We are all reborn, who wants to be the richest man?
Chapter 659 Soybean Blockade 4
Those who understand the situation can see from the NBC noon news that this is a trap set by the Far East Group for the four major grain traders.
But what can we do? This is just normal business competition, and no one can say anything about it.
NBC's midday news broadcast was like a precise fuse, instantly causing a violent shock in the market.
In less than an hour, soybean futures prices at the Chicago Board of Trade experienced a cliff-like drop. Not only did it fall below the psychological barrier of $180 per ton, but its downward momentum was unstoppable, like an out-of-control waterfall, until it reached $174 per ton, when this violent decline was only restrained.
However, as we all know, the price of $174 per ton is by no means the end of market fluctuations. As to whether it will fall below the $170 mark, it is just a slight difference in time. It may be revealed today or delayed until tomorrow.
The 160 million tons of soybeans plus the bumper harvest in Black Sea Province, one of the world's four largest soybean producing areas, not only made up for the 150 million tons of soybean gap predicted by U.S. agencies this year, but there is also a large surplus, which means overcapacity.
"Boss, something bad has happened."
"Say," Cramond almost shouted.
"The futures we added later were liquidated."
"What? Why no margin call".
"The margin call happened so quickly that we had no chance to raise funds."
The secretary was also helpless because all of ADM's funds were used to pay advance payments for contracts with soybean growers, and there was not much left.
Now, not only are futures contracts being liquidated, but the final payment to soybean farmers is also a problem.
You have to know that the price ADM signed with these soybean farmers at that time was not the current soybean price, which means that the more they collected, the more they had to pay.
If the price of soybean futures continues to fall like this, they may lose $50 per ton of soybeans, which is unimaginable.
If this is true, the soybeans alone will cost hundreds of millions of dollars.
The secretary was still waiting for Cramond to give instructions, but now Cramond had slumped in his chair.
How glorious he was half a month ago, and how decadent he is now.
Seeing this, the secretary could only sigh helplessly and walked out.
He knew that Cramond was finished.
Regardless of whether the decision was correct at the time, someone needs to take the blame.
Similarly, as a member of Cramond's team, I also have to consider the future.
A day later, the chairmen of the four largest grain traders gathered in Chicago.
CEO? Their CEO is hiding somewhere now. He has been fired.
It cannot be said that all of them were fired, at least not those at Cargill.
It should be said that Cargill is a family-owned industry that is not listed, and their CEO is the chairman of the board.
“There is no other way now, the only way is to talk to Pioneer Seeds.
I think the long positions we added should all be liquidated, right? This is not a solution. No one knows how much soybean futures will fall. If the initial investment is also liquidated, the loss is not something we can afford.
Moreover, if this continues, the price difference between the soybean farmers and the orders they have signed previously will only get bigger and bigger, and no one can afford this loss."
"Negotiate with Pioneer Seeds? Will they talk to us?"
"Yes," Cargill was very sure.
"The United States government cannot watch us perish, and Luo Nianzhong understands this.
And we have the bargaining chips in our hands, we have something the other side wants."
"Are you talking about agricultural subsidies? Once genetically modified crops are added, the development of Pioneer Seed Industry will be even more unstoppable."
"Can we restrain the other party now?" Cargill scoffed at Bunge's concerns.
"The reason why you wanted to exclude genetically modified crops from agricultural subsidies was because you guys hadn't made any breakthroughs in your research on genetically modified crops, right?"
Cargill has already developed genetically modified crops together with Monsanto. Cargill is actually at a disadvantage due to the agricultural subsidies this time.
As for why the other three major grain traders do not use Monsanto seeds and insist on conducting their own research, it is because they do not want to be controlled by others.
Because of Pioneer Seeds, Monsanto has not been able to develop in recent years, and its market share has been squeezed.
The reason why Cargill cooperated with Monsanto to develop genetically modified seeds was because the two companies had the intention of merging.
By that time, the other three grain traders that do not have genetically modified seeds will have to depend on Cargill and Pioneer Seeds, which is not the result they want.
In order not to be controlled by others, it is necessary to embark on the path of independent research and development. These are also the reasons why the three grain traders have joined forces to put pressure on Cargill.
However, things have changed, and the original plan to exclude genetically modified crops from agricultural subsidies has now become a factor that must be compromised.
"Negotiations are possible, but the other party must find a way to maintain the price of soybean futures above $175. This is the bottom line."
Louis Dreyfus' words were recognized by everyone. Now they must make soybean prices rise again, otherwise the negotiations will be meaningless.
Now the long positions of the four major grain traders in futures have been blown to the limit. If they want to close their positions, they must short contracts.
Everyone in the market is shorting and no one is selling. Even if there is a sale, the quantity is negligible for the four major grain traders.
Pioneer Seeds will definitely be slaughtered by this blow, but they hope that the soybean futures price can go up so that the losses on the soybean farmers will be reduced and minimized.
On September 9, Rodrigo made a high-profile appearance in Chicago, and everyone knew that this was the time for negotiations among the five major grain traders.
Yes, the five major grain traders.
The exposure of the Far East region allowed the world to see the strength of Pioneer Seeds. It is a vast land, and its area is unimaginable.
Now Pioneer Seed has basically completed its layout in Southeast Asia and Brazil. If the Far East can also produce large-scale grain, Pioneer Seed will at least be no less than the four major grain traders in terms of total grain trade volume.
Moreover, whether it is Pioneer Seed's Xiannong, or Wilmar International in Southeast Asia, they are all from the Far East and can support Pioneer Seed at any time.
This is the reason why the media has been hyping up the change from the Big Four to the Big Five recently. Pioneer Seeds is now qualified to stand at the same level as the Big Four grain traders.
"A price of $2600 per lot? This is not just a pipe dream, it's robbery."
"Robbery? I think the price is reasonable."
Rodrigo was not threatened by the other party, and his tone was full of contempt. It seemed that it would be better if the talks failed.
"We can't accept this price, the maximum is US$2400 per lot."
Even Bunge thinks $2400 per contract is too much. You should know that when soybean futures reached their peak, they were less than $240 per ton.
"I think you need to understand one thing, that is, this is a seller's market, and we have made a lot of concessions on this price."
"You're giving in just because of this? You're robbing me."
"Then you can call the police to arrest me."
Rodrigo looks like a ruffian and doesn't look like a CEO of an international giant at all.
"Pioneer Seeds will not change this price. If you cannot accept it, there is no need for us to proceed to the next step."
After saying that, Rodrigo stood up and left the meeting room without looking back.
When the negotiation team from Pioneer Seeds saw their boss leaving, they quickly packed up their things and followed him.
Seeing the door closed, the ADM representative angrily cursed the other party.
"What is he? He is just a foreign lackey who betrayed his country."
ADM was very dissatisfied with Rodrigo for not helping his country's enterprises and proposing such robbery-like conditions.
"Now we are the prey, so we must be prepared to be slaughtered.
If ADM still has this attitude next time, I suggest we negotiate separately."
"What do you mean?"
"It means exactly what it says."
When the ADM people saw Cargill saying such words that undermined unity, they immediately questioned it. They originally wanted to win over the other two companies, but when they looked over, they found that the people from Louis Dreyfus and Bunge were silent.
Everyone understands that among the four major grain traders, ADM has the largest leverage and loses the most money, so he cannot accept the price of $2600.
Because compared to $2400 per lot, this would cause ADM to lose hundreds of millions of dollars more.
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