Beiyang reactionaries
Page 1419
But the UK is different.
Unlike France, Britain is very aggressive towards Germany, so it doesn't want to pamper Italy.Britain is most worried that after Italy wins Ethiopia, it will affect its interests in Africa.So it was against it at first.But compared to Germany, the enemy of World War I, Italy is still an ally of Britain and France.Moreover, Germany has been aggressive during this period, and it has become the biggest headache for Britain.Although Britain does not want to kill Germany with a stick like France, its fear of Germany is the same.Therefore, Britain does not want to create another enemy in Europe.After all, Italy is a powerful industrial country in Europe, and its industrial strength is very strong.
And Italy is not a small country.
Italy currently has a population of more than 4000 million, about the same as the population of the UK itself.Although the strength is not as good as that of the United Kingdom, it is not something that can be easily bullied.Therefore, although Britain was very upset and did not agree with Italy's attack on Ethiopia, it could only turn a blind eye.We can't go to war with Italy because of this matter.
For Germany, Italy, and Hitler and Mussolini, the British and French concessions not only did not stop them, but on the contrary fueled their ambitions.Because in their opinion, Britain and France are far more cowardly than they imagined.
Actually it's the same.
Britain and France do not want to have a direct conflict with Germany and Italy.Germany and Italy do not want to conflict with Britain and France, because at present, the strength of Britain and France far exceeds that of Germany and Italy.
If Britain and France show a tough stance at this time, and even lead their allies in Europe, they will put strong pressure on Germany and Italy, even military pressure.Then Germany and Italy will certainly not act rashly.Because Germany and Italy are more afraid of Britain and France than Britain and France.
It is a pity that the choice of Britain and France made Hitler and Mussolini more unscrupulous and despised Britain and France.So the actions of Hitler and Mussolini are getting bigger and bigger.
In March 1936, Germany, China, and Japan risked opposition from countries such as Britain, France, and the United States, and signed the "Anti-Comintern Pact" and began their first step in forming a military bloc.Britain, France, the United States and the Soviet Union all opposed it, but the signing of this agreement was unstoppable.
This is just the beginning.
After Germany and Italy saw the continuous concessions of Britain and France and tasted some benefits, the two countries inserted themselves into the Spanish Civil War forcefully.Not just supporting Franco, but sending troops to directly participate in the Spanish Civil War.
Britain and France are still indifferent.
On the contrary, Britain and France were happy to see the Spanish Civil War.On the one hand, it can attack the Comintern, the Soviet Union, and communism.Several industrial powers in Europe hated the Soviet Union's use of the Communist International to export revolution.This also includes the UK and France.So they don't want to see another Soviet Union in Spain.
This is one aspect.
On the other hand they also want to see Germany and Italy, fighting the Soviet Union.Britain and France do not want to offend Germany, which is becoming more and more powerful, and Italy, including Mussolini, is also becoming more and more disobedient.Britain and France do not want to go to war with Germany and Italy, so they want them to go to war with the Soviet Union.Britain and France are playing the strategy of diverting trouble from the east.
It is a pity that Britain and France are so conniving, and the result is that Hitler and Mussolini are getting bolder and bolder.
On July 1936, 7, Germany, Italy, China, and Japan held discussions in Berlin for a month and a half. On this day, Italy finally signed the "Anti-Comintern Pact."
The news shocked the world.
Italy joined the ranks of China, Germany, and Japan, and the pressure on Britain and France was even greater.France, in particular, is really under pressure right now.
"Prime Minister, when do you judge that war will break out?"
After entering 1936, other departments were developing step by step.The busiest thing is diplomacy, because after entering 1936, the diplomatic field has the most things.The unpredictable world situation and the rise of China in the Far East are changing the world situation.The world must adapt to China's rise, and China itself must adapt to its own changes on the world stage.Therefore, there have been many negotiations between China and various major countries in the world in the past two years.
Because there are too many historical problems left by China.
In the past, China was a weak country and was the target of being slaughtered by world powers.Therefore, many treaties signed between China and world powers in the past were unequal treaties, and they were all signed by them.
Now that China's strength is slowly growing, of course it is necessary to change these contracts.
So the foreign service is busy.
"Two years at the fastest, no more than three years at the slowest."
In addition to signing the "Anti-Comintern Pact" with Germany, Japan, and Italy, China also signed the "Sino-Italy Trade Agreement" with Italy.In the past, most of Italy's trading partners were European countries and African colonies, but with the signing of this agreement, China will become Italy's largest supplier of raw materials.Most of the raw materials needed by Italian industry will be provided by China.
In fact, Duan Xun also wants to sell industrial products.
But the current situation is that China has not yet been able to sell its own industrial products on a large scale.Fortunately, China has a vast land and abundant resources, and can basically provide the raw materials needed in the world.If it weren't for the many problems in oil transportation, or China would even be willing to export oil to Europe.
However, although the added value of raw material export is very low, it is still very important to China at present.Because a large amount of exported raw materials can not only bring a lot of foreign exchange, but also feed a large number of domestic workers in related fields.
"Two or three years?"
After signing a trade agreement with Italy, Wang Yongjiang came to ask Duan Xun his judgment on the world situation.
"Well. According to my judgment, it should be two years sooner. Even if some unforeseen things happen, there may even be a war within two years. But no matter what, the slowest is three years, that is There will be war in 1939. I'm sure of that."
Because of Duan Xun's appearance, the world situation has changed a lot.
The history in Duan Xun's impression is no longer the same as the present world.However, the inertia of history is very large, and the general historical trend will not cause major problems.Because no matter in history or in the current time and space, conflicts of interest have not been resolved.As long as conflicts of interest remain, wars will inevitably break out.This Duan Xun is sure.
Duan Xun judged the outbreak time of the war based on the analysis of all aspects of intelligence collected so far, not casually.
"Prime Minister, since the Prime Minister judges that war will break out in two or three years, I have some suggestions."
Duan Xun said that there was a war in two or three years, and Wang Yongjiang didn't doubt it at all.
It is really because since Wang Yongjiang followed Duan Xun, Duan Xun has been very accurate in his judgment of the domestic situation and the international situation every time, and there has never been a problem.In the judgment of the general direction, Duan Xun is accurate every time.
Sometimes trust is a blind thing.
Duan Xun spent more than 20 years proving his correctness, making these people who have followed Duan Xun blindly trust Duan Xun.The adoption of the Third Five-Year Plan has a lot to do with this kind of blind trust.At that time, it was precisely because everyone believed in Duan Xun's judgment that they passed the proposal to mainly develop the military industry in the third five-year plan.
"Prime Minister Wang, tell me."
Wang Yongjiang is the chief housekeeper Duan Xun started to follow when he was in Western Henan, and he has followed Duan Xun for more than 20 years.The plans for China's economy in these years are all written by Wang Yongjiang.It can be said that it is the chief architect of China's economic development in recent years.
Therefore, Duan Xun respects Wang Yongjiang very much.Especially now that Wang Yongjiang's health is getting worse and worse, but he is still struggling on the front line.
"Prime Minister, the biggest problem in our country at present is that too much currency has been issued, which has led to a sharp increase in government debt. Of course, his role is still obvious. During the second five-year plan, it laid the foundation for my country's rapid development. But now our country's mobile There are already too many currencies, which far exceed the output of my country’s industry and agriculture. Inflation is very serious, so the government needs to slowly control inflation. However, if inflation is controlled, it will become more and more difficult to solve government debts. Now our country’s one-year Interest on government debt is staggering, including local government debt. If left unchecked, government finances will not be able to bear it.”
"I know."
Duan Xun nodded.
Government debt grew alarmingly during the second five-year plan period.This is all because the government issued too much currency in the second five-year plan to strongly promote industrial development.In fact, with China's strength, it is impossible to make the industrial output value surpass the old industrial countries such as Britain and France in a short period of time, and it is impossible to build so many factories.But China used the second five-year plan to quickly become the world's second largest industrial country.
What does it rely on?
In addition to the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity of the Great Depression, it was because of China's large-scale issuance of currency that the currency was released.The government has led the investment in a large number of key projects, there are many key projects, and there are many major basic projects.But where does the government get so much money? In fact, most of it comes from issuing currency, and the rest comes from bank loans.
But no matter how it came, the money has to be paid back.
If the government reneges on its debts, China's entire financial system will collapse by then.
But too much debt puts too much pressure on the government.In order to repay the debts, the government needs a certain amount of inflation to dilute these debts.But the big problem in China now is that inflation is already very serious. If the government continues to promote inflation in order to dilute debts, the whole society will be unstable at that time.This is the problem in China now.
The aftermath of the currency flood.
Originally, at this time, the government needs to be stable, and it needs to take time to solve the sequelae of the second five-year plan.But China can't do this. China still needs to maintain a large amount of expenditure.In particular, the soaring military expenditures have kept the government in deficit every year.
"Prime Minister, in order to solve this problem, I suggest taking advantage of the current opportunity to borrow a large amount from European and American countries again. And introduce more policies that are conducive to foreign investment."
"Prime Minister, in order to solve this problem, I suggest taking advantage of the current opportunity to borrow a large amount from European and American countries again. And introduce more policies that are conducive to foreign investment."
This is the purpose of Wang Yongjiang looking for Duan Xun this time.
Wang Yongjiang already has a general idea, but this is very risky.So he needs Duan Xun to give him another answer, a definite answer.Just now Duan Xun said that the war would definitely break out within two or three years, which made Wang Yongjiang confirm his thoughts.
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