Shadow of great britain

Louis Bonaparte had thought that he could isolate the North German Confederation from the South German states and take advantage of the discontent in the regions that had recently been annexed to Prussia. In that case, the French army would be able to control the lines of communication between the north and the south, forcing Prussia to hastily transfer all its existing troops to the Rhine, regardless of the degree of their combat readiness. In this way, the entire process of Prussia's mobilization would be disrupted, and the invading French army would be able to win the battle and defeat the Prussian troops that came from various places one by one.

However, according to my calculations, the total number of troops that France can mobilize is 340 battalions, and France cannot strengthen its army with new and combat-capable troops before the beginning of September. The Prussian army alone has 950,000 people in North Germany, and this is their advantage. The longer the decisive battle is postponed, the more obvious this advantage will be, and by the end of September, the effect of this advantage will reach its peak.

Therefore, when our Emperor Louis Bonaparte brought the Queen to the battlefield yesterday, his failure was almost doomed, and the hope that France would succeed had actually entered the countdown. This hope would become increasingly slim until it was dissipated in the smell of gunpowder.

——Military column of Pall Mall News, July 29, 1870

Minutes of the meeting of the Intelligence Committee of the British Cabinet Office on July 17, 1870

Topic: The decision-making position of the British government in the possible Franco-Prussian War

Moderator: Sir Arthur Hastings, Secretary General of the Cabinet Office and the chief civil servant of the United Kingdom

Participants: Sir Charles Trewilliam, Permanent Under-Secretary of the Treasury, Sir August Schneider, Permanent Under-Secretary of the Foreign Office, Sir Elder Carter, Permanent Under-Secretary of the Admiralty, Sir Stanford Northcote, Permanent Under-Secretary of the War Office, Sir Alan Pinkerton, Director of the Secret Intelligence Service of the Permanent Under-Secretary of the Foreign Office, Sir Adam Flanders, Director of the National Security Service of the Permanent Under-Secretary of the Home Office...

Main agenda: The Secret Intelligence Service, the National Security Service, the Government Communications Headquarters, the Military Intelligence Staff and the Industrial Intelligence Center report to the Intelligence Committee of the Cabinet Office on intelligence work related to France and Prussia, and review telegrams from the foreign ministries of France, Prussia, Russia, Austria and other European countries.

Speech record:

Sir Allen Pinkerton: "According to the report of the officers of the Secret Intelligence Service's intelligence station in France, at the cabinet meeting held at the Tuileries Palace on the morning of the 14th, the ministers of the French Empire were indecisive on the issue of war or peace. But on the evening of the 14th, Napoleon III held another temporary cabinet meeting in Saint-Cloud. This meeting excluded two ministers who advocated peace, but Queen Eugenie attended the meeting and publicly expressed to the emperor the view that "national honor requires war."

The social atmosphere in Paris was already on the eve of a riot. The people filled the streets, shouting slogans such as "Down with Bismarck, fight to the Rhine River." The huge parade even forced the route of the public carriage to be changed. We have reason to believe that Napoleon III The king and his cabinet have been under great pressure from public opinion, and the hope for peace has become increasingly slim. France's decision to call up reservists is not to intimidate Prussia, but the two countries are really standing on the brink of war. "

Sir Adam Flanders: "Napoleon III conveyed his request for an alliance to us in an extremely humble manner through the private channel of the National Security Agency. According to his sincere words in the letter and the current domestic situation and external environment in France. The National Security Agency intelligence department initially judged that Napoleon III's policy of trying to find a balance between the various factions in France has been declared bankrupt.

According to statistics, in the election held last year, the votes for the candidates of Napoleon III's government and the votes for the opposition were 4.45 million to 3.35 million. . Judging from the votes, in the past decade, the candidates nominated by the government have been losing their advantages, and the government's control over the elections has been gradually weakening.

The loss of advantages and the tilt of the Empire State have also caused Napoleon III's political operations to begin to deform and distort, and brought him an unprecedented sense of frustration. In this diplomatic action against Prussia, he first accepted the influence of the left, and then began to support the right's claims. In the wave of angry public opinion, he has gradually lost his usual calmness.

However, our intelligence officer believes that Napoleon III still advocates peace, and he is very aware of the fatal danger he is about to face. Thiers is still stubbornly demanding peace, but Napoleon III no longer dares to stand up and publicly support his A capable general.

Judging from the social atmosphere in Paris at that time, Napoleon III did need a brilliant military victory to restore his remaining prestige. However, according to the analysis of the Military Intelligence Staff, France was not ready for a full-scale war with Prussia at this time. According to the report of our intelligence officers in Prussia, Prussia had already started a comprehensive reform of the mobilization system many years ago.

In the war between Prussia and Austria, the Prussians mobilized 280,000 troops to the Austrian border in just one month. Our combat staff came to an astonishing point of view after analyzing the documents summarized by the intelligence officers. Once Prussia ordered a national mobilization, it would transport troops along six railway lines to the area between the Moselle River and the Rhine River.

Then, on the 12th day, the first Prussian troops will be able to disembark near the French border. On the 15th day, the 1st and 2nd Bavarian armies, a total of two armies, will arrive there. On the 20th day, the number of frontline troops will increase to 300,000. On the 24th day, the baggage trains of the Prussian armies will arrive one after another and immediately supply the frontline troops.

If the Prussians choose to incorporate the 1st and 2nd Bavarian armies into the 3rd Army, the army will increase to 130,000, and the total Prussian frontline force will reach 400,000. When the 1st, 2nd, and 4th armies are concentrated and go to the front on the 30th day, even if conservatively estimated, the Prussians will have 550,000 to 600,000 combat troops.

As for France, even if we make the most optimistic estimate, the guy who most admires the French Army in the Military Staff Intelligence Department does not agree that Napoleon III can assemble more than 300,000 troops by the end of July. Although the Paris newspapers are full of optimism about this war, saying that "a French platoon can easily defeat a Prussian company", our military staff obviously does not think so. "

Sir Arthur Hastings: "What is the situation in the Foreign Office? Our old Foreign Secretary, the Earl of Clarendon, has just died in office. What does the new Foreign Secretary, the Earl of Granville, think about the Franco-Prussian War?"

Sir August Schneider: "The new minister is still familiar with the work, but his position is very consistent with the Prime Minister. He supports patient and friendly dialogue and non-alignment. He is a pacifist of the Liberal Party. In addition, the Earl of Granville's easy-going personality is also very consistent with the current reform tone in Britain. In any way, he is the most suitable person to be the speaker of the Foreign Office in the current situation. All colleagues in the Foreign Office are very happy to see that the Prime Minister has accepted your advice after careful consideration and appointed the Earl of Granville to replace the Earl of Clarendon. "

Sir Arthur Hastings: "The Prime Minister has a very good vision. ”

All: “We agree.”

Sir August Schneider: “Sir, what is the cabinet’s response to Napoleon III’s request for help?”

Sir Arthur Hastings: “The report of the Military Staff on the comparison of Prussian and French military strength is very useful. But for the cabinet, these data are worthless. Although in Paris, people shouted “Straight to Berlin” and played the “Marseillaise” to stimulate vitality, the country involved in the war was not united in spirit.

The King of Prussia can lose several battles, but for my friend old Louis, defeat means revolution. He wanted everyone to support him, but he never considered that everyone’s support also meant that no one supported him to a certain extent, and now he has no room for maneuver.

Although Britain currently pursues a policy of non-alignment, if France can really become our sincere friend, I don’t think the cabinet will resolutely reject it. We need a strong continental ally to help us deal with Russia. But the Second French Empire, which is in danger of being destroyed, will never be a suitable choice.

Louis has put himself on the table of opportunists, so we can only judge him by his value. But it is obvious that he is not worth much now. Now, 37 years later, the surname Bonaparte has become worthless. "

Sir August Schneider: "Yes, sir."

Sir Arthur Hastings: "But..."

Sir August Schneider: "Sir?"

Sir Arthur Hastings: "Tell Louis that we have left a ship for him in Calais, and he can come back the same way he left in the past. By the way, warn Bismarck that bastard that he sent people to spread false news in London. We have a very clear grasp of it. The Times was played around by him and willingly published the news that France would invade Belgium, making the people of Britain furious at France's fabricated atrocities. However, the fact that the press and the people were kept in the dark does not mean that our cabinet did not know that he was fishing in troubled waters.

His tactics were used by Lincoln in London during the Civil War. Even if the British intelligence agencies are donkeys, they will not fall in the same place twice. In addition, if Prussia is still obsessed with sending industrial spies to London in batches, we cannot rule out the possibility of standing on the side of France in the war. I am not as young as I used to be, but that doesn't mean I can't kick his ass as hard as I did back then. ”

--"Minutes of the British Cabinet Office Meeting in the 19th Century"

The extraordinary energy and enthusiasm of the German Line Infantry Regiment and the attitude of the British soldiers in the siege of Crimea are also typical of soldiers. Although not many people were optimistic about them before the war, they still defeated their neighbors on the other side of the river who often wore peaked caps with their impressive fighting spirit.

According to the front-line news of our reporter, on January 18, 1871, on this great day, the honorable King William I of Prussia ascended the throne at the Palace of Versailles outside Paris under the witness of tens of thousands of German soldiers, and was officially crowned as the Emperor of the German Empire.

--"The Times"

Breock Detective Agency.

Leaning on the sofa by the window, Arthur drank black tea while reading the headlines of the "Constitution" today.

Today's newspaper layout is very interesting. There is no text on it, only a cartoon. Even illiterate people can easily understand the content of the newspaper.

The background of the cartoon is the Kaidaosai Mansion in the fire. A carriage full of explosives is rushing towards the gate of the mansion, and the object of the carriage is a pear wearing a military uniform, holding an umbrella, and running for his life in panic.

Next to the pear, there is a young man wearing Napoleon's iconic bicorne hat and the imperial eagle flag. Needless to say, this young man is most likely Louis.

Parisian artists have always been so imaginative. Although the censorship of the French publishing industry is much greater than that of London, this has not prevented them from making various moves in a small space.

In this regard, Arthur feels that the media on Fleet Street in London should learn more. Compared with their counterparts in Paris, their cartoon level is still naive.

And on the coffee table in front of Arthur, there is also a sorted document.

That is the result of Arthur's work last night, the police reform part of the Constitution of the Kingdom of Hanover.

During this time in Paris, Fouché's memoirs and his letters preserved in the French embassy gave Arthur a lot of inspiration on police reform.

For Hanover, copying Scotland Yard in its entirety would be too loose to be accepted by local conservatives, while copying France's police system in its entirety would anger the liberals.

And now this new version that combines British and French experience, Arthur believes, is absolutely very suitable for the constitution of the Kingdom of Hanover.

Since the Hanoverian police reform does not touch Arthur's own interests at all, almost every paragraph of his words is out of public interest, and he even added a clause that the police force is not allowed to do business.

With such a resume, even if Arthur has never made any achievements in his later life, he can still brag to his juniors in his later years that he did three main things when he was young.

First, the basic structure of the police intelligence department of Scotland Yard was established.

The second is to add the word "Royal" to the front of the Greater London Police.

The third is the "Arthur Hastings Principle".

If there is any achievement, it is that the police force of the Kingdom of Hanover is not allowed to engage in business, which has a great impact on the fate of the German police. In addition, the London riots in 1832 were also very big...

I am ashamed to say that I have only made a small contribution. Thank you all...

"Brother Arthur!"

Arthur just thought of this when he suddenly heard the laughter of Victor and Dumas coming from the front.

The two happily carried a painting to the second floor of the office, shouting as they walked: "Arthur, come and help."