Rebirth: The Financial Giant

The next day, Tuesday, October 29th.

The three major A-share stock indexes opened with mixed gains and losses this morning. After the opening, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated sideways.

The digital currency concept sector continues to maintain its strength today. Although it is not as strong as yesterday, the sector opened higher this morning and reached +5.06%. After the opening, it fluctuated all the way up. Near the end of the morning session, the digital currency concept sector once expanded to +9%. , individual stocks within the sector are still setting off a daily limit trend.

Many retail investors who were short last week did not have the first mover advantage. Yesterday they held back and opened too high to make a move. In addition, it is possible that the main force will use the good news to ship and take over the order.

But today the market opened more than five points higher. The short-term retail investors couldn't stand it any longer, so they immediately changed their minds and admitted their mistakes to Mr. Market.

Today it opened sharply higher by +5%, and many short-term retail investors said that this is not the main shipment, but a real good news. It is about to start the second wave of market. Yesterday, it reached a new high. That is the cost range of the main force. How can it be possible for the main force? Run away if you don’t make money? It must be pulled higher, at least this week the risk is not big, and we should not consider evacuating until Friday.

So hurry up and buy now. Buy now.

Many retail investors who were shorted hurriedly rushed in during the early trading. After the early trading ended and during the noon break, many investors who rushed in were very satisfied when they saw that they could still gain three or four points by holding the underlying stocks to chase higher prices.

But in fact, big funds had already begun to withdraw when the market rose in early trading. As a representative of one of the big funds, Feng Xiaocheng's small and medium-sized Chuang 300 began to withdraw.

The mission assigned by the big boss has been completed, so of course it’s time to evacuate.

Lu Ming's request to Feng Xiaocheng was to complete the task without losing too much. This time, he was not trying to make money.

But Feng Xiaocheng still made several hundred million, but he had no choice. This market (cai) was too enthusiastic, so Feng Xiaocheng could only earn 300 million in tears and leave, treating it as a day trip.

…

At the opening in the afternoon, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, which originally maintained a sideways trading trend, slowly declined.

By around 14:00, all of Feng Xiaocheng's funds had been withdrawn. At this time, the increase in the digital currency concept sector had narrowed to +6.34%. In the afternoon, other large funds were also flowing out, and only retail investors were screaming for cash.

At 14:30, a classic late half-hour dive was staged at 2:30 in the afternoon, and funds fled at an accelerated pace.

As of the close, the digital currency concept sector, which rose 9 points during the session, finally closed up +2.45%, the blockchain concept sector closed down -0.86%, and the network security concept that followed the trend closed down -2.78%, which was staged in the last half hour. Capital flight.

In terms of the broader market, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed at 2954 points today, down -0.87%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9746 points, down -0.57%, and the GEM Index closed at 1686 points, down -1.05%.

Investors who jumped into blockchain and digital currencies in early trading were confused.

Classic wealth in the market and tears after the market.

Big A makes money, big A spends it, and I want to take it home.

That's it? That's it?

Dog versus main force!

The main force predicts you to predict the main force's prediction.

I'm bored again. I don't know how many times I've been bored by Big A. I'm numb.

Hot chicken, domestic investment really has no pattern.

Ji Ji Wai Wai Wai Wai Wai looks like he just came to Big A not long ago. Where are you standing guard instead of standing guard?

Too bad, hahaha~~

Teacher, I understand, and there is nothing left...[laughing through tears]

Listen to your words and I will work for ten more years.

…

At about 16:00 in the afternoon, Tiansheng Capital Headquarters.

Lu Ming was sitting on the sofa in the rest area of ​​his office. There was a material report beside the tea table. He also had a material report in his hand and was reading it. Han Qiulin was sitting on the side making tea.

Both of these materials are related to Ruixing Coffee. The material on the table was submitted by Qi Wei. Under his control, all the long positions in Ruixing Coffee have been closed, and all long positions in Ruixing Coffee have been liquidated. And it is empty toward death.

The stock price of Ruixing Coffee is still trading sideways above US$80 per share, and has reached a new high in recent days. The current historical high price has reached US$89.732 per share, and the market value has reached a record high of US$22.594 billion. Approximately 158.1 billion yuan.

Because the third quarter financial report is very impressive, Wall Street investors and North American stockholders are crazy about this stock.

The material Lu Ming was reading in his hand was exactly the data that was to be sent to Muddy Waters Company in the form of an anonymous report.

Lu Ming has actually been involved in Ruixing Coffee, and the company's stock price has reached 89 US dollars. The highest price in the previous life was just over 51 US dollars.

Now, Ruixing's thunder will definitely explode in advance.

However, Tiansheng Capital is not suitable for releasing short-selling reports to the outside world. The most suitable one is of course Muddy Waters Company. This is a very famous short-selling institution. The boss is a China connection. He also named the company from the meaning of fishing in troubled waters.

Muddy Waters makes money by short selling, and he has a very good understanding of the operating models of companies in Greater China. He is an expert at investigating corporate fraud. Many companies have already had Muddy Waters' impressive record before.

The document in Lu Ming's hand clearly stated various problems with Ruixing Coffee.

First of all, Ruixing Coffee’s business model is to try to instill a coffee-drinking culture into consumers in Greater China through large discounts or even free offers. This business model is fundamentally bankrupt.

At the beginning of the third quarter, the company used financial fraud to show a series of false prosperity, pushing its stock price up by 330%, and then successfully raised US$1.1 billion in October.

This material emphasized one sentence: Ruixing Coffee’s business model of burning money to subsidize coffee drinking for consumers in Greater China to expand consumer market share is not recognized at all. Ruixing Coffee cut off Wall Street’s $1.1 billion in leeks through financial fraud.

Then there are the specific fake data.

The material report was clearly written in black and white, and the data on the material in Lu Ming's hand couldn't be more authentic, because it was internal information sent by the chairman.

Specifically, the sales volume of each store was inflated. In the third quarter of this year, the inflated increase exceeded 69%, and in October just past, it exceeded 88%. The average daily sales volume of each store was about 263, but it was written in the third quarter report. The average daily sales of each store are 444 items, and it is expected that each store will sell an average of 495 items per day in the fourth quarter.

The actual sales volume does not match the reported sales volume, indicating false reporting.

In addition, Ruixing Coffee also falsely reported 72% of its online APP sales. When shopping online, a meal pickup code will be generated to facilitate number picking. If the numbers are generated in sequence, then the last number will be today's sales. For example, if the order number for the last order is 666, it means that 666 orders were made today.

Lu Ming, who was reading the material, couldn't help but call Old Lu Liuliuliu when he saw this.

The cool stuff doesn't stop there.

Ruixing also inflated the price of each item. Each item inflated the sales price by at least 1.23 yuan. In its financial statements, the sales price of each item was 11.2 yuan, but the final sales price of the item was 9.87 yuan. ~10.07 yuan, not the 11.2 yuan in the report, not including the free drinks.

Consumers of Ruixing Coffee may be more able to appreciate the benefits of really riding a horse!

In addition, it also falsely reported advertising expenditures in the third quarter of this year, falsely reporting at least 150% of advertising expenditures, and used this part of advertising expenditures to fill the hole in the previously falsely reported income.

Among the total advertising expenses of 240 million yuan disclosed in the second quarter, Fanzhong Media accounted for 140 million yuan. In the third quarter, Ruixing Coffee’s expenditure on Fanzhong Media was 46 million yuan, accounting for only 12% of the reported advertising expenses, which was far lower than the previous year. levels of several quarters.

If the spending on non-focus media advertising expenditures remains balanced in the third quarter, it means that Ruixing Coffee has overstated its advertising expenses by 158%, which is a serious misstatement.

Coincidentally, the falsely reported advertising expenditure of 336 million yuan is close to the inflated store operating profit reported by the company. Therefore, there is reason to suspect that the falsely increased revenue of 397 million yuan is the falsely increased advertising expenditure of 336 million yuan.

At the end of this material, analysis and supplementation of the industry are also provided.

First of all, the Greater China market is a country with a big tea culture, and the market growth space for coffee is actually limited. At the same time, the per capita consumption power of coffee is mainly determined by culture, not the level of economic development. The growth rate of coffee bean consumption in Greater China has slowed down significantly, which means that the overall market may be becoming saturated.

Secondly, consumers are extremely price-sensitive. When price subsidies are no longer available, it will be difficult to retain users. Because the company uses free coffee and coupons to attract users, this user group often maintains higher prices. sensitivity.

At the end of this material report, it is concluded that the user retention rate of Ruixing Coffee is positively related to the discount intensity, that is, the higher the discount rate, the higher the user retention rate; more than two-thirds of the users just come to Ruixing Coffee to drink. A free cup of coffee and not consumed again.

After Lu Ming read the material report, he closed it and nodded with satisfaction: That's it, no need to make any corrections, just call Muddy Waters anonymously, and then we'll watch Muddy Waters Company perform in front of the stage.

Tiansheng Capital doesn’t want to be in the limelight anymore, it can just hide in the background and make a fortune quietly.

…