Shadow of great britain

"Although I have no personal relationship with Prince Czartoryski, there is indeed a hint of his views on the two Tsars in his article published in The Economist."

Arthur recalled Prince Czartoryski's manuscript and said: "As a young tsar who grew up in the Russian court, Alexander I wanted to cheer up, but he was wavering. He was not as majestic as his unfortunate father Paul I. Impulsive and moody, he was taught by the Swiss democrat La Alp and yearned for the lofty ideals of France in 1789.

However, as the son of Paul I, it was difficult for him to get rid of the traditional nature of successive tsars to expand territories. His bright blue eyes, his graceful and tall figure, his high eyebrows and wide forehead, and his tightly pursed lips all gave him an air of energy.

He is physically strong and likes to show off his power, which seems to motivate him to complete the unfinished work of Catherine II on Turkey, and use the waves of the Danube to wash away the regrets that he still cannot forget because of his unintentional participation in the patricide conspiracy. Feelings. "

Talleyrand nodded slightly when he heard this and said: "These words are quite objective. Compared with Nicholas I, Alexander I not only has an innocent and innocent personality that is very lovable, but also knows how to respect the natural order and existing principles of Europe. "

Arthur asked: "You have been mentioning this since the beginning, so what is the natural order and existing principles of Europe."

Talleyrand explained unhurriedly: "The so-called natural order and existing principles of Europe are that the power of each country can only operate within the scope of its strategic limits. The first to realize this was the leader France goes to the great Cardinal Richelieu.

When he was dying, he warned Louis XIII: "Never invade the Netherlands. It will only make the uncontrollable British stronger and is the biggest stupidity." ’

For France at that time, the secret to maintaining its status lay in two points.

First: Don’t weaken the Netherlands too much and let these sea coachmen become a help to contain Britain. As long as the Netherlands is still there, France’s land hegemony can be stable.

Second: Maintain the division of the German region in Central Europe and the Italian city-states in Southern Europe. As long as their unification trend is prevented, France's hegemony in Europe will be as stable as a mountain.

Unfortunately, Bishop Richelieu's strategy for France was broken by the shortsightedness of Louis XIV. He united with the British to defeat the Dutch and exceeded France's strategic limits. If we only look at it within the scope of a decade or two, France's conquest of the Netherlands seems to have expanded our national power.

But in fact, we lost far more than we gained. Without the control of the Dutch, the British soared into the sky, and France also lost its dominance of the European oceans. Therefore, from then on, all France could hope for was European land hegemony. "

When Arthur heard this, he just took a spoon and stirred the soup bowl in front of him: "I'm not a diplomat, so I can't understand your words deeply. But from the perspective of a history college student, your opinion It is indeed interesting. However, after you told me all these personal secrets, aren't you worried that I will turn around and bring this paragraph to our Ministry of Foreign Affairs? Or, do you really hope that I can do this? "

Talleyrand raised his eyebrows and pursed his lips and smiled: "Arthur, on the one hand, you take yourself too lightly. In my eyes, you are not just a history college student, and I am not telling you this just to tell a story. , and I believe you can definitely understand it deeply.

But on the other hand, you take yourself too seriously. I do not think that your taking these words to the Foreign Office will have any effect on your Foreign Secretary, Viscount Palmerston. His hatred of France was deep-rooted. At the same time, he was also wary of Austria's expansion of power in central and southern Europe.

But what is strange to me is that he seems to be only concerned about the Russian national strategy of continuing to advance westward and trying to control Eastern Europe and West Asia. If he is worried that supporting Poland will lead to the emergence of a pro-French regime there, then he can discuss this issue with me face to face.

Since we can talk about Belgium, why can’t everyone sit down and talk about Poland in peace? He still does not understand the concept of strategic limits. A powerful Russia is far more appalling than a powerful France.

He was so focused on the limits of struggle at the tactical level that he neglected competitive thinking at the strategic level. You should know that the center of the world will always be on the continental island composed of Europe and Asia. This is determined by many factors such as population, economy, history and culture.

The strategic limits of France are determined. When France is strong, the limits of our control can only be limited to the Iberian Peninsula, the Apennine Peninsula and the German plains. If it is farther than this, even if France can control it in a short time, this fragile control can easily be broken by external forces.

But Russia is different. Its geographical location determines that it is the only country in the world that has the opportunity to establish continental hegemony in Europe and Asia at the same time. "

When Arthur heard Talleyrand's words, he looked at Talleyrand with a rather complicated mood.

When Prince Czartoryski proposed in The Economist that a unified Prussia would threaten the European order, so Poland's independence must be maintained in order to contain it, Arthur was already quite surprised by the accuracy of this prediction. .

And now Talleyrand was peddling the 'Russian threat theory' in front of him, which made Arthur have to give a thumbs up to the outstanding vision of this group of diplomatic activists.

However, before agreeing with Talleyrand, he still planned to listen to the old cripple's analysis of the specific reasons.

Arthur asked: "Why do you say that?"

Talleyrand commented lightly: "What I say is naturally justified. Although I have no enmity with Russia, and even had a good relationship with their predecessor, Tsar Alexander I, my personal feelings cannot override On top of facts.

In my opinion, Russia's geographical location and traditional values ​​determine that once Russia becomes stronger, it will become the most unstable factor in the entire Eurasian continent and even the world.

Due to its vast territory and its high latitude, it has become the only German state in the world that can threaten Northern Europe through its military presence on the Kola Peninsula and central Europe through the Baltic Sea. It can also cross the Caspian Sea. It launched an attack on the Dardanelles and the Bosporus of the Ottoman Empire, and could also cross the Caucasus Mountains to attack the Kingdom of Persia in Western Asia.

If its power is strong enough, even the Central Asia region located at the foot of the Altai Mountains and the Far East region below Siberia will all be under its control. Worse, it also controls Alaska via the Bering Strait. If it could develop that area, then Britain's presence in North America would also be threatened. "

Arthur just laughed softly when he heard this: "I can understand your worries, but in my opinion, Viscount Palmerston is obviously more worried about the other end of the English Channel than Alaska in the Bering Strait."

Talleyrand nodded and said: "So this is the problem. He was so wary of France that he forgot that we can actually cooperate with each other. After the Netherlands was defeated, France has completely lost the possibility of dominating Europe on its own. The destruction of the Revolution and subsequent Napoleonic Wars put our land hegemony in Europe in jeopardy.

As for Britain, you do not seek to dominate the European continent. You obviously care more about protecting your trade routes than carrying guns and fighting with mainland countries. Therefore, you must ultimately find a reliable partner to cooperate with in Europe to ensure that your influence in Europe will not continue to decline. But with all due respect, cooperation with the Russians is obviously more dangerous than cooperation with the French. In particular, he cooperated with Nicholas I, the current Tsar of Russia. "

Arthur asked: "You have been mentioning the noble Emperor in the St. Petersburg Palace since just now. Where does your anxiety come from?"

Talleyrand picked up a napkin and wiped his hands: "Arthur, you are a police officer of Scotland Yard, so it's okay if you don't know the influential figures in Europe, but people like me must know everything about the people who can influence the policies of various countries. .So, I believe the same goes for your Foreign Secretary, Viscount Palmerston.

Compared with his brother Alexander I, Nicholas I had a clearer purpose, a tougher will, and a tougher and iron-blooded hand. In other words, he was more czar than Alexander I. Unfortunately, the Decembrist uprising broke out when he came to power. So this adds a touch of sensitivity and suspicion to his character.

Also determined to maintain the monarchy, Metternich of Austria was far easier to deal with than His Majesty the Tsar. If Britain is not going to get involved in Poland, fine, I'll accept that. But I also want to share with you a little news I just got, which will also help support my point of view. "

Arthur smiled and asked: "Would it embarrass you to leak this news?"

Talleyrand took a sip of wine: "No, anyway, even if I don't tell you, you will know it in two days."

Arthur blinked and hinted: "Sorry to trouble you, your news may be of some help to my subsequent discussions with the cabinet on the assassination case."

"That's best."

Talleyrand said: "I just received news yesterday that the Egyptian Pasha Muhammad Ali of the Ottoman Empire was dissatisfied that the Ottoman Sultan did not honor his promise to appoint him the title of governor of Syria and Crete, so he launched the Reconstruction of Arabia The empire's jihad slogan, and sent his son Ibrahim to lead 30,000 Egyptian troops out of the Sinai Peninsula and march directly into Palestine and Syria.

Today, the Egyptian army has successively conquered El-Arish, Gaza, and is currently besieging Jaffa. The chiefs of Lebanon and Syria have welcomed the arrival of the Egyptian army. They seem to be happy to break away from the jurisdiction of the Ottoman Empire with Ali's help. Judging from the current news coming out of the Ottoman court, Ottoman Sultan Mahmud II seems to be dispatching troops and generals while sending people to negotiate with Ali.

If his negotiations with Ali failed, then the two sides would inevitably have to fight in Anatolia. But unfortunately, the most capable army of the Ottoman Empire is the army of Egyptian Pasha Ali. In addition, the Ottoman navy was completely destroyed by your General Codrington, so I am not optimistic about the prospects of the Ottoman decisive battle.

Mahmud II obviously knew this very well, so after receiving the news of Ali's rebellion, he sent a letter of distress to Paris. I believe there is a copy of the same distress letter on Viscount Palmerston's desk. In addition, Metternich and Nicholas I must also have a copy. "

"Really?" Arthur pondered for a while: "Excuse me, if it is true as you said, why is there no news at all in British public opinion?"

Talleyrand raised the corner of his mouth: "So this is the strange thing. The lack of news explains the attitude of Viscount Palmerston to a certain extent. He does not intend to intervene. But this is also normal. Not only does he not intend to Intervention, we do not intend to intervene.

But I can tell you for sure that the Tsar may intervene. I can understand that Viscount Palmerston does not intend to delve into the issue of Poland, but I cannot understand if he intends to stand still on the issue of Osman and Ali. "

When Arthur heard this, he suddenly remembered General Napier who had left the port from Liverpool before.

But in front of Talleyrand, he did not tell the whole truth.

Arthur said: "Perhaps it is because of the issues of cholera and parliamentary reform, and there has just been another assassination in Liverpool. As you know, Britain is in a mess now, and there is really no time to distract from other affairs."

"You can't say that." Talleyrand shook his finger: "France has just experienced the July Revolution not long ago, and we are now also strictly guarding against cholera. Domestic issues and foreign affairs issues cannot be generalized. Moreover, you Haven't you carefully considered that some problems can be caused by humans?"

"Of course I have."

Arthur leaned on the chair: "But firstly, I have no evidence, and secondly, if this issue is man-made, then it is out of my jurisdiction. You also know that Viscount Palmerston has a good relationship with the Russians, and he has a good relationship with the Russians." He is an Irish lover. The Times even called him 'Cupid from Ireland', so his deep friendship with Mrs. Leven is naturally natural. If I go and tell Viscount Melbourne, the Foreign Secretary wants to kill him To me, this scene is too bloody."

When Talleyrand heard this, he tapped his fingertips on the table and said: "If you want evidence, I happen to have some here. But since the source of the evidence is not easy to explain, how to use them depends on your art of speaking. . Of course, if you are worried about offending a minister who has no control over you, you can just pretend that I didn’t say anything.”

Arthur smiled when he heard this and said: "Mr. Talleyrand, you have already mentioned this, how can I leave?"

Talleyrand also showed a sly smile when he heard this. He raised his glass and touched it with Arthur: "Arthur, I know that you, a young man, are different from ordinary young people. Of course, if you succeed, Then think of today’s diplomacy lesson as a free lesson from me.”

"You originally wanted to charge?"

"Of course." Talleyrand straightened his clothes and said arrogantly: "Even if I charge you ten thousand pounds for Talleyrand's personal guidance, is it expensive? Metternich spent a lot of money in order to buy some information from me. The francs are worth millions. Young man, I’m already giving you a very cheap price.”