Rebirth in 1985

Chapter 2 Financial Storm ()

Lu Shaohua knew the direction of the Asian financial crisis, so he naturally knew how many days this volatility would last, and he also knew when was the best time to take action. Now asking Li Yunqing was just to test his judgment.

Some time ago, Lu Shaohua had already handed the data of this fluctuation to Li Yunqing. Li Yunqing knew what the bottom line was, but Lu Shaohua did not mark the date in the data file at that time. Therefore, Lu Shaohua could only consider Li Yunqing at this time.

Li Yunqing did not rush to answer, but pondered for a while before saying, "I think this time is a little different from the one in Thailand. This time the decline came too suddenly. The Indonesian rupiah began to fall on the 26th. Today, the decline is too large. I am afraid it will not last too long. According to my and Mingzhang's estimates, this decline will last until October 10th at most, and then it will slowly subside. The decline will not be too fast, and it is likely to remain stable and will not continue to fall."

Whether it is the stock market or currency, sometimes they fall too much, and there are only two possibilities in the end: one is a sharp rebound, and the other is to remain stable, neither rising nor falling, and always maintain that number. Li Yunqing's guess is to remain stable, that is, neither rising nor falling, and always maintain that number, that ratio.

"So you mean we can sell out on October 10th?" Lu Shaohua nodded and asked with a smile on his face.

"Yes, and no." Li Yunqing nodded, shook his head, and then continued, "I think it is necessary to clear the warehouse, because we basically won't make any money next time, and if we don't clear the warehouse, it will be dangerous. But when I say clear the warehouse, I mean the currency. As for the stock market, there is still a lot of room for speculation, and the decline should not be too small. I think we need to continue and make more money."

Lu Shaohua smiled. Yes, Lu Shaohua did smile, and he smiled happily. He was very satisfied with the answer given by Li Yunqing. "Your guess is almost the same as mine. This storm will not last too long. It should come to an end on October 10rd."

After finishing speaking, Lu Shaohua paused and glanced at Li Yunqing. Seeing that the latter did not react much, but listened attentively, Lu Shaohua continued. "Of course, as mentioned, the currency can be sold, but there is no need to withdraw the stock market at this time. The stock markets of various countries do have a lot of room for speculation, and we must guard it. However, it may be a bit late to clear the currency on October 10. In my opinion, it is best to clear the position in the afternoon of October 4 or when the market opens on October 10."

Lu Shaohua heard a meaning from Li Yunqing's words, that is, the positions should be cleared on October 10, but the day is divided into two stages. When Li Yunqing said this, he meant the time to clear the positions before the closing of the market on the afternoon of October 4, not the time to clear the positions at the opening of the market on the morning of October 10, because if the positions were to be cleared at the opening of the market in the morning, Li Yunqing would have specifically said it.

Lu Shaohua also understood what Li Yunqing meant, and based on the situations in his memory, he put them together and decided to clear all positions before the closing of the market on the afternoon of October 10, or as soon as the market opened on the morning of October 3.

There are two time periods, one represents impatience and the other represents risk. Let's talk about impatience. According to my memory, this wave of turbulence will end on October 10. At the close of the market, the closing points are very low. It seems that there is still a lot of room for decline. Selling at this time is obviously a bit impatient.

There is another aspect that shows impatience, and that is the morning of October 10. According to the memory of the previous life, the market will still fall when it opens on the morning of October 4, but the decline will be very small, only 10 percentage point.

With such a drop in the market, if you clear your positions at this time, the risk will be very high. This also represents the time of risk. At this point, risk and impatience coexist. If you sell early, you may earn less money. If you sell late, you will have to bear certain risks.

"You mean to clear out the currency position on October 10rd, which is the day after tomorrow?" Li Yunqing frowned and asked.

"Yeah." Lu Shaohua nodded, and couldn't help sighing. "I'm too timid and can't take the risk. If the market remains stable on October 10, it will be difficult to clear the warehouse by then. Why not be safe? Anyway, we have already made a lot of money. Even if the market continues to fall, the loss will not be too big. It's just a small amount of money. We don't have to take a big risk for a small amount of money."

Is Lu Shaohua timid? No, if Lu Shaohua was timid, he would not have allocated 200 billion US dollars to fight the Asian financial crisis. You have to know that it was 200 billion US dollars, not 2,000 yuan.

Participating in the financial crisis itself is very dangerous. If there is a slight discrepancy in time, it will lead to a passive situation and unable to extricate oneself. However, Lu Shaohua resolutely transferred 200 billion US dollars, which was a risk. From this point of view, it can be seen that Lu Shaohua is extremely courageous.

There is one more thing, which is not about Thailand. Starting from July 7, Thailand has experienced a big explosion. Both the Thai baht and the Thai stock market have been falling. If Lu Shaohua was timid, he would have liquidated his positions after a wave of plunges. However, Lu Shaohua did not do so. He waited until September 2 to order the liquidation. Everyone knows how much risk he took in the process. It also proves once again that Lu Shaohua is extremely timid.

But Lu Shaohua is not timid, so why should we say he is timid?

This question should be asked to Lu Shaohua himself. In fact, Lu Shaohua's timidity is just an excuse. Who can blame him for not having the data of October 10 in his memory? In other words, he did not know the situation after October 4, so he resolutely chose to clear out the currency position on October 10.

“Then let’s unify the time for currency. Sell out all positions before the market closes on the afternoon of October 10rd.” Li Yunqing nodded and said seriously.

On the surface, Lu Shaohua seems to be not interfering in matters here, and Li Yunqing has full authority to handle them. However, Lu Shaohua is the real boss of the Phoenix Group after all, and his words still have to be listened to. Even if he says he will not interfere, an order is still an order, and Li Yunqing and the others can only obey unconditionally. This is also what every employee of the Phoenix Group must do.

"No!" Lu Shaohua shook his head and corrected. "You can't sell everything. Singapore must be excluded. It's best to sell all of the Singapore stocks before the close of the morning of October 10. Yes, all of them, including the Singapore stock market. You should also sell all of them. There's no need to stay."

It has to be said that Singapore does have some strength. Although the financial crisis has been going on for almost three months, Singapore has not been greatly affected until the second wave of attacks broke out, when it began to decline. However, as far as Lu Shaohua knows, Singapore's situation has rebounded rapidly since October 10. If it does not withdraw quickly, the final result will probably be very tragic.

"Okay, I will arrange the staff." Li Yunqing responded seriously.

"Yeah." Lu Shaohua responded, then changed the subject and asked, "As for the stock market, what do you think is the most appropriate way to clear your positions?"

If he wanted to take the test, Lu Shaohua would just go for it and test both currency and stock market at the same time to test Li Yunqing's judgment ability.

In the currency sector, Li Yunqing made a very good judgment. The time for shipment was only one day away. Although it was a crucial day, it was very good to be able to make such a judgment. It showed that his judgment was very strong. However, his judgment on the currency sector was accurate, so what about the stock market?

"I think it can be delayed until the beginning of November." Li Yunqing said it without even thinking.

Li Yunqing's behavior does not mean that he did not consider it. On the contrary, Li Yunqing came to the result after serious consideration. The reason why he answered without thinking at this moment was that Li Yunqing had already started analyzing as early as after the second wave of attacks broke out, and the liquidation at the beginning of November was the result after analysis.

"Why?" Lu Shaohua asked.

"The stock market is not like currency. Now the stock market has been affected and has fallen. It may be easier to save the currency, but the stock market is different. If you want to save it, you need to invest a lot of money to improve the overall situation before it can recover. Another crucial factor is the economic situation of a country. The economic situation of Asian countries is in a mess now. How can it recover so quickly?" Li Yunqing paused for a few seconds before continuing. "What's more important is Hong Kong. Hong Kong is recognized as a top financial city. If Hong Kong is attacked and falls, it will definitely have a chain reaction. It will definitely affect the stock market situation of various countries. So, I think it should continue to fall, and it may not recover until November."

Li Yunqing's words were very certain, showing that he was very confident in his guess.

Lu Shaohua did not speak, but nodded in agreement with Li Yunqing's analysis. It was certain that the situation in Hong Kong would affect the surrounding countries. It was now certain that Soros and others would attack Hong Kong, so it was reasonable that the stock markets in the surrounding countries would continue to fall.

"The stock market can continue to be maintained. My guess is that we can make a move in November, but we have to wait and see how the situation continues to develop. It is not certain yet. You can do whatever you want when the time comes. Maybe I will notify you to clear your position." Lu Shaohua gave Li Yunqing an uncertain answer, paused, changed the subject, and then asked, "How is the layout in Taiwan going?"

Taiwan is the target of the third wave of attacks, and the decline is also large. Lu Shaohua must of course pay attention to the situation of the second layout. This is profitable, and Lu Shaohua cannot just sit back and do nothing.