Survivorship Bias

Andrew's killing was very powerful and sure.An Wujiu glanced at Megan, her face was a little panicked, she looked very surprised.

Andrew repeated again: "The No. 11 prophet made a speech: No. [-] Megan is my killer. I will check No. [-] tonight, and No. [-] or No. [-] tomorrow night. I will wait to listen to the speech, and it may happen." change."

"I reported the tester's information in one breath because I was afraid that the wolf would explode. Since the wolf did not explode, I would like to talk about my mental journey. I was very nervous when I got the prophet card, because I knew that the prophet would have Wolves get up and jump, once I don't gain the trust of good people, I may be in trouble.

I thought about it for a long time last night, and I chose to test number five (Megan), because I learned that I was a prophet when the cards were released last night, so I observed the crowd specially, and I saw that number five had a serious expression, and his brows were Frowning, I felt that number five should at least have an identity, and I was checked out.I was very lucky to check the wolf, but because the order of speaking was random, I was not able to speak at the front, so I was still a little nervous. "

"Then No. 12 is an iron wolf on the court now, and the No.12 (Matsuura) who I danced with doesn't look like he will quit. He must not be a fake identity, he must be an iron wolf. NO.[-] is No. [-] and No. [-]. I don't believe that as a werewolf jumping prophet, he will not put his wolf teammates in his pending test, so I think there are wolves in these two.

But there are gargoyles on this board, and wolves and gargoyles don't meet at night, so it should be impossible for a wolf to put all two wolf teammates into his waiting room and make them the focus, so I think, in No. [-] and No. [-] Up to one wolf. "

As Andrew spoke, he glanced at An Wujiu.

"Player No. [-], I can actually recognize him as a good person. Because his campaign speech is to teach the true prophets in the post position how to jump and how to leave them for inspection. If they are wolves, they should hope that the real predictions don't jump well. They are good. Get up and weld.

If he did this to guide the Wolves to get up and weld jumps, he might as well jump by himself, and the possibility of getting the magic scepter is higher. "

"So I can temporarily release number one, and I will go to test number nine (Noah) in NO.12 pending inspection. I test number nine not because number nine is a child. Players should all have their own abilities, although they are of different ages, we should not use age to judge a person's ability, I recognize No. [-]'s ability, so I want to test this little sister."

"In addition," he continued, "No. [-] (Old Yu)'s speech was not cheated by No. [-]. Although his speech was more emotional, he sounded like a good person. If the Wolves want to play such a dirty game, then I will There is no other way, I can only temporarily ask him to be a good person.

Number 11 and number [-] are good people in my eyes, number [-] is a wolf, then I think number [-] (Sakura Fujido), number [-] (Zhou Yijue) and number [-] (Nanshan) get a wolf, number [-] is a fraudulent identity and The card of withdrawing from the election, the reason for withdrawing from the election is that I don’t want to divide the votes, so that the true prophet can get the status of the middle priest. This number four.If I sound like a good person when speaking after number four, I will check NO.[-] in front of me. "

He turned his head to look at Yang Ce. Yang Ce didn't have much expression on his face, but looked very calm.

"It's easier to deal with bilateral logic if you only have a civilian card on the field, and you are a good person if you think you are safe, which is the same as me, but I am more afraid of the Gargoyle's barb on the first day. Thinking about it, it is still possible. I am now I haven’t heard the speech on the [-]th yet, after the campaign is over, I will decide who I will be inspected for tomorrow night, anyway, tonight is to inspect Noah.”

Andrew looked around, "I talk to all the good people on the field. I am the only true prophet in the field. I will never quit the election. As a true prophet, I must get this magic scepter.

Otherwise, when the gargoyle exists, the good guy is very difficult to play. As long as the gargoyle lives to the third day, he can get up and let the wolf teammates self-destruct.I hope good people can think about it. Whether it is my mental journey of inspection or the reservation of candidates to be inspected, I have already respected my cards very much, and I have talked with everyone very clearly.I am a prophet, killing on the [-]th, checking the [-]th tonight, and checking the [-]th or [-]st tomorrow night.So be it. "

He finished his speech, and neither the sixth nor the eighth had an election, so it was directly Shen Ti's turn to be the seventh.

Shen Ti stretched his waist, as if he hadn't woken up yet, "I'm sorry, I didn't get enough sleep last night. Listening to your nagging made me even more tired, so I didn't give you breakfast."

After he finished speaking, he smiled casually, "There are two prophets jumping in front of me, and there are two people behind me, and one of them is a killer. If I dance a prophet, it may disturb the vision of good people, because I have a good chance of being elected unanimously."

As he spoke, he pointed to Nanshan, Wu You and Noah who did not participate in the election.

"Look at number six, my buddy, number eight, my little brother, number nine, my little sister, right? You may not be able to get this magic wand after I jump, so I won't play around."

"I'm not jumping prophets here, obviously I'm a good guy, but whenever I'm a wolf I'm jumping, it's very simple."

After finishing speaking, Shen Ti glanced at No. 12, then at No. [-], "Secondly, let me evaluate the two prophets currently on the field.

Let me tell you, Matsuura is in the front seat, and he sent gold water to No. [-]. No. [-]'s speech almost didn't directly stick to your face and said, "I'm not a good person, so I'll just die." So This number two must be a good person, otherwise the cultist will play too badly.

"So Matsuura's golden water to the second at this time, to be honest, the strength is very small. The second is a bright and good person who was blown out on the field, but fortunately, your speaking attitude is more like a true prophet, and you have a mental journey. If you remember correctly, you are nine or one, and this one is average.

No. 11 is Jin Shui, you recognize No. 100 but you have to test him, you are afraid that he will lie to you, just tell No.[-], he is An Wujiu, a player with a [-]% winning rate so far, if he wants Lie to you, in that position is the order before you, won't he take off the prophet?He was the first to do a full-fledged classic dance, and delivered a full-score speech. Can he not get votes? "

Shen Ti raised his eyebrows, "So you've found that his head is redundant. There are still so many people behind you who haven't spoken. Among these people, there must be some who are jumping and instigating. Find a test. Even if you come to test my No. [-], I think it is better than this No. [-]. In your eyes, is there a gargoyle that may barb? Then you think No. [-] is a good person and want to test him, is he? Is it a possible gargoyle in your eyes? Then you should point it out, but you didn't mention gargoyle at all.

These are the points that I think Matsuura Mori is not good for. "

"On the [-]th, Andrew gave the rear position to check and kill, and you gave the front position Jinshui, the strength is actually the same, but the [-]th is a little bit better. His follow-up two-night inspection of people is clearer than yours, and he also gives room for change.

As Shen Ti said, he turned his head towards Andrew, "Let me tell you, I think four should be tested. Among eleven and four, four should be tested. Four is standing here with squinting eyes and is eager to try. It's an identity at a glance. .”

"Anyway..." Shen Ti shrugged, "Both of you have the face of a prophet. Just this round alone, I definitely can't force one of them. I can only point out the problem. After half a circle, I think three The number is not good, the fraudulent identity is too obvious, and he is stuttering. No.11 can play both sides, which means that he has the same perspective as me, and there is no fixed side. I don’t stand on the side of the [-]th and the [-]th, and I can make two prophecies I'm definitely a good person at home. Last night I slept until dawn, but I still didn't get enough sleep. Hurry up, everyone, I'm going back to catch up on sleep when it's over."

After finishing speaking, Shen Ti sat down cross-legged on the spot, propped his face with one hand, and turned his head to look at Megan boredly, "Then let's perform a killing card show, I will admire you if you jump on the spot, okay, number four I don’t believe in jumping at the last position.”

"I passed."

An Wujiu listened to Shen Ti's speech quietly, feeling a little suspicious in his heart.

He pondered for a while, then turned to look at Megan No. [-] who was about to speak.

"I'm not a wolf." Megan pursed her lips, her brows still furrowed, "I actually don't understand why the prophet could find me. I frowned when I got the card last night, but it was because of me. I feel uncomfortable when I got a card with no special function, can't I frown?"

She pointed to Andrew, and said to the others: "I suggest that we vote out the number ten in this morning's festival. The number ten must be a wolf that leaps at the prophet."

After finishing speaking, Megan looked at the other people on the field, "Then... Andrew's wolf teammate must be No. [-] Shen Ti. He said that he would not stand in line, but he was helping No. [-] between the lines. The two of them must be together. side relations.

I’m a good person myself, and I’m planning to speak out in this round of election. I’m worried that I might vote wrong if I vote outside.

The prophet must be NO.12, this Matsuura brother, don’t you listen to his speech?I think it looks like a prophet. No.12 must be a real prophet, and I don’t believe in the prophets who jumped on the fourth.I have a national card, pass it. "

Everyone's attention was focused on Zhou Yijue. He was number four and the last player who participated in the election without speaking.

His red phoenix eyes were still full of smiles, and he turned his face slightly to look at Megan, "I was still waiting for you to take a picture of your identity, but in the end you took a picture of a person, it will be very difficult to get rid of this killing.

I'm a good person, and I'm not the center of attention after this round. Instead, I'm a voter. In fact, it's okay to test me. The prophet has found a good person and gave me a good identity. I don't need to explain myself. "

"However," Zhou Yijue looked at Yang Ce, "there is a small loophole in the logic of the No. 11 disk in the front position. It seems that this small loophole has been accepted by the prophet No. 12 Andrew, so I have to point it out.

You play against the logic, I can recognize you, but No. [-] An Wujiu is likely to be a wolf card, if he does not jump, it is likely to play the reverse logic of the reverse logic, if he jumps, it will naturally be Form a confrontation with the real prophet, and other players may choose to give tickets to another prophet because they are afraid of his strength, and they think the other one is not so deceitful.Even if he was really given these tickets and got the middle priest, others can beat him to have a team in the next round of speaking, because as long as An Wujiu jumps to the prophet, he will be a focus card that can never be picked. "

"No. [-] can of course foresee this situation, so he simply stopped jumping."

After finishing speaking, Zhou Yijue smiled again, "Of course, I didn't mean to call number one Iron Wolf, but just to add the logic chain of No. I will not judge, his identity will be clear the next day."

"I will not stand for the two prophets, I will withdraw, and the three can vote according to their own wishes."

After he finished speaking, he also took a step back and withdrew from the election.

[Enter exit time. ]

Other players who wanted to quit but hadn't quit also took advantage of this time to give up the campaign.

[Currently, players who also choose to participate in the election include No. 12 Andrew and No. [-] Matsuura Mori.Entering the voting time, please turn your back to the other players, player No. [-] Nanshan, No. [-] Wu You, and No. [-] Noah. There will be options in front of you. Please vote from the two candidates. ]

A ten-second countdown appeared above the middle.

After the end, before they turned around, An Wujiu had already seen the ticket form.It turned out to be suspended in the middle of the hall, just under the smooth and translucent obsidian.

[Player No. 12 Nanshan voted for No.[-] Matsuura Mori, player No. [-] Wu You and player No. [-] Noah voted for No. [-] Andrew. ]

[Voting ends, player number ten Andrew was elected priest, and has 1.5 times the number of votes and has the right to return votes. ]

[Now I will announce the death situation last night for everyone. ]

An Wujiu lowered his eyes.

Announcing it now, could it be said that the number of deaths each night will be released after the morning sacrifice, so the people who were killed the night before...

Did he die instantly?

[Congratulations, everyone, last night was Christmas Eve.Ask the middle priest to specify the order of speaking for this round, starting from your left or right. ]

Andrew thought for a while, "The right side."

[Okay, starting with Noah, player number nine, please speak. ]

Noah thought for a while, "I gave the ticket to No. 12, and there is no special reason. The two prophet brothers, I think the speeches are quite sincere, but when the Japanese brother No. [-] got up to speak, I I just waited and waited, waiting for him to find the gargoyle, but he didn't. I think it's very strange. If I take the prophet, I must be eager to find the gargoyle, or I can find the gargoyle through speech, and prophesy How can this ghost card be missing from everyone's field of vision?

Brother Andrew talked, and I think he is more like a prophet.

If I'm on the wrong side, there's nothing I can do, I'm a good person.Anyway, I'm just a kid, so you won't blame me if you're on the wrong side, right?Will definitely turn back if I find out I'm wrong.That's all. "

After she finished speaking, she looked at Wu You.

"No. 12 speaks." Wu You thought for a while, "I also voted for No. [-]. I think No. [-] has a better conversation and is better in all aspects. Although No. [-] Matsuura Mori has the sincerity of a prophet Speed, but the test is too coincidental, I can only say that the number three has lowered your prophetic face.

I think Andrew on the [-]th is a prophet. In this round, two wolves will be sent naked, and one will kill the other. Anyway, I will listen to the prophet and return the vote. "

Shen Ti was still sitting where he was, almost falling asleep, almost hitting his head on the lamp post.Wu You stretched out his foot, ready to kick him, but Shen Ti grabbed his ankle instead.

"Little friend, don't be so violent." Shen Ti let go of his ankle, rubbed his eyes, "I'm speaking, I'm number seven."

"I voted for No. [-] for the first two, and I always feel that something is not right."

He stretched his arms and stretched his waist, "Well, let me set up a two-sided wolf pit for you. If Andrew is a real prophet, then the wolf pit is four, five, twelve, six, and eight. One, if Matsuura is real, then it will be one on two or three, and then on five...or it may be that the wolf checks and kills the wolf, and the number nine may be the wolf teammate who remains in NO.12 pending inspection, and the eleventh barb counts as one , 2/3, 5/9, 10 and 11.

Anyway, I am a good person, no matter which side you are on, I will order all the wolf pits for you, I must be a good person, but if I am a wolf, I will directly send my teammates naked, no, I am not sure what I ordered No, after all, I am a closed-eyed player. I didn’t go out at night and didn’t see anyone. Let’s give you a sample. I’ve passed, and this round I might..."

Shen Ti thought for a while, "I'm a bit hesitant. I want to register the number three. If the number three cheats on my identity, I'm sorry. I will force her to blow herself up. Forget it, let's listen to the priest. "

He seemed to think of something, and said: "That No. [-] must be a good person, he is obviously a citizen, otherwise he wouldn't have jumped up and taught some prophets, and he didn't have the card to lead the team. Can’t tell? I’d like to hear about the identity of No. [-]. It’s over.”

When it was number six's turn, Nanshan's speaking style was in contrast to that of seriousness, which suddenly seemed much more stable and reliable.

"I voted for NO.12, because Matsuura had a saying that moved me, saying that he ran to the wolf to investigate at night, and wanted to make the most of this hole card. Although this reason sounds a bit mysterious, I thought Let him go. This round, I think the two prophets still have to talk. The statement made on the [-]th sounds like nothing wrong. The two left for investigation are also very organized, like a prophet. I am not on the right side now. , I have to listen again.

It feels like a lot of people have jumped out of the field. I am also a person. I don’t have a special skill card, so I can only listen to the words of the prophet.In addition, last night was Christmas Eve, and the witch had already used the antidote. I suggest that the witch come out to report the wound. Who died last night, who is Yinshui, can correct the perspective for us good people, and see it more clearly. "

"That's it, I'll pass first."

Megan watched No. 12 finish speaking, and then opened her mouth, "No. [-] asked me to take a photo of my identity during the campaign, so I can't take a photo of my identity. I'm a citizen, and I don't know how to find me. I'm sure I think Andrew is the iron wolf. He definitely is. Although he speaks well, his strength is not bad. I think he can organize these speeches. I am on the side of NO.[-]. Anyway, this round is not my round. , I want to make Andrew with Matsuura."

She spoke forcefully and went straight through.

Zhou Yijue smiled, "I didn't mean to beat No. [-] forcefully, don't be angry. I can recognize No. [-] as a good person, and I also think that this round of witches needs to come out to give us a straight perspective. Don't be afraid of witches, whoever will jump against you You can poison anyone, anyway, you can prove your identity, and you are not afraid of being dressed by wolves. Among all the priests, the tomb keeper is the one who needs to hide the most. On the first day, don't jump casually. This is all I can say, I am a good person, this Stand aside after listening to the witch's speech, and pass."

After him, it was No. [-] Fujido Sakura's turn.

"I didn't want to jump the identity." Todo Sakura sighed, "Let's jump, now I feel that good people can't see the situation clearly. I am a witch. I saved No. [-] Megan last night. This No. [-] was killed by a werewolf. A card with a knife. Then is this No. [-] Andrew an iron wolf, and he also took the Scepter? I will definitely destroy the Scepter this round. There are also cows on the water. I am a witch, whoever jumps with me poisons me."

"Think about it, if I wasn't a powerful card, would I cheat my identity? This would not push myself into the focus position. I must be a card that can prove my identity, right. Since NO .12 The True Prophet gave you gold water on the second, so I must apologize, I really don't really want to kill you. You are a good person, I stand up, then you should be able to see clearly now."

An Wujiu recalled that Lao Yu was shot and killed during the election campaign, his attitude was strong and emotional, and in the end he was crazy about wearing civilian clothes, and he suddenly felt something was wrong.

Lao Yu stared at Todo Sakura's face.

She said that, of course she could see clearly.

Because his old hole card is the real witch card!

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The author has something to say:

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