Manhattan Reborn 1978

Southeast Texas, Houston.

Afternoon~

West of downtown, Piney Point Village in the Memorial District, 89 Pinewood Avenue.

After seeing off Rudi and Rosenlo, David felt that he finally had some free time to spend Easter with his family.

However, the time that makes everyone feel relaxed and happy always slips away quickly.

After David had dinner with his family, a phone call that took him by surprise broke the peace.

"What's wrong?" Sera's mother wiped her hands with her apron, walked to her son and asked in a low voice with concern.

"Nothing, Mom." David slowly put down the phone, took a deep breath, turned around and smiled.

"I received an invitation yesterday and I declined it..."

"But now there are some minor problems, and I need to go over and take a look tomorrow."

"Oh? Is it important?"

"Ah."

"Then go ahead, you don't have to worry about the family."

"I love you, Mom!" David opened his arms and hugged his mother, kissed her on the forehead, and laughed softly.

"Haha~ I love you too, kid." Mother Sera hugged her son tightly, kissed his cheek and smiled.

. . .

a new day.

Good morning, nine o'clock sharp.

At 19 Pinewood Avenue, Professor Armstrong Bartlett's holiday villa.

David walked into the living room carrying a tray, poured coffee for the people sitting on the sofa, then put down two specially prepared glasses of juice and said with a smile.

"I thought you were going to party till late last night..."

"Haha~"

California business tycoon Piro Jan Cherov, holding his pregnant wife Diane Yulington beside him, glanced at his daughter Livlyn G. Cherov and her fiancé Leslie Rockefeller, and waved to David with a smile.

"Last night, we were just a gathering of old friends and family..."

"You are the master, please sit down first."

"Let me introduce you~"

"These two are my old friends and partners, Malcolm Baldridge and Eric Wall-Ames."

"Malcolm served as Deputy Secretary of Commerce during President Ford's term a few years ago."

"When he learned that I wanted to invest in building a Cushing crude oil storage transit warehouse industrial zone, he immediately saw the opportunity and decided to personally design and build Cushing."

"Eric, was the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board."

"I told him a lot about your ideas, and he thought he should come and meet you."

"So, we coordinated the time at the party last night and came today..."

"Oh~ Welcome!"

David didn't expect that old Cheroff would directly give this "opening speech". He smiled with a slightly surprised expression and nodded to the two gray-haired "unexpected" visitors.

Malcolm Baldrige, who was wearing a suit, thin but with bright eyes, nodded with a smile on his face in response.

Eric Wallams, who was wearing an ordinary jacket and had a long face and thin hair, did not hide his strong curiosity at all and asked David with a smile.

"Are you Professor Bartlet's newest student?"

"Yes."

"You didn't go to college? You only graduated from high school?"

"Um...yeah." David grinned, spread his hands and shrugged.

"I was very unskilled in my studies and failed to get into university after taking the exams twice in a row."

“So, I went straight to New York to work after graduating from high school.”

"Being a bartender in a bar?"

"Yes."

"Then can you tell me why Professor Bartlett accepted you as a student?"

"Well... maybe... he thinks I'm a genius in this area..."

"Wow ~ Hahaha!" Eric looked at David, who exuded strong confidence, and smiled to the two old friends beside him.

"This kid is very interesting. What do you think?"

"Malcolm, do you want to test him again?"

"No need." Malcolm, who was called by his old friend, shook his head slowly, glanced at Leslie and Livlin who were sitting next to David, and saw that both of them had an expression of waiting to "watch the show" on their faces. He moved his eyes slightly and asked David.

"Can you tell us what you have learned from Professor Bartlett?"

"of course."

David tilted his head and glanced at his "bad friend" Leslie. Taking advantage of the brief time of "exchanging information" with him through eye contact, he quickly calculated everything in his mind and smiled.

"I might have to take up everyone's coffee time, is that okay?"

"Yeah." Old Cherov took the initiative to speak, looked at David with a smile and nodded, found a comfortable position for himself, and put on an attitude of "listening carefully".

"OK!" Seeing that today's main guest had spoken, David simply put aside his speculation and said in a relaxed tone.

"My mentor told me that before the black swan was discovered in Australia, all Europeans were convinced that all swans were white and that there could be no black swans."

“It is an unbreakable belief because it seems to be confirmed in people’s experience.”

"And for some ornithologists, and other people who care deeply about colour in birds, seeing the first black swan might be an interesting surprise, but that's not the significance of finding a black swan in Australia."

"But just one observation can overturn the conclusions drawn from millions of deterministic observations of white swans over thousands of years..."

“I think the existence of black swans just illustrates that the knowledge we gain through observation or experience has serious limitations and fragility.”

“So, I decided to use the term black swan to describe some major events with similar characteristics.”

"And I have also specially set three characteristics that must be met for the Black Swan event~"

"First, it must be unexpected, that is, it must be outside of normal expectations, which means there must be no evidence to establish the likelihood of its occurrence."

"Secondly, it will have some very extreme impacts on a certain country or a certain field."

“Again, despite its unexpected nature, human nature prompts us to make up reasons for its occurrence after the fact and make it explainable and predictable.”

"For example, the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant leak that happened a few days ago is a typical black swan event."

"These days, no matter how the responsible party explains the accident in the media, it is difficult to calm ordinary people's concerns about nuclear power plant safety issues."

"So it is not difficult for us to predict now that in the next ten, twenty years, or even longer~"

"Nuclear power is strongly rejected by ordinary people in China, which has led to the gradual decline of nuclear power-related companies, and then allowed traditional coal-fired power and hydropower companies to rise again."

"Yeah..." Eric, who once worked at a senior level in the SEC, nodded to David with an appreciative smile and continued.

"The night before yesterday, I received some unofficial news..."

"Some coal production companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange are preparing to restart plans to increase some production capacity this year."

"There are also several listed hydropower enterprise holding companies that are preparing to launch additional stock issuance this year to raise funds and complete plans to increase equipment and capacity."

"Will their stocks go up?" Old Cherov asked after pondering for a few seconds.

"Ah."

“How much do you think it will increase?”

"Within two weeks, it will increase by at least 3% to 6%." Eric gave a number very confidently.

After listening to this, Old Cherov turned to David and asked, "Did you buy them?"

"I bought some before, and I plan to buy some more after the stock market opens in New York today." David answered honestly.

"Well, since you want to buy it, buy more."

"If you are short of money, tell me."

"Ok, thank you!"

"Go on~"

"Um... continue what? Can you give me some directions?"

"Casual!"

"There's no outsider here, you can talk freely." Old Cherov put his hand on his wife Diane's shoulder and said with a smile.

"..Okay." David forced himself to smile with a strange expression, his eyes drifted over Diane, he immediately made a decision in his mind, and said with a smile.

"It just so happens that after studying for a while, I have come up with a very practical simplified economic analysis model. If you are willing to listen, I will share it with you..?"

"Okay, let's start." Eric's eyes showed great interest. He picked up the coffee cup and smiled relaxedly.

"OK~ Please wait a moment!" David said, and stood up and walked quickly into the study, pulling out a small movable blackboard and placing it in front of everyone.

Then he found the chalk and the blackboard eraser, stood in front of everyone and smiled.

“Economics is a very complex and comprehensive subject.”

"Although the model I summarized does not quite conform to the conventional theories of traditional economics..."

"But I have used it to verify the credibility of the economic cycle theory many times over the past six months."

“So I call it, How The Economic Machine Works.”

At this point, David looked at Diane who was sitting next to Old Cherov and said with a smile: "Don't worry, even if you don't know much about economics, you can understand these simplified theories I'm talking about, and they will never bore you."

"Hehe~" Diane, who had a gentle face, smiled and nodded. With her eyes narrowed, she seemed to exude infinite charm inadvertently.

But at this moment, old Cherov did not pay attention to the people around him, but tilted his head to look at his daughter Livlin and "son-in-law" Leslie, his eyes moved slightly, and no one knew what he was thinking.

(Note: You can search for the video based on the title on the Internet. It is 30 minutes long and is a very good entry-level popular science explanation of the principles of economic operation. You may want to watch it if you have time.

The following content is a text version I compiled based on the video. If you don’t like it, you can skip it.)

. . .

David wrote the title on the blackboard beside him with chalk and continued writing while speaking.

“The economic system consists of a few simple parts and a simple set of transactions repeated countless times, driven primarily by human nature, which form three major economic forces.”

"They are productivity growth, the short-term debt cycle and the long-term debt cycle."

“Let’s talk about these three dynamics and how they fit together to form a good model for tracking the economy and understanding what’s happening.”

“Productivity is mainly composed of two key factors: technology and people.”

"We all know that since the first industrial revolution, various innovative industrial machines that have subverted the production model of traditional industries have emerged in an endless stream~"

"It took mankind less than two hundred years to complete two leapfrog industrial revolutions, increasing productivity countless times."