Investment Life

"Everyone has got the information about the international aluminum period, now let's analyze the trend of aluminum prices in the past two years."

The young man standing in front of the big conference table took out a roll of paper and quickly nailed it to the pvc display board beside him.

"There are generally only two factors that dominate the futures prices of international metals and other raw materials: supply and demand. This line is the change map of international aluminum prices from 1991 to 1993. We can clearly see a steep downward line. It fell rapidly from the high point at the end of 1991 to the lowest point of US$1993/ton at the end of 1."

"What caused the price of aluminum to plummet? What major events happened in the world in 1991, everyone here should be very clear. On December 1991, 12, the former Soviet Union disintegrated. As the leading world power, any changes in the Soviet Union will affect The world economy has had a major impact. As far as aluminum prices are concerned, due to the disintegration of the country, Russia's demand for aluminum has been greatly reduced. At the same time, in exchange for foreign exchange, a large number of aluminum ingots have been dumped into the Western market in an orderly manner. The balance of supply and demand has been broken, and aluminum prices have dropped accordingly. .”

Facing a room full of middle-aged and elderly people aged 3o-5o, the young man showed no fear on his face, but took a pointer and took a picture of the drawing with confidence, "But the sharp drop in aluminum prices is also a disaster for Russia itself. Any seller would want their product to drop in price. So there's a second table..."

As he spoke, he tore off the upper piece of paper with a swipe, revealing the column chart below.

"This is the world's aluminum production statistics from 1992 to 1993. We can clearly see signs of production reduction. According to the Brussels consultation meeting, Russia and several other major aluminum companies in the world have reached an agreement to jointly reduce production by 1 within two years. million tons, prompting the recovery of aluminum prices. Of course, it must be stated in advance that the 'big world' does not include China."

"So in 1994, aluminum prices started to rebound."

With this sentence, the chart turned to the next page, and a standard upward line appeared in front of everyone.

"The production reduction is effective. With the production reduction, the aluminum price is gradually rising steadily. According to the usual law, it will stabilize at around US$15 per ton and start to fluctuate up and down. However, this time the aluminum price did not follow these laws. , but suddenly increased, and it jumped to 2 US dollars / ton in one breath. Even the production reduction should not stimulate the rise of aluminum prices. What affects the price change..."

At first, I wanted to buy another pass, but a middle-aged man wearing glasses next to me interjected, "This year, my country's demand for aluminum ingots has increased significantly, imports have exceeded 1 million tons, and the price of aluminum in Shanghai has soared doubled, because This one?"

The slightly ostentatious introduction was interrupted, and the young man looked at everyone present with some embarrassment, "Indeed, there is only one reason why the price of aluminum has soared to surpass the highest historical record, and China is short of aluminum..."

This sentence made everyone in the room quiet. The man with glasses pondered for a moment, then turned to look at the people around him, "Xiao Chen, is this the economic aggregate problem you mentioned?"

Chen Yuanming nodded, "Yes, Sun Chu, this is the problem China is facing. It was for this reason that I operated on the aluminum futures last year. The soaring rate of Shanghai aluminum was astonishing. The demand for metals has exceeded the warning value, and the world is reducing production due to the agreement. One increase and one decrease, the price of aluminum will inevitably rise. Last year, I entered the market at around 14 US dollars, and only exited when it was above 19. In half a year, only the aluminum period I have gained a lot. In other words, if it was China who entered the market at that time—rather than myself—and got enough single orders, then we can use futures to make up for the losses caused by imports, and even achieve The point at which market prices are controlled.”

"Like what you said about Sumitomo Group's manipulation of copper prices?"

"This is the so-called pricing power. Having an absolute amount of products, or determining the number of futures contracts in the market, is crucial to China's future development. Low-priced metals have turned into steel, gold, and oil, so what will happen to the futures market?"

Most people in the room didn't answer these words, only the young man who was still standing by the table smiled slightly, "It's like running into an elephant in a shallow pool, the water level will soar."

A very funny sentence, but too many people can't laugh out loud.Chen Yuanming shook his head lightly, "Xiao Tang, thank you for your explanation, I will talk about other questions later."

Hearing Chen Yuanming's words, the young man simply nodded and sat down beside the pvc board.This is Chen Yuanming's recently hired assistant, Tang Hao, who just graduated from the New York University Business School. The problem is that the style is too westernized, and it is inevitable to be a bit exaggerated in the Chinese political circle. There were more than one or two frowns in the conference room just now.

It's a talent, but it still needs to be polished, so let's put it around and practice it.For this shortcoming, Chen Yuanming can still bear it, at least he can fully understand what he said, and organize the corresponding materials, which will be of great help.

Seeming to be digesting what he just heard, Sun Guoqiang thought for a moment before answering, "Is this why you think aluminum prices will fall this year? Because of China's production?"

"Not only from China, but also from the world." Chen Yuanming's voice was a little more determined, "Reducing production is not a good thing for any business, especially when China, a behemoth, enters the market and becomes a buyer. By this year, it is estimated that there will be more Some aluminum factories will reopen to catch up with this trend. But at the same time, China itself will not let go of aluminum production, right? Import means spending money, too much import will greatly curb the development of the country Speed, I estimate that domestic aluminum factories will also start production with all their strength this year, with these two synergies, how can aluminum prices not fall."

"Will it fall soon?" Sun Guoqiang asked.

"It should be at the beginning. The current futures price has deviated from the actual value, so once production starts to increase, it will fall immediately. But China cannot stop production in one go, and there are just as many international financial institutions manipulating the price of aluminum futures. Therefore, after a period of decline, aluminum prices will rebound. If we choose to short, we are running out of time."

No one came to ask how long the rebound period would be. Most people began to read the materials in hand, and some whispered and exchanged opinions.The atmosphere at the venue was not very warm, but from Sun Guoqiang's eyes, Chen Yuanming had already seen affirmative expressions.Regardless of the tone of Tang Hao's explanation, the materials he prepared are detailed enough, and the pictures and words are enough to explain everything.

With a consensus, the next step is the details.Of course, the meeting will not only be explained by consultants, there are also many discussions on organizational structure and risk value.Now that the Chinese New Year is approaching, the heating in Beijing is at its peak, and the heating in this meeting room is also doing quite well. The room is warm and comfortable, and no one smokes, only a faint scent of tea wafting from the nostrils.After a while, Chen Yuanming felt that his eyelids were heavy, his concentration was greatly reduced, and he began to feel sleepy.

Fortunately, the meeting was not too long. After struggling through the remaining long time, Chen Yuanming shook hands with several leaders of the foundation and took Tang Hao out of the gate after shaking hands.Today is a cloudy day, with howling cold wind and dense clouds, it seems that a heavy snow is coming, and being blown by the cold wind, Chen Yuanming shivered and finally woke up a little.

Standing beside the car and rubbing the Qingming acupoint, he raised his head and said to Tang Hao, "You go back first, continue to sort out the information on the copper period, don't forget the changes in the US hedge funds, the aluminum period is just a small matter, the copper period That's what really needs to be watched..."

"Okay, what about you, boss? Do you want to go back to Zhongguancun?" Tang Hao had no objection. Beijing's winter is too cold, and he wished he could stay in the heating room all day long.

Chen Yuanming looked at the sky, "I still have a small appointment, see you in Zhongguancun tomorrow."

After dismissing the assistant, Chen Yuanming rubbed his face with his hands, exhaled a breath of white air, and was about to open the car door when a voice came from behind him.

"Yuanming, continue."

Chen Yuanming was taken aback, and out of the corner of his eye, he saw something flying towards him. The position was so good that he involuntarily stretched out his hand to catch it in his palm.

Spreading his palms, Chen Yuanming looked intently.It was a PHS. It was painted in the familiar sea blue color, but the color was richer and more beautiful. The fuselage was also a circle smaller than the last time I got it. It was similar to a palm, and the lower part was slightly concave, showing a beautiful arc. Linear.Chen Yuanming raised his head and looked at the person coming. "You dare to throw this thing, what if I don't catch it?"

"The things in our house are resistant to falling." Xiao Junyi replied with a smile, walking so fast that even the scarf around his neck fluttered in the wind, making him even more radiant. "This time it's a genuine second-generation machine, and it can really get through."

"Successful?" Chen Yuanming was taken aback for a moment before he understood, "Has the PHS service in Beijing been opened?"

"Of course, after a long time of pinching with the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications, I finally let go. This is your number, and the one below is mine. Don't forget."

A small card was stuffed over, with only two numbers written on it, Chen Yuanming smiled, "These two numbers seem to be quite high..."

"That's right, special number selection." With a grin, Xiao Junyi opened the car door and made a gesture of invitation to Chen Yuanming, "Are you going to see Anxin's consultant today? By the way?"

Chen Yuanming smiled, did not refuse, and simply got into the car.

It's winter now, the heater is fully turned on in the car, and the windows are tightly closed. Even the Grand Cherokee I am familiar with feels a little stuffy.Chen Yuanming sat on the back of the sofa, lowered his eyes, and played with the PHS in his hand, "Now that the business has developed, we can't ignore the version upgrade, and the research and development of real mobile phones. How is the progress?"

Xiao Junyi has long been used to Chen Yuanming's habit of not forgetting his business for a moment, and he leaned back in his chair leisurely, "It's still in full swing, my brother doesn't know how many parts have been dismantled, the main reason is that there are some difficulties in the integrated chip, and it is said that I am trying to analyze it. .”

"You can't just analyze the existing content, close-to-use is the key, such as how to build the phone book into the phone, how to display the name of the caller, even if an additional alarm clock and calculator are attached..."

I pressed my fingers on the PHS for a long time, but I couldn't find any familiar operations. Chen Yuanming stopped with a wry smile. What was he thinking? This is not the kind of complicated mobile phone of later generations...

"To put it simply, this thing is so big, and the effort required to add any additional function is amazing. Now our manufacturing capacity is still very limited, and it's not that fast. It's just the kind of message you mentioned using PHS The engineers in the factory are very interested in the idea. This is somewhat similar to the function of a pager, but how to automate it is a problem, and how to enter Chinese characters on the mobile phone by yourself? It is impossible to call the pager to let them Do it for me..."

"Key input method... This needs to be communicated with the Chinese character encoding technicians. It is best if it can be outsourced. Now the Chinese character system at Founder of Peking University is very good. You can try Li various things... But it is the most convenient Or just write it by hand..."

"What?" The other party's voice was a little low, Xiao Junyi couldn't help but move a little closer, and listened carefully, "Why do you write by hand..."

"Touch screen technology, using an electronic pen to type in, is just like writing on paper... I heard Jonathan said before that the United States had related research and development two years ago, but their direction was wrong. How can English be used? Start writing, Chinese should use this..."

"Someone has already started research?" Xiao Junyi became more interested. "Then what is the name of the company? Can we cooperate? If we can write Chinese characters directly, it will be much more convenient."

"Go, the name is. It's like... off..."

The sound became smaller and smaller, cut off by a small impact.The blue PHS slipped from his fingers and fell into the carpet at his feet.Chen Yuanming's head was completely tilted on the back of the chair, and he fell asleep unconsciously.

Looking at the scene in front of him, Xiao Junyi couldn't help but laugh. How long has it been since he got in the car?I can fall asleep just talking about it, I'm too busy lately... That's what I said, but what surged up in my heart was not pure helplessness, but a mixture of worry and a little heartache.

His eyes involuntarily scanned the man's face.After falling into a deep sleep, the strange solemnity on Chen Yuanming's face dissipated and faded away. He no longer looked old and solemn, but looked like a real young man. Except for the faint shadow under his eyes, there was no trace of time imprinted, with a trace of carefree innocence.

The forehead hair gently covered the eyelids, the eyelashes trembled slightly, and it seemed that the covered pair of black eyes would not rest in sleep.The mouth was opened slightly stupidly, and occasionally a raving sound came out, but the shoulders were completely relaxed, leaning there loosely, as if wanting to find some support...

After being stunned for a moment, Xiao Junyi moved a few steps slightly, got close to him, and bent down to pick up the PHS that fell on the ground.But he didn't return the machine, nor did he wake up the sleeping person. He just moved his shoulders gently so that the other person could use his strength to sleep more smoothly and comfortably...

Raising his wrist to check the time, Xiao Junyi whispered to the driver, "Drive slowly, find a parking lot when you get there, there is still more than an hour, don't worry."

Under this order, the speed of the car slowed down a little bit. After a while, snowflakes gradually floated outside the car window, ranging from dots to heavy snow. The falling snow covered the sight. Looking out the window, it seemed like It was sealed in a small space isolated from the world.

As a qualified dude, Xiao Junyi has never stopped to admire the falling snowflakes, and it has nothing to do with isolation and comfort.But at this moment, he sat peacefully in the back seat of this small car, hoping that time would become slower and more peaceful.

The hand holding the PHS was placed on the sofa chair, leaning gently against the other slightly hanging arm.