New Shun 1730

Because Count Aranda had brains, the direction of the negotiations between him and Dashun was not focused on the issues of Luzon and Gibraltar.

People with brains know that the Luzon issue is not an issue that can be discussed.

The premise of the discussion is that both sides have to pay a heavy enough price for it before there is a possibility of compromise and negotiation.

Does a lion need to negotiate with a puppy? To negotiate who gets a piece of meat?

No need.

Only a dog and a wolf can negotiate.

But now, this premise does not exist. It is not that Spain is so weak that it can fight casually, but even if Dashun builds a colony 40,000 miles away, it cannot deploy too many troops. This is originally an accidental problem left over from history. It should not be like this at all. Maintaining this accidental situation is not right, and the cost is very high.

So the Luzon issue only depends on whether Dashun wants to take it back.

Spain cannot cause Dashun to pay a heavy enough price.

It really cannot be created, whether it is economic, trade, military, or religious, there is no threat. The current defense of Manila can be broken down by Dashun with only three battleships and two battalions of soldiers. Even...if the court is willing, this is simply a local issue of the Nanyang Protectorate.

So there is no need to talk about it.

The direction he talked about was mainly trade issues.

Count Aranda could see the crisis Spain is facing now, just like the idea of ​​the Spanish Federation he would propose in the future. In the economic field, he hopes to carry out an economic reform in Spain.

In his words, it is called "free trade zone within the empire".

That is, free trade is allowed between the various Spanish colonies in the Americas, so as to form a self-sufficient internal trade system with a large population and resources.

The significance of the existence of this internal trade system is to "fight against British smugglers and weaken the influence of foreign smugglers through free trade licenses within the empire."

And to consolidate the connection between the core area of ​​the empire and the colonies.

This idea is definitely problematic.

The root of this problem is that Spain's domestic production capacity is insufficient and cannot provide enough goods for the colonies.

And what can the colonies produce?

Wool, cattle, sugar, silver, mercury, minerals, grain, cocoa... nothing else works.

Spain's handicraft industry was destroyed by the massive amount of silver Spain obtained from the Americas. The price revolution made Spain's handicraft industry unable to compete with Britain and the Netherlands, after all, it was the country that issued the currency.

Which world-wide currency-issuing country has a trade surplus? Which world-wide currency-issuing country's labor costs are not lower than those of countries that lack currency?

To a certain extent, there is a saying that "British smugglers delayed the time for local forces in South America to rebel against their mother country."

Because the large amount of goods obtained by British smugglers were sold through local forces. And the local people, because they were able to get enough high-quality and daily necessities, made the consciousness of rebellion less strong.

Count Aranda's free trade is limited.

It is free trade within the empire.

Or, it is better to call it the "Spanish Free Trade Zone Plan."

Now, in the whole world, except for Dashun, which hopes to engage in global free trade, the rest of the world, whether it is Spain, France, or the United Kingdom, which will be added soon, all hope to establish this "imperial free trade zone" model.

Let's not talk about Dashun, or what Liu Yu and his group of people who support the world market think. After all, they are definitely opposed. They, including Dashun's new school, and the middle class produced in Songsu area under the trend of the times, are all beneficiaries of globalization and the world market. They don't want to establish a vassal free trade zone, otherwise they will go to India and close the door of Malacca.

Just talking about Spain, Count Aranda believes that this cooperation with Dashun is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Many previous problems can now be completely solved.

For example, the big problem of insufficient production capacity in Spain... Indeed, Spain's insufficient production capacity is sufficient!

This one in front of my eyes is sufficient, very sufficient, very sufficient.

Everything that the Latin American colonies want can be satisfied by this one - cotton, silk, wood, spoons, iron, clothes, tools, needles and thread, pants and shirts.

Even, if necessary, even the Bible can be printed. Many European porcelains are customized, and any pattern can be customized. Of course, if you want to print the Bible, you can get a letter printing machine, and it will definitely be very cheap.

Since we are talking about reform, we must first determine one thing, that is, what is the cause of the problem in Latin America?

At this time, it is naturally because of the ownership of large landowners and large estates, the church, and the late medieval feudal system in 1492.

Can this problem be solved?

Yes, there will be a French-style revolution to overthrow the old culture.

But obviously this is impossible.

Then, we must first determine one thing, what is the purpose of Count Aranda's reform when the root cause cannot be cured?

Reform, not reform for the sake of reform.

In short, the purpose of the reform of the "Spanish Federal Free Trade Zone" by Count Aranda is roughly three things.

First: to disgust Britain and retaliate against Britain's smuggling problem in the South Sea Company after the War of Jenkins' Ear and the previous War of Succession.

Second: De-Americanize America, strengthen the influence and power of centralization and local bureaucrats in America, and reduce the influence of native white people in America, that is, Creoles, that is, local gentry. Intermediate officials must be appointed by the central government, and the Spanish Kingdom, the central government, which is the main body of the empire, must control the economic lifeline and trade goods.

Third: Fill the treasury.

The first two items are easy to understand.

Revenge on the British, this is not necessary to mention. The tax evasion problem of the South Sea Company and the humiliation of Spain in the Jenkins Ear incident have long made Spain dissatisfied.

De-Americanize America... Grasp two points, the appointment of intermediate officials must come from the core of the empire, and trade is controlled by the core of the empire.

Without the control over the trade of daily necessities, local factions will become more powerful and will not even care about the core of the empire. This is a basic principle that applies everywhere - including Dashun. The premise of the reform of Songsu is that the Dashun navy can cut off Songsu's coal, iron, grain, and export channels at any time; the premise of Dashun's going to Nanyang, conquering India, and rebuilding the Daduhufu is that the Nanyang Hufu has no navy, and trade is completely tied to the core area of ​​Dashun.

Spain's set of things is not to say that it will not work, but with the population and productivity level, the number of trade goods, and the level of handicrafts like Dashun, it will not only work, but also work very well.

If the market in Latin America can force Dashun to the point of insufficient goods at this time, why would Dashun build a navy to look for markets everywhere and destroy India's handicrafts?

As for the third point...

At this time, trade control has only two purposes.

Either to protect domestic industries, such as the cotton cloth ban in Britain and France and the illegal sugarcane wine ban in France.

Or, increase the treasury revenue, such as the high tea tax, honey tax, and monopoly East India Company in the UK.

What domestic industries does Spain have that need to be protected?

This... Actually, basically none.

With the price revolution he triggered, Spain can only go down the path of raw material export similar to the re-serfdom of Eastern Europe, such as raising sheep and selling wool.

Generally speaking, the resource export industry and agricultural export industry of the issuing country will be very strong.

Then, the remaining option is to increase the treasury.

In fact, moving the church's real estate, limiting the number of monks, levying church land tax, controlling tithes, etc., are actually increasing the treasury revenue.

The court has no money and can do nothing.

In theory, Spain is not short of precious metals. It really has mountains of gold and silver at home, and they are real mountains of gold and silver.

These days, gold and silver mines are big printing presses. You can't refuse to obey. They are truly universal currencies in the world. From Japan to St. Petersburg, from Buenos Aires to Gothenburg, there is no situation where other countries do not recognize gold and silver.

However, how to turn these precious metals into the treasury requires thinking.

Spain's previous method was to control the trade of necessities, such as mercury. Raise the price of mercury. You have to use mercury to refine gold and silver. If I have a mercury monopoly, can I get the precious metals?

Another way is to monopolize daily trade goods.

Originally, it was definitely not possible because Spain did not have this ability.

But now, of course it is possible.

Because there is a country that is less affected by the price revolution, has extremely low labor costs and extremely high productivity, which can provide Spain with all the needs of monopolizing the trade of daily necessities.

That is: the Spanish government can carry out official trade with Dashun.

Spain organized a royal fleet to go directly to the Songsu area to purchase all the necessary commodities needed by the Latin American colonies.

Exchange with silver, gold, or dyes such as carmine produced in Latin America that Dashun urgently needs.

Even... In fact, at this time, Count Aranda did not know that the Spanish colonies had something that Dashun urgently needed and whose consumption would surge in the future, fertilizers.

Dashun did not have a huge demand for saltpeter for military purposes. Bengal had enough. It was better to use it as fertilizer.

Relying on the low price of Dashun industrial products to meet the daily needs of the colonies, so as to ensure that the people in the colonies would not rebel.

At the same time, through another form of monopoly on colonial trade - Dashun's cotton cloth, since it could enter Britain despite the ultra-high tariffs of Britain, it meant that at least in the textile sector, Dashun's textiles plus Spain's monopoly profits could still defeat European smugglers.

And, because Dashun was aggressive after going to Southeast Asia in recent years, once the First World War was over, Europe would completely lose its dominance in East-West trade.

The Danish East India Company was already half dead, and was basically bankrupted by Dashun's increase in tariffs.

The French East India Company even lost India.

The Swedish East India Company had long been reorganized.

The Dutch East India Company cooperated with Dashun.

Portugal's foothold in Macau was gone. Once it reached cooperation with Dashun, the last East Timor would also be lost.

The Prussian ship Apollo, whose trade volume was purely for atmosphere, can be ignored.

Spain, which still owned Luzon, was the only European country that could take the Pacific route to the American colonies.

Since the safety of Luzon was completely dependent on the will of Dashun, Count Aranda hoped to promote trade cooperation between the two countries.

That is: Manila would be used as a transit point for Spanish trade goods to the American colonies. Trade between China and the West was held in Manila.

Every year, Dashun would send goods to Manila and take away silver and gold from Manila. Spain would transport goods from Manila to the American colonies.

At the same time, in Europe, Spain could also follow the Zhangzhou Yuegang model - in fact, Cadiz has always been this model, and only ships from Cadiz can go to the colonies - in Cadiz, trade with Dashun would be completed, and then the royal family's monopoly of the sailing fleet would go to Latin America for trade.

In this way, for Dashun, Manila would become an important place to obtain precious metals, making Manila safer.

Spain estimated that Dashun should certainly know that there were no mountains of gold and silver in Manila, and that silver was actually produced elsewhere. They had already sailed their warships to Menorca, so it was impossible for them not to know this.

Since it is said that the Russian government can monopolize the trade in tea, rhubarb and silk; the British government can monopolize the trade in tea and sugar. Then, the Spanish government can completely monopolize the trade goods in Latin America.

Moreover, there is another situation that is very favorable to Spain. It seems that the trade model of Dashun, such as the Western Trade Company, is also a monopoly company supervised by the government. Dashun does not have free trade in the true sense, where private individuals can go out to sea at will.

Therefore, as it seems now, Spain can reach an official agreement with Dashun.

As long as the officials of Dashun have face and do not send fleets to smuggle, then this agreement is feasible and can greatly reduce the cost of anti-smuggling, strengthen the speed of de-Americanization, strengthen control over the Americas, and increase the revenue of the treasury.

The productivity of Dashun can make up for the shortcomings of Spain; the monopoly trade company supervised by Dashun can reach a credible bilateral treaty - anyone with a discerning eye can see the difference between Dashun Western Trade Company and the Dutch East India Company and the British East India Company.

The Dutch East India Company regarded the Dutch Provincial Parliament as a fart, at least when it was not bankrupt.

The British East India Company directly bought out the shares of the parallel East India Company established by the government and took control. The South Sea Company treated the Anglo-Spanish Treaty as a fart, and incited public opinion to directly start the Jenkins Ear War.

No matter how powerful the Western Trade Company of Dashun was, it was not so arrogant. Not to mention that it directly treated the central court as a fart, even the governor of Songsu would not have gone to the point of seeking an audience with the company's major shareholders.

Even the miniature version of the absolute monarchy of France could do the extent that Paris had to issue orders to directly send the Governor of India home, let alone Dashun.

Therefore, Count Adarlan certainly believed that he could reach an official treaty with Dashun.

Because Dashun could not have violated the treaty between the two countries and not only was it not punished, but also forced the government to go to war with the South Sea Company and the East India Company - including the East India Company. In history, the Qing Dynasty issued a clear ban on opium in the seventh year of Yongzheng. The East India Company clearly stated that it would not sell opium to China. This was written in black and white, and it was also the basis for it to continue to trade in tea and raw silk, but he still violated the contract.

This is certainly not the first time, but it has always been the case. Therefore, Spain does not trust such private companies very much, especially after being disgusted by the Nanhai Company's "500 tons of trade volume turned into 50,000 tons of smuggling, and refused to pay the slave trade head tax and went to war".

Spain can trust the French government's commitment to trade, can trust Dashun's commitment to trade, can trust Prussia, trust Russia, and trust Austria, but will never trust the Netherlands and Britain, because of this:

Because the Anglo-Dutch model really can't control large private companies, and trade treaties are bullshit.

And these monarchical countries have a good example to prove that they keep their words - Austria really dissolved the Ostend Company, really fulfilled and proved that it was able to fulfill the original exchange of interests in the "Basic Law of Succession".

As for what to do if Dashun tears up the treaty in the future? That is not something to consider, because if Dashun really tears up the treaty, Luzon will be gone, and smuggling in South America will be even more unpreventable. So what's the point of considering this "what if it is torn up in the future" now?

Therefore, Spain can join the war and open the Isthmus of Gibraltar to Dashun as a base for launching an attack. But the prerequisite is to reach an agreement on trade issues.

No discussion of Luzon or Gibraltar, only trade.

In other words, Spain does not accept Dashun's Gibraltar or Cadiz concession as hostages, but only accepts Cadiz and Manila trade cooperation plans.