New Shun 1730

We are not afraid of Japan's ambitions or even revenge, but we are afraid of Japan lying down and waiting for death.

If Japan really lies down and waits for death, it will use unscrupulous means to strengthen the "Frugal Order", strengthen the prohibition of civilians wearing gold and silver, strictly order samurai to be content with poverty and not wear silk and porcelain, continue to rule with the old ruling methods, and deepen the social deadness, then the Dashun side can only fight again.

But as long as it does not lie down and wait for death, there is no way to avoid a problem.

Money.

Before Liu Yu went to Edo to deliver sweet potatoes, even the weakening of the various feudal lords' participation in the court was stopped. There was really no other way to make money except being a comprador.

The corrupt Qing Dynasty could run the Thirteen Factories and monopolize the export trade to Europe. It fought from Lake Balkhash to Nepal and then to Myanmar with a half-generation gap in the matchlock and flint. It is not the so-called abundant martial virtues, but only the ability to krypton gold and the ability to krypton to afford 1.1 or 1.2 billion taels for decades.

Japan does not have anything that can be exported in bulk. The short-lived rise of porcelain eighty years ago was only because of the chaos at the end of the Ming Dynasty. Europeans could not get goods in the Central Plains. It happened that Toyotomi Hideyoshi robbed some porcelain craftsmen on the Korean battlefield.

Since you can't make money by exporting, you can only choose to make money by importing.

Liu Yu kindly gave a 6% tariff, not out of kindness, but to give the shogunate an incentive to expand imports. Anyway, those who can afford silk don't mind the 6% tax. When the machine textile industry develops in the future and it is necessary to expand the market for Japanese people, you can beat them up and ask for a reduction in tariffs.

Tokugawa Yoshimune knew that Liu Yu had no good intentions. Seeing Liu Yu's "Isn't it beautiful?", he thought to himself that gold and silver are so useless, why are you like a fly seeing blood? Why don't you Dashun give away all the gold and silver, isn't it beautiful?

But now there are wolves in front and tigers behind.

With Liu Yu's face looking for money, Tokugawa Yoshimune was sure that Liu Yu hadn't said half a word.

If the shogunate issues a frugality order, then Dashun can change the shogunate. It may be a bit troublesome for Dashun to conquer on its own. The samurai are afraid of being equal to the four classes and having their privileges cancelled, so they will definitely fight to the death. But from the Date clan to the Mori clan and then to the Nabeshima clan, it is not difficult to support a new shogunate. At most, 30,000 or 40,000 hatamoto with large-scale field combat capabilities will fight a field battle of the scale of the Battle of Hagi Castle, and the Tokugawa shogunate will collapse on its own.

Don't change it, just wait for death.

Change it, it seems that the method given by Liu Yu is really the only feasible one. The premise is that the shogunate still rules, otherwise there are many ways, not just this one.

Tokugawa Yoshimune has suffered a great loss from the sweet potato famine relief and coinage reform, and now he is really neither up nor down.

After carefully thinking about the ideas given by Liu Yu, it seems that it is indeed feasible.

If the annual tariffs, franchises, sulfur and copper monopoly, etc. can add 3 to 4 million taels of revenue to the shogunate, it can indeed support a 10,000 to 20,000-man special force in addition to the regular troops, and it can also open some schools in the core areas of the Tokugawa direct jurisdiction.

Other options are unrealistic. Whether it is Britain or the Netherlands, they have not yet demonstrated the strength that can shock Japan. Moreover, under the inertia of so many years of isolation, they can only learn Western tools, and it is absolutely impossible to learn Western ways.

Sinology has a very broad foundation in Japan. As a subculture and derivative culture of the Chinese cultural circle, there is no shortage of Confucian scholars from top to bottom. And basically keep up with the mainstream of the times. Dashun has comprehensively reflected on Zhu Xi's school, and Japan has also begun to have a school of ancient Confucianism.

However, this matter has some hesitant aspects for the rule of Japan and the entire Tokugawa shogunate.

"Mr. Liu is a Chinese, but he does not understand the Confucian principles, nor the virtues of Mingjiao."

"During the Song Dynasty, Su Zi said: The survival of a country depends on the depth of morality, not on strength or weakness; the length of a calendar depends on the thickness of customs, not on wealth or poverty."

"Gu Yanwu, a great Confucian scholar in your country, also had works circulated in Nagasaki. According to what he said, the Song Dynasty was destroyed by Wang Jinggong's reform. If the laws such as the Qingmiao Law are harmful to the people, the harm to the people can be changed in one day."

"However, after Jinggong's reform, people's hearts were attracted by profit and forgot righteousness, which was the root cause of the Song Dynasty's demise. This is not like the Qingmiao Law that harmed the people, which could be abolished in one day. This kind of trend of seeking profit and forgetting righteousness, forming parties and talking about profit, has been a disaster for a hundred years without knowing it."

"Xiaoya·Jiaogong" says: Don't teach monkeys to climb trees, just like a mud stick. Monkeys don't need to be taught to climb trees, they will learn it by themselves Climb. But Wang Jinggong always talks about money and profit, which is teaching the world's "monkeys" to climb trees, making the world's scholars and people all pursue profit and forget righteousness. "

"Mr. Liu asked me to broadcast Zhu Xi's teachings in Japan, but he also asked me to encourage extravagant consumption; he asked me to run schools to seek talents and reward Confucian scholars, but he asked me not to allow samurai to be content with poverty. How is this different from going in the opposite direction?"

"The shogunate seeks profit, isn't this teaching Japan's customs to "teach monkeys to climb trees"? If it doesn't work, Japan's customs will change... Then there will be no way out. "

"If you don't use the magic, it doesn't work, you can still return to the samurai law; if you use this magic, the customs will change and you can't retreat. "

"Mr. Liu is digging the root of the problem, you can only advance, but not retreat. "

After reading it, Liu Yu stared at the sentence "The reason why a country survives or dies depends on the depth of morality, not on strength or weakness", thinking, do you believe it yourself?

It's nothing more than worrying that the plan will not work out, the military system will collapse, and the great task of unifying and reducing the feudal lords has not been completed, so there is no way out.

This is the standard of doing big things but cherishing one's life, always thinking about leaving a way out, but now you can't retreat if you want to, and you can't move forward if you don't want to.

If they really implement the frugality order, after dealing with the Dutch in Southeast Asia, they will definitely have to fight again if they see that the trade volume in Japan has not increased significantly. At that time, they will not be so polite. Why bother?

If there is no frugality order and no administrative means to control the trade volume, the samurai system will inevitably collapse.

I thought to myself, you can do whatever you want. If you really want to do it, you can't do it without doing it for decades, two or three generations. After two or three generations, the times will have changed. By then, Dashun's industry will be eager to get rid of the samurai class and have a broader Japanese bottom market.

Japan is not just a geographical term like India, and it still has no early national consciousness; nor is it like India with a suitable climate and abundant arable land. It is the best raw material base for cotton and indigo that can be found around Dashun. Resources are also scarce, which makes it unsuitable as a raw material base for orthodox colonial rule.

At this time, seeing that Tokugawa Yoshimune was still thinking about a way out, Liu Yu also showed his fangs directly.

"This matter is not about the general, but about the fact that the Celestial Empire does not allow the general to retreat. If the general wants to leave a way out, how can the Celestial Empire sell more goods? Then wouldn't this war be fought in vain? Does the general really want the Celestial Empire to fight again, or to support a new shogun who prefers to take the benefits of tariffs and trade monopoly? Or is he thinking about the freedom of each domain to trade with the Celestial Empire?"

After the aggressive pen, there were huge ships and cannons on the sea of ​​Edo. Faced with such humiliation, there were no outsiders around. Tokugawa Yoshimune knew that Dashun would not allow him to retreat, so he had to ask about the content of the secret agreement.

That is, what conditions should the shogunate agree to Dashun so that Dashun can guarantee the rule of the Tokugawa clan and ensure that Dashun will not object when Tokugawa reduces the domain in the future.

These conditions cannot be clearly written in the content of the treaty, and they are also the reason why Liu Yu agreed to meet Tokugawa Yoshimune this time. He is not here to debate with Tokugawa Yoshimune about whether the survival of a country depends on strength or morality.

The terms of the secret agreement are not very complicated.

First, Dashun sent people to assist Japan in handling customs and checking tariffs at five commercial ports.

After clarifying the tariffs, no additional taxes, likin, and other similar things shall be added along the way for goods that have landed and paid the tariffs.

Dashun provided the shogunate with a batch of firearms and several warships, of course, they were bought with money. In return, the shogunate had to send people to work with Dashun officials to complete the exploration and mapping of Japan's territory to show obedience.

The shogunate shall not issue clauses such as frugality orders, nor prohibit merchants from going to the ports to trade, nor shall it rigidly stipulate the types of currencies used by merchants.

Whether it is Yuanwen money, Kyoho money, or even earlier gold and silver money, the merchants on the Dashun side will negotiate with the ancient Japanese on the exchange quantity and the ratio of gold and silver.

The shogunate shall not prohibit Dashun sea merchants from trading with gold and silver exchange merchants in Japan, and the shogunate shall not rigidly stipulate the gold and silver exchange ratio. Everything shall be negotiated by merchants on both sides.

When it comes to the issue of Dashun merchants committing crimes in Japan, the Dashun officials stationed in Nagasaki and other places will handle it together with the shogunate's commercial port.

The shogunate is not allowed to conduct diplomatic activities with Western countries privately. All exchanges with countries outside the Celestial Empire system must be reported to the capital, and the capital will conduct exchanges.

The shogunate has the obligation to maintain the closed-door system. Except for the five ports, if merchant ships from various countries come to trade privately, they will be sunk and captured.

For example, ships from Korea, Annan and other countries that "drift" to Japan should be sent to Nagasaki as soon as possible and escorted back to their country by Dashun. The cargo of ships drifting to Japan can belong to the shogunate. If Korea has any questions about this, the Dashun court will come forward to coordinate.

Rice, wheat and other grains, whether exported or imported, should be exempted from tariffs. The two countries should exchange what they have to help the people avoid hunger.

In order to deal with Satsuma in a low-key manner and to monitor that Satsuma would not invade Ryukyu again in the future, Dashun would use a piece of land in Satsuma and the Celestial Empire would station an army. The land money was paid by Dashun, and the shogunate came forward to exchange the land for the direct jurisdiction of the shogunate, and then lend it to Dashun, but there was no need to spread it.

Generally speaking, there are only a few points. In summary, it is nothing more than gold and silver arbitrage, no sovereignty for tributary vassal states, no tax increase for customs goods unloaded, prohibition of private trade between "colonies" bypassing the suzerain state, and blocking between Satsuma and Ryukyu to monitor the necessary route for Westerners to come to Japan.

Because of the trade surplus, a large amount of silver from the Americas, Europe, and Japan poured into China, causing China's gold and silver exchange rate to gradually fall from 20 to 30 years. And because of the outflow of silver and the high gold production in Japan, the gold and silver exchange rate was very high, so that Dashun's maritime merchants could completely rely on the gold and silver price difference to squeeze Japan's gold and silver prices to the same level as Dashun within a few years.

This is not a small amount, but a huge profit involving tens of millions of taels of silver. In other words, a navy of 100,000 tons must be discussed carefully with Tokugawa Yoshimune.

Japan has a strange currency habit of using gold in Kanto and silver in Kansai. The first to feel the impact of the eastern habit of using gold must be the territory directly under the Tokugawa clan. If this matter is not made clear, the Tokugawa clan will definitely be complaining within a year.