New Shun 1730

In fact, there are many people in the Dashun court who really want to help France.

Because some of the old people who followed Liu Yu to carry out the Fusang immigration, the Yellow River diversion, and participated in Li Li's frontier railways, infrastructure industry and coup after Liu Yu fled, who were "both theoretical and practical", have not completely died out.

These people know very well that France is going to have a big event.

They may not be able to think of a radical republic that "seems like a plague in old Europe", or they may not be worried about it.

They just interpret it purely from the perspective of geopolitics and economy. If France really has a big event, Europe will also be completely messed up; and once Europe is in a mess, the problem will be transmitted to Dashun due to economic factors.

Of course, the "big event" here is not only the "Physiocracy" or "Natural Order" to take the blame.

Rather, their opposite, Colbertism, is actually also under the banner of "Trusting China to Reform".

Moreover, their reforms have laid more landmines than the Physiocrats.

How to understand this "reform by supporting China"?

Because Dashun is developing well now, Dashun is right.

The question is, is Dashun's system the natural order of the Physiocrats? Or Colbert's mercantilism?

Because Dashun is developing well now and is the world's number one empire.

So if you want to reform, you must support China. And France itself is the source of Colbertism in Europe, and France has a strong tradition of Colbertism, which also makes the anti-Physiocrats hold the dual banners of Dashun and Colbert.

In short, Dashun is not optimistic about the new king of France.

When Liu Yu evaluated the previous generation of French kings, many old people of the practical school knew about it. It is said that Louis XV is a pure opportunist leader. You see, this opportunistic problem is difficult to change.

Whether it was the initial impulsiveness of wanting to win by seizing Hanover to force Britain to negotiate, or the later failure of Hanover and the desperate gamble of building ships to land in Britain, all of them reflected this opportunistic nature.

Later, when Dashun fell, France, as the victor of World War I, Louis XV's prestige increased and he prepared for reform, which showed this opportunistic nature to the fullest.

To reform, you have to start with the Paris High Court - how to understand this Paris High Court? To use an inappropriate metaphor, in some stories, it is similar to the Eight Kings' Political Consultative Conference of the Qing Dynasty. Don't think that it is a good thing to have the name of a high court. This is similar to the Magna Carta and other things.

Then, it was opportunistic. Before it was ready, it directly overturned the Paris High Court. There was no preparation, no advance layout, and when the head was hot, I thought there was an opportunity, so I overturned it.

In general, in Dashun, the evaluation of Louis XV was not high because of Liu Yu's lead.

However, whether it is high or not is relative.

When it comes to this generation, the evaluation of Louis XVI by Dashun is just two words: Chongzhen.

He loves reform.

But it is like flipping pancakes.

Today, if there is trouble with the Physiocrats, they will be dismissed and all overthrown; if there is trouble with the opposite of the Physiocrats, Colbertism, they will be dismissed again and all overthrown; if there is trouble with the Physiocrats again, they will be replaced by the Physiocrats again...

How can reform be like flipping pancakes? The policy changes every three years, and when it changes, it is directly reversed?

How can there be no trouble with such changes?

Moreover, these two factions are all under the banner of "supporting China to reform the system", which has made Dashun full of shit now.

If the reform of the Physiocrats is called "supporting the ancient system to reform the system" in the idiom of Dashun,

then the reform of the Colbert faction under the banner of Dashun is purely "imitating the ugly".

There is no need to mention the problem of the Physiocrats here.

The reform of the Colbert faction is directly related to the conversation between Liu Yu and Li Xi before he left.

To be more specific, the railway.

To be more specific, it is also somewhat similar to the problem that Li Xi faced at the beginning: he did not dare to change the tax system, change the land ownership system, and implement equal distribution of land.

As for the railway, Dashun set an example and indeed led to the rapid economic development of Dashun in recent years.

Therefore, France also needs to build railways.

Technology is not a problem.

The problem is still money.

The reform of the Physiocrats is to directly touch the interests of the old forces.

Turgot's reforms, whether it is the unified taxation of gentry, the conscription law, the elimination of regional economy in France, the abolition of guilds, etc., all touch the interests of the old forces. Moreover, because it was too radical, especially the policy of unrestricted grain exports, it directly led to the flour war, so it also offended the bottom.

After flipping the pancake.

How can the Colbert faction come to power? Do they have to continue the reform of the Physiocrats and touch the old forces?

Obviously not.

Jacques Necker, who came to power, saw the economic development of Dashun and the rapid industrialization driven by railway infrastructure, and felt that this was a good way to go.

Colbertism itself requires state control, or government-run economy.

At the same time, he did not want to touch the old forces.

So, Necker put forward the slogan, "The people are not taxed more and the state has enough money" - the people here obviously refer to the aristocracy, because the reforms of the Physiocrats must be reversed.

Historically, it was because Louis XVI insisted on selling his head to aid the United States.

Aiding the United States requires money.

Where does the money come from?

To some extent, Necker's statement that "the people are not taxed more and the state has enough money" is not bragging. At least, during the American War of Independence, France really did not increase taxes, and Necker really got the money.

How did he do it?

An old French tradition.

John Law's way: the Ministry of Finance directly engaged in financial fraud and inflated the bubble. Although it will explode sooner or later, when it didn't explode, it did achieve "the people are not taxed more and the state has enough money."

How did this bubble blow?

Pension annuity.

The court endorsed and the Ministry of Finance came forward: 10% annual interest, one year of life. If you live for ten years, you will get your money back; if you live for twenty years, you will make a lot of money. If you live for thirty years, you will get a big bargain.

Necker himself is a financier in Geneva, and his promise to the financiers in Geneva in private is even more ridiculous: 13% annual interest!

A total of 500 million or 600 million were borrowed, but the problem is that this stuff, as long as you are alive, you have to pay it back.

Moreover, with an annual interest rate of 13%, basically, in Europe at that time, it can be determined that you are greedy for interest and others want your principal.

In the end, either you default on your debts; or you print money and issue paper money, or repay bonds.

If you want to say whether he has achieved "no additional taxes on the people and sufficient national expenditures", it should be said that he has achieved it.

But the question is what to do in the future?

Finance is really amazing.

For the French, John Law's bubble has not been over for a long time, but they still joined the game.

Of course, this is a common situation around the world. In history, even during the Qing Dynasty, a group of people jumped off the building because of the large-scale development of real estate in the concessions. In less than ten years, they speculated wildly in mining stocks again; after the explosion, they actually "believed" in the rubber concept stocks with a 50% return rate, and the last wave came up with the Railway Protection Movement.

Of course, history has changed here. Because of the post-war structure of World War I, the independence movement in North America was suppressed. Of course, there was the factor that France was stuck in North America and was not driven away. Therefore, selling one's head to aid the United States does not exist.

However, the rapid development of Dashun and the construction of infrastructure and railways set a model.

The failure of the reform of the Physiocracy School also made the Colbert School want to learn from Dashun: no additional taxes on the people, development of infrastructure, no money from the old forces, and solving financial problems through development.

So, money is needed.

To get money, "no additional taxes on the people" must be done, and the old interests must not be touched.

Then history will repeat itself, and capital will be raised through pension annuities and usury. What else can we do?

This has to talk about the issue of "Dong Shi Xiou Pin".

Indeed, including Liu Yu's original Fusang immigration and the diversion of the Yellow River, the company that raised capital was directly named "Bubble Company".

Looking at this name, it is a tribute to John Law's Mississippi Bubble.

Promise high interest.

However, the bubble did not burst, because Fusang is really a gold mountain and silver mountain.

After that, Li Li's large infrastructure construction followed the same routine.

Promise high returns.

Attracting capital.

In the end, it didn't burst.

However, the bubble didn't burst because... a lot of factors mentioned before.

Dashun has no shortage of labor.

Dashun's private ownership has long been established.

Dashun's external expansion created a soybean market.

The area north of the Songliao watershed in Dashun is suitable for growing soybeans.

Once the railway was built, it immediately had the perfect conditions for "capitalism". Land quickly became a means of production among the capitalist production factors and quickly increased in value.

Therefore, in the end, the bubble didn't burst, and the principal and interest were repaid, and it also led to a wave of rapid development in Dashun.

The problem lies precisely in these "conditions".

Dashun has them, but France doesn't.

Just looking at Xi Shi holding her heart, everyone says that holding her heart is beautiful. You Dong Shi also learned it, but you don't think about it, is it holding her heart that is beautiful? Or is Xi Shi beautiful?

It's useless to just hold your heart without making your face like Xi Shi. It will make people laugh.

What is Liu Yu's set?

It is equivalent to selling the state-owned assets of North America's gold and silver mountains at a low price to prevent the bubble from bursting.

What is Li Li's plan?

It is equivalent to selling the 200 million mu of developable state-owned land north of the Songliao watershed at a low price and paying back the interest and principal.

Then what does France sell to prevent the bubble from bursting and pay back the interest and principal?

Land? Land in North America?

Capitalism is a social relationship.

Under certain conditions, these lands can become capital; without these conditions, these lands are just land, not capital, and do not have the valuation in the sense of capital.

Moreover, the railway thing will lead to the re-emergence of the Physiocrats - doesn't it solve the transportation problem that the Physiocrats have been worried about before? It not only facilitates free trade and grain exports; but also facilitates the regulation of grain prices to stabilize the situation in case of accidents?

In short, it is the Colbert faction, after seeing Dashun's infrastructure construction, they imitated it and also did it crazily.

After the operation, the economy did not pick up and a lot of debts were left. The high interest promised at the beginning was about to be repaid...

Isn't this bullshit? A loan of 560 million, repaid at an annual interest rate of 10% or 13%, do you have gold mines in France?

And the most annoying thing is...there is something wrong with the statistical data Necker got.

Liu Yu promoted cowpox in Dashun, which made cowpox spread and solved the smallpox problem. It increased the average life expectancy of the world by about three years, including America. At that time, it was more than a hundred children who borrowed to cross the Pacific Ocean, and used children as petri dishes to cross the Pacific Ocean.

The statistics Necker used were before the promotion of cowpox!

He engaged in the loan financing of pension annuities, and the data underestimated the average life expectancy by three years. Anyone who knows a little about the insurance industry knows what the underestimation of life expectancy by three years means for pension insurance.

It will definitely explode.

Besides, the situations and conditions of different countries are different.

Let alone France at this time.

Even in later generations... many countries borrowed money to build infrastructure, but not all of them developed well. A large number of countries not only did not develop but also went bankrupt, owed a lot of debts, and even had a deficit every year.

France was originally a standard first-mover country in history, but it eventually became a usurious imperialism.

Well, now, the market is squeezed by Dashun, and agriculture is crushed by North America. North America has land, but only 100,000 immigrants came in the past 100 years. After Dashun built the railway and got Indian sugar and Japanese sugar, there were no less than 300,000 or 500,000 people going north of the Songliao watershed every year. Capitalism is a social relationship. How can social relationships come from people?

Local? There is no legal reform in the local area, and private ownership has not been clarified. It is troublesome to get a piece of land: it is unclear who the land belongs to.

Moreover, the land comes with the rights of farmers to glean and graze; the rights of nobles to raise pigeons and hunt, etc. There are a lot of things to buy. Private ownership of land means that this piece of land is mine, what about the rights of gleaning, grazing, raising pigeons, hunting, etc.

At this time, no one in France clearly owns a piece of land.

From a legal point of view, including the king and those nobles, theoretically, no one owns a piece of land that clearly belongs to him in a legal sense.

Of course, if it is not personal, it is fine.

It is also OK if it is clearly state-owned. Collecting differential rent is the most radical capitalist land system selected by Ilyich.

The problem is that state-owned land is not a system either.

The key to the problem lies here.

France does not have a Napoleonic Code now. That is, private ownership and property rights are not defined.

The essence of private ownership is not "I have it".

It is "convenient to buy".

Private ownership is not a system that I have. It is for the convenience of others to buy it.

To be more specific: France's railways have been built. However, France's feudal system has seriously constrained the development of productivity. The feudal system must be overthrown in order to develop France's economy.

In particular, the feudal law on land. The feudal rights on the land, whether noble or peasant, are all feudal. Including the right to glean and the right to graze, are also feudal rights.

Private ownership is to smash all these old feudal rights, whether they are good or bad in morality. What's mine is mine, and what's yours is yours. When capitalists want to buy, it's not that troublesome.

For example, if there is a Napoleonic Code now.

Once the railway is built, agriculture will be profitable. Capitalists have ten thousand ways to bankrupt small farmers. At that time, they can mortgage the land, take over the land and merge it. The property rights are clear and the merger is guaranteed.

You owe money and don't pay it back? This is not the feudal era. In the feudal era, the capitalists could not take your land if the land was not yours, because the land was not yours at all. You were most likely a perpetual tenant farmer, and legally not a self-cultivating farmer at all. You think you are, but in fact you are not.

Now with the "Napoleonic Code", you have full disposal rights over your land, take the land.

So, at this time, it was the feudal land system in France that seriously hindered the development of French productivity.

Then, then, having said this, there is no need to say: dead end.

The railway did not play the role of an economic engine in the current situation in France.

And the huge debt is about to explode.

At the same time, the Physiocrats will come to power again and implement the Physiocratic economic policy, and the railway is more likely to become the fuse for France to explode.

Everything has two sides.

Even the railway, which sounds like a technological advancement with all the benefits, is not the case.

In Dashun, the railway from Beijing to Hankou was under strict control, similar to the Grand Canal. Its main function was to transport troops, provide disaster relief, and stabilize grain prices, and it was not for profit at all. It was just a tool for the court to use technology to strengthen the old order internally.

In India, the railway was also called the Road of Bones and the Road of Famine. This is not because of the deaths caused by the construction of the railway. Compared with the Road of Bones and the Road of Famine, the number of deaths caused by the construction of the railway is still less.

Rather, it is because the construction of the railway made the railway like an artery, allowing commercial capital and colonial rule to flow rapidly along the railway.

Robbery, forced purchase, forced cotton planting, forced planting of cash crops, lending, price suppression... Comparing the repeated famines in India since the colonial era in history, we can clearly find the law that "famine is distributed along the railway line".

The principle is the same.

The French Physiocrats had already launched several flour wars before.

What does the emergence of railways mean for the economic policies of the Physiocrats?

It means that once the price of grain rises abroad, with the help of railways, France's second nationwide large-scale flour war will break out.

Although it sounds strange, the fact is that the "social consciousness" of French peasants and the lower classes is still the social consciousness of the feudal era, and they do not have the social consciousness of the capitalist natural order.

For example, seeing that local grain is shipped out, causing local grain prices to rise, they are likely to smash grain stores, warehouses, and capitalists.

In short, the French people of this generation are not good enough, and they still lack the morality under real private ownership: the morality under real private ownership should be that if you feel that you can't afford the grain, you don't eat it, but you can't smash the grain that others have hoarded.

That is their grain, you have no right to dispose of it, let alone sell it out, and it has nothing to do with you if they burn it.

Of course, there are two sides to things.

To put it in a positive way, the railway also means that the French government can stabilize grain prices through national regulation and better transportation capacity when famine occurs.

But this involves the issue of debate.

For example, in Alsace and Lorraine, grain prices soared. Historically, in the Flour War of 1975, France gave subsidies and financial subsidies.

So, subsidies, financial aid, and certain rewards for each load of grain given to merchants... Is this the natural order?

So, if your government can give grain subsidies and rewards today, does it mean that you will interfere with the economy tomorrow and establish an absolute monarchy the day after tomorrow?

People in Dashun may think that this is a mental illness?

But in Europe, it is not.

Let's not mention the denominations of Eastern Orthodox Catholics, just Protestantism: Lutheranism, Reformed, Reformed, Anglican, Presbyterian, Congregational, Baptist, New Congregational, Old Congregational, Evangelical, Wesleyan, Methodist, Methodist, Evangelical, Missionary, Missionary, Charismatic, Pentecostal, Assemblies of God, Fundamentalism, Anabaptism, Mennonite, Quaker...

Whether to eat leavened bread or unleavened bread, this can be beaten to a pulp.

The Reformation wiped out one-third of the population of Germany.

Calvin burned his friend without blinking an eye.

Therefore, what is the natural order? That is no small matter.

Therefore, there is the "ideal country" of Dashun, which carries the coffin of Liu Yu, who came up with the economic law of natural order, to become the "Pope" to define what is the natural order and whether the state can interfere with grain prices.

Anyway, Dashun does not sell grain. Forget about the natural order, other things will be natural.

Don't let the French learn from the East and the West for a long time, and the French people gradually become "why not eat meat porridge", which will be troublesome.