reborn in the fiery age

After a major rectification from last year to the first half of this year, a large number of real estate companies died at the darkest moment before dawn. Seeing that the market has almost adjusted, the center decided to gradually liberalize the real estate market and promote a steady rise in real estate prices.

The fundamental reason for the introduction of all these policies is that Xia Kingdom needs to raise more funds for industrial upgrading and structural adjustment. Of course, the more realistic problem is that under the financial crisis, in order to stimulate the economy, the current central and local finances have encountered many difficulties. , Need to add some energy through real estate.

Nowadays, there are a large number of real estate companies named Guoguo, and there are countless commercial and residential houses, which should be sold to make money. Otherwise, the little rent is useless, even the bank interest is not enough.

During the discussion on economic policy, the atmosphere was relatively active and relaxed. The reason was that the financial crisis caused by the US imperialists had survived. Although Xia Guo paid a lot of money, overall, it was relatively successful.

As the world economy as a whole tends to improve, Xia Kingdom should usher in a new round of development. However, when Sun Zujie was speaking, he was not optimistic about the future economic situation. He said it with certainty.

"Comrades, the improvement of the economic situation is indeed a good thing, but I have to tell them with certainty that our days will only become more and more difficult in the future.

In this round of financial crisis, the U.S. imperialism survived by releasing water, but comrades, this is just the beginning. The structural problems in the U.S. empire have not been resolved, but will become more serious. In the future, the U.S. imperial economy will not Get better, but it will become more and more difficult.

The more difficult it is for US imperialism, the more they want to suppress us. By suppressing us, diverting domestic conflicts is what Western countries are best at. We must be fully mentally prepared.

At present, the huge growth rate of our foreign trade will gradually slow down. The international market is so big, and we have already occupied a considerable share. Every step in the future will become more and more difficult. Various soft and hard trade barriers will There will be more and more.

Moreover, as our economy develops, the people will demand higher treatment and a higher quality of life, which will continue to increase our foreign trade costs, and those low-tech foreign trade orders will become less and less.

Under such a triple attack, the golden age of Xia’s foreign trade is about to pass, and it is impossible to rely on the rapid growth of foreign trade to bring about rapid GDP growth. The coastal foreign trade provinces must be highly vigilant. It's over!

The troika to promote economic development, the most important thing now is investment in fixed assets, and it should be supported for a while.But fixed asset investment has marginal effects.

If we invested ten years ago, we could recover the cost within a few years; today, we may need more than ten years.And ten years later, if we fail to do well, we may lose money in fixed asset investment.

That is to say, the income brought by fixed asset investment will hardly cover bank interest in the future. As a result, the debts of the central and local governments will continue to increase.At the same time, our round of large-scale economic stimulus will inevitably bring about some overcapacity.

Once there is excess capacity in the country and the export is not smooth, fierce internal competition will inevitably arise. Traditional industries such as steel and cement, which have made money in recent years, will soon have a hard time.

Having said that, I would like to emphasize again that the good days of the steel industry are not far away, and the future of various traditional industry companies will be extremely sad in the future.All of you should pay attention, don't add new production capacity casually, don't say it is unexpected. "

After saying this, Sun Zujie paused, and then said, "Under the attack of the two sides, we will soon find that some economic policies that have worked well in the past will become invalid. The development of the public foundation model will become more and more difficult in the future.

So we have no choice but to firmly carry out industrial upgrading, structural adjustment and promotion of consumption. The problem is that these three areas are not easy to do and are very difficult.

None of these three things can be accomplished overnight, and they all take time to accumulate.This is second. The biggest difficulty lies in the fact that in order to do these three things well, we must be prepared to deepen reforms and cut our own flesh.

The huge capital required for industrial upgrading may not be earned back in ten or twenty years. Some industries take longer, and it may take 20 to 30 years.What to do, long-term only investment, no output, whether it can bear it is a question mark, a big question mark.

The determination of the central government is firm, and there are many plans, which are being implemented now; but for the local government, I think it is very difficult, it is really difficult, and the term of local officials is three to five years. It cannot be firmly implemented, and it is still uncertain.

Now that long-term interests are out of the question, of course they can only pursue short-term interests, and earn money wherever they make money. This has not been uncommon in these years.

Whichever industry is hot, all over the world will inevitably flock to it. A lot of production capacity will be produced in a short period of time, and the fierce competition will be fierce. In the end, the market will be ruined, and then it will die all over again.

The most typical is the home appliance industry in the past, oh, and the current photovoltaic industry. Although these two years have been booming, but within two years, the story of the home appliance industry will also happen in the photovoltaic industry. I can say that this is even inevitable. .

This chronic disease has been accompanied by more than 30 years, and will continue to be accompanied in the future. How to solve it?There are so many things to consider, even if I write a book, I can't finish it.

Structural adjustment is the same. Everyone knows that the information industry has developed rapidly in recent years. The problem is that you want to invite others to come, but companies are unwilling to come here. They only want to hide in big cities with good conditions like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Why?

A lot of reasons came out when I asked, either the various software services could not keep up, or the level of science and education could not keep up, or even inconvenient to go to work, whether there is a commuter car, it is not easy to go to the doctor, and so on. companies take into account.

Some of these problems are due to innate reasons, and some have a lot to do with the folk customs and official customs of the place where they are located. If you want to reverse it, you will not be able to get it right if you don’t talk about it. It's soft first.

High-tech industries can't make it through, and some places can only spin around traditional industries forever.However, our traditional industries have excess production capacity, low-level redundant construction, and fierce competition, making countless local enterprises not only unable to create profits, but may continue to devour local wealth.

In this way, the local economy will be unable to survive one after another. What to do if it cannot survive, it can only increase real estate, engage in infrastructure construction, drink poison to quench thirst, develop through continuous borrowing, and push the problem back. Anyway, there is no need for a mess Do it yourself.

The same is true for promoting consumption. Nowadays, all places want to engage in tourism. Why do some places flock to tourists, and some places have few tourists? What is the difference?In addition to innate reasons, in the final analysis, the service awareness cannot keep up!

Service is easier said than done.Among other things, the hub wants to reduce logistics costs and get through the last mile. Everyone understands the benefits, but how is it implemented?The difficulty of abolishing toll booths proves that it is impossible to solve some problems without the determination to take the knife to yourself!

At this meeting today, I babbled so much to tell comrades that our reform has reached a deep water period, and various contradictions and conflicts of interests will emerge one after another. If we want to develop further, we must face these problems head-on and make up our minds To solve these problems, sometimes you even need to give yourself a knife to scrape off the carrion on your body.

This process is very hard, but it has to be done.Comrades, I'm ready, are you all ready? "

Sun Zujie ended his impromptu speech with a rhetorical question. The members of the Central Bureau and some local officials who were listening below all looked stern.

From Sun Zujie's speech, they all sensitively realized that the difficulties in the future may be much more serious than imagined, otherwise Sun Zujie would not speak in this tone, not to mention that he said all the unexpected things.

Therefore, some provinces where traditional industries account for the majority are quite nervous. Even Zheng Pingshun is also very nervous. The steel industry and photovoltaic industry in Jiangdong Province have developed rapidly in recent years. If something goes wrong, he can bear to clean up the mess.

The name of a person, the shadow of a tree, Sun Zujie's judgment on the economy has always been very accurate, so these provinces and cities certainly dare not neglect, but what they will do next is unknown.Because even if many problems are discovered, the local government will choose to ignore or delay for various reasons, and there is really not much time left for them.

Of course, more importantly, through this speech, Sun Zujie revealed some of his thoughts about his future governance this time, that is, he wants to gnaw hard bones and solve some long-term accumulated problems.

This has brought many unpredictable factors to the future, and the interests of many people will inevitably be damaged, so they can't help but not care about it.

So after the meeting ended, some comrades began to study. Jiang Dong, who ranked second and third in Xia Guo's economy, and Qilu's top leaders, Zheng Pingshun and Shang Changjian, happened to be sitting together, so the two found a place to sit down after the meeting, and got ready. have a chat.

The two are about the same age and level, and the economic strength of the province where they live is not much different, so they are naturally equals.There are many traditional industries in Qilu, and there is a lot of pressure on structural adjustment, so Shang Changjian sighed and said, "Brother Zheng, Mr. Sun went to Qilu to inspect some time ago, and scolded Governor Cheng and me severely, saying that we are not Doing business, listening to him say that today, the pressure is great!"

Zheng Pingshun also sighed, "Our province is similar. There are many iron and steel enterprises in the province, as well as this photovoltaic enterprise. Listening to Mr. Sun's assertion, I am really anxious!"

"Oh, each other!"

The two clinked glasses, Shang Changjian thought for a while and said, "I don't know much about the economy, but I know that Qilu is far less popular than Jiangdong, and the vitality of the local private economy is not enough. Comrade Pingshun, the business atmosphere in your province Strong, the private economy is also very developed, what good method do you have, can you share it, let Qilu learn from it!"

Zheng Pingshun thought for a while and said, "Old merchant, our Jiangdong has Jiangdong's problems, and your Qilu also has Qilu's problems. You are too polite when you say that you can learn from it. Mr. Sun explained the solution very clearly today, deepen reforms, and have the courage to cut yourself Carrion on the body. We all know what the problem is, but it depends on how to do it!"

"It's hard to cut your own flesh, especially since Lao Cheng and I are locals!"

"You two locals still can't cut it, it will only be more difficult for me as a foreigner!"

The two sighed for a while, and Shang Changjian still asked with some unwillingness to give up, "Are you really going to do it? To the point where you can't do it?"

"Is it okay if you don't do it? Mr. Sun has already said it so harshly. Besides, he is not another leader. His eyes are bright. If you don't do it, he might beat you with a stick!"

"Yeah, what you said makes sense! You can't do it if you don't do it, but it's hard for Qilu to do it!"

After a pause, Shang Changjian thought for a while and said in a low voice, "Old Zheng, what do you think about the change of the center's limelight?"

Zheng Pingshun shook his head, "I don't have that kind of thought now. To be honest, I came from Donghai to Jiangdong because of crimes and meritorious deeds. It is enough to keep myself safe and do my duty well. I can't think about anything else, and I dare not think about it." !"

Shang Changjian said with some embarrassment, "Yes, yes!"

After the two broke up, Shang Changjian called Mr. Gong and wanted to pay a visit to the old leader. Mr. Gong agreed with a smile.In the afternoon, Shang Changjian arrived at Gonglao's villa on time, and then reported Qilu's situation.

Mr. Gong is quite satisfied with Shang Changjian. As expected of a comrade from Huaban, his ability to grasp the situation is remarkable. Compared with Shang Changjian, Cheng Guang, whom Sun Zujie likes, is a bit biased.

Although Cheng Guang has a way of doing economics, the governor of a large province like Qilu should not only do economics, but also pay attention to other issues. Cheng Guang still has some shortcomings in how to balance.

The two chatted and talked about Sun Zujie's speech. Mr. Gong said with a smile, "Deep reforms must be done. We must explore more and summarize more. But we must also pay attention to stability. Qilu is a province with a large economy and a large population. Province, close to Yandu, stable development is the most important thing."

Mr. Gong's instructions spoke to Secretary Shang's heart. He really thought so. Seeing Shang Changjian nodding repeatedly, Mr. Gong asked with a smile, "I heard that you had dinner with Zheng Pingshun at noon. How did your chat go?" ?”

Shang Changjian gave a brief report, Gong Lao frowned slightly, and said with a smile, "This little Zheng has suffered some setbacks, but I didn't expect to come out of it!"