Manhattan Reborn 1978

Northeastern United States, Massachusetts (Massachusetts).

Morgan Manor, southern suburbs of Boston.

Old Morgan's car stopped in front of the house.

Mr. Butler came forward and whispered a few words to him. Old Morgan nodded in surprise and strode into the door.

layer.

Old Morgan slowed down, stood outside the living room door and listened for a while, then curiously stepped into the living room.

"What are you talking about?"

When David saw old Morgan coming back, he stood up with a smile and replied: "We are chatting..."

"Nothing!" Neriya suddenly interrupted David with a smile, pointed at the microphone, and explained.

"We are talking to Deborah about our plans to vacation in Hawaii."

"Hawaii? Vacation?" Old Morgan stopped looking at the phone for two seconds, walked up to David and asked with a smile.

"Is it your kid's idea again?"

"Hehe~"

David nodded simply and said with a smile: "I originally wanted to take my family to Hawaii for vacation + New Year."

"Oh~"

Old Morgan glanced at his wife Neriya. The two seemed to see each other's thoughts in each other's eyes, and nodded slightly.

"Okay~"

"Then you go and go together!"

"Then... you won't go?"

"I won't go~"

Old Morgan patted David on the shoulder, walked to the phone and sat down, and asked with a smile: "Are you almost done talking?"

"...Yeah!" Neriya replied, squinting her eyes with laughter.

"Then...David, please go and wait for me in the study room upstairs, okay?"

"Ok!"

David responded "obediently" and strode out of the living room, closing the door behind him. .

in the living room.

Old Morgan, after briefly communicating with his wife Neriya, picked up the phone and said with a smile: "Hi Deborah, how are you doing lately?"

. . .

After a few minutes.

Old Morgan hung up the phone, pondered for a moment, and asked his wife Neria.

"Did David call Deborah?"

"No~"

"It was Deborah who took the initiative to call..." Nariya replied as she sat on the sofa, feeling very relaxed.

"Um.."

"I'm going to talk to David, you...?"

"I'm fine~ You go!"

"Ok!"

After confirming with his wife, Old Morgan walked to her, kissed her cheek, and left the living room.

. . .

After Old Morgan left, Neriya crossed her arms in front of her chest, walked to the sunny window, looked at the few large bare trees dancing in the wind in the distance outside the window, and sighed silently.

Deborah, you still guessed it. .

. . .

On the second floor, in the study.

David stood next to an oversized globe, slowly turning it with his fingers, and let out a sigh of relief.

I barely passed the first level~

The second level remains!

Do you want. .What about asking?

He hasn't made up his mind yet~

Maybe it's best not to ask? !

. . .

After a few minutes.

Old Morgan sat behind the desk, glanced at his watch, and smiled at David.

"I have an important appointment after lunch."

"I read your manuscript - it's very good!"

"A few paragraphs in it made me feel that I had gained something."

"When are you going to get it all done?"

David smiled calmly and shrugged: "It may take me a few years to complete it~"

"However, I plan to complete some chapters first and then find an opportunity to ask Professor Paul Samuelson to help me take a look."

"Oh? Paul?"

Old Morgan was not surprised. He nodded slightly and asked, "You want to go to Hawaii just to see him?"

"Yes!"

"How much time do I have?" David raised his wrist and asked half-jokingly.

"Hehe~"

Old Morgan found himself a comfortable position to relax and said with a smile: "About... 40 minutes."

"Ok!"

David rubbed his cheeks with both hands a few times, quickly sorted out his thoughts in his head, stood up, walked to the side of the globe, and said.

"When I studied historical data on demand and supply, I found that an important factor in the occurrence of sustained high inflation is the high growth rate of money supply energy."

"So, as long as we define inflation as the phenomenon of sustained and rapid rise in price levels, we will very much agree with Professor Friedman's conclusion."

"That is: Inflation is a monetary phenomenon no matter when or where it is, without exception!"

"But~"

“Although we know the causes of sustained high inflation, if we don’t understand the process and reasons for inflationary monetary policy, we still cannot understand the causes of sustained high inflation.”

"Every one of us knows that an economic environment under high inflation is not a good thing~"

"But why do we still encounter so many cases of inflation?"

“Why does the government adopt inflationary monetary policy?”

“Are these policies another important factor in causing inflation?”

"The answer is yes!"

David raised his hand to unbutton his coat, and after letting himself feel more relaxed, he smiled and said, "Actually, in the past twenty years..."

“The government always simply pursues the goal of high employment rates without paying much attention to the fact that its policies may cause inflation!”

“Especially in the past decade or so, starting from the era of President Kennedy’s administration, the administration of President Lyndon Johnson + the administration of President Nixon + the administration of President Ford + the administration of President Warren White~”

"Most of the relevant policies introduced by these governments are to...get more electoral votes, to gain their trust, and to win the election~"

"This has caused the government to blindly pursue high employment rates, causing monetary policy to tighten and loosen, interest rates to rise and fall, and prices and government fiscal expenditures to rise steadily, while government fiscal revenue has steadily declined."

“So, judging from the government’s stabilization policy of actively increasing the employment rate, it may cause two types of inflation~”

“Cost-PushInflation is a monetary phenomenon!”

"It is usually caused by negative supply policy shocks or workers' demands for higher wages."

"The Employment Act of 1946 and the Humphrey Hawkins Act enacted this year both legally require the government to have a responsibility to increase employment levels."

"But if the government and the Federal Reserve do not try adaptive policies with high money supply growth rates, cost-push inflation will not happen."

“Demand-pullinflation~”

"It's also called Phillips curve inflation."

"It was first proposed by Keynes~"

"Keynes believed that only when aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply and opens an expansion gap will the price level generally continue to rise."

“That is: pursuing too few goods with too much money.”

“But from the perspective of the government’s efforts to continuously increase the employment rate~”

“Due to the contradictions and frictions between supply and demand in the labor market, demand and matching between workers and employers are hindered.”

"Therefore, even in a state of full employment, unemployment will still exist~"

"For example: an unemployed electrical engineer in California has no way of knowing in time that there are jobs in New York and that he is urgently needed..."

(A few hundred words are omitted here...)

"Also, the actual relationship between the government's budget deficit and fiscal revenue and inflation... is also a reason for the introduction of inflationary monetary policy."

"If the government wants to cover the fiscal deficit by increasing the stock of national debt held by the public..."

"Then the monetary base and the money supply will not be greatly affected."

“But if the government is not raising money by increasing the stock of Treasury bonds held by the public, then both the money base and the money supply will increase!”

(Skip a few hundred words~)

"So, as long as the government's budget deficit still exists, the government wants to continue to print money to cover the budget deficit, and continue this process."

"It will inevitably lead to continued inflation!"

(Skip a few hundred words~)

"So, now that we know what the root causes of inflation are, let's try to explain it using existing history and data."

"Why has the inflation rate in the United States remained high for more than ten years from 1960 to the present~"

"If you agree, inflation is a monetary phenomenon..."

“The inflation that occurred during this period can be attributed to the excessive growth of the money supply!”

“Then what factors caused the money supply growth rate to rise too quickly during this period?”

"The two factors we know are: the government's pursuit of high employment goals and its continued implementation of deficit policies."

"But for the factor of deficit policy, how do we explain it clearly and clearly..."

"This has always been a point of disagreement between government workers and economists."

"So... let's put it aside for now and think about what else is there?"

"Obvious!"

"In order to achieve..."

. . .

At this time, David felt that he had completely let go~

He seemed to have transformed into a chirping bird, "flying" in the sky, freely releasing the knowledge he learned from books in his previous life + his many understandings ~

Time flies by~

In the blink of an eye, more than half an hour passed.

David licked his dry lips with great satisfaction, sat down opposite Old Morgan again, spread his hands and smiled.

"From more than ten years ago to the present, the governments formed by multiple presidents have failed to establish an image of an anti-inflation fighter or a respected government image in front of the public."

"Because they always implement... discretionary and adaptive policies, aiming to achieve high employment and ensure that their support rate will not decrease."

“Therefore, if the new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of America wants to solve this big problem, he must adopt tougher measures and establish his own tough image and stance, so that he can fully give the market and the public confidence and lead them out of the trough~”

David looked at Old Morgan, whose face was calm, his brows were furrowed, and he was deep in thought, and his voice suddenly became very low.

"Just like...many people mentioned it a few years ago~"

"The Federal Reserve, if it wants to curb inflation from continuing to rise, should follow the advice of Theodore Roosevelt."

"Carrot + stick!"

"But... times have changed now~"

"Carrot is no longer the carrot it used to be."

"Of course you can't use a big stick..."

"Hehe~"

"..."

Old Morgan gently twisted his right hand, looked at David, and suddenly asked: "How about you... take a temporary job at the New York Fed?"

"Forehead..?!"

David rubbed his cheeks with his hands, smiled and asked, "What kind of false position?"

"assistant researcher."

"assistant.."

"Tsk~"

"I think it might be better to change the name."

"Change?"

Old Morgan couldn't help laughing and asked with interest: "What's your name?"

"Um.."

David pretended to tilt his head and thought for a moment, then said with a wicked smile: "Fed Observer ~ What do you think?"

"...Hahahaha~"

Old Morgan pointed at David with his hand, laughed and shook his head slightly: "Do you want to use that rule formula that has not been repeatedly tested to predict interest rates?"

"Yes!"

David patted his face confidently, put away his smile, and nodded seriously.

"I believe that as long as there is a hard-line Fed Chairman, the trend of interest rates will definitely be similar to the results calculated by my formula!"

"And I can tell you responsibly!"

"This simple formula, after repeated fine-tuning and verification, will definitely become the main test method for the Fed and major Wall Street companies and institutions to adjust monetary interest rates in the next few decades!"

"Because it has two very important basic uses!"

"The first use is to test whether the interest rate target is too loose or too tight."

"Another use is to assess the direction of future interest rate policy."

"However... these must be based on the complete marketization of interest rates, and then there will be sufficient conditions to use it."

"If the Federal Reserve cannot liberalize interest rates and fully marketize them, I think this set of rules and formulas can only serve as a basis for research and reference~"

"..." Old Morgan looked at the "sad" expression on David's face and shook his head feeling speechless.

"How long are you going on vacation to Hawaii?"

"At least...two weeks!"

"it is good!"

"Then at the end of next month, you will report to the New York Fed!"

"I'll have someone make arrangements for you in advance..."

"..."

David didn't expect that. .Old Morgan actually means it! ?

He smiled and asked hesitantly: "Are you... not joking?"

"of course not!"

Old Morgan rubbed his forehead with his hands and whispered: "You came up with the rules and formulas yourself... Do you still want others to verify it for you?"

"Uh...I understand!"

"Then I have a temporary job at the New York Fed and I have money. Can I get it?"

"money?"

"You still want the New York Fed to pay you a salary?"

"That's not true..."

"I just want those companies or banks that are going to get forecast data from me to get what they deserve. It's just hard-earned money~"

"..." Old Morgan looked at "money-crazy" David with some dumbfounding, pointed at the door of the study, and spat out angrily.

"Fuck off!"

"Hey~" David jumped up from the chair, rubbed his fingers happily towards old Morgan, and said with a smile.

"Less than six figures...I won't do it!"

"..." Old Morgan rolled his eyes and waved his hand in disgust to "drive away" the shameless David. .

. . .

David, gone.

In the study, silence returned.

Old Morgan leaned back in his chair, silently recalling what David had just said, with a smile on his lips.

There must be something better in this kid’s head!

hehe~

----

new York.

Manhattan, in front of Wildfire Bar on 42nd Street.

Yuri Orlov, with a troubled expression, lingered not far from the bar for a long time before gritting his teeth and making up his mind, he walked into the bar.

ten minutes later.

The little Zach led Yuri Orlov out of the bar with a smile, went to the auxiliary police office across the street, and met Superintendent Oston, who had just come to work and was still hot from sitting on his buttocks.

Auston has met Yuri more than once.

After listening to the introductions of the two, he glanced at Yuri strangely and asked the little Zach.

"This Marat, belongs to the Brighton Beach gang?"

"It should be~"

"That's where Michael Franzese managed it a few years ago."

"But in recent years, a large number of immigrants from the Bear Country have come there and formed their own gangs. Michael Franzese rarely goes there~"

The little Zach leaned forward and continued in a lower voice.

"I heard that he has always been very dissatisfied with Brighton Beach~"

"There's absolutely no money to be made from that place..."

"The area managed by Poly...the area near Konidi Airport is a good place to make money!"

"Hehe~"

Auston smiled and raised his eyebrows and joked: "Yeah~"

"That's why that guy Paulie was implicated in the Lufthansa robbery and will have no choice but to die in prison~"

"Hahahaha~"

"That's his bad luck! Who can blame him?"

"Unlucky?"

Auston seemed to know something inside, and his smile became more playful~

The little Zach obviously didn't know the "gossip" here. He tilted his head and looked at Yuri and asked in a low voice.

"How's it going? Can you help him?"

"..Can!"

"However, I once heard my colleagues mention that...the Bear Nation immigrant gang that hangs out in Brighton Beach hates the police very much."

"If I were to come forward to solve this kind of thing, it might leave some hidden dangers!"

"Oh~" Little Zach felt that Auston was right, nodded and stopped talking.

Yuri licked his lips anxiously, and was about to say something when he heard Auston speak again.

"Why don't you invite that Marat over and let Ludy meet and talk with him?"

"Forehead.."

The little Zach curled his lips, shrugged and said, "Okay~ I'll call Ludy and give it a try."

"Thanks, buddy!"

"You're welcome~"

. . .

Yuri and the two left.

Alston stood at the window of his office and stared at the two people after they entered the bar, feeling an inexplicable feeling in his heart. .A little uncomfortable~

Yuri's family is responsible for running a restaurant, but there is no good way to help him solve the gang trouble~

This feeling of powerlessness is really special. . ! !

ps: Observer of the Federal Reserve Bank of America, this job was not made up by me. .

Instead, there are actually people working at the Federal Reserve, employed by major banks or institutions on Wall Street to help them predict the Federal Reserve's decision in each interest rate adjustment cycle.

The average salary of these people is at least six figures, rice dollars!

If you are an observer with reliable predictions, your annual income can reach hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars. .

And, all they do is part-time jobs!

So, these people are here. .

Emm. .

There are too many, I can’t say any more~

Please make up your own mind~