Rebirth of England.

Barron nodded and said:

"The U.S. stock market is currently recovering, but it will take time for investors to regain their enthusiasm, so it is appropriate to choose to go public next year."

After hearing Barron say this to him personally, Boss Ma became more certain in his heart.

After all, in addition to his identity as the Duke of England, his investment vision has been verified countless times.

It can be said that in the past ten years, Barron's investments have not failed at all.

In the investment field, he has become an investment master comparable to Warren Buffett. In comparison, the only thing Buffett is better than Barron is that he has a longer period of sustained profitability.

But this is limited by the age difference between the two, not the fault of the war.

Of course, there may be many reasons why a company chooses to go public, such as gaining higher visibility and enabling early investors to exit with profits, etc.

But the most important purpose is to obtain the funds needed for business development through IPO listing - the original purpose of the stock market was to provide financing channels for enterprises.

Therefore, Boss Ma naturally hopes that Alibaba can choose the right time to go public at the IPO, which will increase the company's valuation and get a good stock price, thereby attracting investors and gaining more exposure.

Baron's affirmation is equivalent to giving Boss Ma a reassurance - after all, according to the agreement between the two parties, after Alibaba goes public, Baron needs to sell the Alibaba shares he holds through DS Holdings (Cavendish Trust).

Therefore, even for his own interests, he must hope to sell those Alibaba shares at a good price, and there is no need to falsify his statements.

Just like what Barron's analyzed about Mr. Ma, since 2013, the U.S. stock market has hit new highs...

Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 16.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by 14.55%.

But what is strange is that although the stock market seems to be on a good upward trend, American investors seem unwilling to follow suit easily. Financial tycoons have also quietly withdrawn a large amount of funds from the bull market. Some well-known American investors have made no secret of their concerns about the market outlook, believing that the US stock market is currently overbought and the possibility of a collapse is increasing.

It is worth noting that the rise of stock market indices breaking through certain values ​​does not mean that there will be a real impact on the market direction. Valuation levels, economic growth and corporate profit growth rates are the core decisive factors.

Is the continued rise of the US stock market a true economic recovery or a hidden fragility? Is a collapse possible? These are the questions that financial media and investors have been discussing.

In particular, in May, Federal Reserve Chairman Bergen hinted in a private speech that he intended to reduce the scale of quantitative easing policies, which had a certain impact on the market at the time...

But no official speeches or policies have appeared so far...

Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Bergen changed his words again, hinting that the Fed had no intention of reducing QE, which surprised investors who had expected a reduction in the bond purchase plan. U.S. stocks rose sharply in response, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hitting record highs again, and all ten major industry sectors achieved gains...

In fact, since June this year, doves and hawks have been arguing about QE6. The speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has comforted investors who have been troubled by the Fed's policy adjustments recently, and the overall U.S. stock market has remained strong.

Of course, as Barron had said to Robert Kennedy Jr. before, although it seems that the S&P and Dow Jones Industrial Average have risen this year, not all stocks can "benefit equally"...

Among them, the best performing sectors are consumer, TMT (technology, media, and communications) and financial sectors. In the past month, pharmaceutical and automotive sectors have also performed well - as the economy improves, their demand has begun to accelerate.

If we compare it with the Federal Reserve's policy timetable, it is not difficult to find that in the four and a half years from 2009 to the present, every wave of stock market highs coincides with the time when quantitative easing policies were introduced.

2008年11月至2010年3月，美联储推出QE1（第一轮量化宽松），期间共购买了1.725万亿美元资产，道琼斯工业指数也从8479.47点升至10856.63点，上涨28.03%。

2010年8月至2011年6月，QE2实施期间，美联储购买了6000亿美元的美利坚长期国债，道琼斯工业指数从11215.13点升至12414.34点，阶段涨幅为10.69%。

2012年9月至12月，美联储相继启动QE3及QE4，每月除了继续购买400亿美元抵押贷款支持证券外，还将额外购买约450亿美元长期国债。

道琼斯工业指数从13539.86点升至2013年5月22日的最高点15542.40点，区间最大涨幅达24.61%。

It seems that with the introduction of QE, the US economy has achieved restorative growth.

According to data released by the U.S. Treasury Department in June this year, as of the first quarter of 6, the U.S. economy has grown for 2013 consecutive quarters, which means that since the second half of 15, the U.S. economy has gradually emerged from the trough.

However, policies are not always introduced in one direction, and the arrival of the window for exiting quantitative easing makes the situation complicated.

"In order to stabilize the confidence of debt-holding countries, it is unlikely that the Fed will withdraw from QE this year. However, in order to reduce the cost of funds and ease the financial crisis, the Fed has to make gestures, but each time it is just a lot of noise but little action. Bernanke has no new tricks to come up with."

This is what was said in a related report published in the Wall Street Journal last week.

However, what is still eye-catching are the actions of financial tycoons and Wall Street capital. After all, in the eyes of many people, they can obtain more information.

According to the regulatory documents of the SEC, Soros began to sell off bank stocks as early as the first quarter of this year, including stocks of famous banks such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs...

American hedge fund tycoon Paulson (who became famous for short selling during the subprime mortgage crisis and manages funds worth more than 200 billion US dollars) is also quietly shorting the stock market by investing in American industrial, commercial and financial stocks.

In addition, Dealogic statistics show that private equity investment companies have realized $578 billion so far this year, far higher than the $2007 billion in the same period of 350 (the peak before the crisis) and the record level of $2011 billion set in 430.

However, there are certainly some that continue to increase their investment in U.S. stocks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Barron's companies - Merrill Lynch Investment, DS Group's funds, etc.

Although most industry insiders are optimistic that the U.S. stock market will continue to fluctuate in the future due to the Federal Reserve's "tightening curse" effect and external market risks, considering the continued recovery of the U.S. economy and increased corporate profitability, the U.S. stock market still has room to rise before the end of the year.

然而，狂热的华尔街还是让多年来屡屡上当并吸取教训的美利坚股民心有余悸，1929年10月29日、1987年10月19日美利坚历史上的两次大崩盘为亢奋的牛市敲响了警钟。

Before the outbreak of the two crises, the stock market was booming. This prosperity attracted a large amount of hot money. The profit-seeking hot money frantically pushed up stock prices, and false bubbles were created one after another.

Of course, Baron will not publicly express any opinions on this, but his attitude towards Alibaba's choice of listing has already shown that he is optimistic about the economic situation next year, especially the economic situation in the United States.