Manhattan Reborn 1978

Blue Crystal Hotel, top floor.

Seamus Norton, led by Nylent Ramon, knocked on the door of the room.

When Old Morgan saw the old man coming, he stood up and walked towards him with a smile and said: "I hope this heavy rain does not bring you any trouble~"

"Haha~ It's okay~ It was just some minor troubles and they have been solved!"

Old Morgan nodded, and he and Seamus came to the sofa, sat down respectively, and motioned to David to sit down.

"David Coleman, the boy you've always wanted to meet~"

Seamus Norton looked up and down at David, who was sitting upright: "I am Seamus Norton!"

David stood up again politely, nodded and greeted: "Hello Mr. Norton! I am David Coleman~"

"I know you!"

"How was your chat just now? Where did it go?"

Old Morgan smiled and shook his head: "I want to invite him to join Stanley's strategic decision-making team as a consultant, and I also want to become a friend who talks about everything with him. Now he is still considering it."

"Oh?"

Seamus felt that he might have arrived a little late and missed something.

He looked at David with a smile: "You guys go on, I've asked Nyrent to help us prepare lunch~"

"If you still need some time, we can continue after lunch..."

David crossed the fingers of his hands and placed them on his lap, clenching and unclenching, clenching and unclenching.

Old Morgan and Seamus both patiently kept quiet, wanting to know what choice David would make.

After a few minutes.

David leaned forward, propped his elbows on his knees, clasped his fingers together, frowned and asked Old Morgan: "I have some very clear plans for my future."

"But now I don't think I can be so valued by you."

"If we only look at these two things, the relief fund and the Langlao Gold forecast, they are far from enough~!"

"So, why?"

Seamus heard some confusion and confusion from David's words.

He adjusted his sitting posture with great interest, preparing to be a spectator outside the venue, eating melons and seeds. .

Old Morgan raised his hand and gently pulled the clothes around the fistula. After thinking for a while, he asked a question: "You have already met Otis Parker."

"He should have also told you about...silver."

"So David, what do you think about silver?"

"You also know...the Hunter brothers..."

Old Morgan smiled and glanced at the melon-eater Seamus, and nodded simply: "I know~ Since they chose to continue to silently hoard silver spot and futures after the Mexican government sold off silver a few years ago, I have guessed some of their thoughts. Got it!"

He watched the surprise flash in David's eyes and continued with a smile: "Frank David?"

“The first condition for gaining a person’s complete trust is to be honest with the other person!”

"If you have any questions, you can ask."

"As long as it's an answer I can give you, I won't hold anything back~!"

David made several small moves in succession to keep himself clear-headed. After thinking for a while, he asked a somewhat surprising question.

"You just talked about your health problems..."

"Also, I said that I would get engaged to Lilith before Christmas, and you didn't object. Laura is only 18 years old. Isn't it too early?"

"why?"

"It's because of your time...already..."

Old Morgan glanced at Seamus who was suppressing a smile in surprise, cleared his throat and said, "Are you worried that I don't have much time?"

"Are you afraid that my sudden death will disrupt your future plans like JP Morgan?~"

"Hehe~"

David opened his mouth, feeling if the old man meant the word "candid". .Are there any misunderstandings?

Morgan Sr. shrugged: "My doctor told me that if I could move to a warm place in the south, it would be good for my physical recovery and my heart."

“My wife Neria and I talked about it and decided that we would spend the winter over there in Houston every year.”

"When will I go to see God...I don't know~"

"The doctor's words are not entirely accurate."

"According to my own feelings... I should be fine if I live for another ten years~"

"About your engagement to Lilith~"

Old Morgan glanced at David: "Laura is still young, but Lilith's age... is not young anymore~"

"In the past two years, many people have brought up the issue of Lilith in front of me..."

"David, I can't always say no to everyone~"

"I understand~" David nodded and indicated that you can continue. .

Old Morgan continued: "Personally, I don't like Wall Street now!"

"When I was young, a few years ago, I still wanted to live in New York..."

"But in recent years, I have found more and more that people here have changed silently~"

"The professional ethics and professional ethics that people once recognized have now been slowly and selectively forgotten by people!"

"In the past, the friendship and credibility that people recognized and cared about were betrayed and abandoned by people again and again when faced with interests!"

"Today's Wall Street, as long as you want to make a profit, you can use any means, you can betray your trust, you can abandon your family, friends, etc., just to chase and satisfy your desire for money~"

"They have forgotten their original intention and bottom line when they first entered Wall Street and worked in finance."

"There is no bottom line, so they only care about making money for themselves and don't care about what's behind them...the flood is raging~"

"David, I said it before - capital is more important than money, but the most important thing is your character!"

"For you, this sentence means that you are still young and very dazzling, and you also have your own principles and bottom line!"

"Whether you are dealing with the Sidrich family or your friends around you, you have your own rules of conduct, hoping to help them, and hope that you will not be changed just because of a little success!"

“Among them, you sent that girl from Miran to study at Columbia University!”

"Have you ever thought that she would add married in her student file and mark her husband: David Coleman?"

David's mouth felt a little dry. .

He picked up the juice cup, drank it all in one gulp, wiped his mouth and shook his head: "I... just think she hasn't figured out what she is doing~"

"I never thought about what happened to her?"

Old Morgan tilted his head curiously: "Is it because she... isn't beautiful?"

"No~ It's because I already have Susan~ I never thought I would have so many women~ or... lovers~"

"Women...too many emotional entanglements are too...troublesome for me~!"

"Uh...hahahaha~"

Old Morgan glanced at Seamus, and the two were amused by David's answer. .

Giles and Bloomer, among today's young people, are already considered leaders in finding girlfriends. .Alien. .

They didn't expect that David, who was only 21 years old this year, should be the age when he is most interested in beautiful girls, would say such things to them. .

Old Morgan smiled and shook his head. He smiled a lot today and was very happy.

"The Bonini Agreement, media groups, angel investments, venture capital, insurance companies, and later MBS, the depreciation of the rice dollar, and future economic development forecasts after the oil crisis, took the lead in choosing to deploy in high-tech industries such as computers, etc. ~"

"They are all surprises and accidents brought by you~"

"Angel investment and venture capital, their future development is very suitable for Morgan Stanley~"

"No one has ever thought of a media group setting up a TV station that broadcasts news 24 hours a day."

"There are also the latest insurance products that insurance companies are going to launch..."

Old Morgan briefly commented on all the businesses David took out one by one.

David just realized it now. .I seem to be struggling. .A little too much. . ?

No~!

How could he be sitting here chatting with old Morgan and playing frank games without doing so much business?

Maybe he wouldn’t even be on the list that old Morgan said, so damn~!

David is a bit confused now. .

But he soon figured out what he wanted.

Waiting quietly for Old Morgan to stop, he asked a question that he had never thought about.

"You also mentioned MBS just now. It has been around for nearly ten years...but why hasn't it been mentioned or brought out by people?"

Old Morgan and Seamus were silent.

The two of them looked at each other, and it was Old Morgan who said: "Nothing can be accomplished overnight!"

“The United States’ financial influence in the world is like this, and so is Wall Street’s financial status in the world.”

"Decades ago, the Bretton Woods system was proposed and determined to be an important turning point in the development of the world economy!"

“The Bretton Woods system gave the U.S. dollar a special status because of the strength of the U.S. gold reserves, the strength of the U.S. real economy, the strength of the U.S. manufacturing industry, the strength of the U.S. military, and the fulfillment of credit obligations by the U.S. What a powerful ability!”

"The rice dollar was once recognized as a hard currency around the world, an international currency that played an important role in international trade, the most important reserve foreign currency of various countries, and the anchor of stability for the world financial system."

“But as time goes by, under the post-Bretton Woods system, the dollar depreciates more and more frequently!”

“Especially in the past 20 years, the United States has begun to take advantage of the advantageous position brought by the rice dollar. On the one hand, it shares costs with other countries, and on the other hand, it draws resources from around the world to promote the development of the U.S. financial market, so as to continue to maintain its advantages. status."

"It exports inflation to the world and deprives other countries of their wealth through seigniorage."

“In fact, as the dollar depreciated faster and faster, inflation in the United States spread rapidly to other countries and regions, and the inflation rates in developed capitalist countries increased rapidly in 1972 and 1973. "

"In 1974, the inflation rate in 10 European industrial countries reached 13%."

"In mid-1960 the figure was only 2.5%."

"In the eight years from 1968 to 1975, consumer prices increased by 62% in the United States and Canada, 127% in the United Kingdom, 85% in France, 92% in Italy, 106% in the island countries, and 47% in Germany."

“In the era of floating exchange rates dominated by the US dollar, the US dollar has increasingly exploited developed countries in Europe and even the world.

"Under this situation, the international community will inevitably gradually form an impulse and tendency to break away from the rice dollar system and resist the rice dollar."

"For example, as world-wide inflation begins to emerge, exported from the United States."

"European countries and island countries face a dilemma. On the one hand, the U.S. dollar hurts their trade and has a negative impact on employment and investment."

"On the other hand, if they choose to stick to the policy of pegging the dollar to the dollar, their own currency will also depreciate, which may import inflation into the country and undermine the international competitiveness and growth of the country's economy."

David leaned back, frowning, and listened carefully to Old Morgan's explanation.

"The only feasible way for them is to achieve currency and trade union to stabilize each other's currencies, while implementing unified capital controls and tariffs to deal with the depreciation of the dollar."

"It is the poor financial policies of the United States and the greed of some people on Wall Street that further prompted Europeans to realize that they must unite and begin to boycott the dollar and strive to improve the status of their own currencies in the international currency market."

"If more and more countries and regions begin to gradually move away from the dollar system."

“The process of resisting the exploitation of the dollar will inevitably gradually erode the dominant position of the dollar formed and continued during the Bretton Woods era, and then completely end the dominant position of the dollar in the international financial market.”

"In addition, currency depreciation will help the export of domestic goods and reverse the trade deficit."

"However, U.S. trade after 1971 did not show a fundamental improvement with the depreciation of the dollar. Instead, trade conditions fluctuated dramatically compared to the trade conditions under the Bretton Woods system."

"Except for a surplus between 1973 and 1976, the traditional export items of the United States were in deficit in the rest of the years, and they continued to expand."

“At the same time, capital inflows from the U.S. financial sector continue to expand, basically in inverse proportion to the U.S. trade deficit.

“In other words, the surplus accumulated in foreign trade with the United States has basically turned into an inflow of capital into the U.S. market.

"A large part of it was converted into government bonds, corporate bonds, and various financial bonds and became the country's foreign exchange reserves."

"So, you once said that the rice dollar will continue to depreciate, and its international monetary influence will be further reduced. In addition, MBS has been mentioned again. Let me know that you should have also predicted some future developments and trends of Wall Street. . . ”

“David, when MBS was first proposed, it was not like no one knew its immense value.”

"I once suppressed many reports and proposals about MBS from Stanley's internal researchers and analysts and hid them in the snow~!"

Old Morgan picked up the coffee cup, moistened his throat, and continued.

"Theoretically, no country can survive by continuing to borrow money."

"Raising interest rates will cause the dollar to appreciate, stimulate imports, increase the import trade volume, and worsen the deficit."

“The way to cover the deficit is to attract large amounts of short-term capital inflows. Once short-term capital is injected less, you will be forced to issue more currency to support the trade deficit, triggering inflation.”

"You know the current inflation rate, unemployment rate, fiscal deficit, etc. in the United States."

"What you don't know is that the gold reserves consumed by the United States in both war and trade have dropped from 2.13 tons to 8800 tons when the Bretton Woods system disintegrated!"

"The rice dollar is no longer linked to gold, and the currencies of all countries in the world are no longer linked to the rice dollar. This is a major public breach of contract by the United States to all countries in the world!"

"Without decoupling and default, the United States cannot effectively solve the problem of excessive gold consumption."

"The Jamaica Agreement signed in 1976 abolished exchange rate parity and the central exchange rate of the dollar, and confirmed the floating exchange rate system. Member states can choose the exchange rate system on their own."

"Because of this agreement, the exchange rates of various countries in the world are actually no longer related to each other. The exchange rates of various countries, including currency issuance, completely depend on the country's credit. No one has restrictions on anyone, and this is even more true for the rice dollar. There are no constraints.”

"The United States, as the world's largest financial power, military power, and high-tech power, the dollar credit issued by it is endorsed by the US government!"

"In the past two years, the currency status of the rice dollar in the international financial market has been continuously reduced, and the rice dollar reserves of various countries have also been reduced to 70% to 80%!"

"In the short term, the depreciation of the rice dollar has become an established fact!"

"In the long term, the international currency status of the rice dollar will not be as pessimistic as people think!"

"In the era of credit currency, the United States has enough strength to endorse the value of the rice dollar!"

"but.."

Old Morgan looked at David, waiting for him to speak.

David slowly lowered his head, thinking about what old Morgan just said.

they. .It seems to have no structure, but it points directly to a real problem that the United States is facing now.

Cut off the connection between the rice dollar and gold and make the rice dollar a currency that is no longer measured in gold. It is no longer a "rice gold" that can be freely exchanged with gold!

After the 1976 Jamaica Agreement, the United States no longer had to worry about the balance between dollar issuance and gold reserves, and was freed from the constraints of the money printing press. .

If the U.S. government wants to solve its fiscal deficit, it needs to attract more hot money from the international market; depreciate the dollar, stimulate export trade, and alleviate employment pressure to a certain extent; and bind strategic energy commodities such as oil to all be settled in rice dollars. etc.

Now it seems that the binding of the dollar to oil has been basically determined.

Hot money in international financial markets. .

The emergence of mbs, is it? .Planned? ?Being manipulated?

David looked at Old Morgan and quickly thought about what Old Morgan might want to hear from him based on his memory. .

What will be the trend in the U.S. financial market in the future?

The emergence of MBS has loosened the restrictions on U.S. bank mortgage loans and precipitated funds.

A lot of international hot money will come to the United States to buy MBS related products.

The sales of MBS have in disguise promoted the growth of the real estate industry in the United States, promoted the sales enthusiasm of investment banks, banks, and bankers, promoted the emergence of CDOs, and promoted the gradual formation of a global gambling game.

MBS and CDO themselves are very good financial derivatives.

But. .They were used by some Wall Street bankers to play various new tricks, which eventually led to a world-wide collapse. .

Are the snowflakes innocent under the avalanche?

Maybe. .

The greater possibility is no!

Credit currency?

Now that the international currency exchange rate has just been floated, the rice dollar is tied to oil, and the credit influence of the rice dollar has not yet dropped below sea level. .

David thought for a while and then said: "To solve the stagflation problem faced by the country, the government must implement monetary tightening policies, increase bank interest rates, increase government subsidies, reduce various taxes, and support small and micro businesses. Mid-sized enterprise company development, entrepreneurship and more.”

"But if we do this, it will cause the U.S. government's fiscal deficit to increase significantly and the credit rating of the U.S. dollar to continue to decline."

"Until...the credit of the rice dollar is reduced to zero, and the value of the rice dollar is completely reduced from rice gold and credit rice dollar to...debt rice dollar!"

"In this process, the investment effect that MBS can play may seem very large, but in fact it is very small~"

"The financial policies that the United States wants to implement to solve stagflation will always change with the change of presidents."

When David said this, he stopped talking. .

Old Morgan's eyes flashed sharply for a moment, and then disappeared. .

He touched his beard with his hand and nodded: "Yes, judging from the current development, the short-term depreciation of the rice dollar has been determined. If we want to solve stagflation, we can only increase the fiscal deficit as you mentioned. Reducing the credit of the rice dollar, increasing bond issuance, and reducing taxes can ensure the value of the rice dollar and may even cause some appreciation of the rice dollar."

"But the MBS project is fundamentally based on home mortgage loans."

"If interest rates go up, mortgage rates will go up as well."

"Those who repay the loan can ensure that they have a stable income, which is not bad~"

"If they lose their jobs or cannot continue to repay the mortgage loan, the bad debt rate of this MBS will rise rapidly until...the day it collapses."

Old Morgan shook his head slightly and sighed: "I never believe that people can guard their greed, nor do I believe that these Wall Street bankers will not raise this MBS into a huge monster~"

David nodded in agreement: "Financial derivatives such as MBS will definitely be used by people and develop more financial instruments that can make profits for them~!"

"By then, the entire real estate industry, banking industry and other related industries in the United States will be stimulated by MBS and related financial products to create a huge economic bubble. The popularity of the real estate industry will create more people to join this feast. Come and get a piece of the pie.”

"These people who join later will no longer have any professional ethics and ethics~"

"They only see the immediate benefits and care about how much benefit they can get from this transaction and this loan!"

"And people with low incomes and unstable incomes who do not have the ability to buy houses will also become prey in the eyes of these people!"

"They will try their best to package these people who cannot afford to buy a house or pay a high mortgage loan into a customer with good credit, apply for a mortgage loan from a bank that has lost its bottom line, and then turn these people into Mortgage contracts are packaged into MBS and sold to anyone who wants to invest in them!"

"This seemingly beautiful bubble will grow bigger and bigger as time goes by, affecting more and more industries until it becomes a behemoth that can affect the world's financial markets~"

David leaned a little, shook his head and said softly: "A bubble is a bubble. When it bursts, everyone will pay for its collapse!"

Seamus, who was sitting aside, didn't understand the conversation between old Morgan and David.

What these two people said did not match up very well. .Or rather it is. .Constantly changing channels?

But it was this kind of chat that allowed the two of them to express their opinions and concerns about the United States, Wall Street, and this MBS. .

David Coleman!

This is. .A test for him?

This kid is not easy!