Rebirth of the investment era

"It opened so much higher, which is a bit unexpected!"

At 9:15 a.m., inside Yuhang and Yuhang Investment Company, in the main fund trading room, Li Meng watched the market prices of the two cities start to beat again, and said with a little surprise: "The entire market is generally about 1 point higher. Among them, the industry sectors and concept sectors related to several core main concepts, led by 'infrastructure', 'state-owned enterprise reform', and 'Internet finance', mostly increased by about 2 points, which is indeed... much higher than expected!"

Su Yu smiled softly, with no obvious expression on his face, and continued: "This high opening situation will only exceed expectations if it can be maintained."

"You mean...this situation cannot be maintained until the collective bidding ends?" Li Meng asked.

Su Yu responded: "It's difficult. The external trend is good and exciting. Usually the first time the market opens is the high point of market sentiment. As the trading time goes by, this investment sentiment will only continue to decline. In addition, In the current market, no matter whether hot money groups, major institutions, or the majority of retail investors are chasing market hot spots, they are not very willing to take over high positions. In this way... the market wants to maintain this high level under the stimulation of positive external trends. Basically, it’s not very realistic to open an increase.”

With Su Yu's voice, the market trading time has passed 9:16.

I can see that the two cities' pattern of opening higher across the board has already declined significantly. The growth rates of industry sectors and concept sectors related to the core main lines of 'infrastructure', 'state-owned enterprise reform' and 'Internet finance' have shrunk to about 1%. Others The index growth rates of various market main lines, industry sectors, and concept sectors have all fallen back to within 1%. Among them, the growth rates of several major industry sectors in the 'big finance' field have fallen back to near flat territory.

As for popular stocks such as Beixin Road and Bridge, Beijiang Communications Construction, Shanghai Sanmao, Kumho Group, etc.

At this moment, large-scale selling orders appeared on the market, suppressing the stock price to continue downward, causing these stocks to fall sharply after opening high.

"It's really like that!" Li Meng saw that the market's reaction was indeed the same as Su Yu's prediction. He chuckled and said, "Look at this situation, before 9:20, I'm afraid the overall market increase will drop back to 5 It’s within %, and sure enough… I still overestimated the reaction of market sentiment.”

"This is the power of trends!" Su Yu said with a smile, "In an upward trend, the good news will be amplified by emotions, while in the downward trend, the good news will be deliberately ignored. If the market's emotional pendulum is less than an extreme, it is not possible. It will come back easily."

"That's true!" Li Meng nodded slightly, "Judging from the market trend, it is obvious that the market has not fallen completely. The chip structure in the market is still quite chaotic. It seems... the market adjustment will continue to improve. In a period of time, the 2,200-point mark will most likely be touched.”

"So, there's no need to worry." Su Yu said with a smile, "We have plenty of time to arrange our positions."

After saying that, Su Yu turned his attention to the trading interface of the two cities again.

I saw that the trading time displayed on the big screen in the trading room had moved to 9:19. The high opening situation of the two cities continued to fall. The core areas of 'infrastructure', 'state-owned enterprise reform', and 'internet finance' The index gains of main-line related industry sectors and concept sectors have all fallen back to within 8%. Among them, the selling pressure on a number of popular concept stocks is increasing rapidly as time goes by.

Then, when the trading time entered, it was 9:20.

After a large number of false orders were placed and a large number of orders were canceled between 9:19 and 9:20, the market situation was completely different from the initial stage of the two-city call auction at 9:15. The industry sectors and concept sectors related to the popular main line generally opened higher by no more than 5%. The remaining industry sectors and concept sectors related to the non-popular main line opened slightly higher, or even opened flat, even like the military industry, which performed relatively weakly yesterday. 'Field industry sector index, the call auction continued to be weak today, and opened a little lower.

9:21, 9:22, 9:23...

As the call auction trading time progresses, the overall market trend is still in a continuous decline.

Finally, when 9:25 arrived, the collective bidding in the two cities ended.

After 10 minutes of collective bidding, the Shanghai Stock Index finally settled at 36 points, only 38% higher, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and ChiNext Index opened 29% and 31% higher respectively.

The opening performance of several major indexes...

Compared with the expectations of the majority of investors before the market opening, and the strong state shown by the market in the early stage of collective bidding in the two cities, it can be said that it is a far cry from it.

"Hey, the benefits of the 'Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect' and the overall surge in the external market can't drive A-shares. It's really hopeless!"

During the short trading suspension period from 9:25 to 9:30, the discussion area of ​​the stock trading platform gathered a large number of retail investors. Retail investors who had expected their expectations to be disappointed were helpless.

"Compared to US stocks, Big A is simply a younger brother."

"The U.S. stock market is fluctuating and hovering at new highs, but Big A has been searching for the bottom. There is indeed a huge gap."

"The mood was so good before the market opened. Last night, U.S. stocks rose by more than 2 points across the board. However, today's call auction only opened a little higher."

"It would be nice to be able to open it high, but you can't expect too much!"

"This is not a question of whether to be extravagant or not, but a question of the trend of the entire call auction. There is indeed a problem!"

"From the start of the call auction at 9:15 to the end of the call auction at 9:25, the overall trend of the market is continuously downward. Such a trend... It is estimated that the market will definitely continue to fall in the future. At this position, there is a high probability Not a staged bottom.”

"The collective bidding trend has been going down, and it is estimated that today's intraday trend will definitely not be optimistic."

"With this kind of collective bidding trend, it is estimated that there will be a plunge when the market opens."

"Overall, the market's investment confidence is still too weak. As soon as the market rises slightly, selling pressure from above will emerge one after another."

"It's not to blame for everyone's low investment confidence. The market has no sustained money-making effect at all. How can this allow everyone to take over the market with peace of mind and invest money to continue to follow the trend?"

“Buying stocks is like buying a house, you buy ups and not downs.”

"Yes, the weaker the stock, the more it will be abandoned by the main funds. On the contrary, the stocks with a good upward trend, even if the valuation is slightly higher, can still attract the continuous attention of the main funds active in the market. This should be the so-called 'The strong get stronger and the weak get weaker', right?"

"Not to mention that the call auction is lower than pre-market expectations, the key is that the volume is still declining."

"This shows that the overall liquidity of the market is still decreasing, and the wait-and-see sentiment on the sidelines is getting stronger and stronger. I feel that the funds released from the reduction of positions are not willing to enter the market at this stage."

"If there is no continuous profit-making effect, why enter the market? Isn't it good to watch the show with a short position?"

"It makes sense. At this time, it is suitable to watch the show with a short position."

"What the hell, I also want to watch the show with a short position, but the trap is dead. The cutting of the flesh is too painful, so I can only carry it. Hey... I still hope that the market can turn around a little bit."

"Looking at the continued decline in volume and the declining intensity of hot money attacks, will the market return to the same downward trend as before?"

"It's really hard to say. At present... there are signs of this!"

"I hope we don't enter the downturn mode, otherwise we will really have to liquidate our positions and close our accounts. The market has been down for several years, which is really hard to endure."

"Let's wait and see. I always feel that the market is not far from an inflection point."

"Of course it's not far away. Even if it falls to 2,000 points, there is only 10 points of room for the index to fall. But the key is not the index, but the individual stocks. Usually in the negative decline mode, the index does not fall much, but the individual stocks are miserable. If the index falls by 10%, there’s no telling if individual stocks can fall by 50%.”

"Generally speaking, no matter how the market goes next, it is not suitable for trading on the left."

"Yes, it is safest to wait patiently for the opportunity on the right."

"Hey, on the right side, in a volatile market, the so-called opportunities on the right side are mostly hills to take over. Just like this wave of market trends in April and May, those investment groups who previously took over orders near 2400 and 2500 points , isn’t it the so-called way of attacking with opportunities on the right? Let’s see how these people are doing now? Almost all of them are trapped on the top of the mountain. Let me say... At this time, no matter whether there are opportunities on the left or on the right, there is no chance. It’s appropriate to wait and see with a short position.”

"However, although the call auction trends in the two cities were significantly lower than everyone's expectations before the market opened, it seems that in the market, the industry sectors and concept sectors related to the core main lines of 'infrastructure', 'state-owned enterprise reform', and 'Internet finance' are slightly stronger. , and its popular component stocks and concept stocks, there are indeed signs of bottoming out, and they are not falling much."

"The so-called leading sector means that it adjusts before the market and bottoms out before the market. It is obvious that the two most popular main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' have this sign."

"The key is to look at the overall trend of a large number of popular stocks like 'Beixin Road and Bridge, Beijiang Communications Construction, Kumho Group, Shanghai Construction Engineering, China Fortune Land Development, China MCC...'. Has it reached the end? And then we can judge the trend. It’s important that the relevant mainline market conditions have bottomed out!”

"Today's Beixin Road and Bridge collective bidding trend doesn't seem to be too bad."

"It has dropped to the limit several times in a row, and the stock price has almost halved from its high point. How much worse can it be?"

"It's really not that bad, but it doesn't show a very strong state. I can't say whether the stock price has fallen completely. I think...it's safest to continue to wait and see."

Amid the heated discussions among retail investors about long and short positions...

The short five-minute suspension period from 9:25 to 9:30 passed in a blink of an eye, and the two cities ushered in formal continuous bidding transactions.

I saw only 5 minutes of short-lived emotions brewing.

Once the stagnant market in the two cities jumped, a number of popular stocks with relatively abundant liquidity in the market that attracted high attention encountered relatively concentrated and violent selling.

Immediately afterwards, at 9:32, the Shanghai Stock Index suddenly fell to 2253 points, recovering all the gains from the higher opening.

At 9:33, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index turned green, and the market showed an obvious diving trend at the opening. The core popular stock, Beixin Road and Bridge, once again expanded its decline, falling by 3 points in 3 minutes.

At 9:35, the three major indexes, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index, all turned green.

At 9:37, a number of concept sectors and industry sectors related to the two core market lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' also began to show an obvious and rapid decline trend. Among them, the real estate sector index rose 49% from a high. position, sliding to a 35% drop position underwater.

At 9:40, the Shanghai Stock Index's decline expanded to 33%, hitting the 2,250 point mark again.

At 9:45, while the overall market prices in the two cities continued to decline, the oversold 'growth stocks' in the direction of the small and medium-sized board and GEM began to rise rapidly and showed some performance.

At 9:53, the concept of ‘venture capital’ in the market changed.

At 9:58, the ‘military industry’ industry sector, which had already topped the decline list in the two cities, also began to show a more obvious straight-line upward movement.

At 10:05, the ‘coal’ and ‘non-ferrous metals’ sectors, which have been falling continuously for almost a year and a half, saw unusual changes.

At 10:12, the "coal is flying and the color is dancing" market showed signs, and the two core main lines of "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform" that were once expressed began to ebb again.

At 10:20, thanks to the frequent changes in many mainline market conditions, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index began to rebound rapidly after hitting the lowest level of 79 points, regaining the 2250-point mark. At this time, the overall market performance has already It is completely different from the time when the two markets held collective bidding at 9:25.

At 10:32, the Shanghai Stock Index turned red again after experiencing underwater shocks.

At 10:41, the market has temporarily established a market push centered on 'Mean Feise Wu', and the main funds that are still active in the market have begun to continue to converge in these two areas. At the same time, some stocks in the market were seriously oversold before. , stocks that are relatively unpopular and have a relatively clean chip structure on the market have begun to frequently receive the attention of active main funds on the market. The main line of the market, "oversold rebound", has increasingly begun to be interpreted in the depths of the market.

At 10:55, the Shanghai Stock Index returned to 2260 points.

At 11:02, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the gains that opened higher at the beginning of the session and set a new intraday rebound high. At this moment, the market's hot spots also spread from 'Mean Feisewu' to all 'oversold' industry sectors and concept sectors. , even the 'military industry' sector, which has been subject to continued large-scale selling by major funds, at this moment, climbed out of the water in the main line of 'oversold rebound' and began to rise.

"I thought that the market trend this morning would be a repeat of yesterday afternoon's market performance, but I didn't expect...the Shanghai Stock Index actually recovered from underwater after diving." Seeing that the market trend is not as bad as I imagined, the magic city at this moment , inside Zexi Investment Company, in the main fund trading room, fund manager Zhou Kan was slightly surprised and said, "It seems that the market is still somewhat resilient at this position. It is estimated that even if the trend is repeated, there should not be the same frequent 2 , 3 points of continuous plummeting trend, right?”

Next to Zhou Kan, Xu Xiang, who was also staring at the market trends of the two markets, was silent for a moment and responded: "With this trend this morning, the market has indeed shown a certain degree of resilience, the market's long and short sentiment, and the majority of investors' long and short expectations for the market outlook. Attitudes have also begun to show certain differences, and there is no such strong consistency in expected performance.”

"but……"

Xu Xiang pondered for a while and then said: "The hot spots on the market are still very scattered. Judging from the market performance in the past few days, there is no hot spot on the market that has had a sustained profit-making effect. Therefore, in the market hot spots, there are still Until it shows any sustainability, the index will definitely continue to fluctuate."

"But overall, this should be a sign that the index has entered the second stage."

"That is to say, the main decline stage of the market has passed, and what follows is probably a small shock adjustment cycle that trades time for space. It is also the so-called left-side position building opportunity stage."

"Then we..." Zhou Kan paused and asked again, "Do we need to adjust our trading strategy appropriately?"

Xu Xiang thought for a while, but still suppressed the impulse in his heart, and said: "Although the opportunities for building positions on the left side of the market are gradually becoming more and more prominent, in the market shock cycle where time changes space, we are currently not sure what the follow-up opportunities may be. Which one, or which ones, will be the main line of sustained money-making effect?”

"This also means that we are currently unable to determine the main line of subsequent investment and cannot arrange positions."

"My opinion is... take another look."

"It's not too late to have a good meal. After the market adjusts, re-establishing a bottom will never be achieved overnight. We should have time and don't have to be in such a hurry."

“It is better to make a move after seeing it clearly than to build a position indiscriminately and miss more opportunities.”

"Okay!" Zhou Kan responded, "Then wait a little longer!"

"But..." Zhou Kan paused for a while, staring at the changes in the two markets, pondering for a while, and then asked again, "Mr. Xu feels that the next one in the market has a sustained money-making effect, can lead market speculation, and regroup the market. In which direction will investment confidence, the core hype thread that leads to market breakthroughs, appear?"

Xu Xiang carefully looked at the market changes for a while and replied: "For the time being, it should be..."

He hadn't spoken the word 'unknown' yet.

Suddenly, the unusual trends of many core stocks in the 'military industry' industry sector instantly caught his attention, causing him to swallow those two words back abruptly, and a trace of excitement gradually appeared in his eyes. The sharp light seemed to suddenly see the hunter who was delighted with his prey.

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