Investor That Can See The Future

Chapter 303

I, who once dreamed of getting a job in the financial sector, will be asked to act as a management advisor for a sovereign wealth fund.

The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund invests in companies around the world. However, since it is impossible to know the local circumstances in detail, they usually sign a contract with a manager or establish a subsidiary. There is such a management company in Korea as well, and it is one of the enviable workplaces in the financial sector.

General Carlsen continued.

“As you know, sovereign wealth funds are gradually increasing their share of stocks.”

All financial products have a direct proportion of return and risk. Even if it seems like otherwise, it is a temporary phenomenon to the extent that it is supposed to return to the average again by the market function.

Stocks are high-return, but also high-risk. For this reason, funds that value stability limit their share of stock holdings. The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, on the other hand, was planning to increase its shareholding to 70 percent.

This is because oil prices and stocks often show opposite movements, and there is a belief that even if there is a temporary loss, in the long term, it will move upward.

This is possible because the decision-making process is transparent and social trust is at the bottom. Even if there is a loss, if it is reasonably decided according to the procedure, it will not be held responsible.

In this respect, there is a big difference from the Korean National Pension Service, which devotes itself to its annual earnings. In the case of Korea, even if there is an immediate loss of valuation, the media is busy attacking the nation first, saying it has blown away the people’s retirement funds.

So, we have to be as conservative as possible. You may think that investing only in bonds and deposits, not stocks and real estate, is not a way to avoid losses.

Even if the principal remains the same, if it does not keep pace with inflation and market returns, it is the same as losing money as a result.

“The arms are bent inward, and as long as I do investment and business, I may be advising to my advantage.”

Lawyers have the duty to avoid conflicts of interest to avoid pleadings in which the client’s interests conflict. The same goes for investors.

So in the case of a private equity fund or hedge fund, the manager puts his or her money first. If there is a loss, it will bear with the investors.

“Fine. It is up to us to decide what kind of intentions we intended to give advice.”

If it’s really good info, I’ll be the first to move. If you just see it and then move along, you’ll be able to get a decent amount of profit.

How much are you going to pay as an advisory fee? If not, it will be tens of millions of dollars, and you will be paid separately for success, right?

Yeah, it doesn’t mean much to me. You’re not going to get rich with that money.

It would be okay to put one more line on the business card saying that you are an outside advisor to the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, but… … .

General Manager Carlsen said persuasively.

“If it is difficult to advise on investment, I would like to ask you about oil prices.”

I was perplexed by those words.

“Do you think I have the power to do that?”

“Did you not predict correctly this time?”

Until Hurricane Red Kay swept the North Sea, most experts predicted a decline in oil prices. However, Red K made the North Sea oil field devastating, and oil prices soared.

And while everyone shed tears at a big loss, OTK Company made a lot of money.

I said calmly.

“In any case, I was lucky. Did I know that the North Sea oil field was going to be shut down due to damage?”

“Even if you are talented, you have to be lucky to survive.”

I shrugged.

“Aren’t there not one or two experts in that area?”

As the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund was created from the export proceeds of Brent oil, the most important of all economic indicators is oil price.

Even now, geniuses from all over Europe will gather and predict oil prices with their own formulas and financial engineering.

However, it is difficult to predict the oil market as there are so many variables. Facility operation, Middle East situation, production cut agreement, climate, new oil fields, development of refining technology, investor sentiment, etc.

Since oil prices have a great impact on the real economy as well as finance, there are only a few things that can be done by accurately predicting future trends.

“I think CEO Kang Jin-hoo’s feelings are more accurate than the calculations of 100 such experts.”

“Would they be sad if they heard it?”

General Carlsen smiled bitterly.

“They will agree with me. So do I.”

This is the beauty of investing.

Whether it is calculated and analyzed by a supercomputer or taken roughly, you just have to guess it. Just like the stocks that the monkeys picked out were better than the stocks that fund managers chose to put their heads together.

Come to think of it, this guy was also a financial engineer, right?

In any case, unless foreknowledge is seen, I, too, cannot know how oil prices will move in the future.

“Let’s think about it.”

“Okay.”

He didn’t seem to be very disappointed, as he didn’t think he would accept it right away anyway.

General Manager Carlsen ordered an additional coffee.

“This time the US has moved its embassy to Jerusalem.”

“Ah! I saw it on the news.”

Usually, the embassy is located in the capital of the country. However, the US embassy in Israel has been in Tel Aviv, not Jerusalem.

Now we are moving it to Jerusalem.

The influence of Jews in America is huge. Although the proportion of the population is only 2%, they control and operate finance, politics, industry, and the media.

U.S. presidential candidates have promised to move the embassy to Jerusalem to win support from the Jews, but none have done so.

As we all know, Jerusalem is a holy city for Judaism and Christianity as well as for Islam. For this reason, after Israel occupied Jerusalem, Arab countries strongly opposed it.

Ronald was also elected on the same promise, but the prevailing expectation was that it would not be possible to move the embassy because it would be the same as recognizing Israel’s dominion in Jerusalem.

“I thought it was going to get messy because I was taking care of Big One, but this time, I finally made it.”

Unlike previous presidents, Ronald boasted about keeping his promises, but the situation is very different then and now.

So far, the most important goal of the US Middle East strategy has been to secure oil. However, shale oil has made self-sufficiency possible.

This meant that the United States no longer had to look out for Arab countries. The shale revolution also changed the international situation.

In essence, economics and politics always move together.

“Isn’t it highly likely that neighboring countries will protest?”

“I do not know. I don’t think anything will happen right now.”

“Why do you think so?”

“Hey what… … .”

Although it temporarily rebounded due to the damage of the North Sea oil field, most of the Middle East countries are self-sufficient due to the continuous drop in oil prices, internal conflicts, and power struggles after the financial crisis. There will be opposition, but the likelihood of a direct armed conflict is extremely low.

“Hmm, that’s right.”

This is a fact that can be easily understood just by looking at the news. I’m not a Middle Eastern expert.

However, General Manager Carlsen nodded his head eagerly as if hearing it for the first time and asked a question. Then, topics such as the EU-UK Brexit Agreement and the Turkish economic crisis were naturally brought up.

In the midst of our conversation, I realized an important fact.

“… … .”

I think this person is misunderstanding something.

General Manager Carlsen thinks that I am seeing the flow of the global economy. So I’m trying to figure out my thoughts through conversation.

Could this be the real purpose of coming to me?

Of course, this is a huge mistake.

I am only in my twenties, and it has only been four years since I entered the financial world in earnest. If it hadn’t been for foreknowledge, I would have been working as a junior employee at a securities company by now.

On the other hand, Carlsen has been in the financial world for over 30 years. Which of the two knows more? Wouldn’t it be better for me to learn more?

I didn’t have anything to hide, so I answered whatever came to mind, and he pretended not to, carefully examining my expression and tone.

I also focused on his every word.

After hours of conversation, we stood up.

“It was a great time. I hope to have the opportunity to meet you again next time.”

“I was happy too.”

His expression looked very satisfied. What the hell did you get from talking to me?

Hmmm, I’m suddenly starting to worry about the return on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund.

* * *

Professor Kiran Mohan arrived first, and we greeted him in the hotel lobby. His assistant, Carrie Catwright, was also there.

She was delighted with her unexpected trip to Northern Europe.

“Please sign later. My schoolmates asked me to.”

“Anyway.”

We’ve been through hard times together, can’t we just do that?

Professor Mohan smiled and hugged me lightly.

“How have you been?”

“of course.”

Although he is almost the same age as his grandfather, it is like reuniting with an old friend.

“It’s nice to meet you here.”

“Me too.”

Since they came to Norway, they each have their own schedule.

Professor Mohan must attend an autograph session hosted by a publishing company and an invitational lecture at the university. Ronald has a summit meeting with the Prime Minister.

“The professor was right about the possibility that abnormal climate phenomena could occur due to changes in topography and geothermal heat caused by the Big One.”

“You mean Hurricane Red Kay?”

In Norway, Professor Mohan’s books were selling wildly. And experts agree with the claim, and are concerned about future abnormal climate events.

“I heard that he made a lot of money because of that.”

“Yes. So, I will live for the rice. Let’s go together.”

Norway is a very prosperous country, so prices are beyond imagination. It’s basic to break tens of thousands of won just by eating at McDonald’s.

Professor Mohan happily nodded his head.

“You get it from the richest man in the world, so I won’t give up.”

* * *

Ronald, who was in Switzerland, did not arrive at the hotel until late at night.

Professor Mohan said he was tired and went to bed early, and Taekkyu and I drank bourbon together in Ronald’s room and talked about what was going on.

“You don’t like alcohol, do you?”

He toasts with cola or grape juice instead of wine at dinners.

Ronald said with a smirk.

“I don’t hate it. But there is no one to drink comfortably.”(Read more @ wuxiax.com)

Does this mean that we are people who can drink comfortably? Being able to drink like this with the President of the United States is a privilege if it is a privilege.

Ronald looked very tired. Maybe because of my age, my physical strength is different.

By the way, this image is never shown in front of the media. They usually show anger or shouting.

“It’s not as easy as you think to be president.”

As president, he seems to be able to move the country at will, but in a democratic country, various checks are put in place. The separation of powers is not for nothing.

After a few drinks, Ronald’s face quickly turned red.

“What do you think moves the world?”

“Yes?”

All of a sudden, it’s such a big question.

Can it be explained by one or two?”

Ronald smiled bitterly.

“It is. But in the world, there is such a thing as a huge stream of water that can be called the main stream. It is very difficult to go against that flow. No matter how much you want to avoid it, what has to happen will happen.”

“… … .”

What does this mean?

Taek-gyu and I looked at each other’s faces. Ronald, who was about to say something more, shook his head violently.

“It looks like he’s drunk. Better get up for tomorrow.”

“Okay.”

* * *

December 10th.

US President Ronald Stamper, Professor Kiran Mohan, and Kang Jin-hoo were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

If you think about it, it was a very unusual combination. One is the President of the United States, one is a professor at the California Institute of Technology, and the other is the richest man in the world.

The three of them worked together to save the lives of millions of people in a global catastrophe.

With the whole world watching, Ronald spoke solemnly and seriously.

“The Big One is not over yet. We’ve all lost family and friends, and the recovery continues today. I think this award is given to all Americans, not me. I hope that the Nobel Peace Prize will be of some comfort to them.”

The people who had gathered there stood up in unison and applauded.

Professor Homin Kim was also awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in Stockholm for his contribution to the development of his OTK battery.

Korea was engulfed in a festive mood by winning two Nobel Prizes at the same time. In particular, the award in the field of science alone was a great achievement for the Korean scientific community.

President Huh Chang-min sent a congratulatory message, and congratulations from the political and financial circles followed.