Rebirth of the investment era

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I can see that after the impact of yesterday's trading suspension of Huaguo Petrochemical, the external trend is still good.

Most stocks in the two cities opened higher. Among them, the two main concept stocks of "mobile Internet and smart phone industry" in the direction of GEM and small and medium-sized board rebounded strongly, leading the gains in the two cities. However, in the conceptual field of "central enterprise capital reform", in addition to Except for a few small-cap stocks controlled by local state-owned assets, there were no obvious changes in the large-cap stocks.

“It seems that Huaguo Petrochemical’s mixed-ownership reform and suspension of trading will have a huge impact on the market!”

Seeing that the initial bidding situation in the two cities was obviously weaker than expected, Li Meng lamented: "I feel that the market's sensitivity to news and reaction to the news have begun to slow down and decrease."

Su Yu nodded slightly and said: "The market has become immune to news, which is almost a characteristic of the bottom)"

"The attack direction of active funds is still on the two main lines of "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain" led by the small and medium-sized board and the GEM." Li Meng said, "It seems that the time for the market style to change is still not available at the moment. Mature, we...I'm afraid we still have to wait!"

"It's okay!" Su said, "We'll take a look when the market opens."

"Mr. Su, based on the expected logic and the market's decline during this period, the reaction of each sector, the main concepts of "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain" in the direction of small and medium-sized boards and industry boards are still the strongest. ! While the two were talking, Liu Yuan, the leader of the gold trading team of "Yuhang No. 2" said, "In the entire decline, only these two main lines are resistive decline trends, and according to various industry research reports collected and surveyed by the company's research office , the industries related to these two main lines are still the areas with the strongest explosion in scale and performance. Why does Mr. Su feel that... the market will definitely undergo a change in main line style in the next stage? "

Su Yu saw the confusion in Liu Yuan's eyes and said with a smile: "That's a good question! Then what do you think are the basic conditions for opportunities to invest in the stock market? What is the basic logic of the rise and fall of stock prices? If you want to obtain excess Revenue, where do the big opportunities come from?”

"The fundamental logic of the rise and fall of stock prices is naturally the difference in the expected period." Liu Yuan said, "Investors' fundamental understanding of the company's future development is the difference in the expected period, which leads to continuous trading and fluctuations in stock prices. As for the basis for the existence of opportunities, The condition...should be the expected changes in the future caused by changes in market information and actual events, thus creating opportunities for expected differences."

"The biggest source of opportunity to obtain excess returns..."

Liu Yuan thought about it for a while, but she didn't understand the problem deeply. She couldn't help but pause. After a while, she said, "Please give me some advice, Mr. Su."

Su Yu smiled and said, "Repay the market's expected differences!"

"Sufficient differences in market expectations can generate excess market investment opportunities."

"You just said that the two core lines of "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain" are still the ones with the clearest investment logic and the strongest future expectations in the market. You are right."

"But in these two major areas, after the hype throughout last year, as well as the comprehensive performance explosion and corresponding stock price performance of popular stocks in various related industries, many investment institutions in the entire market have focused their attention on this area, deepening this Leading investment research capabilities.”

"in other words……"

"The future prospects of these two major fields are good. In the current market, everyone knows about Ji."

“Since everyone’s future development expectations and performance expectations for these two major fields are very good, it means that in these two major fields, everyone’s expectations are quite consistent. Large differences in market expectations naturally make it difficult to generate opportunities to obtain excess market profits."

"When you have a bright card in your hand, it's hard to surprise people."

"Moreover, precisely because everyone is optimistic about the future of the two major fields of "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain" and believe that there are still good investment opportunities, then, during the period, the related core stocks of the two major sectors , when the market has a relatively large correction, it will be difficult to fall through and there will be no obvious opportunity to fall."

"Of course, I'm not saying that these two major fields are not the same (this chapter is not over yet!)

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Investment opportunities exist. "

"But under the current situation where the market expectations for these two areas are relatively consistent, it is difficult to obtain market excess returns that exceed index fluctuations."

"Looking at some areas of the main board direction..."

"Under the compression of low expected valuations in which the market is completely pessimistic, it has already reached the bottom of the market's extreme valuation. At this time... as long as the market picks up a little and a gust of wind blows, then the future period changes slightly and the valuation rebounds, it will be easy to obtain Super market returns.”

"Of course, when the wind doesn't blow up."

“Active funds in the market will naturally converge in the areas with the greatest future expectations and the so-called certainty in the current market, which are the areas of “mobile Internet” and “smartphone industry chain” that you just mentioned.”

"Understood!" Liu Yuan said, "The core of investment transactions is still the words "expected difference." "

"Yes!" Su Yu said, "The financial trading market cannot allow most people to make money, so...it means that obvious opportunities are most likely not opportunities."

"The two core pillars of "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain"."

“When market expectations are consistent, there are no good investment opportunities. Only when there are differences in expectations between these two major areas over time and industry development, that is, highly good consensus expectations fail, and valuations are re-compressed. , when there is obvious differentiation in related stocks, it is a good opportunity to invest.”

"Before this, many main board industry sectors that have been compressed to the limit of valuation, completely abandoned by the market, and whose future expectations have been hit the bottom, under the stimulation of policies, have a reversal period, have better opportunities, so we The next investment focus should also be on this.”

"Mr. Su is talking about the real estate industry chain and infrastructure-related fields?" Liu Yuan asked.

Su Yu nodded slightly and said: "Yes, since the core driver of the macro economy is to return to the development of "urbanization construction" with the "real estate economy" as the core, the real estate industry has been in the doldrums for several years and has been restricted by policies for several years. The industrial chain, urban construction, and infrastructure sectors have sufficient expectations for a reversal."

When the three of them talked, it was already 9:20.

I saw that after 5 minutes of first-party bidding transactions, the market pattern of stocks in the two cities generally opening high has fallen back a lot. Among nearly 2,000 stocks, only 53% of the stocks were in the red market, and at the beginning of the first-party bidding, the leading stocks Concept sectors related to "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain" that rose in the two cities, as well as related concept stocks, all fell sharply. On the contrary, the real estate and construction-related industry sectors that Su Yu had just visited climbed up the industry sectors in the two cities. The sector topped the list of gainers.

Moreover, in the entire "central enterprise state-owned assets reform conceptual sector", local state-owned enterprises related to real estate and infrastructure have also entered the forefront of the conceptual sector's growth list, driven by selling funds.

Seeing this scene, Su Yu couldn't help but laugh and said: "It seems... there are still a lot of smart funds in the market who know how to attack in this direction."

The reform of state-owned assets of central enterprises is superimposed on the concept of real estate and infrastructure industries that have the conditions for recovery.

Su Yu guessed that this should be the next most investment opportunity and most differentiated field in the market.

“But overall, buying is still insufficient.” Li Meng said, “What’s more, the funds are attacking large-cap stocks of central enterprises such as Gemdale, Poly, Kewan, Huatie, China Construction, and Huaye. In the current market I am afraid that the overall capacity cannot pull these things off. The concept of "reform of central enterprises and state-owned assets" is too big. There should not be much opportunity until the market fully recovers.)

Su Yu said, "With the current market volume, it will definitely be difficult to suddenly pull this up, but undoubtedly... this is a signal that proves that the market style is indeed slowly changing, and that there are smart investment opportunities that are already there." In this regard, we are actively adjusting positions and making orders.”

"For us, as long as we go in the right direction, that's fine."

"Patience, we have plenty of it."

"Then we..." Liu Yuan asked, "can we aggressively follow the position and take advantage of the opportunity to heat up the market?"

Su thought for a while and said: "Don't worry, although the index is currently at the bottom of the range between 2000 and 2200 points, and the market has indeed shrunk to the extreme position, (this chapter is not over yet!)

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However, the market's panic was not released quickly, and the index... was still short of the final drop! "

"Please be patient and wait a little longer. The panic in the market will not be unleashed in a concentrated manner."

"When you pull up at this position, the pressure cannot be reduced, and even if it bounces, the space is not large. Only by clearing the meat plate and reducing the internal pressure can there be enough room for rebound, and we... can make a good market move."

"Okay!" Liu Yuan nodded and stopped talking.

And now, the time has reached 9:25, and the market bidding has ended.

Although the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and ChiNext Index all opened higher, the opening range was only between 0.11% and 0.15%, which was still lower than the expectations of market investors. Moreover, the concept of "central enterprises and state-owned assets reform" was detonated by Huaguo Petrochemical. The sector only rose by 0.35%. Within the sector, only a few small stocks such as "Shenzhen Technology, SDIC Capital, and Huajiao Real Estate" increased by more than 5%.

Then, at 9:30, the two cities officially opened for trading.

More than 100 stocks in the concept sector of "state-owned enterprise and state reform", after temporarily rising high, began to fall back, continued to be weak, and selling increased sharply. It seems that the trapped funds in the market took advantage of the "Hua Petrochemical Mixed-ownership Reform Suspension" It is good to speed up the exit of the elephant.

The two main areas are "mobile Internet" and "smartphone industry chain" in the direction of the small and medium-sized board and the GEM.

Many popular stocks that were continuously speculated last year have also gone out of the pattern of rising and falling as the trading time goes by, with no sign of the end of the adjustment.

Overall…

Even if there are corresponding benefits in the market, the money-making effect is still sluggish.

After the main board's concept of "state-owned enterprises and state-owned assets reform" and the small and medium-sized board and GEM's "mobile Internet and smart phone industry chain" concepts were unable to generate sustained market prices and attract large-scale funds to follow suit, the market trading time was after 10 o'clock. , the hot money on the market, which is still active in various quarters, began to focus on the low-level "Shanghai Free Trade Zone" concept, stimulating the pure Shanghai market such as "Waigaoqiao, Shanghai Sanmao, Shanghai Steel Union, Shibei High-tech" Free trade zone concept stocks are used to heat up the market and drive market sentiment.

However, after a short period of capital gathering.

When the Shanghai stock market rose by 30 cents, it was smashed from the daily limit.

This move by hot money was a complete failure, and the market returned to its downward trend.

In the afternoon, when the market continued to fall, when the weight could be reduced to the limit, the trapped hot money started to promote the concept of "sub-new stocks" in an attempt to save the market sentiment.

In the end, we were faced with really sluggish market sentiment and a market with no follow-up effect.

This kind of behavior of various hot money still ended in failure.

Finally, at 3 o'clock, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell again by 0.75%, reaching 2018.19, very close to the 2000 point mark, while the ChiNext Index fell below 1100 points, returning to the previous shock of 1000 points to 1100 points. Support platform.

Faced with such a weak market performance...

After several attacks and failures, the hot-money investors are desperate; under the favorable conditions of the "Huaguo Petrochemical Mixed Ownership Reform Suspension", the institutions that have followed the concept of "state-owned enterprise reform" and held positions are full of grievances and feel that the market is really unsatisfactory. It makes sense; the vast majority of people who have been buried for too long and no longer dare to look at their accounts are even more heartbroken and feel that the stock market is really gone.

And due to the continued sluggish performance of the market after the Spring Festival)

After several major indexes closed in the negative territory for two consecutive months in December and January last year, now there is another negative line, which ruined the upward trend that was finally restored in the first half of last year and pulled the market back into a deep bear market. Market confidence and investment sentiment have once again hit rock bottom.

"Look at this form, next...2000 points will be broken!"

After the closing of the monthly line, some people in the market, among the vast group of retail investors who had collapsed and despaired, made assertions.

"Hey, even if you reach the bottom of the box, you can't even put it upside down. It's like this. It's weird that it can stay at 2,000 points."

"Yeah, the year before last I was shouting about the 2000-point defense war, and last year I was also shouting about the 2000-point defense war, and now I'm still shouting... It's really useless (this chapter is not finished!)

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After all, looking back ten years, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is still hanging around 2,000 points. Looking at the global market, I have never seen anything outrageous. "

"Ten years above zero, do you think that's nonsense?"

"I'm tired! I had expectations again and again, but every time I was disappointed.

"I really didn't expect that the market was like that in the second half of last year. In three months, the market would fall back to its original point."

"The index has returned to its original point, but many individual stocks have hit record lows again!"

"Hey, I can't hold on to 2,000 points. I really don't know where the bottom is? I'll sell them all next week, what the hell...I don't want to play in this market anymore)"

"It's really miserable. It's not just us retail investors. In recent times, hot money investors have also suffered heavy losses!

"Today, the hot money has changed again and again on the attack path, but it has never brought up the mood. Let's see... next week is a new month, and the hot money that entered today will be completely cut off."

"Hey, the bear market never tells the bottom. It really makes people despair."

"It has been falling for more than three years. The bear market from 2002 to 2005 did not feel so difficult."

"What's outrageous is that today, major brokerage institutions and securities media are still shouting that the future is promising. With the bull market starting, 2,000 points are no longer guaranteed. How can we get bullishness?"

"If you look at the K-line upside down, won't the bull come?"

"Hey, these institutions and media may be looking at the K-line backwards.

"Hey, I feel like there are fewer people on the forum. The number of hot topics has almost doubled compared to early December last year!"

"I've lost so much that I don't even want to open my account. How can I still be in the mood to chat, read stock market trends, and read forum news? I feel like if the market continues to fall, it will have to go back to the trend of more than 1,000 stocks in the two cities, and the whole body is woven."

"It's almost there now. I bought stocks, and the trading volume in one day was only 1.36 million. Can you believe it? It's the trading volume, it's the trading volume. I think 1 million can raise the daily limit, but it's a pity... Is it possible to enter or not? Come on, with this kind of transaction volume, the big traders on the market simply can’t sell it.”

"The liquidity crisis is getting closer."

"Hey, there is no money-making effect. OTC funds will not come in. Without incremental funds, there will be no big benefits."

"To make money, we need real money. If the country doesn't get started at this time, who will do it? Are we counting on hot money, institutions? After a few rounds of hot money, they are all trapped. The machine... I heard that there are 90% in the market." % of public institutions cannot distribute their products, and existing products are being redeemed one after another. In this way, it would be good if the institutions do not sell the products to deal with the redemptions. How can they have the money to raise the prices? "

"Public equity institutions can't do it, let alone private equity institutions."

"In just the past three months, the market has continued to fall unilaterally. In the Lujiazui area, at least more than 500 private equity investment companies have closed down."

"We can only count on Mr. Su..."

"Yes, Mr. Su now has nearly 10 billion in cash, and the "Wealth Road" has great appeal to the market. If Mr. Su enters the market on a large scale and goes long, emotions can be stirred up, right? As long as emotions and the money-making effect can If you get up, you can attract incremental funds. If you have incremental funds, are you still afraid of losing your love?"

"Kesu's seat has been gone for three months since it was cleared in early December last year."

"Hey, all the flowers have faded after waiting."

"I'm so eager to see what's going on. When will the "Wealth Road" return?

"The key "Yuhang No. 1" fund and "Yu No. 2" fund have not announced their net worth and position data recently. They are fully aware of Mr. Su's movements!"

"Wait! Wait patiently. If you don't see the "road to wealth", no matter how the index or market changes, I won't enter the market."

In the pessimistic discussions among the majority of retail investors, everyone is also looking forward to Su Yu and "the seat on Fortune Road..."

At this moment, the entire trading department of "Yuhang Investment" company.

In terms of macro trading strategy, we still maintain the standard, gradually build positions, wait patiently for the market to have further expected differences and market resonance, and still maintain silence to the outside world.

At this moment, Su Yu, after finishing the company's affairs, was already at Delina's (this chapter is not finished yet!)

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Accompanied)

He arrived at the place agreed with Yang Hao and further discussed the other party's intention to acquire the "land on the eastern suburbs of Qianjiang River" in his hands.

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