Into Unscientific

  Chapter 530 Shocks a little traveler in this era (Part 2)

be honest.

  Because of vocal cord burns.

  Xu Yun's voice was a little hoarse at this time, and the volume wasn't too loud, and it even sounded a little strenuous.

  But in Lao Guo's ears, his words exploded like a thunderbolt, shaking away all his previous sentimentality and regret.

  “.”

  Old Guo turned his head mechanically, fixed his eyes on Xu Yun, and asked word by word:

   "Xiao Han, what did you just say?"

  Under emotional excitement.

  He even gave up the title of "Comrade Han Li".

   After all, what Xu Yun said

   is not just a simple interrogative sentence.

  [As long as] and [is enough] Although the two words seem a little underwhelming, they indicate another thing.

That is.

  In Xu Yun's view, data of this magnitude does not seem to be a big problem!

  Think here.

  Old Guo couldn't help swallowing, and quickly added:

   "Xiao Han, do you mean that you have a way to make up for this difference in quantity?"

  Xu Yun was not surprised by Lao Guo's gaffe. In fact, a large part of his calmness at this time was pretended, and he was not much more relaxed than Lao Guo.

   Fortunately, the scars on his disfigured face now have a natural anti-peeping effect, so he nodded calmly:

   "Exactly."

  Old Guo heard that his breathing stagnated again, and his pupils constricted suddenly.

  If Lin Yu hadn't left the room at this time and measured Lao Guo's heart rate with an ECG monitor, he would have found that Lao Guo's heart rate had gone straight to 200.

  However, Lao Guo didn't feel any abnormality in his body, but continued to stare at Xu Yun.

  As if wanting to nail him into the wall with his gaze.

  Although he proposed the idea of ​​contacting Xu Yun at the meeting, this does not mean that he himself has much confidence in Xu Yun.

  He only knows that there must be a very powerful community behind Xu Yun, and the cost of doing so is relatively low:

   It was just telling Xu Yun the "truth" in the factory that was supposed to be told four or five months in advance.

   Anyway, it doesn’t cost money, so try a little bit.

   As a result, I didn't expect that this test really got a response?

   Then Lao Guo took a deep breath, adjusted his breath, forced himself to calm down, and said to Xu Yun:

   "Dare to ask Comrade Han Li, is the method you said is to send more manpower? Use manpower to expand data?"

   Mentioned earlier.

  Currently, there are hundreds of people and more than 20 pieces of equipment in charge of data collection in the base.

  If simply multiplying their number by one hundred thousand times, it obviously meets the requirements in mathematics, but it cannot be applied in reality.

  Old Guo has reason to suspect that Xu Yun would take such a trick, and then said a joke.

   But what made Lao Guo relax a little.

  Xu Yun quickly shook his head, denying this guess:

"of course not."

   "So it takes a long time?"

   "No, if you go all out, it will take three or four days if it is fast, or seven or eight days if it is slow."

   "So it takes a lot of money?"

   "Well, the cost is definitely necessary, but isn't our factory producing machinery and equipment? The total cost is about the total cost of five or six transport vehicles."

  The price of a CA10 transport truck these years is about 8,000 yuan, the total price of five transport vehicles is close to 40,000 yuan, and the cost is about 25,000 to 30,000 yuan.

Of course.

  Due to the serious disruption of the domestic industrial level, the cost of these transport vehicles cannot be directly compared with the standard salary to compare purchasing power.

   After all, a Changjiu bicycle now costs 200 yuan. A worker needs to save up for ten months without food or drink.

  If these costs must be converted.

   Probably equivalent to 150 to 2 million later generations.

be honest.

  This kind of funds is not a small amount for the base.

  But in the face of the problems we are facing right now, they are so small that they can be ignored—the thermocouple humidity meter sent from the capital alone costs tens of thousands of dollars.

  Think here.

  Old Guo's expression suddenly became extremely solemn.

   He straightened his body, put down the water glass, and said to Xu Yun sincerely:

   "Comrade Han Li, to tell you the truth, the base is indeed in a very embarrassing situation in terms of weather."

   "If the problem of weather forecasting is not resolved, the base's future plans will be extremely passive, and the progress will be greatly delayed."

   "So Comrade Han Li, I ask you from my personal point of view, can you inform the base of this plan?"

   "Of course, you are not a party member, and you don't need to emphasize dedication like us, so you can put forward any conditions or needs, and we will definitely try our best to meet them"

   "You don't have to ask for it."

  Xu Yun waved his hand when he heard the words, and interrupted the second half of Lao Guo's sentence:

   "Guo Gong, there is an old saying in China, which is called "the kindness of saving life should be tied with grass, so that you can repay your kindness."

   "If Guogong hadn't rescued me from the fire, I would have been burned into a carbon chicken creature now, and I went to buy half the price of the second monument with others."

   "Besides, the hospital also spent so many precious medicines on me and arranged such a good ward for me. I haven't paid the medical expenses yet."

   When talking about medical expenses, Xu Yun deliberately winked at Lao Guo.

  Old Guo is a down-to-earth kind person, and upon hearing this, an unnatural look appeared on his face.

  However, this look was only fleeting, and he quickly returned to his usual look, and the whole person suddenly relaxed a lot:

   "Comrade Han Li, I am very pleased that you have this awareness. As for the matter of saving lives, I think any capable person will lend a helping hand at that time."

   "In short, don't worry, if your plan is really useful, the organization will definitely not treat you badly."

  Xu Yun responded with a smile, but did not answer.

  He knew that Lao Guo's remarks were not perfunctory to himself. Rabbits have always rewarded members who have contributed to their work.

  However, the rewards these days are basically inseparable from clothing or food, and that's the case for Xu Yun, who came from later generations.

Of course.

  Although Xu Yun didn't feel much about these rewards, this favor must be done.

  Afterwards, he also adjusted his posture on the bed to make himself more comfortable when leaning on the bed, before he said:

   "Comrade Guo, before explaining my plan, I have a question that I want to confirm."

  Old Guo made a gesture of invitation:

   "But it's okay to say."

  Xu Yun nodded and asked:

   "Comrade Guo, if I can really provide a method to collect 100,000 times the data, how can you complete the analysis of them?"

   "Weather data is highly time-sensitive, so much data is piled up with people to calculate."

   "Oh, you said this."

  Old Guo Wenyan smiled, with a casual expression on his face, and pointed to the north with his hand:

   "It's not difficult. Our factory's uranium mining is considered a relatively important project in the country. There is a 103 electronic tube computer in the capital for remote assistance."

   "The data we collected before is only more than 5,000 sets, and if it is 100,000 times that, it is 500 million sets. It will not take too much time for the computer to calculate."

   "So compared to the specific calculation process, how to collect a large amount of data is a big problem."

   Finished speaking.

  Lao Guo touched his nose subconsciously.

  This passage is actually one of the calibers that the Standing Committee of the base came up with, and some of the content is not true.

  For example, in a special building in Yanjing, there is indeed a computer assisting Factory 221 in remote computing.

   But that machine is not the 103 that has been made public, but the mysterious 104.

Up to now.

  There are only two 104 machines that have been produced in China.

  One was provided to the Second Ministry of Machinery, which was engaged in the atomic bomb, and the other was provided to the Seventh Ministry of Machinery, which made rockets.

   This situation will not improve until the J501 computer of the East China Institute of Computing comes out several years later.

   But there is a saying that Lao Guo did not lie.

   That is, as long as enough data can be collected, they can indeed use computers to assist in calculating the data.

  Currently, 60% of the 104 computer computing time is used for nuclear weapon research and development, and the rest is shared and used by other projects of the Second Ministry of Machinery.

  That is, the 104 machine of the Second Ministry of Machinery has nearly 15 hours a day, which can be used for the calculation of nuclear weapon-related data.

  The computing power of the 104 machine is 10,000 times per second, and the calculation time of 500 million groups is 50,000 seconds, which is about 13.9 hours in conversion.

at the same time.

  Currently, the research and development of nuclear weapons is still in the early stage, and some data are relatively not so urgent, and sometimes it even takes less time to count.

  So in front of the construction of the detonation test site, the 104 aircraft was allowed to free up 13.9 hours to calculate the weather, and there was no problem in terms of conditions.

Of course.

  The premise of this matter is that .

  Xu Yun can really collect 100,000 times more data.

   Seeing that Lao Guo moved out the computer, Xu Yun also had a bottom line in his mind.

   He took a deep breath, organized his words, and asked Lao Guo:

   "Comrade Guo, you should know that the essence of the so-called meteorological forecast is to use mathematical and physical equations to model the state of the atmosphere, and to obtain the future weather state by solving the equations."

   "It's just that complex parameterized physical models are always incomplete, and the parameterization of physical processes will inevitably introduce systematic errors into numerical prediction."

  Old Guo nodded.

   Well known.

  Weather forecasting has gone through two stages since its development.

   That is, the stage of metaphysics and the stage of science.

  A common method in the metaphysics stage is divination.

  Generally, Aba Aba shakes the tortoise shell first, and then slams it on the ground with a splash, so as to deduce the so-called will of heaven.

  In some savage periods, this kind of ritual was often accompanied by sacrifices and praying for rain.

   But on the other hand.

   Metaphysics stage is not useless.

  For example, our country summed up the twenty-four solar terms as early as more than 2,000 years ago, which mainly guide agricultural production and marching and fighting.

  The weather proverbs that have been handed down to this day can also reflect the early people's concern for weather forecasting.

  For example, "the morning glow does not go out, the sunset glow travels thousands of miles", "the sky is hooked with clouds, and the ground is drenched with rain" and so on.

   But over time.

  After the thermometer, hygrometer, and barometer were invented, and the theory of fluid dynamics was developed.

  Weather forecasting gradually began to change to the direction of applied science.

  However, it is the .

   War.

   That's right.

   War.

   Students who participated in World War I should know it.

   During World War I.

  There were some conflicts between the United Kingdom and Norway, so the British government, which was the absolute leader in meteorology, decided to impose punishment on Norway.

  At that time, there were 27 observation stations in the UK, and there were only 8 in Norway, 27 to 8, and I had the advantage!

  So the British went up to A and refused to provide weather data to Norway.

   But the Norwegian government did not give up.

  Starting from only 8 observation stations, they made efforts in the fields of meteorological monitoring, meteorological talents, theoretical research, etc., and achieved the subsequent famous .

  Norwegian school.

   That's right.

   This is how the Norwegian School came about.

   Open any current "Principles of Synoptics" book, the circulation theory, cyclone structure, cyclone life history, cold and warm fronts, air masses, etc. all come from the Norwegian school.

  At the same time, it is Pieknes, the soul of the Norwegian school, who invented the numerical weather forecast that has influenced the present.

   After that, it went through shocking operations by meteorologists like Rossby, Charlie, Von Neumann, etc.

  Early 1954.

  The first numerical weather forecasting occurred in Stockholm, Sweden.

   And numerical weather prediction.

   Given the initial and boundary conditions, numerical methods are used to solve the atmospheric motion equations, so that the atmospheric state at the known initial moment can be used to predict the atmospheric state in the future.

   That is, it is assumed that there is a closed equation system, which contains various meteorological element variables and the changes of these variables with time (/t).

  As long as the values ​​of various variables can be measured or calculated—such as air temperature, air pressure, atmospheric density, wind speed, etc., the changes of these variables over time can be calculated.

  The value of these variables at the next time point can also be calculated.

   So back and forth, you can do the weather forecast.

  But because /t is a differential, if you want to replace the differential with the difference, the integration step size cannot be too long—because the data of the observed atmosphere has errors.

  Once the integration time is long enough, these errors will be infinitely magnified, and the weather forecast made will be inaccurate.

   These contents are very simple and easy to understand.

   So fast.

  Old Guo nodded in understanding, and wrote down part of the atmospheric wave equation on paper.

   Seeing that Lao Guo could keep up with his thoughts, Xu Yun continued to say:

   "Guo Gong, you are a smart person, so you must have already guessed something."

   "That is, if you want to increase the amount of data collected by 100,000 times, it is impossible to rely on manual collection alone, and you must use some kind of equipment."

  Old Guo nodded.

   This is actually one of the reasons why some leaders objected to asking Xu Yun.

  Except for the tricky answer that doubles the number of people by 100,000 times, to complete this step, a brand new instrument must be needed.

  It is too difficult to expect a returnee like Xu Yun to master this kind of technology.

   Then Lao Guo hesitated for a moment, and asked tentatively:

   "Comrade Han Li, could it be that the equipment you mentioned refers to the weather satellite?"

   About a year ago, Tyros 1, the first weather satellite in human history, was launched across the sea.

  Tyros 1 orbited the earth 1,135 times in a near-circular orbit at a height of 700 kilometers. The operation time was 78 days, and a total of 22,952 cloud images and terrain photos were taken, which played an extremely important role in meteorological research.

From then on.

  The concept of weather satellites has entered the field of vision of various countries.

   I want to come in Lao Guo.

  The only instruments that can greatly increase the amount of data acquired should be meteorological satellites.

  But to his surprise.

  Xu Yun shook his head lightly, and denied:

   "Of course not. Meteorological satellites may have a good information auxiliary effect on a large-scale grid, but it is very difficult for small-scale weather forecasts."

   "Actually, for the meteorological system, besides the direct detection method, there is another special way to 'capture' them."

   "Another way? Capture?"

  Old Guo was stunned subconsciously, and couldn't help repeating these two words.

   After a while.

  Boom—

  A flash of lightning suddenly flashed in his mind.

  While the flash of lightning made his scalp numb, he couldn't help but suddenly raised his head and looked at Xu Yun:

   "Comrade Han Li, what you said is true."

  Xu Yun nodded, with a smile on the corner of his mouth:

   "Yes, the Doppler effect."

   By the way, let’s talk about an update.

   There will be an update at the end of the month, and there will be an update in May (it is still the kind of vest defense battle). In order to avoid some readers saying that they can’t do it and boasting, I have been saving manuscripts recently.

   In addition, a biopsy result of the laryngoscope came out, but the lymphatic hyperplasia was not a tumor. I was so nervous these days.

  (end of this chapter)