Investment Life

From the perspective of hedge funds, it is indeed too early to enter into copper futures. You must know that the Sumitomo incident was a long-term tug-of-war after several ups and downs. Lost 1995 billion US dollars until the defeat, experienced several ups and downs in the middle.First, in mid-1996, Binzhong Tainan relied on his own strength to resist the pressure of several major hedge funds and pulled the copper price from more than 40 US dollars to a high of 1995 US dollars. It fell to more than 2700 US dollars, and was pulled back to 3000 yuan by the stubborn Mr. Hammer. It was not until the copper price collapsed in June that the price plummeted from 2400 US dollars to 2700 US dollars. Spend half a year to get the interest rate difference of nearly a thousand dollars.However, some things are not as simple as imagined. If hedge funds are just a money game, then what is hidden under the tide of money is the truly terrible thing.

In this suppression of the Sumitomo Group, in addition to Quantum Fund, Tiger Fund and other hedge funds that specialize in financial derivatives, there are also some metal traders in Canada and Europe. These people who hold the spot are the ones who are eager to suppress The existence of the Sumitomo Group collapsed.You must know that since the early 80s, after Hamanaka Yasuo began to emerge in the London metal futures market, the entire London copper futures market has been directly or indirectly influenced by him in the past ten years. The Sumitomo Group is one of the four major financial groups in Japan. The industrial chains of metallurgy, machinery, petroleum, chemical industry, etc., have an annual sales of hundreds of billions of dollars. Such a strong alliance is a kind of pressure for the Western world.

Metals traders' need for control over commodity pricing is more complex and urgent than the purely profit-seeking pursuit of hedge funds.With such a demand, there will naturally be a conflict of interest, which led to the collapse of copper prices in 1996.The collapse of copper prices has had a knock-on effect on the copper industry worldwide, and countless companies have closed their doors in this crash.It can be said that this sniper attack on copper prices is just a cleansing action against the copper industry in the Western world. The benefits they obtained not only come from the Sumitomo family, but also from the huge global metal market.

With this kind of cognition, for this copper futures operation, we should not just stop at the level of "making money".Due to the take-off of China's economy, the price of copper has been on a long upward curve since 2002. By 2006, it once soared to a sky-high price of 8000 US dollars per ton.As a non-renewable resource, the reserves of copper, aluminum, iron and other minerals will only decrease in the future, and the shortage of spot is the reality. Unless there are new substitutes, this situation cannot be changed at all.If there is no way to break through this restraint, China will always be trapped in the field of resources and cannot move.

Therefore, the significance of the Sumitomo incident is even more important. This is not only a tactical operational issue, but also concerns the overall strategy.At present, Chen Yuanming’s net worth is not small in the hedge fund industry. You must know that Quantum Fund’s net worth at this time is only 50 billion, Tiger Fund may be less than 40 billion, and Yuanyang Fund already has a capital of nearly 15 billion. There are also 8 million US dollars in liquidity, which can already be used as a hunter in person.

But this money is far from enough to be "behind the scenes". In the face of the global metallurgical industry composed of giant chaebols and multinational groups, it is so small that it is hardly worth mentioning.The only ones that can really control the situation and obtain huge benefits from it are the existence of the magnitude of the national group.Guoxing, and the existences behind it, are the key to everything.And if the target is locked at this level, it is now necessary to start preparations and planning.

With such careful consideration, of course Chen Yuanming would not hide anything about Sun Guoqiang's question. He not only explained in detail the agreement between him and Mr. Robertson, but also the operation mode of the entire hedging plan.At the same time, it also briefly shared some current status of the world's copper industry.

Although Sun Guoqiang does not have much experience in futures, he is still very sensitive to the economy, especially the domestic economy.Long before they went abroad, someone in the Guoxing team had already calculated the index price co-integration relationship between Shanghai Aluminum and London Aluminum, and established a set of formulas and analysis curves that made Chen Yuanming feel a little dizzy. The fact that it lacks pricing power is commented.

After Guoxing entered the international aluminum futures market and made profits from it, such theoretical research has been further strengthened, and some experience has been integrated in combination with the fluctuations of Shanghai Aluminum. They are more sensitive. When the information is sufficient and they adapt to the rules of the international futures market step by step, their speed of accepting and understanding it is no worse than anyone else.

Therefore, after Chen Yuanming opened up the matter, Sun Guoqiang frowned slightly, "You mean, you want to cut into the pricing power dispute from this matter?"

"It's still too early to talk about pricing power." Chen Yuanming shook his head, "But mining companies are an ideal link to intervene. If this crackdown is really successful, there will be a wave of reshuffle of mining companies around the world, and Europe and the United States are busy dealing with it." In Japan, can we pry some corners?"

Given the national conditions, it is unrealistic to rush forward to grab the pricing power now, and keeping a low profile is the current development status in China.However, if you know the historical development track, you can roughly guess some behind-the-scenes things. How can you not be tempted by putting all kinds of convenient conditions there.It's just that Chen Yuanming is still a layman when it comes to industrial entities. The real mining industry is a key industry involving national strategic resources. It is beyond his control to grab this kind of cheapness from others.

Sun Guoqiang frowned even tighter, shook his head, and nodded again, "If we only refer to copper, we don't have much confidence. The countries with the largest copper production in the world are not within China's sphere of influence. Needless to say, South American countries such as Chile and Peru, Mexico is even more in the pocket of the United States, and Indonesia, the Philippines, and Kazakhstan are more or less hostile, especially Indonesia. It is not easy to set foot in these places at present... "

"However..." After a pause, he pointed at the stack of information on the Mexican financial crisis in front of him, "This crisis is a good starting point. It can be said that it is the over-liberalization that destroyed the Mexican economy. As for the financial system, as long as the Mexican side has a little thought, they should increase their industrial construction and cut into a destroyed economic system. It is much easier than usual. In your opinion, how long will it take for Mexico to recover? "

"Soon." Chen Yuanming replied very simply, "The financial system in North America cannot be chaotic, and the United States will not allow the Mexican financial market to continue to collapse. Robertson also told me at the party that the United States will begin to assist Mexico in the near future, helping It restores normal order in the financial market. But there will still be continued shocks, and Latin America will also be affected."

"Well." Sun Guoqiang nodded lightly, "What about the copper futures situation? In your opinion, how long can the Sumitomo Group last?"

"You don't have to worry about that." Chen Yuanming smiled, "This is a commodity pricing power. As long as the Sumitomo Group and Hamanaka Tainan are not stupid, they will not give up easily. I think it may last for a year or even a year and a half time."

"That is to say, when the economies of South America and Mexico have just entered a period of improvement, they may encounter another crisis in the copper industry?"

"Theoretically, it's not bad." Chen Yuanming answered very simply, and he was quite sure about this.

"Then you can give it a try..." Sun Guoqiang fell into deep thought again.

"Don't forget that if copper futures move up or down significantly, then other metals are likely to follow suit, so by 1996, we may not be facing opportunities for just one product."

Adding the chips one by one has formed a sufficiently attractive pie.Although China has established a strategic partnership with Brazil in 1993, Vale in Brazil is, after all, a rock that is too hard to chew.If adequate preparations can be made before such international changes, there may be some gains in the copper industry and even other mining industries. This requires not only economic but also political considerations.

But the stakes are high, and the details need to be worked out in detail.In the next few days, Sun Guoqiang had several consultations with Chen Yuanming one after another, and finally finalized the position of Guoxing Fund in this game.

At present, Guoxing Fund has made quite good gains in aluminum futures. Because the time of intervention is just right, it is mixed in the big short-selling team, and the operation is almost smooth.But after all, 20 billion is still a large enough number, which indirectly affects the rate of decline in aluminum prices. When this downward trend reaches the bottom line of those mining companies, they will inevitably start to rescue the market. As far as the current situation is concerned, this No later than the end of March.

At that time, the first wave of operations on copper futures had already begun. Under the large-scale offensive, Guoxing could slowly withdraw from aluminum futures and enter the copper futures market to fish in troubled waters, further depressing copper prices.If the copper price rebounds, it can quickly turn short into long, and use Binzhong's offensive to counter-suppress European and American groups. While buying time for the overall situation, it can also earn more benefits.And when the opportunity is right, it becomes the best choice to turn long and empty again, and to add insult to injury.

In this way, turning hands into clouds and hands into rain, no matter which side is strong and which side is weak, in this money game, Guoxing will always be invincible.And Chen Yuanming's Yuanyang Fund needs to mobilize a certain amount of funds for long-term operations. Although the profits in the early stage are worrisome, when the Sumitomo Group is completely defeated in the end, huge profits will naturally fall into the bag.

A money game with only the winner.

Of course, Sun Guoqiang would not have the slightest objection to this kind of operation method. Instead, he said with a smile, "If there is a crime of disrupting market order in the world, I guess we will all be convicted."

Hearing this, Chen Yuanming also showed a little smile, "In the age of great voyages, there must always be a pirate culture first, as long as the blade is not aimed at oneself."

Yes, this is the difference between marine civilization and farming civilization.This set of game rules established by Europe and the United States still retains the original appearance hundreds of years ago, but it is more hidden and cruel.If we don't learn from it, draw lessons from it, and even give it back to ourselves, China will never be able to re-emerge in this global village.

It's just the word "rise", which is easier said than done.

After getting the first-hand information about Mexico, and having a long-term plan for the futures market in the next two years, Sun Guoqiang took his team back home.It will take some time to enter the copper futures here. After attending several elite banquets, Chen Yuanming temporarily put down the operation of Yuanyang and turned back to Silicon Valley.If this year's futures market is just laying the groundwork for next year, then in Silicon Valley, it's the turn of harvest.