Rebirth 76: Industrial Internet Empire
Chapter 343: Sniping at Thai Baht
Sako Business Building, Sukhumvit Road, Bangkok, Zhiyuan Real Estate Bangkok Branch.
Yang Mo looked through the financial statements in his hand carelessly...
Han Xinyuan sat across from him uneasily, glancing at Yang Mo from time to time. This was his first time in charge of a company independently, and he was even more careful, for fear of something going wrong!
Yang Mo closed the folder in his hand and said with a smile: "Not bad! Every project is done in a down-to-earth manner, not eager for success and profit, not ambitious enough but more than steady..."
"Mr. Yang, are you praising me or criticizing me?" Han Xinyuan asked with a smile.
"What do you think?" Yang Mo asked.
Han Xinyuan thought for a while, scratched his head and said, "I think it's both!"
"Oh? Let's talk about it..."
"Being down-to-earth and steady, like Mr. Luo, may be more suitable for the manufacturing industry that is working hard and accumulating. The real estate industry should take a bigger step and use financial leverage as much as possible to expand rapidly. Although Zhiyuan Real Estate has unique funds and connections, Advantages, but in the past few years, under my leadership, the development speed is obviously not as good as that of several Japanese real estate companies, and even the profit margin is not much advantageous compared to Shang Sirui. It is related to my conservative strategy..." Han Xinyuan smiled bitterly. said.
"Not bad! You have a clear understanding of yourself, but since you know that the development of Zhiyuan Real Estate is too conservative, why don't you use the financial leverage to the extreme like those Japanese real estate companies? Wouldn't you make more money this way? Yang Mo asked with interest.
“Since Thailand began to implement interest rate liberalization in 89, it has gradually lifted the upper limit on the interest rate of time savings deposits with a term of more than one year. The one-year loan interest rate once exceeded 10.5%. At the same time, the Bank of Thailand allows foreign residents to open non-resident baht savings in Thailand. Account, due to the large interest rate difference between the interest rate and the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate, a large amount of international hot money was attracted to Bangkok and converted into Thai baht to eat the interest rate difference..." Han Xinyuan said gushingly.
"So? Keep talking..."
Han Xinyuan sorted out his thoughts and continued: "Coupled with the proportion of Thailand's real estate loans in total loans, which has been rising steadily in the past two years, it exceeded 45% last year, plus the 20% housing vacancy rate, all The data is almost close to that of Japan before the real estate bubble burst, and we feel like we have been dancing on the edge of a knife!”
Yang Mo chuckled and said, "Are you worried that the real estate bubble will burst at any time?"
Han Xinyuan shook his head and said: "No, the Thai government will not take the initiative to burst the real estate market bubble. They cannot afford to lose. They do not have as many foreign exchange reserves as Japan. The bursting of the real estate market bubble will bring disastrous consequences to the Thai baht. Since the 90s, From the beginning, Thailand’s financial policy was too radical, and it was open to foreign investment in an unprecedented way. A large amount of foreign hot money poured into Thailand to make profits. Once these hot money discovered that the asset bubble would burst at any time, they would rush to flee. I can’t imagine how much the Bank of Thailand would need to invest. Only through foreign exchange can we stabilize the fixed exchange rate of Thai baht to US dollar of 25:1..."
Yang Mo clapped softly and laughed loudly: "It seems that putting you in Zhiyuan Real Estate is overqualified. In your opinion, what can we do now to maximize the benefits?"
After receiving Yang Mo's approval, Han Xinyuan said excitedly: "Just do the opposite! Convert all the Thai baht in our hands into U.S. dollars, then deposit these U.S. dollars into Citibank and HSBC, use the certificates of deposit as collateral, and borrow from foreign investors Banks lend Thai baht and sell it in the foreign exchange market. They repeatedly mortgage the Thai baht and sell it, creating the illusion of capital flight. The international hot money that comes in to grab food is like a frightened bird. After smelling danger, there is a high probability that it will follow the trend and flee..."
Yang Mo patted Han Xinyuan on the shoulder and said with a chuckle: "You can teach me! But we Zhiyuan cannot do this openly shorting other people's sovereign currencies. After all, we have so many industries in Thailand!"
"Then what should we do next?" Han Xinyuan scratched his head and asked in confusion.
"Transfer the undeveloped land in Zhiyuan International's hands, and complete the properties under construction and for sale as soon as possible. In a word, complete all projects as soon as possible and cooperate with the group company to withdraw funds." Yang Mo said after pondering for a while.
"Should everything be converted into US dollar assets?" Han Xinyuan continued to ask.
"Of course, temporarily transfer it to Citigroup and HSBC accounts, and then change it to US dollar assets..."
………………
The Hope Land Hotel opposite the Shagu Business Building.
"Dong dong dong..." As soon as Yang Mo returned to the hotel room, there was a gentle knock on the door outside.
David Silva opened the door and walked in.
"David, thank you for your hard work! I heard that you have been in Southeast Asia for many days. How is it? Are you still used to the climate here?" Yang Mo stretched out his arms and gave David Silva a polar bear-style hug.
David Silva thanked him from the bottom of his heart for the decision he made nine years ago, lobbying the board of directors to sell Merlo Bank to Zhiyuan Group as a whole after Merlo Bank encountered a run crisis.
After Merlo Bank joined Zhiyuan Group, it was as if it was inspired by a magic wand and underwent earth-shaking changes. In just a few years, it became a first-class multinational commercial bank.
During the years of drastic changes in Eastern Europe, the assets of these overseas branches of Bank Merlo, which had only been established for a few years, expanded to a staggering level. They even surpassed all Wall Street capital and became the biggest winners of the drastic changes in Eastern Europe.
The drastic changes in Eastern Europe that Uncle Sam painstakingly planned eventually became a wedding dress for Zhiyuan Group. Of course, as a well-known Jewish banker, David Silva’s option incentive valuation has even exceeded the original value of Merlo Bank as a whole. The purchase price is high, of course he will not admit that he is just a white glove of Zhiyuan Group...
"It's okay! Mr. Yang, you're welcome!" David Silva bowed humbly and said.
"David, tell me about the current situation..."
"Following your instructions, all branches of Merlo Bank in Southeast Asia have tightened their monetary policy and controlled the scale of loans in local currencies. For some of our close long-term partners, we have also done corresponding hedging in the foreign exchange market to hedge risks... ” replied David Silva.
"How will the market react if the loan limit is suddenly reduced?"
"The explanation given by the head office is that the group's strategic transformation requires financial support. All branches of Merlo Bank will increase their efforts to attract deposits, temporarily reduce the size of loans, free up US dollar assets to support the group headquarters, and successfully complete the strategic transformation! However, this explanation It’s hard to hide it from professionals, and some branch executives have already noticed it, and have asked me more than once in private if I am planning to short the Thai baht?” David Silva said with a wry smile.
Yang Mo looked through the financial statements in his hand carelessly...
Han Xinyuan sat across from him uneasily, glancing at Yang Mo from time to time. This was his first time in charge of a company independently, and he was even more careful, for fear of something going wrong!
Yang Mo closed the folder in his hand and said with a smile: "Not bad! Every project is done in a down-to-earth manner, not eager for success and profit, not ambitious enough but more than steady..."
"Mr. Yang, are you praising me or criticizing me?" Han Xinyuan asked with a smile.
"What do you think?" Yang Mo asked.
Han Xinyuan thought for a while, scratched his head and said, "I think it's both!"
"Oh? Let's talk about it..."
"Being down-to-earth and steady, like Mr. Luo, may be more suitable for the manufacturing industry that is working hard and accumulating. The real estate industry should take a bigger step and use financial leverage as much as possible to expand rapidly. Although Zhiyuan Real Estate has unique funds and connections, Advantages, but in the past few years, under my leadership, the development speed is obviously not as good as that of several Japanese real estate companies, and even the profit margin is not much advantageous compared to Shang Sirui. It is related to my conservative strategy..." Han Xinyuan smiled bitterly. said.
"Not bad! You have a clear understanding of yourself, but since you know that the development of Zhiyuan Real Estate is too conservative, why don't you use the financial leverage to the extreme like those Japanese real estate companies? Wouldn't you make more money this way? Yang Mo asked with interest.
“Since Thailand began to implement interest rate liberalization in 89, it has gradually lifted the upper limit on the interest rate of time savings deposits with a term of more than one year. The one-year loan interest rate once exceeded 10.5%. At the same time, the Bank of Thailand allows foreign residents to open non-resident baht savings in Thailand. Account, due to the large interest rate difference between the interest rate and the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate, a large amount of international hot money was attracted to Bangkok and converted into Thai baht to eat the interest rate difference..." Han Xinyuan said gushingly.
"So? Keep talking..."
Han Xinyuan sorted out his thoughts and continued: "Coupled with the proportion of Thailand's real estate loans in total loans, which has been rising steadily in the past two years, it exceeded 45% last year, plus the 20% housing vacancy rate, all The data is almost close to that of Japan before the real estate bubble burst, and we feel like we have been dancing on the edge of a knife!”
Yang Mo chuckled and said, "Are you worried that the real estate bubble will burst at any time?"
Han Xinyuan shook his head and said: "No, the Thai government will not take the initiative to burst the real estate market bubble. They cannot afford to lose. They do not have as many foreign exchange reserves as Japan. The bursting of the real estate market bubble will bring disastrous consequences to the Thai baht. Since the 90s, From the beginning, Thailand’s financial policy was too radical, and it was open to foreign investment in an unprecedented way. A large amount of foreign hot money poured into Thailand to make profits. Once these hot money discovered that the asset bubble would burst at any time, they would rush to flee. I can’t imagine how much the Bank of Thailand would need to invest. Only through foreign exchange can we stabilize the fixed exchange rate of Thai baht to US dollar of 25:1..."
Yang Mo clapped softly and laughed loudly: "It seems that putting you in Zhiyuan Real Estate is overqualified. In your opinion, what can we do now to maximize the benefits?"
After receiving Yang Mo's approval, Han Xinyuan said excitedly: "Just do the opposite! Convert all the Thai baht in our hands into U.S. dollars, then deposit these U.S. dollars into Citibank and HSBC, use the certificates of deposit as collateral, and borrow from foreign investors Banks lend Thai baht and sell it in the foreign exchange market. They repeatedly mortgage the Thai baht and sell it, creating the illusion of capital flight. The international hot money that comes in to grab food is like a frightened bird. After smelling danger, there is a high probability that it will follow the trend and flee..."
Yang Mo patted Han Xinyuan on the shoulder and said with a chuckle: "You can teach me! But we Zhiyuan cannot do this openly shorting other people's sovereign currencies. After all, we have so many industries in Thailand!"
"Then what should we do next?" Han Xinyuan scratched his head and asked in confusion.
"Transfer the undeveloped land in Zhiyuan International's hands, and complete the properties under construction and for sale as soon as possible. In a word, complete all projects as soon as possible and cooperate with the group company to withdraw funds." Yang Mo said after pondering for a while.
"Should everything be converted into US dollar assets?" Han Xinyuan continued to ask.
"Of course, temporarily transfer it to Citigroup and HSBC accounts, and then change it to US dollar assets..."
………………
The Hope Land Hotel opposite the Shagu Business Building.
"Dong dong dong..." As soon as Yang Mo returned to the hotel room, there was a gentle knock on the door outside.
David Silva opened the door and walked in.
"David, thank you for your hard work! I heard that you have been in Southeast Asia for many days. How is it? Are you still used to the climate here?" Yang Mo stretched out his arms and gave David Silva a polar bear-style hug.
David Silva thanked him from the bottom of his heart for the decision he made nine years ago, lobbying the board of directors to sell Merlo Bank to Zhiyuan Group as a whole after Merlo Bank encountered a run crisis.
After Merlo Bank joined Zhiyuan Group, it was as if it was inspired by a magic wand and underwent earth-shaking changes. In just a few years, it became a first-class multinational commercial bank.
During the years of drastic changes in Eastern Europe, the assets of these overseas branches of Bank Merlo, which had only been established for a few years, expanded to a staggering level. They even surpassed all Wall Street capital and became the biggest winners of the drastic changes in Eastern Europe.
The drastic changes in Eastern Europe that Uncle Sam painstakingly planned eventually became a wedding dress for Zhiyuan Group. Of course, as a well-known Jewish banker, David Silva’s option incentive valuation has even exceeded the original value of Merlo Bank as a whole. The purchase price is high, of course he will not admit that he is just a white glove of Zhiyuan Group...
"It's okay! Mr. Yang, you're welcome!" David Silva bowed humbly and said.
"David, tell me about the current situation..."
"Following your instructions, all branches of Merlo Bank in Southeast Asia have tightened their monetary policy and controlled the scale of loans in local currencies. For some of our close long-term partners, we have also done corresponding hedging in the foreign exchange market to hedge risks... ” replied David Silva.
"How will the market react if the loan limit is suddenly reduced?"
"The explanation given by the head office is that the group's strategic transformation requires financial support. All branches of Merlo Bank will increase their efforts to attract deposits, temporarily reduce the size of loans, free up US dollar assets to support the group headquarters, and successfully complete the strategic transformation! However, this explanation It’s hard to hide it from professionals, and some branch executives have already noticed it, and have asked me more than once in private if I am planning to short the Thai baht?” David Silva said with a wry smile.
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