New Shun 1730

This era is quite embarrassing for Japan.

This is not the steam age, and there is no industrial revolution yet. Even if Japan tightens its belt at this time, lets women go to Dashun to be prostitutes to earn money and send it back, squeezes the people to death, and accumulates primitive capital, then what?

What can it do?

A hundred years later, it can tighten its belt, buy machines, develop industries, and keep up with the pace of the times.

Industrialization can suppress a large number of contradictions, feed more people, and suffer first and then sweeten.

What about now?

China's handicraft industry foundation is so strong that after Britain has developed steam engines for 60 years, it still forces Britain to sell opium to balance trade despite the generation gap.

What can Japan do at this time?

Even if the army is strengthened and the unequal treaties are abolished, what will happen next?

Later, Lu Xun wrote an article called "What will happen after Nora leaves". If the society does not change, it will either degenerate or come back. At this time, Japan is facing this dilemma of what will happen after Nora leaves.

If you really make up your mind, abolishing the unequal treaties is not an impossible task. But what happens after the abolition?

As long as there is trade, gold and silver will inevitably flow out; as long as there is a closed door policy, Japan will inevitably fall behind within a few decades.

Japan's current situation is completely different from the situation after the Qing Dynasty's Treaty of Opium. The most disgusting thing about the Treaty of Opium was opium, not the opening of ports and the 5% tariff. As long as there was no opium, there would still be a trade surplus of tens of millions of taels even with zero tariff.

The British could still figure out this weird thing called opium, what could Japan figure out at this time?

This is not a problem for Japan alone, but a problem that the whole world is thinking about at this time. How can we achieve a trade surplus with China?

Faced with this almost unsolvable problem, the Swedes were forced to steal silkworm seeds in Guangdong and try to raise silkworms in Stockholm, a place with a higher latitude than Heilongjiang; France was forced to send academicians of the Academy of Sciences to China as missionaries, and before the ban on religion, they took the initiative to go to Jiangxi to preach, gave gifts everywhere, and tried to steal porcelain technology; Britain was forced to use administrative means to prohibit British people from wearing pure cotton clothes.

If Japan does not think about trade, but about war and conquest, this era is a dead end for Japan.

If Japan wants to go out now, the only way left is to swallow up Dashun. It is blocked on all sides. Once the war starts, it will be a life-and-death war of annihilation, and no one will give the other side a chance.

Dashun can dismember Japan with the help of Japan's terrain and feudal system, which is much easier; Japan can only swallow up Dashun and cannot dismember it, and the difficulty is beyond description.

So Liu Yu asked Tokugawa Yoshimune, what do you want to do after strengthening the army? War serves politics, what is your purpose? What is your strategic plan?

He thought about it for ten years, but he didn't expect Japan to have any way out. At this time, he was really curious whether Tokugawa Yoshimune could say something that would open his eyes.

The ancients said, "If you hear the truth in the morning, you can die in the evening." Liu Yu did not have such a high realm, but he really wanted to get some ideas that would make him exclaim that there are people beyond people.

This question completely stunned Tokugawa Yoshimune.

Looking at the words written by Liu Yu, Tokugawa Yoshimune opened his mouth slightly, tilted his head half back, and turned into a wooden sculpture.

Even if the world changes, Dashun has no time to look east, then what?

Build ships, train soldiers, then what?

Take back the leased land, then what?

Just like Liu Yu said, one dare not touch the interests of the samurai, and two do not have the ability of five loaves and two fishes. If it is just to close the country and prevent the outflow of gold and silver, in the end, it is still not afraid of thieves stealing but afraid of thieves thinking about it.

Picking up the pen, he hesitated for a long time, and finally wrote about the Dutch issue on it.

"Some people have suggested that we should follow Xun Wenruo's strategy of driving the tiger to swallow the wolf. Using the exclusive right to open the port as bait, we promise that the Netherlands can monopolize Japan's trade as long as they drive your country away. Since Mr. Liu has a strategy and makes decisions after planning, he must have considered this matter. Could it be that in Mr. Liu's opinion, this plan is not feasible?"

This is different from Tokugawa Munetake's waiting for the world to change. When the world changes, it can be summed up as "doing human work and listening to fate". It depends on fate, and human work is just preparation for the moment when fate arrives.

Tokugawa Yoshimune knows that Liu Yu is far better than the cabinet officials of the shogunate in terms of understanding the outside world, and it is impossible for him not to consider this issue.

He wants to see what Liu Yu's attitude towards the Netherlands is through Liu Yu's answer.

Just now, Liu Yu joked and asked Tokugawa Yoshimune to learn the story of Chen She's family, which made Tokugawa Yoshimune laugh and cry. Now these lines are sent to Liu Yu, and Liu Yu is the one who is laughing and crying.

After reading it, I thought, that's it?

From the beginning of the war to now, Liu Yu felt that Japan's response was just like showing him how to explain "waiting for rabbits by the tree" and "looking for swords by carving a boat".

Liu Yu was not afraid that the Japanese had brains and strategic thinking. He was afraid that they had no brains and no strategic thinking, and when they got excited, they would create a lot of trouble out of thin air.

At this time, he felt that it was necessary to make the Japanese give up this idea completely. He smiled and shook his head and told Tokugawa Yoshimune the standard answer.

"The Dutch are good at trade, and their trade is systematic."

"The general has no idea what Japan's position in the Dutch trade is. I might as well tell the general today."

"The purpose of the Dutch trade with Japan is to get gold and silver, and then spend it in Guangdong, Fujian and Songjiang. Because the Netherlands does not produce gold and silver, and the merchants of the Celestial Empire only want silver, and do not accept the trading method of woolen cloth as a bargaining chip."

"Let me make it clearer. The purpose of the Dutch is to have enough cash when trading with the Celestial Empire, so they want to trade with Japan."

"It's like a person who wants to kill someone and chooses to practice swordplay, not because he likes swordplay, but because he wants to kill his enemy. The person who gave the general this idea thought that he just liked practicing swordplay, so he asked the swordsman to worship his enemy as his adoptive father. This is simply ridiculous."

"The general's staff are always like this. They don't know the purpose of doing things, nor do they know whether the policy is feasible. So they came up with the idea of ​​"Prohibition of Tenancy Law"."

"You don't know what purpose you want to achieve after strengthening your army, and then you have to strengthen your army."

"You don't know what the Dutch trade system is like, and then you think you can drive the tiger to swallow the wolf."

"This is the biggest problem of your country's counselors. They don't know the purpose and have no general plan. They always think that after setting a strategy, everything will develop according to the strategy you set."

"Here, I might as well advise the general that if the Dutch can eat meat in Japan with the Celestial Empire, they are happy; if the Dutch go to war with the Celestial Empire for Japan, they dare not."

"Because... the Dutch have brains, they know that they must think clearly about the purpose before doing things , benefits, returns, and how the war should end. ”

“From the beginning to the end, the Dutch’s goal was very clear, to get the goods in the world and sell them in the West.”

“For the former, they did not hesitate to occupy Zhoushan and Penghu; for the latter, they fought with Western powers.”

“Now that the former has been achieved, they are troubled by the latter. This is the main trunk, and trade with Japan is just a branch on this trunk.”

“In fact, the direction of this idea is correct, but when it comes to details, Japan can rely not on the Netherlands, but on the people who are interested in conquering the world and controlling A great country that is hegemonic by ritual, and this great country cannot be the Celestial Empire. This great country requires the world to establish rituals, ascend the throne as the Son of Heaven, set five mournings, and distinguish between the near and far. It believes that Dashun must compete for the importance of the tripod, so that it is possible to "use barbarians to control barbarians" and support Japan. "

"I think the general has read a lot of Dutch-style storytelling. In your opinion, does the Netherlands have the ambition to be the "Son of the World"? Does it have the strength to be the "Son of the World"? Or, can the Western countries have such a hegemonic country at this time? "

Tokugawa Yoshimune looked at this answer and sorted out what Liu Yu wanted to express, and his heart became heavier.

The more he sorted out, the more he felt that every word Liu Yu said made sense.

Sino-Dutch trade is the main trunk, and Japan-Dutch trade is just a branch on this trunk, just to get Japan's gold and silver to buy things in Dashun.

The Dutch will not cut down the trunk of the whole tree for branches.

Now think about it, so the Dutch refused to send troops immediately after the war broke out; only after the war was decided did they propose to trade in the five ports like Dashun.

What the main trunk is, it is obviously clear.

Although the Dutch promised to help Japan, were they just lip service?

The idea of ​​relying on external forces is correct, but only the "Son of Heaven" will use the means of "using barbarians to control barbarians". In today's world, who dares to call himself the Son of Heaven? Who has the ambition and strength to rule the world?

Tokugawa Yoshimune's poor understanding of the outside world from Dutch storytelling made him really unable to find such a country.

Think about it again, Tokugawa Munetake's idea is not to hope that external forces will become the Son of Heaven and support Japan to control barbarians with barbarians.

It is similar to "Zhou borrowed the Shang Dynasty to conquer the Eastern Barbarians". In his heart, he still recognized China as the Son of Heaven, but just hoped that China would conquer the barbarians and was unable to pay attention to Japan.

This is not looking forward to "Qin lost its deer and the world chased it together". Because Yitiao Jianxiang said that if Qin lost its power, the most likely possibility was that Zhao Tuo would establish himself as king, and Japan would not be qualified to compete for it. Instead, it would be likely to be regarded as Guilin and Xiangjun by the navy of Dashun, with the ocean as the Five Ridges and Four Passes, and the warships as the old Qin of Nanhai County with 500,000 men.

This condition is already very harsh.

First of all, it must not be a civil strife in Dashun, but a conflict between the Nanman forces and Dashun on the scale of a war to destroy the country.

Secondly, the external forces and Dashun must both suffer losses at sea, and neither side can win completely, otherwise it will be no different to drive away the tiger and bring in the wolf.

Then the war must last for 20 years to give Japan the opportunity to reduce its vassal status and build ships.

Finally, the navy of Dashun and the navy of Nanman must be completely destroyed, so that Japan can benefit from it.

These four conditions are indispensable, but in fact, if all these four conditions are met, it is not just as simple as God's blessing, but the extent that the Emperor of Heaven worships Japan as his father.

Even if all this is achieved, it goes back to the question Liu Yu asked him, even if there is such an opportunity, what is Japan's purpose? What do you want to gain from war?

If you want to close the country, you will be punished for holding a treasure, and you will be beaten sooner or later.

If you want to abolish the unequal treaties, Dashun can now follow the example of the trade in the Joseon Huitongguan and set aside a piece of land for Japan in Dashun. Is there any difference in replacing the unequal treaties on trade with equal treaties?

In a moment of silence, Liu Yu tried to speak in Japanese for the first time.

"General, if I thought Japan still had a chance to endure hardships, the Privy Council would not fight like this, but would directly tear Japan back to the Warring States period."