The Pentium Era - South to North

The real estate market was booming in 2009, especially in first-tier cities and provincial capital cities. These cities are also the cities with the most concentrated resources, the most concentrated media, and the most developed Internet. In terms of dissatisfaction with high housing prices transmitted by the media and the Internet, It is mainly the voice of dissatisfaction among the masses in these cities.

The majority of second- and third-tier cities as well as the county level below are still ignorant of the term real estate, and housing prices are also tepid, just like an old hen hatching eggs, lying there without any movement for several years. Even in 2009, when housing prices in first-tier and provincial capital cities skyrocketed, real estate developers in these places could only feel envious.

There are only a handful of real estate developers in the entire city, and they are all piecemeal small developers. Such developers have a single source of funds. In addition to having a good relationship with the bank president, they can borrow part of the funds. This part of the funds, In fact, it is limited. Ten million is already the limit. No matter how much it is, even if the president wants to help you, he will not have the authority.

There are also few local banks. In addition to the five major state-owned banks of the Workers' and Peasants' China Construction Bank, there are also credit cooperatives. The reach of other joint-stock banks cannot reach that far.

If the loan funds are not enough, we have to rely on loans from relatives and friends and social financing.

Every time macro-control comes, they are the first to be affected. The credit scale is controlled and tightened. The higher-level banks first tighten and control these prefectural and county-level branches. In addition, they have few projects developed and their profits are limited. , I have basically no primitive accumulation. When life is hard, I can only rely on social financing, that is, loan sharking.

In 2008, the biggest impact was on the real estate developers in these small places. Some went bankrupt, some ran away, and half-finished projects were abandoned. Even the loan sharks themselves also ran away. , their money is collected from every household below, and if the developer runs away, they have no other way out but to follow.

Those who can't find money and can't find anyone, finally have no choice but to go to the government, so the local government becomes the main victim, and they are miserable.

For some real estate developers who could survive 2008, by 2009, although they could only watch the high housing prices, bank presidents finally became active and had some authority to grant development loans. In addition to the fact that half of these real estate developers are also builders themselves, a trickle of the RMB 4 trillion water has trickled down to the local governments in these places.

The local government started to carry out infrastructure construction, and they also won some projects. In 2009, the real estate developers in this part of the country breathed a sigh of relief.

At the end of 2009, they saw that macro-control was coming again and money was about to tighten again. They were frightened. The tragic situation of their colleagues who fell in 2008 was still vivid in their minds. They were uneasy and did not know this scene. , will it happen to him next?

Many people have begun to make up their mind to stop playing, and with the little money they still have, they are preparing to go abroad or retire. In counties like these in Zhejiang, this trend is even more obvious. They know that if they don’t have money, they may not be able to continue playing for a long time. I can't even borrow money from loan sharks.

The impact of 2008 was all-round. It not only impacted physical enterprises and real estate developers, but also loan sharks. If anyone is willing to do statistics, they will definitely find that it was like this in 2008, overnight. The number of loan sharks and various money brokers who have run away from time to time is no less than that of small and medium-sized enterprise owners.

If 2009 is a watershed for real estate, it is also a watershed for loan sharks. However, no media or researchers have ever seriously faced and studied this underground industry.

Beginning in 2009, the entire business model of the surviving and new loan shark companies began to change. The funds they lent began to become small and scattered. In the past, tens of millions were loaned out with just a signature. Well, one or two million is already considered a huge amount of money, and even if you are a big company, credit and reputation are no longer enough to borrow money, and all require physical collateral.

Moreover, the amount is getting smaller and smaller, and the guarantee measures need to be stronger and stronger. Eventually, loan sharking begins to separate from physical enterprises and real estate. It is very simple. If people have collateral, why are they looking for you and asking you for such a high price? What is the capital cost used for? Why don't we go directly to the bank?

No matter how the bank's credit scale is controlled, there is always a way, and no matter how it is regulated, mortgage loans will always be a welcome project for banks, especially those of credit unions.

Private funds that were freed from real enterprises and real estate began to enter the property market and stock market. When the stock market was also depressed and the property market began to be suppressed, some funds began to target agricultural products, frying garlic, stir-frying ginger, and stir-frying rice.

Some of the funds still remain in the hands of loan shark companies. They find that fewer and fewer companies come to them, but the money in their hands always has to go somewhere. They begin to turn to individuals and eventually evolve into consumption. loans, campus loans and various loans.

An interesting phenomenon is that when campus loans were at their most rampant, the phenomenon of loan sharking forcing entities to die one after another in the past few years has become very rare in Zhejiang. The reason is that because of the high threshold, loan sharking funds and private funds are no longer available. It may have flowed to real enterprises, and even loans between relatives and friends have become treacherous.

These are also things for later.

When Tan Shuzhen and others were dealing with the replacement of mortgages, the sales offices in various places were still booming, and funds continued to come in every day. They had unprecedented large-scale capital reserves. By December, various controls When measures came one after another, Tan Shuzhen felt that the time had come and they could start operating against the market trend.

Tan Shuzhen and Lao Tan said something they often said in the troupe. She said, brother, we can send the drama to the countryside.

Old Tan smiled, and he replied with a mantra that they used when they were young, words that Tan Shuzhen could also understand. He said, the world is vast and there is a lot to be done.

It was indeed the right time for them to go down at this time. The local government treated them all as guests. The small developers who were exhausted or were preparing to pack up and go abroad regarded them as nectar and timely rain. Tan Shuzhen and the others conquered the city and captured the land. Soon, their roots extended to every county in Zhejiang, especially the seven counties and cities below Hangzhou.

Tan Shuzhen has already decided to give up the stage in Shanghai and Hangzhou to those big brother companies with Chinese and Guo prefixes.

At this time, along with various real estate control measures, there was also a voice saying that in the future, central and state-owned enterprises should be restricted and step-by-step to withdraw from the real estate market.

When he read the news in the newspaper, Lao Tan asked Tan Shuzhen, had we made a wrong judgment? Don't let us give up the stage. Big brother did not appear, leaving opportunities for other real estate companies.

After Tan Shuzhen thought about it for a day, she told Lao Tan, I don't think so. This is just a delaying tactic, just an explanation. Big Brother, the earth king took too much in the second half of this year and caused trouble. This is just to extinguish the fire temporarily. The purpose is still We want to draw the fire to private real estate developers like us who do not have moral blood flowing in our veins.

Later, it was proved that Tan Shuzhen's judgment was correct. The so-called withdrawal of state-owned enterprises and central enterprises from the real estate industry was the biggest bad check issued at the end of 2009.

By the middle of 2010, even the dullest private real estate developers found that it was no longer possible for them to make a difference in first-tier cities.

Starting almost this year, private real estate developers in first-tier cities have been unable to acquire new land except for continuing to develop the existing land in their hands.

Even under the background of regulation, Big Brother is still as arrogant as an ox, leaving no chance for them.

Following this, they also turned their attention to the second and third lines, to the lower levels, and some even began to look abroad.

I don’t stay here, I just go around looking for food.

…

Tan Shuzhen called Zhang Chen and told him, Zhang Chen, I am very scared.

"What's wrong?" Zhang Chen asked.

"I don't dare to tell other people, I can only tell you." Tan Shuzhen said, "I don't know if my decision is right, I don't know for sure... Forget it, where are you?"

"In the company." Zhang Chen said.

"Then I'll come over now."

Zhang Chen said yes.

Ten minutes later, Tan Shuzhen arrived at Zhang Chen's office. Zhang Chen saw her coming in and asked, "What are you afraid of?"

"Give me water first, I'm dying of thirst." Tan Shuzhen said.

Zhang Chen went to the water dispenser to fill her with water.

"Is there any coffee?" Tan Shuzhen asked.

"I'll go, there are still a lot of demands." Zhang Chen scolded, but still made her a cup of instant coffee.

Tan Shuzhen said thank you. She said she was thirsty and wanted to drink coffee. But when she got the coffee, she was not in a hurry to drink it. Instead, she put it on the coffee table. She looked at Zhang Chen and said, Zhang Chen, I really don’t have any confidence in my heart. .

"What happened?" Zhang Chen asked.

"There is nothing specific, but if something happens, it will definitely be a big deal. As you know, we have basically given up on first-tier cities and shifted our focus to second-tier and third-tier cities and lower counties. We are even in Yongcheng. We have established three project companies," Tan Shuzhen said.

"I know, and I think you did the right thing." Zhang Chen said.

"How do you know I did it right?" Tan Shuzhen asked.

Zhang Chen said: "Feeling."

"Do you think it's useful?" Tan Shuzhen said, "I looked at the housing prices in various places, and I almost cried. For example, in Yongcheng, the housing prices are still two to three thousand per square meter. What's the use of this? After one project is completed, Even if it is sold out, the output value is not as good as when I sold half a building in Hangzhou, and the profit is even pitiful. How can a company as big as ours sustain projects like this?

"Also, even at this price, they may not be completely sold out. The annual transaction volume of houses in seven counties and cities in Hangzhou is not as good as that in one district of Hangzhou. Now that real estate regulation has begun, I don't know if it will The sales volume that followed was even more miserable.”

"What should we do?" Zhang Chen asked.

"I am getting more and more confused, so I came to ask you." Tan Shuzhen said, "I am sure that we will have no chance in the first-tier cities, but when we go down, I don't know if we have taken this step. right."

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