Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"Looking at the market sentiment feedback after the market, tomorrow's market trend will be difficult again." After analyzing the data of the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities and observing the sentiment of retail investors on various stock investment discussion platforms across the Internet, Zhao Zhiyuan, a member of the main hot money group of the 'Qilu Gang', frowned and said, "There is no obvious good news, and the voices of bullishness from various institutional groups have also weakened... It seems that everyone lacks confidence in the current position of the market, and everyone's willingness to buy chips and go long is not strong!"

"Today's market trend has a serious loss effect. It is not surprising that the post-market sentiment is so positive." Zhang Wei took over and said, "As for the news, if we talk about the 'big infrastructure' line... there is still a lot of news in the real estate market, but when the mood is pessimistic, the good news is easy to be ignored, while the bad news is easy to be magnified.

As for wanting the regulators to release favorable policies, this is basically unrealistic.

After the national team rescued the market last year...

It seems that the regulators have also realized that blindly introducing favorable policies and blindly supporting the market will not solve the fundamental problems of the market or reverse the market trend.

As long as there is no systemic financial risk, the regulators now basically have the mentality of a bystander.

In fact, I think this is pretty good.

The market has its own adjustment capabilities and trend development logic. Human intervention can easily prolong the market's adjustment time and disrupt the market's chip structure."

"In the long run, it is good for regulators to keep a bystander mentality and intervene less," Zhao Zhiyuan said. "But in the short term, there is no obvious positive stimulus, and the regulators do not protect the market at all. Investors inside and outside the market have no corresponding expectations for market conditions and lack investment confidence. In addition, the market itself is stimulated by the loss effect... If this continues, the buying in the market will only become more and more exhausted, and the ecology will become worse and worse."

"With the market trend like this, it's useless even if we stimulate it." Zhang Wei said, "The core theme of 'big infrastructure' has been squeezed out for two consecutive weeks, which has created a profit effect, right? But what is the result? How long has it been adjusted? Hasn't the market volume fallen back again?

Once a bear market pattern is formed, it is difficult to change.

After the end of the last bull market and several rounds of stock market crashes, the amount of trapped shares in the market was at least tens of trillions of dollars.

The "national team" cannot solve such a huge amount of trapped chips, and the incremental capital group outside the market cannot continue to release this part of the trapped chips.

At the same time, the central bank is now tightening liquidity.

There is not enough funds outside the market to release the trapped positions in the market.

What can be done then?

We can only wait for these trapped shares in the market to gradually cut their losses. Over a long period of time, through repeated weak rebounds, sharp declines and negative trends, these trapped shares in the market will cut their losses and stop losses, thereby reducing the pressure on the trapped shares in the market.

It is obvious that only one year has passed since the end of the last bull market.

It has only been more than half a year since the third round of stock market crash.

Based on the past rounds of bull and bear cycles, this amount of time is not enough to digest the huge amount of trapped shares in the market.

In other words, during this period of time, when the market itself is in a bear market adjustment period, even if the regulators continue to introduce favorable policies, it will not change anything.

Under the pressure of layers of trapped shares, the only possibility for the market at this stage is a rebound.

There is no trend reversal at all.

Since in the big trend cycle, the market has only rebounded and there is no sustained trend reversal, our expectations should not be too high. Moreover, it is easy to understand that the market is like this today, with a rebound and a rapid sell-off the next day, and insufficient buying in the market.

In my opinion, today's market trend is normal.

Fortunately, we reduced our positions, took profits and stopped losses in time, and did not lose anything.

I have said it before, in the current bear market, when we are trading, we still have to stick to the principle of taking a bite and leaving, and never hold on to the pattern.

In a bear market, the slightest change in the pattern or the slightest expectation of the market will instantly cause your profits to fall back."

"Even if the regulators introduce favorable policies, it is difficult to change the market trend, but such a bad trend and such a weak market performance are still somewhat below expectations." Zhao Zhiyuan said, "Moreover, the underlying logic of the 'big infrastructure' line is not bad. There are expectations and performance potential. Moreover, this core line has not risen much from the bottom, right? Not to mention the synchronization of house price increases in major offline cities, it has not even reflected one-third of the increase in house prices in major offline cities."

"The 'big infrastructure' line, especially the underlying logic and future expectations of the core stocks in the real estate industry chain, are really good." Liang Jiucheng heard the two people's discussion and couldn't help but interrupt at this time, "Regarding the expected research of the entire real estate industry chain, the future performance explosion ability of the corresponding core stocks, valuation... and other core things, institutions have already studied them clearly.

However, the market is in a bear market phase and the liquidity in the market is extremely poor, even for blue chip stocks.

It is also difficult to generate a valuation premium.

In fact, look at the recent trend of the core theme of "big infrastructure".

Although the overall main line is a downward adjustment trend, the Dragon and Tiger List data released daily shows that basic institutions are in a net buying trend.

This shows that it is not that the underlying logic of the "big infrastructure" line has not been recognized by the big capital groups in the market.

It is because the overall market environment is really bad. Moreover, when the "big infrastructure" line reaches this position, it also touches the core area of ​​the previous historical trapped positions.

Many of the trapped shares in the past are at this position, and there is a strong desire to sell and stop losses.

There is less buying in the market as a whole, coupled with the continued suppression of stop losses on trapped positions.

It is normal that the market is unable to move forward and the overall trend of the "big infrastructure" main line is not as good as expected.

However, pessimism at this moment does not mean pessimism about future market trends. On the contrary... I think being a little pessimistic here will allow the core theme of "big infrastructure" to dig deeper into the pit of clearing trapped shares and stop-loss shares during the adjustment phase, which will most likely be more conducive to the outbreak of subsequent market trends.

The so-called quantitative change leads to qualitative change.

Do not allow the heavy trapped shares with a strong desire to stop loss to be smashed out at this position, so that the internal chip structure can stabilize and settle down again.

Even if the market liquidity is slightly better, the market can be forced up at this point.

Well, with the heavy trapped positions plus the short-term profit taking, it is obvious that the market will not go far.

Now... I am more optimistic about the subsequent market trend, but in the current adjustment stage, due to the pessimistic mood, I must control my hands and not buy too much too early and put myself in a passive situation. "

"Old Liang is right." After listening to Liang Jiucheng's analysis, Zhang Wei agreed and said, "Indeed, the current pessimism is to better clear out the locked-in chips in the market and establish a more stable support platform. Of course... no matter how the subsequent 'big infrastructure' line goes, the overall bear market pattern of the market is still difficult to change. In addition to the 'big infrastructure' line, the housing prices in major offline cities have skyrocketed, and the fundamentals of the hot real estate market have driven the mid- and long-term speculation expectations and performance explosion expectations.

For other market mainlines, there is no expectation of a reversal in underlying logic, changes in fundamentals, or improvements in valuations.

Therefore, even after the subsequent "big infrastructure" line was adjusted, it came out amid the continued buying of major institutional funds.

It is also highly likely that other main market lines will be difficult to break through.

Moreover, other market main lines will not only be difficult to reverse, but will also most likely be siphoned of liquidity. "

"Lao Zhang, you mean that no matter how the market goes, we still have to rely on the line of 'big infrastructure' to make a profit, right?" Zhao Zhiyuan said, "And it is likely that in the second half of the market, the line of 'big infrastructure' will be the core speculation line of the entire market, right?"

This work is organized and uploaded by Liujiu Book Bar~~

Zhang Wei nodded and responded: "I think so. In terms of the current situation, valuation, and expected conditions, the hype potential of the 'big infrastructure' sector is obviously better than that of liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, finance and other sectors.

After all, there are defensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals, liquor, white goods, consumption, and finance.

After more than half a year of continuous counter-trend growth, many future expectations have been fulfilled and valuations have been generally repaired through the collective speculation of the "national team" and a number of major institutions.

However, there is still a huge gap in expectations on the "big infrastructure" line.

What's more, the current offline real estate market is still booming, and the increase in housing prices shows no sign of stopping.

In other words, in the coming year, stocks related to the real estate industry chain.

Especially for leading companies in the industry, a huge performance explosion is basically inevitable.

Therefore, in the entire market, the "big infrastructure" line, in my opinion, is the safest main line of speculation. Even if you get the rhythm wrong and get stuck in the short term, you can quickly get out of the trap and make money by holding more.

Moreover, it is almost an obvious expectation that institutions are bound to hype it up.

In other words, no matter how many twists and turns its current adjustment trend has, it will eventually form an upward breakthrough trend.

We just need to keep an eye on this core theme and wait patiently for the opportunity to invest heavily again."

"Okay." Zhao Zhiyuan smiled and responded, "Since you two are so confident about the 'big infrastructure' line and believe that this core line will inevitably break upward, then just focus on this line. I am not interested in the defensive main line sectors such as liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption, and finance, which have been seriously grouped together by institutions and continuously hyped up by the 'national team'. Overall... it is indeed the 'big infrastructure' line that can truly form a long-term force in the market, and its underlying logic can also be unanimously recognized by everyone."

"At present, it is actually limited by market liquidity, and there is a divergence between logical expectations and stock prices." Liang Jiucheng emphasized, "Generally speaking, when there is a divergence between logical expectations and stock prices, an unexpected investment opportunity will appear, which is also what we commonly call a 'golden pit'."

Along with the discussion among several core speculators of the main speculator group of "Qilu Gang", as well as the analysis of the future market conditions.

In the market, pessimistic panic is still spreading.

At the same time, in the evening, everyone had expected that the trend of the external markets would boost confidence in some domestic financial markets, but this did not come true.

Late at night, the trend of U.S. stocks also formed a "high diving" pattern.

This directly led to the core indices of the two markets opening at a 8% drop on the next day, Tuesday, August 16, after a ten-minute call auction.

Among them, there is the ChiNext Index, which represents the performance of small and medium-sized stocks, and the CSI 500 Index.

It even opened lower with a drop of nearly 1.5%.

Moreover, in addition to the sharp opening of the index, yesterday's market trend saw the obvious loss-making effect of the 'big infrastructure' main line, as well as the Internet software, film and television media, electronic information, new energy industry chain and other main line sectors leading the decline, and their corresponding core hot stocks.

All of them showed a trend of opening significantly lower, and many of them even opened with a drop of more than 5%.

And based on the opening situation of the two cities.

Basically, it can be declared that all investor groups who participated in the market yesterday, and all buying capital groups who took over the market yesterday, were all killed.

"It's a big low opening trend!" Noticing the tragic opening scene of the two markets, Jia Yongxiang, the trading team leader of the main fund product trading room of Huarui Fund Management Company, 'Huarui Performance Growth No. 1', frowned and said with emotion, "All the funds that took over the long position yesterday were buried. This feedback... is really bad. Moreover, after the Shanghai Composite Index fell through the low point of the previous few days' shock support, it directly opened with a gap down. This shows that the market has no support at all at this position, and the adjustment is far from over."

"Indeed, the opening was too tragic." Song Shaopu, the product manager of the main fund "Hua Rui Excellent Growth No. 1" behind Jia Yongxiang, responded, "I didn't expect the market to be so panic, but I still think... even if this is not the bottom support position at the end of the adjustment, it is estimated that it will not fall too deep."

"Really?" Jia Yongxiang disagreed with Song Shaopu's judgment and said, "Without enough buying, and with the spread of panic, it will be difficult for the index to hold up here, right?"

"The time and space for the previous adjustment are actually quite long." Song Shaopu said, "The momentum of the sell-off in the market is not as strong as we imagined, and the underlying logic of the 'big infrastructure' line is clear. The main institutional capital groups are also very willing to take over the chips of this line. In addition, the short-term profit-taking within this core line has basically been cleared, and the loose locked-in shares have been almost smashed in the past few days."