Rebirth of the Official Business Route

More popular economists in Asia than Paul Krugman - Nesbitt? Ye Jianbin said.

You mean Asian Megatrends written by Naisbitt? Zhang Ke asked Ye Jianbin, Is there a domestic publishing house that translates his monograph? I only have an English version in my hand. His views are indeed very popular in Asia. , there should be a translated text in China.”

Well, Foreign Languages ​​Publishing House published the Chinese version in July, and my third uncle recommended me to read it, Ye Jianbin said with a smile, After all, everyone is willing to listen to good words. The chapters of the novel are updated the fastest

It turned out to be recommended by the third uncle's family. It seems that John Naisbitt's point of view is really popular. Zhang smiled and said, Naisbitt optimistically estimates that the rising Asia will become the center of the future world, and Asia will become the center of the world in the future. Continue to prosper, I also like to hear this, but Naisbitt ignores some disadvantages in the economic development model of Asia, especially East Asian countries. These disadvantages are still very serious, but we should pay attention...

The third uncle of Ye Jianbin and the third son of Ye Zufan, Ye Zhenmin, is a member of the party group of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation. He is in charge of the Asia Department. In recent years, due to the economic activity of Asian countries, the overseas Chinese in East Asian countries have accounted for the largest proportion of foreign investment in the country, and the United States has intentionally or unintentionally suppressed the domestic economy. The position of the company is particularly important. Fiction novel chapters are updated the fastest

Hearing what Zhang Ke said, Ye Jianbin became excited and held up his wine glass. He leaned over: You advocate that Charles Schwab temporarily slow down its business expansion in Southeast Asia. Did you already have such a judgment?

Zhang Ke and Jiaxin Industrial were the first to put the brand agency rights of Aida DVD player in Southeast Asia and part of the cash into Jiaxin Industrial in order to replace the second shareholder of Renxin Industrial. Although the agent of Aida DVD player in Southeast Asia However, Zhang Ke persuaded Sun Shangyi, Ge Mingde and others to temporarily slow down their extensive expansion of the DVD player business in the southeast region. They just used the current resources to organize production and sales. The most important move was to join hands with the Ye family to invest in Hui Shanxiangxuehai is trying its best to develop Xiangxuehai's domestic refrigerator business, and Ye Xiaotong also asked Zhang Ke to instigate him to enter Xiangxuehai to be in charge of market operations.

Oh, that's right. Zhang smiled, We may miss some opportunities, but the most important rule of business is to survive. The situation of Jiaxin Industrial was not very good at that time, and we needed a more secure business strategy. The market is yet to be opened. Of course, the domestic business should be developed first.”

Now among the four major shareholders of Jiaxin Industrial. Yuexiu ranked first, and Shengxin Group ranked fourth. The shares held by Sun Shangyi and Ge Mingde, who are the second and third largest shareholders, belong to the Ge family in name, and the Ge family is the largest shareholder of Jiaxin Industrial in name.

Since the establishment of Xiangxuehai Electric Group Co., Ltd. by formally controlling Xiangxuehai in early June. The growth rate of Xiangxue Haiti refrigerator business quickly rebounded to the highest level in 1994 and 1995.

Due to Xiangxuehai's relationship with South Korea's Samsung Group for more than a year, it is suspected that the business has been neglected. To regain the white goods market position of Southern Xiangxuehai and Beihaier, it will be possible after the new production line of Xiangxuehai Electric Appliance Group is put into operation. Xiangxue's refrigerator business in Haiti began to recover and grow in the third quarter, and the nominal net profit of the holding company Jiaxin Industrial in the third quarter has reached 10 million. After deducting financial costs, Charles Schwab finally had a good-looking quarterly report in the third quarter, which supported the value judgment of early investors on Charles Schwab, and the stock price of Charles Schwab has been on the rise; these undoubtedly prove the correctness of Zhang Ke’s judgment, of course , It was also predictable in advance, otherwise Zhang Ke would not be able to persuade Sun Shangyi and Ge Mingde to adopt his suggestion.

The economic environment in East Asia is much more complicated... Zhang Lu continued, The recent influx of international hot money into these regions will catalyze and further aggravate the existing disadvantages; in addition, the recent years of international speculative capital Liquidity is becoming more and more relaxed. The Economic Research Institute has just released a data showing that the scale of hot money with sufficient liquidity has reached one trillion US dollars. No matter how reliable the data from the Economic Research Institute is, the scale of international hot money cannot be small. With such a sharp weapon, do you dare to say that there is no ferocious hunter behind it?

Zhang Ke only had time to study Paul Krugman's economic theory and the macroeconomics of East Asia this year. His previous judgment naturally took advantage of the rebirth, and he took the historical events that happened and Paul Krugman's Zhang Ke's economic theories are mutually confirmed, and then fully collect the economic data of Asian countries for analysis. Zhang Ke naturally has more confidence in pointing out the serious drawbacks in the economies of Asian countries, but his knowledge is really limited. In addition to Ye Jianbin, there are also Sun Shangyi, Ge Mingde, etc. It is doubtful how many other people would agree with him.

Of course, some issues can be communicated with Xu Xueping, Ye Zhenmin and others, but Zhang Ke has only recently studied some issues thoroughly. Before that, he could not just point out that there will be an extremely serious economic crisis in Asia next year.

Hey, what are you two big men doing together?

Zhang He took a look, and Sun Jingmeng was standing behind him with her hands on her hips, close to him, the tip of her nose almost brushing against her tall breasts. Zhang was not the kind of person who didn't take advantage of things, but he didn't dare to take advantage of Sun Jing's advantage. He leaned towards the bar, sniffed the faint fragrance from Sun Jingmeng, and turned to look at Tang and the others. The other staff members of the bar had already arrived six times. Three girls, Tang, Chen Feirong, and Su Yiting, couldn't get their hands in it, and they were sitting inside drinking drinks and chatting.

Zhang Ke and Ye Jianbin discussed the Asian economy speculatively, and their heads almost touched each other. Zhang Ting took out a fountain pen and took a napkin to write out some key economic data and draw a picture for Ye Jianbin to see.

How old are you, and you still like to scribble on napkins? Sun Jingmeng stretched out her hand, filled the densely packed data with a red pen

He took a stack of napkins from Xingtu, stared at it for a while, but didn't see anything?

You don't understand, Ye Jianbin took the napkin from Sun Jingmeng's hand, You won't be interested in these things either. Spreading the napkin on the bar, tapping the bar with his fingers, and resting his chin in one hand, Zhang Ke also turned around and sat upright, ignoring Sun Jingmeng.

How do you know that I'm not interested in these things anymore? Sun Jingmeng puffed her cheeks and tied her hands. During this time, she was also taking care of the bar very seriously. The contempt of Ye Jianbin and Zhang Ke made her feel uncomfortable.

Then come and see, Ye Jianbin moved to the side. Let Sun Jingmeng sit between him and Zhang Ke, Looking at this thing makes me dizzy and affects my appetite... Ah, the takeaway we ordered should be delivered? He raised his hand and looked at his watch, then looked back Look at the entrance of the bar.

Zhang Ke glanced at Sun Jingmeng wearing a smoky gray short-sleeved cashmere sweater. In addition to her white and tender arms, she also showed a large piece of smooth back muscle. She lay on the bar counter and read the data and some economic terms written on the napkin. The leather skirt wrapped around the small buttocks was lowered a little, revealing the lace edge of the red underwear inside. The exposed psoas muscles are delicate and white, Zhang Ke dare not look more. Lie down on the bar, but could not help but see a corner of Sun Jingmeng's breasts showing white and tender breasts. I had to sit up straight and look over Sun Jingmeng's head to talk to Ye Jianbin.

Just watch it if you want, I don't mind, and I won't talk to your little girlfriend. Sun Jing gave Zhang Ke a look. Saying so, he still pulled his shirt to cover the white meat exposed between his back and buttocks.

Sun Jingmeng's eyes were still quite seductive, Zhang Ke scratched his nose, not daring to provoke the witch, and walked to the other side of Ye Jianbin and sat down.

Ye Jianbin smiled. Zhang Ke and Xu Si were guests at Sun's house last year, and they spent a lot of time in contact with Sun Jingmeng. Sun Jingmeng would be somewhat suspicious. There are some things that the person involved knows well. No wonder Zhang Ke didn't even have a retort at this time, probably wishing that Sun Jingmeng would ignore his existence. Ye Jianbin also turned sideways to ignore Sun Jingmeng, and said to Zhang Ke: When will you go to Beijing, or should I ask my third uncle to come and have a chat with you?

Chatting, of course, is talking about the macroeconomic situation in the Asian region.

Regarding the economic situation in Asia, especially East Asia, the mainstream views have always been quite optimistic. Paul Krugman's views are non-mainstream and are not valued by mainstream groups. Zhang's remarks are based on Paul Krugman's It is naturally more convincing to provide more detailed arguments based on Luqman's economic theory.

In the words of the old man, In the past 20 years of reform and opening up, there has never been a person who understands an industry better than this young man. Zhang Ke's opinion, not to mention Ye Jianbin, the rest of the Ye family attaches great importance to it. Shengxin's transformation to focus on the home appliance chain is also a decision after carefully inspecting the market after listening to Zhang Ke's opinion. It has only been a little over a year. It seems that this move is the most successful one for the Ye family in recent years. Taking advantage of the influence of Ye Zhenmin and other Ye family connections in Shanghai and Zhejiang, Shengxin Global Electric has completed the home appliance chain business in Shanghai and Zhejiang, and the assets of this area alone have rapidly expanded to as much as 500 million; The mobile phone agency business continued to provide considerable funds for Shengxin's development, but it was no longer the most important business of the Ye family. It is also because of the rapid development of Shengxin Global Electric Group that seized the opportunity very carefully, Ye Jianbin's status in the Ye family has risen rapidly, and he has become the representative of the Ye family in the business world. Under the name of Xin, Shengxin has begun to take shape as a large group from a trading company two years ago.

Although Zhang Ke clearly pointed out that the impact of the Asian financial turmoil on the country is that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages, mainly because the financial industry policies implemented by the State Council in the past few years have largely resolved some of the disadvantages of the domestic economy. , the country ushered in a golden decade of economic development, but a more accurate judgment on the Asian economic situation will undoubtedly benefit the domestic economy more...

Ye Zhenmin is in charge of the Asian Department in the foreign economic and trade department, and directly handles economic and trade affairs with Asian countries. He is one of the important figures in formulating economic and trade policies for Asian countries. Although it is not a big deal to follow the trend and miscalculate the economic situation in Asia, if you can accurately predict the economic situation in Asia and benefit China from economic and trade activities with East Asian countries, it will definitely be a stroke of luck in your political career.

Ye Jianbin therefore hoped that Zhang Ke would chat with his third uncle Ye Zhenmin.

Can't you just tell me? Zhang Ke said, I have nothing to do these two days. If you are free, I will brag with you more.

I'm going to relay it. I may not be able to explain the problem thoroughly. Let the third uncle come back. Ye Jianbin is more able to accept Zhang Ke's judgment. As for whether his third uncle Ye Zhenmin can accept it, it is unknown, and let them chat face to face. Only by talking can we explain the problem thoroughly, and then I remembered something, Liu Zhijun invited you to meet, will you talk about this?

If they are willing to listen. Of course I will say it, Zhang Ke said, After all, there are several major projects in the province, and Tao Jin needs to nod in person.

The project between Donghai United Steel and Dong Nippon Steel? Ye Jianbin asked.

In order to make Xiaogang County, southeast of the city, an important steel production base in the east, the province launched the Donghai United Iron and Steel Project last year. The equipment and technology required for the project. They are all planned to be imported from Japan. In the end, the East Nippon Steel Group under the Mitsui Consortium was selected for cooperation negotiations.

At the beginning of April, I was angry at Little Japan's arrogance and rudeness. Zhang Ke, Ye Jianbin, Li Yijiang and others single-handedly fabricated the incident of buying sex in Fuchun Pavilion, which made the behavior of Japanese negotiators buying sex in Fuchun Pavilion Hotel and insulting China exposed to the public.

the event. An anti-Japanese and anti-Korean trend of thought in the province also caused the project negotiations to be suspended for a while. The province also expressed a tough attitude that it does not matter to suspend the negotiations. Dong Nippon Steel knew that it was wrong, and recalled all the negotiating team members involved in the Fuchun Pavilion buying sex incident. Send another person to restart the negotiation.

Zhang Ke nodded,

Yes, but not only that.

Oh?

I personally agree with Paul Krugman's understanding of the Asian economic situation, Zhang said lightly, Although at this time Naisbitt's view that Asia will continue to prosper is more popular. The prevalence of Naisbitt's view can be It is said that it is one of the catalysts for a large amount of hot money to flow into East Asian countries in recent years. The large amount of speculative hot money and the economic shortcomings of East Asian countries have a great possibility of inducing economic crises in these regions. You said that those international financial investment giants have Didn't you smell the smell of blood?

Well! From the detailed data collected by Zhang Ke, Ye Jianbin also tends to think that there is a great possibility of a local economic crisis in East Asia.

If the Asian economy is going to be turbulent, it will first start from Southeast Asia, especially in countries such as Thailand and Indonesia, where the economic disadvantages are particularly serious, and the ability to prevent crises is poor; in the past two decades, Southeast Asia has been Japan's largest capital export destination. , Southeast Asia's economy is unstable, and Japan will be affected, and it will first be reflected in the exchange rate. The exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar has fallen, and the renminbi is relatively strong. Gain on the exchange rate.

At this moment, the takeaway was delivered to the store, and they had to finish dinner quickly to start the night business. Zhang and Ye Jianbin temporarily stopped discussing these issues, and called Tang and the others to come and prepare together. Sun Jing held the napkin on which Zhang Ke had just written a string of economic data, looked at it for a long time, but couldn't see why, and threw the napkin to Ye Jianbin angrily, and saw Ye Jianbin put away these napkins like a treasure, black and white The distinct eyeballs rolled a few times, his momentum was taken away, but he couldn't say anything sharp. She didn't understand that Zhang was still in high school, how could he know this?

After dinner and tidying up, the bar officially started its business for the day. Tang, Chen Feirong, and Su Yiting entered and exited a place like the bar for the first time, and they were very excited to see the crowds pouring in; They left a corner to continue their unfinished conversation before dinner.

Speaking of the Donghai United Iron and Steel Project, this is the largest investment project in the history of Donghai Province, involving an amount of up to 10 billion, of which nearly 70% to 80% of the funds will be used for equipment and technology from East Japan Railway, The source of funding is an important negotiation item.

If you can obtain yen loans from Japan to introduce equipment and technology, and postpone the loan repayment period to after 1998, after the Asian financial turmoil in 1998, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar fell sharply, while the exchange rate of the renminbi was strong, only this part You can actually pay less than 30% of the loan.

Japan was one of the first countries to provide government loans to China. Beginning in 1979, the Japanese government successively provided aid loans totaling about 2.9 trillion yen to China, 60% of which were received from foreign official aid loans. There are profound historical and political reasons for the Japanese government to provide aid loans to China, but the main economic reason is that Japanese companies have obtained a large number of contracts in loans to China, thereby aggressively entering the Chinese market and driving the development of the Japanese economy. .

The cooperation between Donghai United Iron and Steel Group and East Nippon Steel can completely obtain low-interest loans from Japan through official negotiations.

In addition, although the country withstood the Asian financial turmoil, its economy was still affected to a certain extent in 1998 and 1999. The State Council proposed appropriate measures according to the situation at that time to relieve the pressure of economic slowdown, but The development of industries such as real estate and education to stimulate domestic demand has also left many problems for people's livelihood in the future.

Zhang Ke had had some exchanges with Xu Xueping on these issues before. If Tao Jin can also accept Paul Krugman’s judgment on the Asian economic situation, Donghai Province can definitely make some preparations before the Asian financial crisis erupts, and increase the basic Investment in facilities construction - 40% of the Japanese government's aid loans to China should be used for infrastructure construction - strengthen negotiations with the Japanese government to increase the amount of Japan's aid loans to China this year and next as much as possible, It is used for the construction of infrastructure such as provincial highway network, railway network, and co-dykes.

All of these naturally emerged after the Asian financial turmoil.

However, the Japanese government's aid loans to China involve relatively significant political significance. In the 1980s, they were usually an important bargaining chip used by Japanese ministers to improve Sino-Japanese relations when they visited China. Since the 1990s, in order to meet the needs of Japanese companies entering the Chinese market on a large scale, the conditions for relevant loans have gradually been relaxed. However, without the support of Tao Jin, secretary of the provincial party committee, and even the central government, a series of plans, especially for the increase in yen loans, have It is also difficult for Xu Xueping to promote the investment in infrastructure in the province to succeed.

Even if you cannot obtain low-interest aid loans, if you obtain commercial loans from Japan, as long as the project is negotiated before the Japanese economy is affected in 1998, you can directly benefit from the Asian financial turmoil.

Of course, Zhang Ke is not without his own interests to weigh.

Xiangxuehai will introduce new production lines and technologies this year and next, and Shin Kong Paper will also massively expand its paper production capacity this year and next. Zhang Ke tends to cooperate with Japanese and Korean companies. Japanese and Korean companies are trustworthy in terms of technology and machinery manufacturing in these two aspects, but only relying on the private influence of Xiangxuehai and Xinguang Paper, it is possible to obtain commercial loans from Japan. Zhang Ke wanted the projects of Xiangxuehai and Xinguang Paper to get a free ride from the province and become a sub-project in the package of projects in the province. Nearly half of the shares in Xiangxuehai are state-owned. Xinguang Paper has a large-scale plantation in the upper reaches of Xiezhong and plans to build a large-scale pulping production base. Of course, there are reasons to enjoy some convenience. These are just a part of Zhang Ke's complete plan.