Investor That Can See The Future

Chapter 183

California is currently in a state of insecurity, and the media has been calling in experts every day to discuss the possibility of an earthquake.

Professor Mohan wouldn’t have cared much if he had made the argument on his own. The argument can be made by anyone. But no one can bet on it.

I was willing to bet, and it supported Professor Mohan’s argument.

If the earthquake is true, countermeasures must be taken. If not, we’ll have to stop the rumors from spreading any more.

That’s why Ronald invited us to the White House with the idea of ​​hearing it in person.

I connected my laptop to the TV and played the PPT.

Professor Mohan started explaining with a trembling voice.

“Uh, um… … Everyone knows that San Francisco is a dangerous place for earthquakes.”

I handed over the PPT following Professor Mohan’s beckoning.

“On April 18, 1906, there was an earthquake of 8.3, which killed more than 3,000 people. And on October 17, 1989, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake occurred, killing 63 people and injuring 3700. But the Big One will not even compare to the previous two earthquakes.”

Advisor Krill asked a question.

“Isn’t the opinion of other experts different? Everyone said there was no chance of an earthquake.”

Professor Mohan nodded his head.

“When you consider only the San Andreas Fault, yes. The fault is 800 miles long, but for an earthquake greater than M9.0 to occur… … .”

The explanation was long, but in short, the fault length was too short to cause a major earthquake.

However, he talked about the spread of the Hayward Fault and raised the possibility that an earthquake could occur on both faults at the same time.

Strike Fault, Inverse Fault, Conservation Boundary, Convergence Boundary, Strike Slide, etc.

There were complicated explanations that were incomprehensible, but the conclusion was simple anyway. Big One is coming.

asked Vice President Bauer.

“How big are you talking about?”

“I kept simulating until I came here. More than M9.5, according to my expectations.”

For reference, the Great East Japan Earthquake was M9.1. However, more earthquakes hit the entire San Francisco area.

“Comparing the cycles of the two faults, it is most likely to occur at the end of September. If the Big One comes from the current situation, the casualties will be over 1 million.”

There was silence in the conference room for a while.

Moments later, Secretary of State Anderson asked absurdly.

“Does it make sense to say that there are over a million people?”

Professor Mohan said calmly.

“Approximately 140,000 people died in the Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923, about 300,000 people died in the Haiti earthquake in 2010, about 20,000 people died in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, and about 30,000 people were killed in the Nepal earthquake in 2015. Is there any place with more skyscrapers and a higher population density than San Francisco?”

The state capital of California is Sacramento.

But even for Americans, when they think of California’s famous cities, LA, San Francisco, and Silicon Valley come to mind first.

If there is a major earthquake in the area that causes high-rise buildings with earthquake-resistant design to collapse one after another, the number of casualties of 1 million is not an exaggerated figure.

“So what can I do?”

Professor Mohan divided the danger zone into three areas.

First of all, San Francisco and Silicon Valley, which are in the center of the epicenter, are Area 1, Oakland, San Leandro, and Fremont, which are opposite San Francisco Bay and span the Hayward Fault, are Area 2, and their suburban cities and surrounding beaches. A area 3.

“Declaring the A1 areas of San Francisco and Silicon Valley as disaster zones, and evacuating all residents.”

Vice President Bauer asked with excitement.

“Are you going to force the villagers to go away?”

If I tell you to leave your house and run away, how many people will follow you?

It was sarcastic enough, but Professor Mohan calmly explained it.

“First, all government offices and schools should be closed. Businesses and shops must be forcibly shut down, and residents must be moved to shelters.”

No matter how evacuated, it is impossible to introduce the entire city. And the evacuation of residents is limited to A1 only.

“For areas A2 and A3, measures should be taken to immediately rescue in the event of a disaster. The public and private military must cooperate to prepare for readiness. We need to move all available rescue workers, medical staff, all resources to California, and send in the Federal and National Guard.”

Everyone was at a loss for words about moving them to the military.

But it doesn’t end here.

“This alone is not enough. We need to secure civilian rescuers, requisition all necessary materials and equipment, and send them to the rescue.”

Words are so easy However, none of them were easy to put into practice.

Krill adviser said.

“Are you sure you know how much the economic loss is?”

I will do it because I don’t know.

In fact, the reason Teacher Mohan can make such a strong argument is that he is a seismologist, not an economist.

He didn’t care much about the chaos and economic losses that the evacuation would cause. He was only concerned about the loss of life that the earthquake would cause.

However, this is not the case for state operators. The economic and political losses caused by evacuation cannot but be considered first.

Losses are divided into omissions and omissions.

‘Loss due to omission’ is a loss that occurs when a certain action is taken, and ‘loss due to omission’ is a loss that occurs when a certain action is not taken.

Humans are much more sensitive to loss by action.

That’s why you can’t sell stocks that have plummeted. The loss caused by not selling can be tolerated, but the loss caused by the rebound of the sold stock is difficult to bear.

Nevertheless, if an earthquake is certain to occur, it is natural to evacuate. Evacuating rather than sitting still and getting hit by an earthquake will reduce losses.

However, while the losses from evacuation are 100% certain, the probability of an earthquake is uncertain.

It means that you have to pay a certain loss to avoid an uncertain loss.

San Francisco and Silicon Valley are the most productive places in the United States, along with Wall Street. Closing it down and evacuating it would do a huge blow to the US economy.

Vice President Bauer looked at me and said sarcastically.

“North Korea has nuclear weapons and missiles that it can fire at Seoul at any time, and even threatens to fire it. But why did you come here and do this without going to the president of Korea and asking for the citizens of Seoul to be evacuated?”

As he said, North Korea is raising a sense of crisis by shouting at the sea of ​​fire because it is a nuclear attack every day.

Koreans don’t really care because it’s become chronic, but foreigners don’t think so. Some Korean singers’ performances have been canceled or postponed, and some countries have advised people not to travel to Korea.

Everyone’s eyes turned to me.

I responded calmly, even though I felt nervous.

“Nuclear missiles can be stopped before North Korea fires them, but there is no way to stop earthquakes. Knowing in advance and preparing for it is the only solution.”

Vice President Bauer laughed.

“So that’s why they bought raw materials like that.”

“You may not have heard that we are also buying disaster supplies and relief supplies. If nothing happens, they will just be garbage.”

I didn’t mean to do that, but without realizing it, it became a sarcastic fight. Vice President Bauer frowned, but could not refute my words.

It is true that raw material prices have skyrocketed recently.

But that’s because I bought it to the end, and if I start selling it again, the price is sure to drop again. It’s probably hard to get the right price for what you bought. If you subtract the money you spend to buy disaster supplies and relief supplies, you’re sure to lose money.

Of course, the media does not mention such a point at all, and is just accusing it of speculation. It would be more convenient for the person writing the article or the person reading it.

An hour-long briefing was over.

Ronald, who had been sitting silently with his arms crossed since the beginning until now, nodded his head and said.

“I heard you. Just let me go.”

we came out

As the conference room door closed, Professor Mohan sighed.

“Sigh.”

Then he asked me in a trembling voice.

“Did I do something wrong?”

“Good job.”

Just letting the federal government know about the risk of a major earthquake in advance is a great achievement.

When I returned to the waiting room, Taek-gyu asked with a yawn.

“What did you say?”

“I do not know yet.”

How long did you wait?

A staff member came in and told me.

“Follow me.”

“Only me?”

I was called back to the conference room by myself.

The others returned to their respective positions, leaving only Vice Presidents Ronald and Bauer remaining. Neither of them looked very good.

said Ronald.

“We will raise awareness about earthquakes and consider evacuation drills.”

I shook my head.

“That is not enough. You need to come up with more concrete measures.”

Vice President Bauer looked at me with sharp eyes.

“Are you ignoring the US government now? You seem to be misunderstanding your position, how about just doing that? You should know that you’re showing great patience just by putting up with what you’ve been doing. I will take care of the necessary measures, so please go back to Korea.”

Vice President Bauer stood up first. He patted me on the shoulder before going outside.

“If you do anything that further spreads the problem, then you better be prepared.”

Ronald didn’t say much about Vice President Bauer’s warning. Perhaps his thoughts are similar.

I told Ronald.

“If an earthquake really happens, what will you do?”

he questioned me

“Then what if it doesn’t happen? You’re just gonna throw some money and you’re done. But in this case someone must be held accountable for the political and economic losses.”

That responsibility, of course, rests with the president.

Ronald looked very tired.

“If you’ve read the news, you’re probably familiar with how politics is going now.”

He criticized the weaknesses of previous presidents and was elected with the image of a strong man.

But in reality, nothing was going right.

North Korea is threatening to launch nuclear missiles at South Korea and the United States, the US-China trade conflict has intensified, and the Syrian crisis shows no sign of resolution.

Many of his ambitious policies did not pass Parliament.

Russian scandals, which have been raised since the beginning of his inauguration, have continued to hamper, and more recently, a sex scandal.

The women who had had sex with him in the past revealed the facts to the media.

As you can see from the Lewinsky case, Americans are tolerant of personal privacy.

However, the sex scandal that broke out at a time when approval ratings were already falling was clearly a bad news.

CNN and NBC, famous for having a bad relationship with Ronald, criticized it harshly. Adultery is also an affair, but it greatly emphasized the fact that he paid money to keep his mouth shut.

“… … .”

So why is the wind blowing? … .(Read more @ wuxiax.com)

In less than a year since taking office, his approval rating has already fallen to 25 percent. Considering that it is not the term of office and the approval rate for the first year, this is the worst report card. There are still zealots left, but you never know how far they will go.

For now, Ronald is eating away at Republican approval ratings. There were rumors within the party that a midterm election could not be guaranteed, and there was even a movement to consider leaving the party.

It is, in fact, suffering from all kinds of political ills.

“Honestly, I don’t understand. What the hell are you doing this for? Is it to make a profit? Or did he really have an earthquake and collapse and then go crazy?”

I answered briefly.

“Because this is the right thing to do.”

“That’s right… … .”

Ronald said with a bitter smile.

“Remember when we first met you said you’d cash out a kiosk?”

“Yes.”

I made his promise a reality right away, and he became president.

“Then you will understand. Ballots are useless in politics. If you want to convince me, bring me some cash.”

“… … .”

Are you asking me to come up with a solid reason?

The only evidence I have is Professor Mohan’s claim. I can’t tell you about wisdom. (If I tell you, you won’t believe me)

I expected it to some extent, but when it actually happened, I felt a bit bitter.

I sighed inwardly and nodded my head.

“I know what you mean.”

Returning to the waiting room, Professor Mohan jumped up and asked.

“What did the president say?”

I passed on Ronald’s words.

Professor Mohan seemed dead, and Carey tried to comfort him.

“I’m glad they said they are considering evacuation drills though.”

* * *

Professor Mohan and Carey went back to the California Institute of Technology, and we moved to San Francisco.

As public opinion about us was not very good, as soon as we got out of the airport, the bodyguards got into the car and went straight to the hotel. And he didn’t even go out of it.

Taek-gyu asked.

“Are you really going to do it?”

I looked out the window.

San Francisco is still peaceful. Cars filled the road, and people were busy.

“Huh. We have to make Ronald move.”