New Shun 1730
Chapter 1393 Bubble
Of course, because the large East India companies in European countries were forced to death by Dashun, European commercial capital completely lost its technical restrictions and would quickly flow to shipping and comprador business, thus strangling many European industries.
But the core of this principle applies to Europe.
It also applies to Dashun, although the problems faced are different.
With the basic signing of the Treaty of Versailles, Dashun will also face a problem of "capital flow".
In Persia, India, East Africa, these directions, Dashun has exclusive trade rights, and the rate of return on capital has increased rapidly. Especially in the direction of India.
In addition, these places are not like Dashun's homeland, with various restrictions: the most basic one is that the restrictions on Dashun's local big merchants buying and hoarding land are very large, making Dashun's "highest return rate, safest, and most stable" investment, that is, land purchase, a very awkward investment in Dashun, which is forcibly distorted by administrative power.
This also means that Liu Yu must still need some means to make a large amount of financial capital flow to some directions that Liu Yu hopes to go.
Naturally, this direction is immigration to North America.
Liu Yu had thought about it before, and he felt that the experience of the British South Sea Company and the French Mississippi Company was very good.
It was nothing more than that the two companies had some "small" problems, and they deceived too much. In the end, the game of passing the parcel could not be passed on, and the bubble burst.
But from the perspective of raising funds alone, the effect was significant. A huge amount of funds was raised in a short period of time, and the funds were so much that they basically solved the financial hole left by Louis XIV.
And he had said before that the war against Europe would bring a very special social consciousness: if the right direction is found, the return rate of investment in industry and commerce can be higher than buying land; and early entry and early benefit.
Historically, the interest rate in the UK has been reduced from about 10% to 3%; the British have gradually formed the idea that investing in industry and getting stocks is actually similar to buying land and hoarding land... They are not innate, but are gradually suppressed and social existence slowly reverses social consciousness.
Social consciousness lags behind social existence, and Dashun is also slowly changing this situation, but the premise is that there must be this social existence.
Today, the war is basically won.
All previous doubts have vanished, and trade continues to develop, even greatly. With the help of the Treaty of Versailles, Dashun's industry and commerce will usher in a golden age.
This is a matter of material level.
But at the level of consciousness, in places such as Jingji, Songsu, etc., there is a trend of thought of "trusting the judgment of the court, believing that early entry and early investment will bring great returns in the future", and the idea that "stocks and bonds may not be inferior to land".
Those who invested in textiles, shipping, and shipbuilding at the beginning all made a lot of money this time.
It can be said that Dashun has won a very high degree of trust with one victory after another and accurate grasp of "trade" again and again.
For the emperor, it is prestige.
For Liu Yu, it is his "suggestion" on investment. People will think that this is not a suggestion, but telling everyone a way to make a fortune.
It should be said that Liu Yu relies on this prestige and trust, and is ready to learn from the South China Sea Company or the Mississippi Company.
When the Treaty of Versailles was basically finalized and capital was about to flow into India, he used his credibility, the prestige of Dashun, and the investment frenzy created by the realization of industrial and commercial development brought about by the European war to forcibly distort the flow of funds in the market.
In short, if he did not distort.
Then, 30 out of 100 hot money would be invested in local industries; 30 would flow to cotton land in India; and 40 would buy land or store it in cellars.
And now, after his distortion, 30 may be divided and flow to immigrants in North America.
As for whether it will eventually become a South Sea bubble or a Mississippi bubble, it doesn't matter. As long as people arrive and the land is cultivated, it doesn't matter if the game of passing the parcel can't be played in the end, it will explode.
Money will not disappear for no reason.
If it really becomes a bubble and explodes in the future, then before the explosion, the money will flow to "mercury mining", "shipbuilding", "agricultural machinery", "animal husbandry", "navigation" and other directions.
Because this is the pre-investment for reclamation and gold digging in North America.
They are all real industries, not simply stepping on each other. Even if the financing bubble finally bursts, it doesn't matter.
Roughly speaking, the routine is like this:
Through the investment boom created by the First World War, the hot money of Dashun was waiting for the news revealed by the court, because the court's judgment before was correct, and those who believed and got on the train at that time became rich after the First World War.
At this time, Liu Yu threw out the rumor that "Fusang has a large gold mine and at least 10 million taels of gold" - basically, it is a replica of the Mississippi Company's big bluff. At the beginning, John Law relied on this bluff and took the so-called government-endorsed high return rate of more than 10% to directly make a big move of tens of millions of taels of silver.
The difference is that there is no gold in Mississippi.
But there is real gold in San Francisco, Vancouver, Seattle and other places.
Therefore, a Dashun royal franchised franchise company was established. In order to pay tribute to the "predecessors", the company was directly named the Bubble Company.
No dividends within five years.
After five years, a dividend of at least 15% per year is guaranteed, which is a very high rate of return.
The imperial court granted this franchise, which only included the right to mine gold and silver, two minerals.
Similar to the Spanish model, 15% of mining revenue goes to the national treasury, and 5% goes to the internal treasury.
The rest is distributed by the company.
Government supervision and business management, following the story of Songsu, the government supervision formulates policies in the first five years, and the board of directors takes over after five years.
The court will send a governor to manage civil affairs, protect security, etc. The company needs to pay some fees to the court every year to station troops, etc.
Since gold is to be mined, the company needs food, military strongholds, etc.
Then, all the land in North America is completely nationalized, not privately owned, and private individuals are not allowed to enclose land privately.
Therefore, in the early stage, the company needs to invest in immigration, reclamation, military stronghold construction, shipbuilding, etc.
Two purposes.
One is that Dashun issued a batch of national debts for war in the early stage. But the redemption period has not yet arrived. Therefore, if someone wants to hurry up to enter this bubble company for the sake of the super high dividends later, then at this time, they must quickly redeem the national debts for cash.
The price will fall, and the Dashun court took the opportunity to buy back a batch of national debts sold at a low price, which is equivalent to reducing the debt.
Another reason is that the initial investment is huge, which is actually based on the gold and silver in "San Francisco and Old Silver Mountain", which are consumed in advance, and then mined out in the future to repay the current consumption.
And if you wait until the gold and silver are mined before spending, most of them will go home to hoard land, invest in India, lend money at high interest rates, etc.
Before it is mined, raise funds to spend the money, so that the money can be controlled to flow to industries such as immigration, reclamation, agricultural machinery, shipbuilding, and canvas.
Similarly, this money can be used to purchase state-owned land at administratively distorted land prices during the early period of "land prices under administrative distortion".
This means that now 120 acres of land in North America cannot be sold at the price of 3 taels of silver.
But through administrative orders, forcibly distorting prices can ensure that 120 acres of land can be sold at a price of 30 taels.
As the population gradually increases, the industry gradually develops, and the population continues to grow, it is obvious that the price of this land will one day reach 30 taels without administrative distortion.
However, everything is difficult at the beginning. The difficulty lies in how to sell the land when administrative orders must be used to distort the land price in the early stage?
When the population grows, the industry develops, and the demand stabilizes in the future, there will be no need for any means and strategies. 30 taels of silver for 120 acres of land, won’t there be people to grab it?
And Liu Yu solved this difficult beginning by this method.
It is equivalent to the financing of this bubble company to do immigration, which is beneficial for future generations, and spend a "high price" to buy the land of Fusang. This money flows into the "immigration fund" and provides a sum of money for future immigrants.
For example, 5,000 households were immigrated in the early stage, and the land of these 5,000 households was all state-owned land purchased by the bubble company.
As for whether these people should repay the company's immigration tickets and land purchase money, how to repay, what to repay, whether to repay in kind or market-priced grain... etc., these are details that can be discussed slowly.
The key is that the money for the 5,000 immigrants, tickets, initial investment, etc., this large amount of money, is paid by the company.
The company certainly doesn't want to pay.
But it has to pay.
Because this is a monopoly franchise guaranteed by an administrative order, just like Liu Yu's trade with Japan, either do it or don't do it.
If you do it, you have to fulfill the various additional obligations.
If you don't do it, just don't invest in shares.
For example, the company of Dashun's trade with Japan is a partnership between Dashun, Japan, which is closed to the outside world, and the shogunate that is trying to get monopoly profits to guarantee this monopoly.
But if you get this monopoly, don't think about free trade, and honestly fulfill the obligations of shipbuilding, heavy ships, training sailors, registering ships, and wartime conscription.
It's the same here.
Do you want to bypass the company and supervision, privately recruit 40 or 50 people, and go there to mine gold?
It's not impossible, just don't get caught.
If you get caught, you will be hanged, and the gold will belong to the catcher and the informer.
If you want to mine gold "freely", there is no way.
As long as you go to mine gold, you must be within this exclusive monopoly company, that is, you must fulfill these obligations that can be said to be [very heavy].
From the economic perspective of pure capital gains, this is against freedom and inefficient.
Because the most efficient system should be to open up mining. If you have the ability, you can get 40 or 50 people, dig up gold and make a fortune, and the expenses are small.
In this way, the profit rate is the highest, the efficiency is the highest, and there are no messy additional obligations, just go to dig gold.
But the problem is that for Dashun, digging gold is not the goal. Therefore, this kind of efficiency is meaningless.
For Liu Yu, immigration is the goal, and digging gold is just a means to promote this immigration.
Then, we must be clear about what this "efficiency" is.
Is it efficient mining of gold?
Or efficient immigration?
In fact, Liu Yu is still a compromise choice.
It is neither the most efficient gold mining nor the most efficient immigration in theory.
In theory, the most efficient gold mining is to announce whoever digs it will own it, and the capital will hire people to dig it. That is absolutely the most efficient.
In theory, the most efficient immigration is the radical practical school's increase in centralization, boosting treasury revenue, equalizing land and eliminating middlemen, and using immigration as a national policy like building the Great Wall and the Grand Canal, crazy migration, military farming, and the Wei Suo system.
Liu Yu's current compromise is just a relatively balanced and feasible choice under the existing conditions, including technology, supervision, administrative efficiency, transportation level and other restrictions.
Social reality determines that it is impossible to follow the theory completely.
Even if we learn to make money by the propaganda and deception of the South Sea Company and the Mississippi Company, or if this "bubble" can be blown up, it depends on the existing social reality. The two big bubbles of the South Sea and the Mississippi can be blown up, provided that the various monopoly companies before can really make money, and the return rate is high. Without the previous messy monopoly companies as a foreshadowing, this bubble would not be blown up at all. Even if a lot of hot money in Europe in the past 20 years has been invested blindly and has nowhere to go, if there is no social awareness shaped by the previous foreshadowing, there will be no bubble of investment in monopoly companies, but it may be in the form of tulips.
Dashun is also learning about bubbles, and its foundation is the high return rate of monopoly companies in the past 20 to 30 years as a foreshadowing, so that the bubble can be blown up. Whether it explodes or not is another matter.
The most efficient way of immigration in theory for the radicals of practical learning lacked such social foundation, social consciousness, and preparation. The countryside was far from being exhausted, even the children of landlords could not make ends meet, the landlords' workshops were generally bankrupt, and the countryside with heavy taxes and wars was completely collapsed, and reform was necessary.
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