Holy Roman Empire

Because the population is constantly growing, in two or three years at most, the extra food on the market will be consumed, and the price of food will normalize.

On the surface, there is nothing wrong with Austria's proposal.All major food exporting countries have reduced production in the same proportion to maintain market price stability, which is equivalent to accepting the Russian Empire as one of them, and Austria has also given up a large market.

In fact, this was very fatal to the tsarist government.Cutting production is easier said than done.If you want to increase the grain production of the Russian Empire by 8% next year, it is very simple to expand the planting area.

Now the Russian people are highly motivated to grow grain, and the output is rising steadily. As long as the traffic problem is solved and Austria becomes the world's largest grain exporter, there will be no problem at all.

However, it is difficult to reduce production. The government can't prohibit people from growing food, can it?There are tens of millions of farmers in Russia, and no one can stop them from increasing their grain acreage.

Even if it is to copy the Austrian fallow method, it is useless. Russia has plenty of land.As for Austria's wasteland reclamation law, the tsarist government did not dare to follow it, because something would happen.

After Alexander II pondered for a while, he turned his attention to everyone.

"What do you think, is the Austrian proposal feasible?"

An obese middle-aged man stood up emotionally, and said indignantly: "Your Majesty, this is an Austrian conspiracy. How can it be possible to reduce food production capacity by 8% within a year?

Even now that international grain prices are low, it will be a long process for farmers to adjust their planting habits.

It is impossible for the government to directly stipulate what farmers should plant.Agricultural overcapacity is similar to industrial overcapacity. After a crisis, the market will make a choice to survive the fittest.

If we forcefully cut production capacity, it will be of no value at all except to cause a big chaos.

The Austrians are demonstrating to us. They want to use low food prices to force us to compromise with them. "

Manilov is not stupid. As the Minister of Agriculture, he is very aware of how enthusiastic Russian farmers are in growing grain. It would be thankless for them to cut production at this time.

Russia and Austria are completely different, and the national conditions of the two countries are very different.After the Vienna government introduced the law, it curbed the increase in the area of ​​land for growing food.

As long as the high-ranking nobles of the government take the lead and replant cash crops on their own land, many people will respond.The Russian aristocrats are different. It seems easy to switch to cash crops. The question is who do they sell to?

This is the gap between an agricultural country and an industrial country. Austria has a complete set of industries, relatively developed transportation and communications, and relatively transparent information.

For these nobles in the upper class of society, it is very easy to understand the market conditions, knowing that what they plant will sell.

The Russian Empire is different. The local industry has just started, and the poor traffic has isolated communications. Not to mention the telephone, even the telegraph has not been able to spread to every city.

Even if someone wants to change to cash crops, they don't know what to plant?Even if it is planted, I don't know where to transport the things to sell.

In the absence of effective sales channels, everyone can only carry out conservative planting.Regardless of the price of grain, at least grain is easy to sell and merchants come to buy it.

If you want to plant cash crops, you must think clearly.If there are corresponding factories around, then there is no problem, and everyone can plant with confidence.

If there is no factory, then it must be scaled. If the production capacity is insufficient, the transportation cost may not be enough.

Foreign Secretary Chris Basham: "Marquis Manilov, please calm down. Don't forget that Austria is the largest exporter of agricultural products, and they will lose the most if this goes on.

After the price of raw grain collapsed, the price of finished grain also continued to drop.If it continues, eventually these processing enterprises will not escape.

In order to protect domestic enterprises, the Vienna government has reduced taxes for these enterprises, but the share of Austrians in the international market is still shrinking.

After obtaining cheap raw materials, the grain processing enterprises in various countries that were suppressed by Austria have now begun to flourish.

If the situation of oversupply does not change and the price of raw grain continues to slump, grain processing enterprises in European countries will soon be able to develop.

From the perspective of interests, the initiative issued by the Austrians is more to preserve the domestic processing and manufacturing industry.

In any case, Austria is still our most important grain exporter. Even if the British market is reopened, this fact cannot be changed.

If Austria refuses to accept my country's agricultural products, it will be the beginning of disaster. No one in Europe has such a large-scale agricultural product processing industry chain. "

Alexander II stretched out his hand and patted his forehead. The bumper harvest was also a headache.The oversupply in the international grain market has made it a foregone conclusion that this year's grain will be unsalable.

Once the biggest buyer, Austria, is lost, there is really nothing to do with the mountains of grain in the country.Preliminary estimates show that the Russian Empire will have tens of millions of tons of extra grain this year.

Except for the British contract that is uncertain whether it can be fulfilled, they currently do not have any large orders.At the same price, no one wants their food.

Everyone has a stable supplier, why would they just change people for no reason, or replace them with someone they hate.

There is no way, the Russians have been hacked miserably in Europe in recent years.Now 70.00% of Europeans do not recognize Russia as a European country, and Russians are naturally not considered Europeans.

That leaves the 30.00% who admit they are Europeans, including more than 400 million Russians.In this era, the total population of continental Europe is less than [-] million, so this ratio is quite touching.

Fortunately, at least half of so much grain cannot be shipped out, otherwise the competition in the international grain market will be even more brutal.

This is completely different from Alexander II's original plan. Originally, he wanted to use food as ammunition to leverage the hegemony of the European continent.As a result, before it even had time to start, it fell into his hands.

There is no problem with the plan, but the change is a bit sudden.The major grain exporters on the continent were Austria, Russia, Poland, Prussia, and the rest are not worth mentioning.

Overseas competitors are not yet in the air.Because the American countries only send more than 100 million tons of agricultural products to the European continent every year, and their market share is not high.

This is determined by interests. The Confederate States of America are still going further and further on the road of growing cotton, and now their cotton supremacy is still unbreakable.

The same price competes for quality, and the same quality competes for price. No cotton in any region can compete with them these days.

The Egyptian cotton planting plan of the British died early. After the French occupied Egypt, they once wanted to develop the cotton industry, but under the impact of American cotton, the French finally gave up.

Unfortunately, the Indian cotton that the British fiddled with was overwhelmed by the Americans in terms of cost.There is no discussion in front of interests, and Indian cotton cannot become the mainstream.

Austria's West African cotton planting base is not much better.The output has hardly increased in recent years, and domestic capitalists are also loyal fans of American cotton.

There is no way, this is caused by the unique natural conditions.If enterprises do not use cotton from the Allied countries, the products they produce will lack market competitiveness.

The government is not omnipotent, and it is impossible to support all industries. The result of distracting energy is often nothing in the end.Austria has no advantage in the cotton spinning market, and the Vienna government will naturally not invest in it.

If it weren't for the loss of this powerful opponent, everyone's life would be even more difficult.

At present, Brazil and Argentina are the major grain exporting countries in the Americas. However, these two countries have a small population, limited grain planting area, and not very large production capacity.

After standing up and wandering for a few steps, Alexander II had an idea and made a decision.

"Reply to the Austrians and tell them that the Russian Empire is also a responsible big country, and we agree to cut food production capacity. The specific measures should follow the example of Austria, but it needs to be changed.

There is no problem with the land fallow law, just move here.The land reclamation law was changed from now on: the newly reclaimed wasteland shall not grow food within five years. "

Alexander II has already seen the consequences of overcapacity. Now that international grain exports are no longer profitable, he does not want to continue to increase grain production capacity.

That being the case, it is better to give the Vienna government a face.The Russian Empire is not increasing food production capacity for the time being, but let’s forget about reducing production capacity. Such a challenging thing cannot be done by the Tsarist government.

Chapter 95 The Great Merger Era

The impact of the agricultural crisis is not limited to the European continent, and the Americas have not been able to escape.

Grain prices in Europe plummeted, and capitalists naturally shipped the grain out for sale, and grain prices in the Americas were also knocked down.

The development of shipping technology has reduced the cost of shipping, and the number of [-]-ton ocean-going transport ships has increased.Under this shareholder wind, the grain dumped by Austria also traveled across the ocean to enter the Japanese market.

Of course, this is just incidental. The profit is still too low to transport grain to Japan for sale, and everyone has no such leisure.

Affected by the Meiji Restoration, the number of machinery and equipment imported from Europe in Japan has increased significantly in recent years, and trade has become more prosperous.

It was first born in Austria's [-]-ton transport ship. While reducing freight costs, there is also an embarrassing problem-the cargo is often not full.

This problem is not difficult for capitalists. You can fill the warehouse with a few local products. No matter how small a mosquito is, it is still meat and cannot be wasted.

The appeal of the Vienna government is still somewhat effective. The major grain exporting countries have all announced production cuts, so I don't know how effective it will be.

Anyway, in Franz's view, the measures adopted by various countries are full of loopholes. Whether the production capacity can be suppressed depends entirely on the self-consciousness of farmers.

Just after the autumn harvest, a large wave of new grains came on the market, and international grain prices continued to fall.The capitalists know how powerful it is, and if it continues like this, everyone will be finished.

In order to maintain the stability of food prices, the capitalists united with the big farmers and began to put pressure on the government.By the end of 1872, most countries in Europe had raised import tariffs on agricultural products.

These measures are far from enough. In order to stabilize market prices, capitalists have to reluctantly destroy some agricultural products.

Food-importing countries are fine. Tariffs have been raised, and some surplus agricultural products have been destroyed, and the market has quickly returned to stability.

Just maintaining "stability" and wanting food prices to return to normal levels is still not something that can be done overnight.

It is miserable for grain exporting countries, except for slow sales.More trade disputes broke out in continental Europe this year than in the past five years combined.

其中损失最为惨重的自然是俄奥普波四国。为了缓解危机，1872年10月份，维也纳政府宣布收购270万吨小麦、480万吨黑麦、380万吨玉米、190万吨大豆进行战略储备。

Of course, there are additional conditions. The agricultural products purchased this time are limited to new grains produced locally, and are purchased in accordance with the minimum grain price protection price stipulated by the government.

First destocking, and now starting to restore stock, there is no problem.Stimulated by this good news, grain prices in the Austrian local market have finally stabilized.

The international grain market is still not improving. Now the price of grain is not the problem, but the market is saturated. Many grain-importing countries have suspended grain imports.

Seeing that the Vienna government purchased grain as a strategic reserve, the Junker nobles couldn't sit still anymore, and they jumped out to make suggestions and asked the Prussian government to increase the strategic grain reserve.

In the Berlin Palace, a meeting on this issue has already begun.William I had no opinion on increasing the strategic grain reserves. The only problem was that the Prussian government had no money.

The money for Austria's purchase of grain was obtained in exchange for the dumping of grain in stock.A rough calculation shows that the Vienna government has lost millions of tons of grain for this kind of entry and exit.

It is difficult to calculate the specific loss, and the price difference between new grain and old grain must also be taken into account, as well as the cost of purchasing grain reserves by the Vienna government before that.

"Prime Minister, what do you think?"

Moltke's pressure increased greatly. On the one hand, the government's dry wallet and on the other hand, the interests of the Junker nobles, which made him very embarrassed.After a little hesitation, reality helped him make a decision.

"Your Majesty, I don't know when the Russo-Prussian War will break out. No one can guarantee how long this war will last. It is very necessary to increase the strategic food reserves.

It's just that the government has no money in its finances now, and if it wants to increase its strategic reserves, it will need at least hundreds of millions of marks, which is far beyond our ability to bear.

If farmers can accept credit, we can eat part of the grain, but when the payment will be made, the government has no way to guarantee. "

This answer makes it impossible to refute. It is not that the government is unwilling to increase strategic reserves, but the problem is that the government has no money to buy them.

If you want the government to collect the grain, it’s a white note. When the government has money, it will pay it back. If it has no money, it will continue to owe it.

From the perspective of class interests, Moltke's words still dissatisfy many people.It's just that I can't find a reason to refute it. The government still has no money.

"Prime Minister, I'm afraid you can't do this. There is a cost to growing food. The government must at least pay the cost, otherwise many farmers will go bankrupt."

The Minister of Agriculture, Melanie Griffiths, hastily persuaded that if he really hit the IOU, he would have no way to explain it to the Junker nobles.

Moltke shrugged, made a helpless expression, and spread his hands.

"Where does the money come from? Our finances have always been tight. Even if the current grain price is very cheap, you can buy a ton of rye for less than 100 marks, and 100 million tons is [-] million marks.

As long as your Ministry of Agriculture can solve the money problem, it doesn't matter how much you charge. I guarantee that no one in the government will object. "

The Kingdom of Prussia has long been heavily indebted, and the domestic financial sector is unable to provide loans to the government. If it wants to continue borrowing money from the outside world, it must sell its national interests.

Whoever dares to propose such a suggestion must first consider whether he will be blacked out by patriotic youths when he goes out.

These years the Kingdom of Prussia is also full of secondary school boys. These people are the guarantee of the combat effectiveness of the Prussian army, and they are also the ticking time bomb of the Kingdom of Prussia.

Melanie Griffiths hasn't lived enough yet, and he doesn't want to be the target of patriotic youths. It's impossible for him to do such a deadly thing.

"Sorry, Your Excellency. This is not my job, you have to ask the Ministry of Finance. If the government can't stabilize food prices, then it's okay to have a more active agricultural policy?"

Moltke: "Of course! As long as it has nothing to do with money, we can try our best to solve other problems."

Melanie Griffiths: "That would be the best."

Melanie Griffiths, who had been prepared for a long time, took out a document, stepped forward and handed it to William I.

"Your Majesty, this is the Ministry of Agriculture's plan to reduce food production capacity. We have learned from the experience of the Austrians and are preparing to implement the Land Fallow Law."

This proposal surprised everyone. The Berlin government had discussed this issue before. It was only because of strong opposition from the Ministry of Agriculture controlled by the Junker nobles that it ended without a problem.

After briefly scanning the documents, King William I's face darkened.The same is the land fallow law, but the Prussian land fallow law is much more explicit.

On the surface, it seems that the problem is not big. If you study it carefully, you will find that many problems have been vaguely mentioned. After a little analysis, you will find that this is only considering the interests of the Junker nobles.

The nobles have a lot of land. Even if the strict land fallow law is introduced, they still have enough land to cultivate in rotation. The real interests will be damaged by the owner farmers who lack land.

According to the above regulations, due to the emergence of crop rotation technology, the time for land fallow has been reduced, and ordinary farmers who have just had a good few days will soon be unlucky again.

If it is implemented, a new round of land annexation will be staged in Prussia, and a large number of owner farmers will go bankrupt as a result.

"Melanie Griffiths, are you sure that the above content is true, has the Ministry of Agriculture not considered the consequences of doing so?"

Facing William I's questioning, Melanie Griffiths did not change her face, and replied calmly: "Your Majesty, after the outbreak of the agricultural crisis, the market will inevitably undergo a round of elimination of the survival of the fittest.

Whether or not we implement the Fallow Law, bankruptcies will erupt.If we take the initiative to take measures, we can also get through the crisis as soon as possible, so as not to implicate more people. "

This is nonsense, and it is also true.It is an inevitable result that owner farmers cannot compete with big farmers.According to the current situation, food prices have collapsed, and the self-cultivating farmers will go bankrupt due to high debts if they persist for a few years at most.

This cannot be changed by manpower, it is nothing more than a matter of time to erupt.The Junker nobles changed their minds and agreed to cut production capacity. In addition to maintaining food prices, they still wanted to merge land and expand their family business.

Ordinary people may think that the price of food has plummeted and the land has become worthless, but the Junker nobles, who have power, don't think so.

The population is constantly growing, but the land cannot continue to grow.From this perspective, food prices will rise sooner or later.

Even if international food prices cannot be restored, they can artificially raise domestic prices of agricultural products by amending the rules.

In the original space-time German Empire, the food production was insufficient, and the Junker nobles dared to set restrictions to prevent foreign agricultural products from entering the domestic market, let alone now?

The bankruptcy of farmers is also what Capital Juncker wants to see, and they can get more cheap labor.As long as you analyze the interests, you will know that this plan is already unstoppable in the Kingdom of Prussia.

……

After the Kingdom of Prussia promulgated the "Law of Fallow Land", which is full of annexation, European countries soon began to follow suit.