Rebirth 2006, creating a super consortium

After walking slowly to the podium, An Xin reached out and took the microphone from the host. After politely thanking him in a low voice, he turned around and looked at the crowd of participants who were whispering to each other below the stage. Then he turned on the microphone and said slowly:

"Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. My name is An Xin. I'm from China and I'm currently running an Internet company in China!"

“I am very grateful to the organizers of the summit for inviting me to this stage and giving me the opportunity to talk about my ideas with you all!”

"Of course, I know that almost all the participants don't know a nobody like me, and are not interested in my so-called personal thoughts!"

"But it doesn't matter. In the next half hour, I will make sure everyone remember the name An Xin forever!"

My goodness! As soon as these words came out, the participants who were originally whispering to each other in the audience immediately stopped their chats and looked up at the guy on the stage who had a very loud tone.

After feeling the hundreds of inquiring eyes from the audience, An Xin was not nervous at all. Instead, the corners of her mouth slightly raised. She even made a little joke in an unusually calm manner: "Haha, it seems that my little trick was quite successful. At least it successfully attracted everyone's attention!"

"OK, let's get back to the topic!"

"My speech title may be a little special. I specifically gave it a theme name that sounds very exaggerated!"

“The impending financial crisis!”

"Yes, this is the topic of my speech today!"

The audience was still silent, without the uproar and noise as imagined.

In fact, this is normal. After all, the participants are either senior politicians or business elites. These people are knowledgeable and experienced. It is undoubtedly a pipe dream to expect them to take action based on the name of a theme alone without very solid evidence.

Of course, the main reason is that the signs of the subprime mortgage crisis have already emerged. Although it has not yet been directly transmitted to various industries, there must be some smart people who have vaguely sensed that something is wrong!

An Xin did not pay attention to the unusually calm mood in the audience. After sorting out her thoughts, she continued, "Unlike Mr. Fuld's optimism, I am deeply worried about the future global economy, especially the US real estate-related bond market that Mr. Fuld just strongly recommended. I think that will be the trigger point for a new round of financial crisis!"

“Frankly speaking, I think that whether it is the real estate enterprise bond market, the end-user mortgage bond market, or even the related derivatives market, there are bubbles that are enough to trigger a financial crisis!”

"Of course, words are not enough. In order to prove the correctness of this statement, I have specially prepared some very interesting data for you. Please take a look at the big screen!"

As soon as he finished speaking, a picture of the U.S. real estate size data, U.S. real estate financing size data, and U.S. real estate bond size data that An Xin had prepared long ago suddenly appeared on the large electronic screen at the podium.

After seeing this extremely detailed data chart, the expressions on the faces of some knowledgeable financial professionals suddenly became serious.

Although those participants who are not from the financial industry seem a little confused, it does not stop them from asking people around them who may know about the subject.

All of a sudden, the originally very quiet conference hall became extremely noisy.

It seems that everyone is not stupid!

After watching the situation in the audience with interest for a while, An Xin coughed twice to attract everyone's attention, and then said with a smile: "I believe that friends who can understand this picture have already gained some insights, but to be honest, this picture only shows the scale of the current bubble from the perspective of total data!"

"Next, I will show you some more intuitive data. Come on, please continue to look at the big screen!"

The big screen on the stage flashed instantly, and everyone saw a very interesting set of data:

Subprime mortgage market size: $1.7 trillion!

The size of the U.S. mortgage market: $7 trillion!

"Compared to the $7 trillion U.S. mortgage market, the $1.7 trillion in the subprime market doesn't seem so outrageous, right?"

An Xin smiled slightly, pointed at the data on the big screen, and said leisurely: "But if I say that this is just the basic capacity data of the subprime market, and it actually does not include the data after the leverage added by the intermediary institutions, what will you think?"

“In fact, after the additional leverage of Wall Street institutions, the subprime derivatives market has reached a scale of 8 trillion US dollars!”

The big screen changed and a set of numbers 8000000000000 appeared instantly, which looked dazzling!

"Yes, you read that right!"

"After the strong combination of rating agencies and Wall Street institutions, they have used securitization leverage to expand the subprime derivatives market to a scale of 8 trillion US dollars. This has also allowed the subprime derivatives market to successfully surpass the entire US mortgage market and directly become the most valuable trading market in the United States!"

"Oh, no, it should be the world's most valuable trading market!"

"Okay, now that I have finished talking about this, I will tell you how Wall Street institutions operate subprime derivative projects. Please continue to watch the big screen!"

【Rating-Classification-Mix-match-Packaging-Listing-Trading】

An Xin pointed at the content displayed on the big screen and said slowly: "This is the simplified operation steps of those Wall Street institutions!"

"To put it simply, Wall Street institutions directly divided the $1.7 trillion of rated subprime contracts into multi-level bond packages. After very detailed asset mix ratings, these institutions directly packaged the original B-level or even C-level inferior subprime bond asset packages into A-level, AA-level, and even AAA-level high-quality subprime asset packages. Then, they pushed these carefully packaged high-quality subprime asset packages onto trading desks at all levels of the market for all investors to participate in the transactions!"

"Well, I guess many people here must have a lot of subprime asset packages that seem to have very high ratings in their investment accounts!" An Xin looked at the audience with a smile on her face and said in a gentle tone: "But unfortunately, what you hold are a bunch of absolute junk asset packages, and they are the kind of junk asset packages that will quickly become worthless in a short period of time!"

"After all, the $1.7 trillion subprime mortgage market has quietly expanded to $8 trillion. Something must be happening!"

"I guess some friends will be curious, what will happen?"

“The answer is very simple!”

"With just a slight poke, this bubble-filled subprime derivatives market will burst, and a financial crisis will come in an instant, sweeping the world and beginning to deeply affect all walks of life!"

"Wow..."

As soon as these words were spoken, the audience instantly became a mess, and all kinds of questions came one after another!

"Mr. An, what about the authenticity of the data?"

"Mr. An, how can I ensure that my property is not damaged?"

"Mr. An, when will the crisis break out?"

"That's impossible. As independent third parties, why would those authoritative rating agencies approve the ratings of subprime mortgage derivatives?"

"It's fake, all fake. He is trying to deceive people. Please don't..."

After seeing the scene gradually becoming extremely chaotic, An Xin quickly began to maintain the situation: "Quiet, quiet, quiet..."

After a short period of maintenance, the scene gradually became quiet.

An Xin adjusted her mood a little, and then faced hundreds of gazes with various emotions, and spoke again: "I know you may have a lot of questions to ask, but unfortunately, due to time constraints, I can't answer all the questions, so I'm going to pick three questions to answer!"

“The first question is, how to ensure the authenticity of the data?”

"The real estate-related data and subprime-related data I just listed were all released by major Wall Street institutions. There is no doubt about their authenticity!"

"Of course, I need to emphasize that the data source for the $8 trillion subprime bond derivatives market is not from major Wall Street institutions, but from a little-known fund company that obtained the data after a large number of actual inspections and super-large data model analysis. As for whether their data is credible, it is entirely up to everyone to judge for themselves. I will not interfere, but I personally undoubtedly believe in this data!"

“The second question is, when will the financial crisis break out?”

"I'm sorry, I can't give you a very accurate time of the outbreak, but I personally think the probability of an outbreak within a year is very high!"

“The third question is, why did the rating agencies approve the ratings of subprime mortgage derivatives?”

"Well, that's a good question!" An Xin grinned and replied with a smile: "Let me first state a basic fact. There is no truly independent third party in the financial industry. All institutions have their own core interests, and rating agencies are naturally no exception!"

"Since these rating agencies dared to cooperate with Wall Street institutions to massively increase the ratings of subprime mortgage derivatives, it was naturally because of the strong support of the bigwigs behind them. Moreover, such a big move is obviously not something that can be pushed by one or two bigwigs. At the very least, it must be a collective will. As for this collective..."

"Mr. An, you are crossing the line!"

Before An Xin could finish her words, she was interrupted by a warning from the audience.

An Xin looked over when he heard the voice, and when he saw clearly who was speaking, his eyes suddenly narrowed, and the expression on his face seemed extremely surprised and shocked!

It's him? !

...