Manhattan Reborn 1978

new York.

Wildfire Bar, 42nd Street, Manhattan.

After David had the luggage and entourage of Gerald, Karnes and Holm placed at the Plaza Hotel, all three of them said they would come to his home to have a look~

so. .

in the bar.

David stood at the bar and skillfully prepared one of his best creations for the three of them: the rainbow cocktail~

"Please, three of you~"

"Haha~"

"Hmm~ It looks beautiful~"

"how did you do it?"

"It's a... secret!"

"Cut~"

Jellal and Kanes both picked up the wine glasses with disdain and took a long sip. They suddenly felt that the various flavors in their mouths were constantly colliding and washing their taste buds. .

Sour + sweet, slightly bitter + slightly cool, mint + kumquat + cranberry and other fruit flavors, the layers are very clear ~

But after all the wine was mixed in the mouth and swallowed, it gradually became less distinct. .

Still want to drink! ?

"This..." Jellal drank up the rainbow cocktail with a tilt of his neck.

Then he raised the glass and asked David: "This tastes a little different from the one you made when we were in London?"

"Of course!"

David shrugged his shoulders, quickly cleaned the cocktail shaker, and explained to the three of them.

"This cup is called Rainbow, but it has more than seven taste levels..."

"When we were in London, we lacked many of the bartending ingredients that were added this time, so you can feel the obvious difference in taste~"

"Oh~" Jellal looked at the busy David with interest and asked with a smile.

"It's only morning!"

"Are you going to get us all drunk?"

"Hahaha~ No way!"

"Wait a minute, I want you to help me come up with ideas~"

"What's your idea?" Kanes asked curiously.

David tilted his head and glanced at Old Rhett who was not far away, and said with a smile: "It's all because of that show!"

"I only recorded half of it the night before, and I couldn't continue recording..."

"Ah~" Kanes said in a long voice, shook his head and smiled~

Holm also drank the rainbow cocktail in his hand and continued to ask cooperatively: "In this episode, you should talk about...inflation, right?"

"Yes~"

"You're right...?"

David stopped what he was doing and thought about it. .

Then he took out a bottle of Black Island whiskey from the wine cabinet behind him, poured a cup for each of the three, then placed it in front of them and asked.

"What if: I don't know if all three of you have drunk this kind of wine~ This is the first time we've met!"

"Then I want you to become consumers of this kind of wine. I will give you this glass and try it. Will you accept it?"

Jellal, Karnes and Holm looked at each other and nodded.

"Of course~"

“Who wouldn’t accept the opportunity to taste good wine for free?”

"Ok!"

David smiled and motioned for the three of them to drink the wine.

The three of them all picked up the cups, smelled them, and drank them in one gulp~

David took back the cups from the three of them with a smile, and continued to ask: "What if I told you now that the sip of Black Island whiskey I just took was priced at 80 meters!"

"Would you like a second drink?"

"No!" Karnes was the first to say, shaking his head.

Jellal tilted his head and glanced at Holm, then thought for a moment: "Okay... give me another drink!"

"I don't want it either~" Holm's eyes showed more curiosity and gave his own answer.

"ok~"

"This... is one of the problems I have to face now!"

"Free + limited edition programs, everyone likes to watch them..."

"But it is undeniable that some people like it ~ and some people don't care + sneer at it..."

"But what if I have to charge?"

"The price charged is very expensive?"

"For example: My next program will not talk about inflation... it will talk about other things, and it will be priced at 200 million pounds for limited sales!"

"Which one of you three is willing to buy it?"

"..."

Gerald, Kanes and Holm have different expressions and a good understanding of each other. .Remaining silent, waiting for David's next words~

"Hehe~"

David didn't pay attention to the three people's reactions at all. He opened the wine bottle in his hand, poured the underworld whiskey into the cups the three people had just used, pushed them in front of the three people, and said again.

"Next question!"

"Rainbow is 40 meters, Black Island is 80 meters."

“The Wildfire Bar also has a variety of cocktails you’ve never tasted before!”

"Suppose: I tell you Rainbow + Black Island + an unknown cocktail, the total price is 119 yuan."

"Which one will you choose from these three choices?"

"Huh?!" Karnes and Holm were surprised at David's new question almost at the same time~

Jellal looked down at the Black Island whiskey in his hand, quickly caught an important point in his mind, and asked: "The price of the three types of wine added up is cheaper than buying two types of wine alone..."

"Are you... a price trap?!"

"That unknown cocktail is free?"

"Hehe~"

David crossed his arms on his chest, tilted his head and smiled and asked, "Give me your answer!"

"Which one do you choose?"

"I..." Jellal was speechless~

Kanes turned to look at Jellal, and said with a smile: "I choose the final combination package!"

"ok~"

"What about you, Holm?"

"The third!"

"Hmm~"

David nodded with satisfaction, looked at Jellal again, and explained: "You have tasted the rainbow cocktail and the underworld whiskey~"

"The combined price of the two of them is 120 yuan!"

“And the third choice I gave added a cocktail that you have never had before, but the price is cheaper...”

"Jeral, you are right!"

“This is a very clever price bait~”

"But have you ever thought about it, there is a deeper...trap here!"

"In 1973, Professor Kahneman and Professor Tversky jointly published an experimental plan~"

"In 74, the two of them passed a series of social survey plans, which further proved the views they proposed."

"Anchoring effect!"

"The anchoring effect means that when people need to make quantitative estimates of an event, they will use certain values ​​as the starting value. The starting value acts like an anchor and restricts the estimated value~"

"So, when making decisions, you will unconsciously give too much weight to the information you initially obtained."

"Anchoring refers to people's tendency to associate future estimates with past estimates and to be susceptible to the advice of others."

"When people estimate the quality of something, there is no absolute sense of good or bad~"

"Everything is relative!"

"The key depends on how you position the base point of judgment!"

"Basic point positioning is like an anchor. Once it is set, your sensory evaluation system will also be set."

"Just like the price you were first informed about just now was 80 meters for Black Island Whiskey."

"It serves as a price base point in your cognitive + judgment system~"

"So, when you make a choice, most of you will use information that you are familiar with, or information that can be constructed by imagination, and give an excessive weight of decision-making trust to information that is easy to see and easy to remember."

"For example, investors, in the decision-making process, place too much emphasis on the information they know or can easily obtain, while neglecting to pay attention to other information for in-depth exploration, thus causing bias in judgment."

"But what you don't know is..."

"Among these three options, the one that is the most rational and most consistent with the law of consumption and income is Black Island Whiskey!"

"Because the rainbow cocktail + the unknown cocktail cost 40 yuan in total, I made a lot of money~"

"That's not to mention the extra tip you gave me after you tasted the set cocktail and felt very satisfied..."

David picked up the cocktail shaker again, waved it around in front of the three people, and said with a smile: "It's like... if you deliberately put a few green leaves on the fruit plate, people will feel it is very fresh~"

"If you install an open glass kitchen in a restaurant, people will think it is clean and hygienic...the same!"

"People will always put more trust in knowable and visible information."

"Coupled with the blessing of the anchoring effect, there are many stubborn people around us~"

"What's more, people who are stubborn to the extreme may also develop paranoid personality and other symptoms of mental illness..."

David raised his index finger to the three of them and said with a smile: "The root cause of the anchoring effect is mainly the role people play in obtaining first-hand reference information."

"The information comparison between the temporarily selected anchor points in people's minds and the selected goals will cause people to have psychological prediction and selection bias, and will have a significant impact on the final results."

"This is foreseeable... the information-obtained decision-making bias~"

“This is also one of the strategies that flexibly combines psychology + social behavior + economics!”

"Now!"

"If you had to choose again~"

"Do you still think that spending 200 million pounds to buy a limited edition program around the world is not a good deal?"

"..."

Carnes, Jellal, and Holm were silent for a few seconds. .

They all showed contempt in unison and raised their middle fingers to David. .

"Hahahaha~" David smiled proudly~

. . .

At the entrance of the bar.

Laura opened the door and walked into the bar alone~

She looked around, nodded and smiled at the steel-toothed dog Mengo and Zac brothers sitting at the table by the door, and pointed in the direction of the bar.

The little Zach raised his eyebrows, jumped off the chair, walked to Laura, pointed in the direction of the bar, and whispered: "Yes!"

"They are the friends that the boss picked up from the airport~"

"Oh~ thank you!"

"Hehe~ You're welcome!"

Laura glanced at the backs of Jellal and the other three, thought for a moment, walked towards the bar, and shouted to David.

"Hey~ why don't you go home!?"

"I've been waiting for you for a long time!"

"Uh... you little tail! What do you want from me?"

"Haha~ Looking for you to play with!? What else can I do?"

"Tch~ I knew you were up to no good with me!"

David waved to Laura with a look of disgust on his face, and introduced to the three of Jellal: "This is Laura, my little tail!"

"This is Gerald, Canes and Holm."

"I went to the airport to pick them up this morning..."

"Oh~ Hello!"

Laura squeezed out a "sunshine girl" smile and waved to the three of them. .

Then she walked around the bar, moved a stool from Old Rhett, sat next to David, and looked at him with a bored expression. .

A smirk appeared on Jellal's lips, he touched Karnes with his elbow, and asked in a very low voice: "Is it her?"

"..Um!"

"Hehe~"

Jellal couldn't help laughing when he looked at the "ghostly look" of embarrassment and some loss on Kanes's face. .

Holm, who had always had a low sense of presence, tilted his head and glanced at the two of them, holding back a smile and asked David: "You asked us to give you advice... You don't want us to spend money to buy yours." Program, right?"

"of course not!"

David put his hand on Laura's head and smiled pretendingly: "The sponsorship fee for this episode of my show is 200 million pounds!"

"For the next issue... I will start shooting from 200 million pounds!"

“The one with the highest price gets it first!”

"what?"

"are you crazy?"

"Who would give you so much sponsorship money?"

"Hahaha~"

David raised his eyebrows mysteriously: "Sorry!"

"The sponsorship fee for this issue has been received~"

"...fxxx!" Kanes was very surprised and choked out a curse word~

Laura shook her head, glanced at Kanes, and then said with a bad smile: "Haha~"

"Your show hasn't been recorded yet!"

"Tsk~ You're the only one talking too much!"

"Oh~ you dare to hit me on the head...?"

"Hehe~"

"I should have beaten you silly earlier! I would have saved you from being harassed every day..."

Laura grinded her little silver teeth back and forth, her eyes widened, she threw away David's hand angrily, jumped up and hung it around his neck, then opened her mouth and bit his ear. .

"fxxx!"

"Ah~"

"Stop biting...it hurts! It hurts!"

"Ugh~ I dare you to hit me again!"

At the bar, Laura, the "sunshine girl" who actually knew how to bite, used a long-lost trick. .The ants climbed up the tree, causing David to scream in pain, but there was nothing he could do~

"..."

Not far away from where the two were "fighting", Old Rhett took a few steps back happily, folding his arms and watching the fun. .

The three Geralds outside the bar also imitated Old Rhett's example, stood up and took a few steps back, stretching their necks to watch the excitement. .

Even the steel-toothed dogs Mengo and Zac brothers sitting at the door of the bar came over with gossipy and curious faces, stood on the chairs, and commented in a low voice on the "fight" that broke out between David and Laura. With. .

. . .

Twenty minutes later.

David covered his ears with one hand, slapped Laura on the forehead with the other hand, and "reprimanded" with a grin on his face. .

"Reasonable?!"

"Are you going to bite someone if you can't talk?"

"Where's your brain?"

"Is this filled with... apple pie?"

"Is this what I've been teaching you these past few days?"

Laura’s face was red, her eyes were wide open, and her teeth were clenching: “…”

Gerald, Carnes, and Holm sat back at the bar: "..."

David curled his lips in a very pretentious manner: "I'll ask you again!"

"Three people went to a hotel to book a room. The price was 30 yuan, and each of them paid 10 yuan."

"Later, the hotel owner called the waiter and asked him to refund 5 meters to the three people, but he only received 25 meters."

"The waiter stood at the door of the three people's room, secretly took 5 meters from the 2 meters, and only gave the three people 1 meter each, and told them that this was a discounted price given by the boss."

"However, after the three people accepted 1 meter, each person only spent 9 meters, 3x9 = 27 meters, plus the 2 meters that the waiter secretly took away, the total is 29 US dollars."

“Q: Where did the remaining 1 meter go?!”

"do you know?"

"Forehead.."

Laura rolled her big eyes, tilted her head, thought for a moment, and shouted: "I study philosophy... Mathematics is not my strong point!"

"Hehe~"

David sneered twice, turned to Jellal and the other three and asked, "What about you? Do you know the answer?"

"..."

Jellal blinked a few times and turned to look at Karnes. .

Karnes was stunned for a few seconds, then looked at Holm beside him with a smirk: "Hey~ you must know the answer, right?"

Holm crossed his arms, looked at David with a frown, thought seriously for a moment, and said, "Are you... setting a trap in the question?"

"The 27 meters that the three people paid included the 25 meters that the boss received + the 2 meters that the waiter stole..."

"Add in the 3 meters of yuan in the hands of the three people, it is exactly 30 meters of yuan!"

"Hahahaha~"

"Clap~Clap~Clap~"

David glanced at Jellal in surprise, applauded Holm for such a witty answer, and smiled.

"That's right!"

"This is to use people's curiosity + thinking inertia to secretly change the most critical points in the problem and set up a thinking trap!"

"I call it... an intellectual swerve, or a mental swerve!"

"But if you use it in different places, the effect will be unimaginable."

"For example: use it in business negotiations, marketing, financial investment and other fields..."

"Hehe~"

"Do you think there are many people with Holm's wit who can quickly see through the thinking traps?"

Laura + Jellal + Canes all turned to look at Holm.

Holm pursed his lips and frowned, and then David asked: "Is this the direction you... want to study in depth?"

"That's right!"

"It is also the behavioral economics that combines psychology + social behavior + economics that I will focus on in future programs!"

David raised his hand and rubbed his ears, and rolled his eyes at "Little Tail" Laura angrily. .

It seemed a little distressed again. .He pulled her over and rubbed her forehead with his hands, and said.

"It doesn't hurt, right?"

"..Um!"

"Hehe~"

He kissed Laura on the cheek with a smile, turned around and smiled at Gerald and the others: "Behavioral economics is not a new branch of discipline in mainstream economics."

"It's just that it has been silent for more than 50 years since the 20s~"

"In my opinion, the biggest difference between behavioral economics and traditional economics is the organic combination of behavioral analysis theory + economic operating rules + psychology + economic science~"

“Use it to discover errors or omissions in economic models, and then correct the shortcomings of mainstream economics’ basic assumptions about human rationality, self-interest, complete information, utility maximization and consistent preferences.”

David moved a few steps back and forth in the bar, letting Laura sit on a high stool, lying behind him, and letting her act as a "girly cushion". .

Then, he continued to speak to the three of Jellal with a smile.

“The experimental content of behavioral economics that I want to study can be found everywhere in people’s daily lives~!”

"It will use examples of various choices in people's daily lives as experimental content, directly challenging several key assumptions of traditional economics."

"For example: Many traders on Wall Street will immediately sell their stocks after receiving a certain investment income to ensure that the book gains turn into actual gains!"

"Their eagerness to confirm returns may be seen as a very successful choice by many investors~"

"but!"

"We all know that when they sell stocks and gain profits, they also lose the opportunity to gain greater profits~"

David spread his hands to the three of them and said with a smile: "Anyone can have the idea of ​​​​taking a gamble!"

"But people cannot equate the happiness of gaining 100 meters with the pain of losing 100 meters from a psychological level~"

"For example: I once found a number of drinkers in a bar and played the same game with them!"

"Guess the coin!"

"We might as well try it out too!"

David took out a coin from the bar, bounced it in the air and spun it countless times, then caught it and held it in his hand, and said to the three of them.

"I'll take charge~"

"There are four of us, each of us has the same chips, 5 meters!"

"You guessed it right, I'll give you 1 meter!"

"You guessed wrong, please give me 1 meter!"

"Come on, guess!"

Jellal frowned slightly and stared at David's hand, saying nothing. .

Kanes glanced left and right, smiled, took David's hand, asked him to press the coin on the bar, and said with a smile: "I guess, heads!"

Holm looked serious and thought hesitantly: "Me too...frontal!"

"Hehe~"

David looked at Jellal again and asked, "What about you?"

"It's also a front?"

Jellal glanced at Laura, who poked her little head out from behind David, and suddenly smiled: "Laura, help me guess~"

"..Um?!"

"you sure?"

"Sure!"

Laura lay on David's shoulder, stared at his hand and thought for a while, nodded seriously and said: "Front!"

"I guess, head on!"

"ok~"

David raised his palm without any delay, and all five people's eyes fell on the coin. .

"...the other way around!?"

"Did you win?" Laura's voice of surprise and pity sounded in David's ears.

David smiled, raised a finger to indicate to the three of them, grabbed the coin again, and re-entered the next round~

. . .

After about 10 minutes.

With the hard work and help of Laura, the "foreign aid", Jellal was the first to lose all 5 meters of chips and was successfully eliminated!

Canes, won 1 million yuan.

Holm, lost $1m.

David, won 3 yuan~

Laura, a little discouraged. .

She pursed her lips, lay next to David's ear, and asked in a very small voice: "You... cheated?"

"Haha~ How is that possible!?"

"How about you come and take over for me?"

"..good!"

As David chuckled, Laura took the coin and threw it into the air, but failed to catch it. .

"..Hahaha~"

David couldn't help laughing, and handed Laura another coin, asking her to throw it again. .

Holm, who had been silent all this time, coughed lightly and said, "Ahem~ David, let's not play anymore!"

"Oh?" David pressed Laura's little head with interest and asked.

"You see it?"

"..Um!"

Holm turned to look at Karnes and said.

"Without Jellal, the probability of the two of us beating the dealer is even lower..."

Karnes raised his eyebrows, looked at Jellal and asked, "Have you guessed it?"

"...a little bit!" Jellal replied honestly.

He looked at David again and asked curiously: "Is this the most commonly used gambling probability question in casinos?"

"That's right!"

David shrugged, crossed his arms and smiled: "There is another kind of thing most commonly used in casinos... a vague probability trap set for gamblers!"

"For example: roulette is the most common game in American casinos."

"A small ball + 16 black squares + 16 red squares + 2 green squares!"

"It's different from the roulette wheel in Europe, it only has one green grid~"

"So, it greatly reduces the probability of winning for gamblers!"

David scratched Laura's broken hair hanging down by his ear, raised three fingers to the three of them, and smiled.

“The behavior of traders choosing to leave the market with a profit and make a profit is what I call the psychological effect of certain returns in behavioral economics~”

"People have different psychological feelings between gains and losses...I call it the loss aversion effect~"

“People are irrationally obsessed with low-probability bets.”

"Or in the case of fuzzy probability, you still can't get rid of the influence of the anchoring effect, and you make a major decision based on your accumulated experience, or the information you can construct with your imagination."

"I call it, the law of representation in behavioral economics."

"That is: in situations of uncertainty, people will seize a certain feature of the problem and directly infer the result, without considering the true probability of the occurrence of this feature and other reasons related to the feature."

David smiled and put away three fingers, shrugged, and said with a smile: "The term representative law was first proposed by an engineer who graduated in sociology in 74."

"I just borrowed its concept and used it~"

"However, we all know that in the financial trading market, it is the existence of this seemingly irrational representative law that causes the vast majority of investors to lose money."

"In traditional economics, the rational person assumption of rationality + self-interest... rarely appears in real trading markets..."

"Because, when everyone in the market faces an objectively identical problem, they receive completely different information descriptions."

"That's why they make completely opposite decisions and judgments."

"Just like the futures market, it is the largest casino in the world!"

“In futures trading, long orders and short orders correspond to each other, so that you can close your position and make a profit!”

"So...who is going long? Who is going short?"

"What they are fighting about again is...what?"

Jellal, Karnes, and Holm all understood the key points of David's words.

According to the plan discussed by several people in London, they want to make a huge fortune in the gold spot and futures markets. .

But who is the person betting against them?

Why do they go short?

Since it is gambling, there will definitely be a winner~

How about winning?

Lose, so what?

After David asked these questions to the three people, he also asked himself a new question in his mind.

Is there a banker in this gambling game?

Who is he/she? ?