Rebirth of the Wild Age

Fudan MBA class.

This class was about Entrepreneurship is the core competitiveness of listed companies. Lin Zhuoyun held a copy of Chinese New Literature History Draft and sat in the back row with a smile on her face. She was waiting to join Song Weiyang Going to the movies.

Song Weiyang looked at his watch, threw the chalk away, sat on the podium and said: There are two classes left in this semester, and I will not teach you in the next semester. I have already sorted out the lecture notes of Entrepreneurship. It will be published by Fudan University Press, and both Fudan and Tongji have decided to adopt it as the MBA course textbook. That is to say, Entrepreneurship will be taught in the future, but not by me, but by other professors. There are still 10 minutes to finish class, let’s talk about anything, and students who have questions can also ask questions.”

A student raised his hand suddenly: Teacher, a financial magazine said that you made more than 90 million yuan in the stock market last year, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange called you a 'stock god'. Is this true?

Song Weiyang smiled and said, How can there be 90 million? After deducting taxes and fees, it is less than 80 million.

As soon as this remark came out, the classroom suddenly screamed again and again.

Rumors in the rivers and lakes are one thing, but confirmation by the parties is another. The average age of these students is about 30 years old, and they have seen a lot of the world, but it is still unimaginable for them to earn 80 million in stocks.

Another student said: Teacher, you teach us how to trade stocks.

Song Weiyang said: I don't need to teach, and I can't teach. I'm not a teacher of finance.

Then what is your secret to making money in stocks? the students asked.

Song Weiyang said with a smile: As far as last year's market was concerned, anyone can make money in stocks, as long as they don't get too greedy.

Another student asked: Then based on what information did you leave the venue in time?

Song Weiyang said: Information is everywhere. In October last year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued 12 gold medals to cool down the stock market. Anyone can see these news. Those who are not stupid should stop. Those who were caught later were all because of Greedy. I didn’t leave the market at the highest point, the stock I bought went up several bucks later.”

A student said: Nowadays, financial magazines are reporting Soros' war against the Thai baht every day. What does Mr. Song think?

You came to Fudan to study MBA, why are you all so interested in financial securities? Song Weiyang laughed.

Business management is also inseparable from capital operation. A student said.

Song Weiyang put away his smile and asked back: Do you know why the international speculators headed by Soros are eyeing Thailand?

Some students replied: Thailand is a small country, small in size and easy to operate.

Song Weiyang said: Singapore is smaller, why doesn't Soros go to trouble Singapore?

Well... The student couldn't answer.

It is inevitable that Soros will focus on Thailand instead of other Asian countries, not accidental, Song Weiyang explained. People are amazing. During the ten years from the 1970s to the 1980s, Thailand’s annual GDP growth rate was 10%, and it was very rich. But at that time, Thailand’s foreign exchange management system was relatively strict, and there was no chance for international speculators to make money. Why do you ask Ross is now staring at Thailand, tracing the root cause because China will take back Hong Kong City in 1997.

The students looked at each other in blank dismay, and even Lin Zhuoyun was surprised, wondering what the relationship between Soros' attack on the Thai baht and the return of Hong Kong City was.

Song Weiyang continued: After entering the 1990s, as the time for Hong Kong City's return drew nearer, Hong Kong Island's people were scattered and the financial order became more chaotic. The Thai government felt that it had an opportunity and wanted to compete with Hong Kong City. To build Thailand into an Asian financial center. To this end, the Thai government changed its financial management system to allow funds from foreign financial institutions to freely enter and exit Thailand without being supervised by the Bank of Thailand. Do you know what this means?

A student guessed that he used to study economics, and immediately said: I understand that it is indeed not wrong for Thailand to be attacked by Soros. By doing this, the Thai government means that foreign capital can enter and exit Thailand's real estate and securities markets at will. What is even more frightening is that there is a lack of investment in Thailand. With the supervision of the central bank, foreigners can borrow and borrow Thai baht freely, and the foreign exchange futures market of Thai baht has no defense.”

That's right, that's it, Song Weiyang said. In fact, Soros made a tentative attack on the Thai baht two years ago. However, due to the good economic situation in Thailand, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund both Confidence, coupled with the timely intervention of the Bank of Thailand, Soros's tentative attack was ineffective.

The previous student asked, What about this year? Can the Thai government win this financial war like it did two years ago?

Song Weiyang said with a smile: This year is different. In 1996, Thailand completely liberalized the supervision of foreign investment and demolished its last fortress. International hot money poured in wildly, hot money was everywhere, and the stock market and real estate market were completely bubbled. Land prices Housing prices have soared, stock prices have repeatedly hit new highs, and ordinary people have borrowed money to buy cars and houses. Thailand is a scene of singing and dancing. In addition, the appreciation of the US dollar has driven the appreciation of the Thai baht at a fixed exchange rate, resulting in a sharp drop in Thailand's exports. Thai companies have begun to decline. Banks There are a lot of bad debts. This economic bubble of false prosperity, it will burst with a poke.

However, the Thai government has repelled two waves of Soros attacks this year, said the student, and the Central Bank of Thailand has also raised short-term interest rates, which greatly increased the cost of foreign investment speculation, and also bought a large amount of Thai baht from the foreign exchange market. The exchange rate has stabilized. No matter how powerful the Quantum Fund is, it is impossible to defeat a country, right?

Song Weiyang said with a smile: Please note, it's not repelling, it's just a temporary successful defense. This kind of defense has already cost Thailand a heavy price, and its foreign exchange reserves are running low. Although high interest rates have increased the cost of foreign investment speculation, However, it has made the already difficult manufacturing industry in Thailand worse, and the bad debt problems of banks and enterprises have been completely exposed. Especially the latter is the most critical. If Thailand's industry and commerce continue to prosper, international organizations and individuals will continue to hold a wait-and-see attitude, even optimistic Thailand. But if the bad debt problems of Thai companies and banks are exposed, it will be miserable, and the smell of blood will attract more sharks to help Soros bite Thailand to death.”

So Soros will win this time? the student asked.

Of course. Song Weiyang nodded.

Since Mr. Song sees it so clearly, don't you plan to go to Thailand to vote for it? the student asked.

Song Weiyang said with a smile: Since March, I have made a lot of short-term short orders of Thai baht. Looking at the decisive battle between Soros and the Thai government, I believe Soros will win because he is not fighting alone.

Mr. Song, can you take us to short the Thai baht? several students said.

It's too late, Song Weiyang said. Just half a month ago, due to the situation, the Thai government strictly prohibited banks from lending Thai baht to international speculators. The Thai government even coerced and lured banks to provide customer information on forward short-term Thai baht orders, including me. The Golden Bull Capital has been blacklisted by the Thai government. Now the overnight lending rate in Thailand is horribly high, and your little money probably won’t be able to sustain the plummet of the Thai baht.”

In fact, Soros and others are also very embarrassed now. After all, they are fighting a government of a country, and the other party has too many tricks outside the market.

In order to suppress the Thai baht, Soros even raised funds by selling the US treasury bonds in his hand. Without money, he couldn't afford it. And Thailand also persuaded Singapore, Hong Kong City, and Malaysia to enter the market to fight back. The current situation is that international capital is fighting against the coalition forces of Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Hong Kong.

It depends on who can't hold it first.

Okay, it's been three minutes since get out of class is over. Goodbye, students. Song Weiyang packed up his things and left, and walked out of the classroom with Lin Zhuoyun.