: Skyrocketing interest rates (Part 2)

  The relationship between interest rates and the stock market can be related by the cost of funds. In fact, both parties are financing channels. If money is blood, then for example, bank financing and stock market financing channels are like two thick blood vessels. When one of them suddenly becomes thicker, the blood flowing through this blood vessel will naturally become more. .

  The performance of this "thickening of blood vessels" in the capital market is the price of funds, that is, the interest rate level. In the case of successive declines in Hong Kong stocks, it is difficult to find a stock that can make a stable profit or even maintain the original price. At this time, investors will be more inclined to invest in risk-free deposits, which causes the stock market to be blood-supplied Insufficient, will inevitably cause the index to fall.

  In addition to the mutual competition for funds, the decline of the Hang Seng Index is also due to investors' concerns about the increase in the cost of listed companies. Because it is inevitable for a company to operate with borrowing, after the interest rate rises sharply, it will inevitably lead to concerns about rising loan costs. This worry will directly affect the expectation of net profit, which in turn will cause stock prices to fall.

  Pumped funds fleeing, unfavorable expectations, unscrupulous suppression by large institutions, and panic-driven sell-offs by small investors, all these reasons contributed to the crazy decline of the Hang Seng Index on this day.

  …

The researchers of Tianyu Fund are still discussing whether the Hang Seng Index can stand above and below the 10,000-point mark. When the bearish faction and the bullish faction are fighting each other, the Hang Seng Index has already approached the integer mark of 10,000 points. , and at this time in the Hang Seng Index futures market, this divergence reached its peak.

The bulls who had lost money before began to frequently open new positions to pull down the positions that had suffered heavy losses before, while the short side was not to be outdone. Except for a few small-scale short positions, the main short positions did not hesitate to take over the newly opened long positions . Obviously, from the perspective of the short side, the number of 10,000 points does not mean anything, even if the bull side is aggressive.

Although both sides in the stock index futures market are gearing up for a battle at 10,000 points, it is clear that the Hong Kong stock market is not operating according to their wishes. In the blink of an eye, he broke through this psychological barrier, and then continued to explore deeply.

9950, 9900, 9850, 9800 and other integers fell one after another. At this time, the confidence of small investors in the entire market has collapsed. Some people even think that the "stock market crash" is coming again. In fact, at around 9800, the entire Hang Seng Index has fallen by nearly 16%. , it is not an exaggeration to call it a stock market crash.

  …

When the index fell below 10,000 points, Song Ling and others were already red-eyed. Although their previous strategy was to let those related accounts stand out, and they would not have to bear the notoriety of negligence, but at this time Hong Kong stocks generally plummeted. At this time, it is unreasonable not to start again.

"Hello, is this the Hualian News Agency? I need to urgently mobilize three billion Hong Kong dollars in funds, and the speed must be fast!" Song Ling's voice was already hoarse, and at this time the phone rang one after another in his office, usually a Before the call was finished, another call rang again. The people who spoke to him all complained, and some even scolded their heads and faces as soon as they came up, without giving Song Ling a chance to explain.

  Under this situation, Song Ling also panicked. He knew very well that if he could not support the market in time, the favors sold earlier would be wiped out, and on the contrary, a lot of hatred would be formed. So he quickly dialed the number of the Hualian News Agency, and the right to control large amounts of funds was in their hands.

  The Hualian News Agency did not dare to neglect. Although they usually feel embarrassed about the support group headed by Song Ling, but at this time, the matter is of great importance. If they can't do anything, they will be the first to bear the brunt when the superior is furious. So when Song Ling called to raise funds, they immediately allocated the entrusted funds to the market, and the others did the same.

  In just a few minutes, the Hang Seng Index has fallen below 9900. After seeing billions of Hong Kong dollars in the account, Song Ling had the time to wipe off the sweat on his forehead, and commanded the trader in a deep voice: "Buy! Buy me crazy! State-owned enterprise stocks are preferred, Heavyweight shares are second, and you can figure out the rest!"

   At the same time, in the capital market offices of several other large state-owned enterprises, similar orders were conveyed one after another.

When the Hang Seng Index fell to 9800, several large-scale orders began to emerge in the market, and there were funds frantically absorbing the selling in the market at a low level. Investors with a keen sense of smell quickly realized that there may be funds entering the market to support the market. The first group of people who reacted began to stop selling and instead bought bets on a rebound.

Although the funds of Song Ling and others began to enter the market, the market sell-off was too turbulent. The Hang Seng Index fell to 9767 points before it was stabilized again. Then, in the face of the influx of massive buying funds, the Hang Seng Index began to soar upwards. The momentum is very fierce.

  …

"It's gone up, it's rebounded!" The employees of Tianyu Fund squatting in front of the computer let out a burst of exclamation. When they were around 10,000 points, a small number of people had already started to close their positions on the swap index, but most of them chose to continue Wait and see, at this time the strong rebound of the Hang Seng Index made their wishes come true.

"Hurry up, call the broker and let them close the position." This group of people is indeed a professional. After experiencing the initial annoyance and unwillingness, they carefully analyzed the trend of the market and quickly made a decision. Close out the short selling positions that you have already made a lot of money on hand.

At this time, in the stock index futures market, the short camp began to be in chaos. They couldn't figure out whether the rebound was short-lived or long-lasting. Except for some investors who were resolutely short-selling, other short-sellers chose to close their positions and leave the market. , or choose to turn around and go short, the trading volume of stock index futures increases rapidly.

In the most decisive spot market of Hong Kong stocks, with the entry of market-supporting funds, some desperate bottom-hunting funds also entered the market to buy Hong Kong stocks one after another. With the intervention of these funds, Hong Kong stocks began to accelerate their recovery, and soon hit 10,000 point of the pass.

It’s just different from when it fell. This time the Hang Seng Index stood at 10,000 points. It took a lot of effort. First, at 9990 points, the short sellers began to exert their strength to suppress the rising momentum of the Hang Seng Index. There was a huge amount of short selling orders, tens of thousands of lots, and it was impossible to trade for a while, but it was clear to the bulls that they were determined to put the Hang Seng Index back. At this time, people's hearts began to change again. Get unstable.

Ren Ruowei and Ma Jiarui wanted to ask Zhong Shi for his opinion, but when they opened the door of Zhong Shi's office, they suddenly found that the immediate boss was sleeping soundly in front of the computer, and the phone connected to his room The cord was also unplugged, and it was obvious that Zhong Shi didn't want to be disturbed.

   Seeing this scene, Ma and Ren looked at each other and smiled wryly, not knowing what to say.

  …

"How much money do we have left?" After a thrilling hour, Song Ling could finally breathe a sigh of relief, but at this moment, he didn't care about rest at all, and quickly asked the traders about the operation of their funds .

Because once the purchase amount exceeds 5%, the intention must be declared to the exchange, so traders are very careful to avoid this situation. Usually, when the purchase of a company’s shares is close to 4%, they choose to stop, and then Then go to buy the stock of another company. Naturally, most of these companies are dominated by state-owned enterprises.

   "It's less than 30 million, and our funds have almost been consumed. If there is any short selling, I'm afraid we won't be able to support it." The traders roughly counted the funds in the account and came to a conclusion that surprised Song Ling.

  Song Ling's face immediately changed. After walking back and forth for a few steps, he gritted his teeth and called the Hualian News Agency, asking for more funds.

  The situation of several other companies is also not much better. Billions of funds have been invested in the stock market, but the Hong Kong stock market has only been lifted by about 200 points, and then it has been weak. If it was normal, when billions of funds enter the market, how could one or two heavyweight stocks be boosted, driving the index to soar several hundred points, but at this time the entire market is filled with pessimism, and most of these funds have taken over from small investors. Selling instead of driving funds to buy up.

  …

In the United States, seeing that the goal has been achieved, Quantum Fund deliberately released a large short-selling order at the 10,000-point position, and withdrew it while the market was in confusion. Said that this position has far exceeded their imagination.

  After approaching 10,000 points, the Hang Seng Index began to linger, and even analysts were confused. Why did the previous surge suddenly disappear? Is this a toss up or is this a joke? And small stockholders and even institutions sitting in front of the TV can only wait dryly for a clear answer from these "famous mouths", and these analysts can only play riddles like sitting in meditation. he.

   The stagnation of Hong Kong stocks did not last long, and soon a large number of buyers entered the market again. Obviously, they were not intimidated by the short selling of stock index futures. In fact, they were originally a group. The Hang Seng Index rose again, and soon broke through 10,000 points under the expectations of the public, and returned to the ranks of five figures. After standing at 10,000 points, the Hang Seng Index continued to rebound and rebounded, breaking through 10,100, 10,200, 10,300, etc. mark, and finally rebounded to 10426 points.

So far, the whole day's trading has come to an end, and the Hang Seng Index has stepped out of a wave line at the bottom. Although it rebounded in the end, compared with the 1212 points plummeting all day, this increase is really limited. Riyi, the Hang Seng Index has fallen more than 2,000 points in a row.

   No one knows what happened. How could an ordinary rate hike turn into a "stock market crash" crash? Song Ling and the others might know a little about the final rebound, but they didn't know about the second rebound afterwards. And how the overwhelming fake news and the comprehensive sell-off including institutions caused it is impossible to know.

The most clear about all this is of course the international speculators headed by Tiger Fund. They have been preparing for this day for several months. After successfully arousing the herd effect, they have already made a lot of money, and the rest is How to close the short selling orders on hand one after another.

"Start from the daytime, buy Hong Kong dollars from the market, and close our positions as soon as possible!" Julian Robertson, who finished the day's trading, nodded in satisfaction. Although he didn't count the gains specifically, it was enough to make him very happy. All you have to do is to buy back the Hong Kong dollar position as soon as possible to reduce the loss, "Also, we can proceed to the next step!"

  …

International speculators can take a break, but Hong Kong is still in a state of chaos. Financial Secretary Cen Yinquan has to speak out, saying that Hong Kong's economic fundamentals are stable and there are no problems, so today's stock market is not The "stock market crash" is only due to the temporary speculative influence of external factors, so investors don't need to panic about it. He believes that in any case, the primary purpose of the Hong Kong government is to defend the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar. Although there was speculation in the market the night before, this speculation has been quelled.

As the unit in charge of monetary policy, the Monetary Authority also came out to speak. Ren Yigang said that the current increase in interest rates is only to combat Hong Kong dollar speculation. In fact, the day before, the Monetary Authority has successfully thwarted a large-scale short-selling operation by speculators. Judging from the performance of the Hong Kong foreign exchange market today, speculators are busy covering their positions, indicating that their speculative activities have failed.

  There are indications that this time the Hong Kong dollar speculation has come to an end.

   But, is that really the case?

  (end of this chapter)