Manhattan Reborn 1978

New York City, Southeast.

afternoon.

The big group of dark clouds in the sky made people feel that a snowstorm was coming~

Brooklyn, Brighton Beach.

Yuri Orlov parked his car on the street, looked around nervously, and quickly walked into his restaurant.

ten minutes later.

Yuri took his brother Vitaly and his mother, locked the door of the restaurant, checked the guardrails on the windows again, then hurriedly got into the car, and drove away under the curious eyes of some passers-by~

on the way.

Yuri's mother, who was sitting in the back seat, held the hand of her youngest son Vitaly and asked Yuri, who was still a little confused, driving.

"Where is your father? Aren't you going to find him?"

Yuri tried to calm down his nervousness, slowly stopped the car at an intersection with a red light, looked in the rearview mirror and said.

"I called the church that dad often goes to~"

"He'll be waiting for us on our route."

"Oh.."

"But...where are we going?"

"Go to a safe place!"

"Safety?"

"We are at home. Isn't it safe?"

"No!"

Yuri shifted the starting gear and said cautiously while staring at the red light.

"Not our home... but the entire Little Odyssey is unsafe!"

"...!?"

Yuri's younger brother Vitaly, as if he understood what his brother meant, put his arm around his mother's shoulders and smiled.

"We all have doubts in our hearts..."

“But we believe more...that my brother will not harm us, right?

"...Hmm!" Yuri's mother turned her head and looked at her son's little face, couldn't help but smile bitterly, kissed him, and nodded.

"Okay~ I will listen to you all..."

"Haha~" Vitaly smiled and made a "done" gesture to his brother in the rearview mirror.

Yuri glanced at the rearview mirror, and after seeing his gesture, he finally focused all his attention on driving.

. . .

more than an hour later.

The sun sets~

The car driven by Yuri went all the way west, passing through Manhattan, the Lincoln Tunnel, Jersey City and Newark.

New Jersey, near a small town southwest of Newark.

The training base of the security company.

Yuri took advantage of the afterglow of the setting sun to see the buildings of the training base from a distance, and finally slowly let go of the big stone in his heart~

He intentionally slowed down the car, parked the car slowly on the side of the road about 200 meters away from the training base gate, turned to look at his family, and explained.

"You guys...remember the two people who came to our restaurant to collect protection money?"

"Ah~"

"Remember.."

"Could it be...?"

Yuri looked at the different reactions of his father, mother and brother and said with a wry smile.

"You don't have to make random guesses..."

"Little Odessa will be in chaos for some time to come..."

“The location of our restaurant is relatively easy to...”

"So, we found a temporary place for you to stay in the small town ahead for a few days~"

"When everything calms down again, we will go back and move!"

"move place?"

"Where are you going?"

Yuri's father and mother asked their son in surprise.

Yuri's younger brother, Vitaly, saw the confusion and guilt in his brother's eyes, stretched out his hand to stop his father and mother, and smiled.

"Since we came to New York, almost every festival has been open and busy..."

"Don't you want to take a break?"

"Just treat it as a temporary break for a few days, okay?"

"Just stop asking!"

"..."

Yuri's mother, who had always made decisions at home, now looked at her husband.

Yuri's father lowered his head, fiddled with the faded felt hat in his hand, thought for a while, and asked his eldest son Yuri.

"Where's your girlfriend, Ava Fangtian?"

"she.."

"I've arranged it for you, then go back to find her!"

"go back?"

"You're not with us?"

Yuri quickly adjusted his expression, smiled and said to his family.

"Don't worry!"

"No matter what happens, we'll be fine!"

"Besides, I still have to go to work1"

"Without money, I can't give Ava the life she wants~"

"..." Yuri's father lowered his head and stopped talking.

Yuri's mother held her son's hand, hesitated for a while, and then said: "We are here...you don't have to worry."

"You should always call and let us know about you..."

"Okay, Mom!" Yuri's maturity at this moment made both his father and mother feel a little more at ease.

Yuri's younger brother Vitaly put his arm around his mother's shoulders and silently watched his brother start the car again. He felt surprisingly calm in his heart~

This is. . ?

----

Manhattan.

42nd Street, the Auxiliary Police Office across from the Wildfire Bar.

The person in charge here, Superintendent Alston, pointed at the urban map behind him and said to a dozen people in the office.

"Starting tonight, you will be divided into nine groups, here and here... Find a temporary place to stay..."

"I have applied to Director Matthews for a batch of police revolvers and shotguns in stock for temporary distribution to you as..."

"Your mission is to protect the safety of citizens!"

"Don't shoot unless you have to!"

"Every shot you fire must be reported..."

"If you want to hold a party in the street, you'd better think about how to write a report first..."

"I won't help!"

"what??"

"what?"

"I can even spell my own name wrong... What report should I write?"

"Hahaha~"

More than a dozen auxiliary police officers in different clothes laughed and started making noises.

Auston waved his hands to everyone helplessly, pointed at a uniformed police officer at the door and said.

"You will split up later and find a place to stay. Then give us your phone number so that we can contact you at any time."

"The four phones here will be answered 24 hours a day."

"For the firearms and ammunition, please wait an hour and have someone come over to collect them."

"Do you have any other questions?"

"Yes~"

"We...what kind of action is this?"

"Yup!"

"You didn't make it clear, who are we going to keep an eye on?"

"Do we have to take care of fights on the street?"

"nonsense!"

"Protect citizens, do you understand?"

"Innocent citizens were beaten, of course you have to take care of it!"

"Uh...hahaha~"

"What the hell! If I don't go up and patch him up, it doesn't matter..."

"That's enough! Shut up!"

Auston frowned and yelled at everyone, which immediately made the group of laughing guys quiet down in surprise.

"Where are your brains?!"

"Please use this and think carefully!"

"Why...were you not issued police guns before?"

"Why... aren't you the first batch to enter the police academy for training?"

"Why...are you assigned to perform a mission in Brooklyn?"

"Why... I asked you to find a place to stay separately, but I didn't tell you the specific mission?"

"If you don't want to go to hell for no reason... just shut up and use your brain!"

"fxxx!"

"..."

After Auston sprayed wildly at everyone for a while, he sat down and covered his forehead and stopped talking.

in the crowd.

Everyone, look at me, and I'll look at you. .

Suddenly, a guy stood up from his seat, raised his chin to Superintendent Allston, and smiled.

"Go to hell? Haha~"

"Aren't we in hell?"

"Is it possible that there are angels among us?"

"...Hahahaha~"

"Hey~ You are so fucking awesome..."

"That's right!"

"Hahaha~ How did you know I was wearing red underwear today?"

"what?"

"Red panties? Where's your red cape? Where's your tights?"

"Are you fucking Superman?"

"Hahaha~ He is a fucking superman..."

"..."

Auston rubbed his bouncing temples and waved weakly to everyone.

"Let's go~ Let's all go!"

. . .

ten minutes later.

In the office that was finally quiet, Alston stood in front of the map, staring at the place name marked with a pencil, lost in thought.

hope. .There won't be too much trouble this time!

----

On the Pacific Ocean, Hawaii.

398 Corudilla Avenue, Honolulu Island.

On the second floor, in the study.

David put down the notebook in his hand, grabbed Cui Yingying who brought him iced pineapple juice, held her in his arms, and said loudly to the two phones that were talking with a smile.

"Professor Bartlet, Professor Samuelson..."

"You are not unfamiliar with the rational expectations hypothesis proposed by Professor J. F. Muth in his article "The Theory of Rational Tone and Price Changes" for the most unique characteristics of adaptive expectations (Adaptive expectations), right?"

"I was lucky enough to find some research papers on Rational Expectations by Professor Robert E. Lucas Jr. from the University of Chicago and Professor Thomas J. Sargent from the University of Minnesota."

"Including papers such as "Investment and Uncertainty", "Understanding Economic Wrinkles", and "Unemployment Policy" published by Professor Robert E. Lucas, Jr.

"Rational expectations refer to a certain economic phenomenon... such as market prices. When making expectations, if people are rational, then they will make full use of the information they have obtained to make correct actions. Rather than making systematic mistakes..."

"In other words, if our government is compared to a rational person, as long as the expectations are rational... it should avoid repeating the same mistakes and entering a cycle of making the same mistakes again."

"Because rational expectations are essentially an equilibrium concept."

"It does not just refer to the rational assumption of personal behavior. Only when integrated with market equilibrium can rational expectations and rational expectations equilibrium (REE) be correctly understood."

“Therefore, according to the theory of rational expectations, the government should abandon discretionary fiscal and financial policies, focus fiscal and financial policies on preventing and reducing inflation rather than unemployment, and regard the optimal price level as its only objective. policy objectives.”

"And~"

"I saw from Professor Lucas's paper that he believes that the cycle theory should have more detailed practical research, and then base the theory on two basic assumptions~"

"Enterprises, manufacturers and workers all have relatively consistent goals, that is, they are regarded as a group with consistent interests. This is an important theoretical basis of the Lucas cycle theory!"

"Although the interests of enterprises and individuals are the same, they always belong to different social groups and have different levels of economic information - and economic fluctuations depend on producers' response to changes in the price of their products."

When David said this, he held Cui Yingying in his arms and kissed her quickly in the ear, which made her feel a little weak all over, and then he continued "satisfied".

"Professor Lucas's theories are based on the monetarist theory of Professor Milton Friedman and have been further expanded upon~"

"He tried to coordinate the business cycle theory with the basic theory of economic equilibrium analysis, which means that the cyclical fluctuations of the economy are not inconsistent with the individual behavior of pursuing the maximization of personal interests, and the price mechanism of continuous market clearing."

"So, I call it... equilibrium business cycle theory."

"But~"

"He also vaguely expressed it in the paper... The expected errors are, in essence, random!"

"If some market participants only know the price information of the local market, they will mistakenly regard the increase in the general price level as an increase in the relative price of their individual products, causing price expectation errors."

“This is the expected error caused by information asymmetry, which leads to deviations from the long-term equilibrium price level.”

. . .

Cui Yingying, who fell limply in David's arms, listened to the convoluted and difficult-to-understand economic theory terms he spoke. .

Although she really enjoyed the intimacy at this moment, the remaining bit of reason told her that she should leave. .

But she wanted to leave. .David wants her to stay temporarily!

David hugged her "arrogantly" and returned to his seat, still holding her in his arms. While looking at the notebook on the table, he continued to speak into the quiet microphone.

“In recent years, the coexistence of inflation and stagnant economic growth has made Keynesian theory self-defeating.”

"Using the method of rational expectations to explain Keynes' theory of the ineffectiveness of macroeconomic policies came into being~"

"I know that both of you may not agree with...the so-called theoretical expectations theory and monetarist theory..."

"But when I mention them at this time, I am not voting for them, but to expand some content space for my new book "Money and Finance"~"

“Because I will list a separate chapter in the book to cover the rational price expectations of the stock market, the expected relationship between monetary policy and commodity prices, the basis of rational expectations in investment, the assumptions of efficient markets in financial markets, etc. Written as part of the content..."

"To this end, I will also raise questions and verify some individual examples of the New York Stock Exchange in the book~"

"For example: In reality, short selling rarely occurs..."

"Because short-selling profits are based on other people's pain."

“People’s aversion to losses often causes them to bear strong psychological pressure when making decisions that may lead to investment failure, and then make some irrational behaviors.”

"About this point, I plan to further elaborate and demonstrate it in the behavioral finance chapter of China in another book, "Behavioral Economics"~"

“Behavioral finance needs to use some concepts from anthropology, sociology, psychology and other social science fields to explain why people fall into a cycle of rational and irrational choices when making certain investment decisions. ,Inextricable.."

"For example: Why is it that the performance reports released by the fund companies are obviously better than the market trends, but investors who bought the funds cannot make money?"

"Also~"

"The efficient market hypothesis I just mentioned is meaningful... because it does not require everyone in the financial market to be familiar with the specific conditions of the stock market, investment banking, and market making."

"For example: More than 90% of the people I have met don't understand...how many algorithms are there for the annualized rate of return claimed by some fund companies...!?"

"Another example: People all know that when buying stocks, they need to buy low and sell high, but they don't know that the traders they trust may not help them buy any stocks."

"Or, after helping investors make money from the stock market, traders use trust to recommend several other stocks to them again, and force a set of analytical theories of irrational expectations down the throats of investors. Even in my head~"

"This cycle continues until investors lose all their money."

“That’s how the term squeeze trader came about during the oil crisis a few years ago~”

David glanced at the notebook in front of him and knew that he had talked too much today. .

He took a deep breath and said into the still quiet microphone: "We have been chatting for a long time today...most of the time I was talking and you two were listening..."

"My relatively superficial economic theories may still have many errors and omissions~"

"So, I want to ask you two to help testify after I finish part of the manuscript in a few days!"

"..."

Seeing that there was still no sound on the microphone, David simply picked up a microphone, listened quietly for a while, curled his lips silently, and smiled.

"Let me tell you a little story to end today."

"One day, I successfully entered a market-making company to work."

"I got a large list of potential clients from my supervisor, but I had no clue about the work..."

“How to select investment clients who meet certain requirements from these clients is the biggest problem before me!”

“Very lucky~”

"After thinking hard, I finally came up with a good idea!"

"So, I divided the list of all potential clients in half and wrote to these clients separately about the predicted price trends of the two stocks I was very optimistic about."

"A few days later~"

"After one of my two stocks rises as I predicted, I will write another letter with the same prediction to the client group who obtained the information that the prediction was correct."

"That's it, once, twice... after ten times!"

"I have accumulated a number of potential investment clients who have witnessed my predictions ten times and they are all very accurate!"

"Then, I will find a suitable time to call them one by one or visit them one by one to explain why I can predict that the price of a certain stock will rise so accurately."

"And among these customers, only half...or even a few of them recognize my explanation or theory..."

“I got the first batch of real clients who trust my investment ability!”

With a smile on his lips, David held his right hand empty and said.

"Then, if I help my clients make money... I will take advantage of their trust and recommend several other stocks to them again, and force a set of analytical theories of irrational expectations down the throats of investors. .Even in my head~"

"The cycle continues like this until they lose all their money."

"But this batch of customers is gone, and I was able to gain a new batch of potential investment customers during this period... who have witnessed my predictions ten times, and they are all very accurate!"

"If this cycle continues, it may be difficult for me to become a millionaire~"

"But it is still very easy to ensure that my family and I can live a life without worries about food and clothing..."

"Hehe~"

"So...Professor Bartley, Professor Samuelson!"

"Are we going to come here first today?"

"You guys have a good rest first, and we can continue tomorrow?"

"..."

David raised his empty right hand and looked at the two phones intently, waiting. .

"Okay! Let's continue tomorrow!" The first voice came from Professor Samuelson.

"Well... it's the same old time! Hang up~" Professor Bartley's voice also came over.

"ok~bye!"

"Dang~dang~" David said goodbye, but he knocked the table twice with his hands in a very playful manner, and then quickly hung up the phone. .

Cui Yingying, who was sitting curled up in David's arms, couldn't help blushing and smiling sweetly when she saw his "prank succeeded" smile.

"You guys have to talk on the phone tomorrow...Aren't you afraid...?"

"What are you afraid of?!"

"They are all internationally renowned professors with status!"

"Why are you so fussy with a silly boy like me?"

"..." Cui Yingying felt that she was speechless by David's "shameless" reason~

"Hahahaha~" David smiled, lowered his head, kissed her lips hard, and smiled as he smelled the earthy scent that still remained on her body.

"Let's go~ let's go to the airport!"

"..Um!"

----

South-central United States, Texas.

19 Pinewood Avenue, western suburbs of Houston.

in the study.

Professor Bartlet hung up the phone, looked at Old Morgan sitting opposite with a playful expression, and chuckled.

"This kid... I guessed that you were listening!"

"He keeps going in circles. What does that suggest to you?"

"..." Old Morgan frowned, lowered his head and remained silent.

window.

Old Wharton glanced at Giles and his son Bloomer sitting behind Old Morgan, and couldn't help but smile at Professor Bartley.

"Hehe~"

"He's hinting, he's making it clear!"

"Explicitly stated? Expressed to what?"

"What else...?"

Old Wharton looked at Old Morgan with a smile and said with a smile: "This naughty little fox... can't wait any longer!"

"Aren't you going to tell him?"

"..No!"

Old Morgan took a long breath, nodded to Professor Bartlet who was sitting opposite, looked at Old Wharton and asked.

"When are you going to leave?"

"I?"

"Whatever~ I don't have anything that I have to do personally."

"how?"

Old Morgan raised his eyebrows, turned to look at his sons Giles and Bloomer, and said with a smile.

"Do you... want to go to Hawaii?"

"...??" Giles blinked in confusion but said nothing.

Bloomer saw his father, old Walton, and showed his most familiar "smile", winked and nodded.

"Okay~"

"When...are we leaving?"

"As soon as possible~"

"The faster, the better!"

"Um...ok!"

"Go away, Giles!"

"what?"

"..oh!"

. . .

The "smart" Bloomer took the somewhat "dumb" Giles and left.

Professor Bartlet's eyes turned around on the faces of old Morgan and old Wharton, and after seeing them looking at each other for a few seconds, they both showed a once-familiar smile.

"You...is this again...?"

"Hahaha~"

Old Morgan and Old Wharton both made a zipper gesture on their lips and laughed~

----

On the Pacific Ocean, Hawaii.

Honolulu International Airport.

Xina, standing between Elena Mesa and Brotney Mecia, watched the two figures disappear at the end of the passenger passage and asked in a low voice.

"Do you think... they will remarry?"

"Yes!" Brotney Mexia nodded with a very sure smile.

"Oh?"

Zina glanced at her in surprise, then turned to look at Elena again.

Elena held the isolation railing with both hands, looked at the apron outside the hall with wandering eyes, and said softly.

"I have no idea!"

"But this time, I won't bless them anymore!"

"Yeah..." Zina was not surprised by her answer.

But well~

Harold Stone and Harris Schultz, the former fake couple, may not want to get Elena's "blessing" either. .

hehe~

Ps:

Professor Robert E. Lucas Jr., University of Chicago Business School, mentioned in this chapter.

He is known as a heavyweight representative of the rational expectations school. He advocated and developed the application theory of rational expectations and macroeconomics research, deepened people's understanding of economic policies, and put forward unique insights into the business cycle theory.

In 1995, he won the Nobel Prize in Economics.