Investor That Can See The Future

Chapter 283

As can be seen from the bankruptcy of Hyunjin Shipping, the current global shipping market is not doing well. And if the shipping industry is not doing well, it means that the shipbuilding industry is also not doing well.

In the meantime, Daehu Chosun was run by the president on a parachute from the political arena. All positions such as outside directors and standing advisors were filled with politicians.

As a result, every time the government changed, the management changed as well. At the time of Park Si-hyeong, they were politicians of the Liberal National Party, and now they are politicians of the New Politics Party.

If you look at this, whether you are a conservative or a liberal, taking care of your own people is the same.

Even if emergency management is insufficient, the company cannot run properly if it is run according to the taste of the government in this way.

“The bond maturity date is coming soon, and the repayment amount is short-lived.”

“A rollover?”

Rollover means extension of maturity.

“I already did it once. In any case, since we have more assets than liabilities, we won’t be unable to repay it, but creditors would like to give them a higher interest rate.”

I nodded.

“It seems that the public is noticing the use of additional public assets, so they are pushing for the sale again.”

If the business conditions are good, chaebol groups will also show interest. But it is a treasure trove of things to take now.

In this situation, there was talk of pursuing a merger with Seosung Heavy Industries, led by the New Political Party. It sounds like a merger, but in fact, it is a forced transfer.

“What is the market cap of Daehu Joseon?”

“A little less than two trillion.”

Among them, KDB has a stake of 58 percent.

“The stake sale will of course be done in a block deal. If it’s forcibly handing over, won’t you give me a discount?”

Block deals, which are block trades, are priced according to the struggle between buyers and sellers. If the buyer is dissatisfied, the price is higher than the market price, and if the seller is dissatisfied, the price is reduced on the contrary.

One trillion won would be enough to take over.

“It is not the end of life. Container ships and LNG carriers have synergies with existing businesses, but they are not in the offshore plant sector.”

Korea was once the world’s number one shipbuilder. However, Chinese shipbuilders, who have accumulated technological prowess, are in great difficulty as they swept the entire world by winning low-priced orders.

As a result, domestic shipbuilders turned their attention to high value-added industries. One of them is an offshore plant. An offshore plant is a structure installed on the sea to mine resources on the seabed.

In this market occupied by shipbuilders in advanced countries, Daehoo Shipbuilding and domestic shipbuilders ambitiously challenged themselves.

However, it turned out to be a huge loss.

The problem is that he had no experience in manufacturing and that all of his core designs depended on foreign countries, but the biggest reason is low-priced orders.

When this happened, opinions were divided between those who wanted to keep pushing forward because they had accumulated know-how, and those who wanted to withdraw because they could incur a bigger loss.

However, as the low oil price continued, the number of orders itself decreased, and the offshore plant sector was reduced to an Aemul complex.

If the business conditions do not improve, the acquisition will take place and bear additional losses.

Taegyu said.

“Then why don’t we take over?”

Chairman Im Jin-yong shook his head.

“That’s because the politicians are noticing it, and it’s not a bad sale either.”

Is it the so-called adult case?

No matter which government is in power, the chaebols… … In particular, the Seoseong group has received various privileges. As such, the will of the politicians cannot be ignored.

And as long as you’re going to keep doing it, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to be called big on this opportunity.

“Aren’t you interested in shipbuilding?”

Apparently, I came here to ask about this.

I was about to reply that I wasn’t interested, but at that moment something came to my mind.

* * *

As soon as Chairman Im Jin-yong passed away, Taek-gyu asked.

“What did you see this time?”

I told you what I saw before.

Taek-gyu asked in surprise.

“Is the North Sea next to England?”

“Huh.”

The North Sea is located above the continent of Europe, to the right of England.

This place became famous because an oil field was discovered in the 1960s. The extracted crude oil is high-quality light oil with low sulfur content, and it is Brent oil from North Sea, one of the world’s three major crude oils.

The North Sea oil field brought great wealth to neighboring countries.

Thanks to this, Britain, Norway and the Netherlands have risen to the ranks of oil-producing countries. But this was not necessarily a good thing.

After that, the Netherlands suffered economic hardship to the extent that it was called the Dutch disease. And the same goes for other resource-rich countries.

This is called the resource curse, and there are several reasons.

First, resource mining has a small employment-inducing effect. In the end, only a small number of companies and a small number of talented people make a living by mining and selling resources, and the rest of the people play because there are no jobs.

If the economy is not good, the value of the currency should fall and exports should increase. However, since these countries are constantly selling resources, the value of their currency goes up and down regardless of the economic downturn.

Naturally, the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry is inevitably weakened. That is why countries with enormous resources suffer a great slump in manufacturing.

In any case, it is fortunate that the economy runs in this way, but in an economic structure that relies only on specific resources, if prices drop sharply or are exhausted, the entire country will collapse.

The Republic of Nauru and Venezuela are prime examples. Although not to this extent, Russia, Brunei, and Saudi Arabia are also suffering from the drop in oil prices.

“Of course, not all countries with resources fall under this curse, and there are, in rare cases, countries that have escaped the curse.”

The United States produces huge amounts of shale oil and shale gas, along with numerous other resources, but it accounts for insignificant amounts of the total US economy. And since all of the resources produced can be consumed domestically, there is no reason to be subject to the resource curse.

When the economy becomes as large as the United States in the first place, the general theory is bound to go beyond that.

And Britain, the Netherlands, and Norway, which have oil fields in the North Sea, were able to overcome them thanks to their efforts such as creating a sovereign wealth fund with the money they sold oil and gas and nurturing high value-added industries.

These countries are characterized by having a democratic decision-making system that can rationally distribute the profits from resources. Because of this, they can rather grow using resources as a foothold.

Countries that do not do so suffer from severe conflicts or, in extreme cases, civil wars over resource ownership.

In a way, the reason Korea’s manufacturing industry was able to grow like this was probably because of the lack of resources.

I looked up related videos with Taek-gyu.

The moment the hurricane hit, the house and garage were shattered and soared into the sky. The site that had been swept away was completely ruined.

Taehyung opened his mouth wide.

“The scale of the typhoon is different in Cheonjo-guk.”

Typhoon, hurricane, cyclone.

Although the names are different depending on the region where they occur, they are all the same tropical cyclones.

Around this time each year, the United States suffers from the threat of hurricanes. When you see a hurricane or tornado swept by in the United States, it is beyond imagination.

The most famous hurricane was Katrina, which struck New Orleans in 2005. The hurricane that hit the southern United States submerged the entire city, killed nearly 2,000 and displaced more than 50,000.

“Hasn’t there been such a huge hurricane that has ever made landfall in Europe?”

Hurricanes usually sweep through the southern United States. However, it is not uncommon to move toward Europe according to the direction of the wind.

“Professor Mohan’s book had something like this.”

The Big One is the largest earthquake in the 21st and 20th centuries. Naturally, this has had a huge impact on the environment and ecosystem.

Prof. Mohan argued that changes in the topography of the seabed and geothermal heat should be closely monitored, as it is not known what the consequences will be.

He may have been a heretic in the academic world before, but now that he has become an authority, his opinions were immediately accepted and the budget and manpower were executed.

Just as the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil can become a tornado hitting the United States, given the circumstances, there is no law that prevents a hurricane from hitting the North Sea oil field.

Aside from these reasons, the most important thing is that foreknowledge was shown.

“When is that hurricane coming?”

“Now we have to find out.”

Typhoons and hurricanes are named in order from a pre-established list. So if you know the name, you can predict when it will come.

“What happens when a hurricane hits the North Sea oil field?”

“Aren’t oil prices going to go up?”

A few years ago, when a hurricane swept the Gulf Coast, oil prices soared as the region’s oil and natural gas production fell by more than 30 percent.

If this hurricane destroys the North Sea oil field, oil prices will continue for quite some time.

Then will the offshore plant be in the spotlight again?

As our investment is large, we cannot afford it in most markets, but it is a different story in the oil market.

Another great opportunity to earn money.

“Shall we take this opportunity to get a share for free?”

* * *

I contacted Chairman Im Jin-yong.

“The OTK Company will also invest money in the acquisition of Daehoo Shipbuilding.”

He was taken aback by my words.

[Is that true?]

“We will take over half of the stake in Korea Development Bank, and we will hand over the management rights to the Seosung Group.”

After negotiations, the sale price of Daehu Shipbuilding was set at a 20 percent discount from the closing price.

As the contract was signed in advance, OTK Company took over half of the stake in Korea Development Bank, and this stake was converted into shares of Seosung Heavy Industries after the merger between Daehoo Shipbuilding and Seosung Heavy Industries.

OTK Company became the second largest shareholder of Seosung Heavy Industries, and Seosung Heavy Industries took the management rights.

When the contract was signed, Korea Development Bank announced that it had succeeded in recovering 970 billion won of public funds.

As the days passed, the heat wave got worse and worse.

As this is not just a case of Korea, the death toll has been increasing in Europe, and mass deaths of fish have also occurred. In California, wildfires have been burning without being caught for over a week, threatening residential areas.

Sangyeop senior said.

“As instructed, I placed bets on crude oil futures, spot and related stocks.”

“Well done.”

“But are oil prices really going up?”

“Otherwise, you will lose hundreds of millions of dollars.”

“I made a lot of money by selling cryptocurrency anyway, so it doesn’t matter if I lose a little.”

Of course, even if I say this, I have no intention of losing anything, just like me and Sangyeop senior.

“Wait. From what Professor Mohan said, there is a high possibility of extreme weather events due to abnormal high temperature phenomena and changes in topography and geothermal heat caused by the Big One.”

* * *

Hurricane Red Kay occurred in the east of the North Atlantic Ocean and moved toward northern Europe.

Meteorologists all predicted that the hurricane would dissipate as it moved through the North Atlantic Ocean.

But what is this?

Rather, Red K devoured other low pressures in the vicinity and grew in size. The speed of movement also increased, and the wind speed reached 300 km/h.(Read more @ wuxiax.com)

Realizing that the situation was Awakened, the England Meteorological Agency hastily issued a supreme advisory. Ships and planes were banned from sailing, and some schools were closed.

Fortunately or unfortunately, the hurricane moved away from Ireland and the mainland of England, and there were no feared casualties.

However… … .

[The North Sea oil field plant is damaged in the aftermath of the hurricane!][North Sea, oil spill. Concerned about damage to neighboring countries!][British Oil and Gas Agency closes some oil fields][The Norwegian government, after reviewing the damage situation… … ]

Oil prices, which had been shaken by concerns about production disruptions due to the hurricane, reacted immediately as soon as the news spread.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 22 percent from the previous day to $92.61 a barrel, and on the London ICE Futures Exchange, Brent crude futures soared to $112.67 a barrel.

Subsea oil field mining has begun to stretch again due to facility damage in the North Sea oil field and skyrocketing oil prices. Inquiries about offshore plants as well as LNG ships continued.

Chairman Im Jin-yong immediately flew to England to find out the exact situation.

The amount of money earned by betting on crude oil and related stocks was several times more than the amount of the stake acquisition.

Meteorologists have been belatedly chasing after the extreme heat caused by global warming if it is an anomaly that swept over the northern hemisphere.

Aviation and shipping stocks fell due to the surge in oil prices, while shipbuilding and heavy industry stocks, which are expected to benefit, rose at the same time.

When this happened, some civic groups criticized it, saying that it caused a loss to the country by selling Daehu Shipbuilding at a low price, preferential treatment to Seoseong Group and OTK Company, but the bus had already left.

If you know it that well, you criticize it before you sell it.

* * *

The country that has been hit the hardest is the UK.

As the North Sea oil field collapsed and crude oil spilled while the Brexit negotiations were already struggling, the British financial market slumped again.

The stock price of Royal Dutch Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, fell sharply on the prospect that it would take more than half a year to recover from the damage.

The British were outraged when OTK Company again swept the money in a situation where most financial companies and investors suffered losses.

“How many times has this bastard robbed England?”

Strictly speaking, Jin-hoo Kang did not cause a hurricane, and the amount of direct investment in the UK was small, but there was nothing that happened to him during Brexit.

A mansion in Buckinghamshire near London.

The beautiful blonde woman accepted the data. It contained the flow of OTK Company’s funds in the international financial market.

She reviewed it and her eyes lit up.

One or two times may be a coincidence, but the fact that the same thing happens over and over again is not explained by the word coincidence.

She remembered a man with whom she had a brief conversation in New York. On the surface, he is just an ordinary Asian young man, but… …

Grace Rothschild mumbled.

“Are there really people in the world who are chosen by fate?”