Imperial Master of the Ming Dynasty

Zhu Di nodded slightly when he heard this and praised: "Xia Qing is as careful as his hair."

Xia Yuanji quickly stood up and saluted.

"Your Majesty is so complimentary."

Zhu Di's smile made the wrinkles on his face appear.

"Then let's explain the prisoner game of the Japanese pirates, Li Qing."

"Ah, ah?"

Li Zhigang was so surprised by the emperor's change of conversation that he almost doubted his own ears.

However, seeing the emperor looking at him, Li Zhigang could only work out his thoughts. Although he had never heard of the last 'Japanese pirates' silver game', he had heard the rough background story. .

I don't know if Li Zhigang has been a prisoner for too long, or if he really has some sharp thinking, but Li Zhigang actually started to deduce it in a very methodical manner.

"Your Majesty, we might as well consider the problem from the perspective of the Japanese pirates."

Li Zhigang spoke very slowly, obviously trying to buy time for his own derivation.

"Because of the isolation interrogation, the Bing Japanese pirates definitely didn't know whether the Wu Japanese pirates refused to speak or confessed."

Listening to your words is like listening to your words.

Everyone was quite speechless. Obviously this was Li Zhigang's nonsense, and he probably hadn't fully understood it yet.

"So the Japanese pirates can only be sure of one thing."

Li Zhigang clapped his fingers: "The Wu Japanese pirates have only two choices, refuse to speak, or confess."

Zhu Di soon realized that this sentence was really not nonsense.

"If the Wu Japanese pirates remained silent and refused to speak, then I am the Bing Japanese pirates. I only need to refuse to speak as well. I only need to be imprisoned in prison for 1 year before I can be released. This is not a long time. Of course It’s something I can accept.”

There is nothing wrong with this logic. Everyone is watching Li Zhigang's next deduction.

"In this case, I actually have a better choice, which is to confess and betray the Wu Japanese pirates!"

Li Zhigang's eyes flashed with a hint of understanding and he continued.

"If I chose to betray the Wu Japanese pirates and confess to the generals of the Ming Dynasty, then in this case, I would not even have to be imprisoned for a year and could be released on the spot."

Zhu Di couldn't hold back at this time and interrupted.

"I actually have a question."

"Your Majesty, please speak."

Zhu Di thought for a moment, making sure that he would not show timidity in front of his ministers, and asked in a solemn voice.

"If we look at this issue from the perspective of the Japanese pirates, how can he be sure that the Japanese pirates will remain silent and refuse to speak? You must know that the last time on Tsushima Island, when five Japanese pirates divided 100 silver coins, they betrayed each other. , three people died, and only two of them were left alive."

"Moreover, the spoils were divided unevenly between them. The Bing Japanese pirates took away 99 silver coins, while the Wu Japanese pirates only took 1 silver coin, which is equivalent to barely saving their lives. At this time, it is difficult to expect the Wu Japanese pirates not to betray the Bing Japanese pirates, right?"

"Your Majesty can see thousands of miles away, and his eyes are as bright as a torch!" Li Zhigang was full of flattery.

Immediately afterwards, Li Zhi just continued to deduce: "As His Majesty said, it is difficult for the Bing Japanese pirates to believe that the Wu Japanese pirates will not betray them, so there are other explanations for this."

"If the Wu Japanese pirates confessed, but the Bing Japanese pirates stupidly remained silent and refused to speak, then the generals of the Ming Dynasty would put him in prison for a full 20 years. Such a long time is already the worst outcome of all options. ”

Everyone agrees with this view.

Of all the possibilities, a 20-year sentence is indeed the worst outcome.

"So, it is difficult for the Bing Japanese pirates to accept this result, which means that if the Wu Japanese pirates confess, the Bing Japanese pirates themselves should also confess, otherwise they will suffer the greatest loss. And the Bing Japanese pirates will be punished if they confess. 18 years in jail."

Li Zhigang became more and more rational.

"But even if they are imprisoned for 18 years, it is actually much better for the Japanese pirates than being imprisoned for 20 years after being refused to speak like a fool. At least they have been imprisoned for 730 days less."

Zhu Gaochi also figured it out at this time and added: "That is to say, since the Bing Japanese pirates and the Wu Japanese pirates have the same idea, then the Wu Japanese pirates will also make the same deduction in another cell, which means that , Wu Japanese pirates will also come to the conclusion."

"——Betraying your companions is the best choice!"

Hearing this result, Zhu Di couldn't help but feel a little dazed.

Dao Yan, on the other hand, completely stopped turning the rosary at this time.

——————

Under the tree next door.

After another long time, Zhu Gaoxu actually came to the same conclusion.

"The two Japanese pirates must have betrayed each other."

After saying that, Zhu Gaoxu looked at Zheng He, wanting to check the answer with Zheng He.

Zheng He also agreed with Zhu Gaoxu's statement.

"What did Mr. Jiang say?"

Jiang Xinghuo didn't say anything, but also drew something on the ground.

However, this time Jiang Xinghuo learned the lesson and picked up a thick branch instead of using his fingers. The last time he used his fingers to write, his nails were rubbed into marble patterns.

silent betrayal

Silence(1,1)(20,0)

Betrayal (0, 20) (18, 18)

"This is called the game matrix, which is all possible solutions to the Japanese pirate prisoner game."

Jiang Xinghuo pointed and said: "The silence/betrayal on the left belongs to the Bing Japanese pirates, and the silence/betrayal on the top belongs to the Wu Japanese pirates."

"Here it is said that the Bing Japanese pirates and the Wu Japanese pirates jointly chose to betray each other. In fact, from a personal point of view, it is not wrong. After all, everyone will give priority to their own interests, and the Bing Japanese pirates and the Wu Japanese pirates are no longer [ Absolute rationality], that is, it is almost impossible to choose to remain silent and refuse to speak at the same time, leading to the ending of (1, 1).”

"So, both the Bing Japanese pirates and the Wu Japanese pirates knew that betraying the other was the better choice, no matter what the other Japanese pirate did."

"But the problem is that betraying the other party, not from a personal point of view, but from a result point of view, neither of them benefited from it, they just managed to equal the other party's losses."

Jiang Xinghuo pointed to (18, 18) and explained: "This is the standard outcome of the Japanese pirate prisoner game. The participants in the Japanese pirate game follow the strategy of mutual betrayal and pay the price at the same time. This is the so-called Nash equilibrium."

"Is that equilibrium?"

Zheng He muttered this strange name.

"The meaning is that this will balance it." Zhu Gaoxu explained.

"Oh, that's it." Zheng He stroked his beard slightly.

Jiang Xinghuo was too lazy to explain and couldn't explain. In fact, he should change his title, but for a while, he really couldn't think of any particularly suitable title.

"For this balance, neither the Bing Japanese pirates nor the Wu Japanese pirates will regret it, because if any Japanese pirate does not confess and changes his mind to remain silent and refuses to speak, then he will be sentenced to 20 years in prison. He will lose in the game and have regrets. Lifelong, that is, heading towards the ending of (20, 0) or (0, 20)."

"What this balance means is that the problem is not the outcome of the game between the two parties, but that even if the player knows the other party's choice, he will still not regret it."

"In fact, we all know from the perspective of bystanders that this equilibrium is unwise, because if two people can [trust each other], then they could have been imprisoned for only 1 year, but in the end they were both imprisoned for 18 years .”

"In other words, every Japanese pirate made the best choice, but the result was that both sides suffered losses."

"Therefore, the 'Japanese Prisoner Game' can draw an obvious conclusion."

Jiang Xinghuo said slowly: "When people face competing interests, it is extremely difficult to [trust each other], but it is extremely easy to betray each other."

"When we talked about state power before, you should have discovered that the behavior between countries is actually the same as the behavior between people, right?"

Zhu Gaoxu and Zheng He nodded.

"Then we can draw a conclusion that there is also a 'Japanese prisoner game' between countries, especially between competitive countries. This game I call the 'big power security dilemma'."

Jiang Xinghuo said slowly.

“Given that it is difficult for a country to determine how much power is sufficient for this year, next year, the year after, and even the year after next, major powers realize that the best way to ensure their security is to strive to become a hegemon now, so that It eliminates the possibility of challenge from any other great power. Only a confused country will feel that it has gained enough power to survive and will not seize the opportunity to become a hegemon."

"This reflects the basic logic in the first part of "Offensive Realism" in "Great Power Game Science". The essence of this dilemma is that the measurement standard used by a country to increase its own security will often reduce the security of other countries."

Zhu Gaoxu said with some awareness: "This is the same as the game between Bing Japanese pirates and Wu Japanese pirates."

Jiang Xinghuo smiled at him approvingly.

"In order to obtain security based on the basic logic of 'offensive realism,' countries will be forced to seize more and more power to avoid the power impact of other countries. But this will have consequences."

This time it was Zheng He who spoke: "It's still similar to the game between the two Japanese pirates just now. If a country attempts to seize power, it will in turn make other countries feel more insecure and force other countries to prepare for the worst. So Saying that no country can feel completely secure begins a vicious cycle of pursuing security.”

Well, in modern times this vicious cycle is often referred to as an arms race.

——————

"It sounds like this is similar to the Spring and Autumn Hegemony?" Zhu Di thought thoughtfully.

Regarding "Games of Great Powers", Zhu Di's biggest concern is actually how to learn some knowledge from it to contain the Timurid Khanate, which poses an increasingly huge threat to the Ming Dynasty and is unabashedly hostile.

Timur was eight years younger than Zhu Yuanzhang. They were of the same generation, and they were also two of the most powerful men in the world.

The Timur Khanate, as early as the founding of the Ming Dynasty by Emperor Hongwu of the Ming Dynasty, had already occupied the old land of Xiliao in Hezhong Prefecture. At that time, Zhu Yuanzhang asked the Timur Khanate to pay tribute according to the old practice of the Yuan Dynasty.

At first, Timur ignored it. It was not until twenty years later, when Timur conquered Khorezm, when Zhu Di was leading his army on his first northern expedition, that Timur began to send envoys to pay tribute.

Although in official letters, Timur claimed to be a minister, Timur definitely did not want to regard the Ming Dynasty as the suzerain like Li's Korea. On the contrary, Timur continued to understand the situation and situation of the Ming Dynasty through the exchanges of envoys. national power.

In the 29th year of Hongwu, when Zhu Yuanzhang was seriously ill, Timur, who had just defeated the Golden Horde, tore off his face and detained the envoys, including both the Ming Dynasty and the Ottoman Empire.

A few years later, when Zhu Di learned from intelligence that while the Ming Dynasty was engaged in a civil war between the north and the south, and Fengtian was fighting for four years, the Timur Khanate had already defeated the Mamluk dynasty and the Ottoman Sultan.

Zhu Di quickly became vigilant.

After all, the speed of expansion of the Timur Khanate was really astonishing.

Now looking at the territory, population, soldiers, economy, etc., the Timur Khanate can not only compete with the Ming Dynasty, but also be slightly better in some aspects.

At this time, Zhu Di had just ended the Jingnan Campaign, and various domestic affairs had made him very anxious.

In fact, it was precisely because of Jiang Xinghuo's performance in cutting down the vassal that he helped him win over the vassal king, share the labor among the gentry, and propose various other policies that were helpful in quickly calming down the domestic chaos and stabilizing his rule. He will respect and value Jiang Xinghuo so much.

If Jiang Xinghuo had not brought tangible benefits to Zhu Di's imperial power, even if he was really an immortal, Zhu Di would not respect and value him so much.

"Reporting to the Emperor Father is indeed similar to the Spring and Autumn Period."

Since Dao Yan didn't speak, Zhu Gaochi naturally took over in terms of status.

Otherwise, it would be embarrassing to let Zhu Di speak alone without anyone taking notice.

"For example, the Battle of Hongshui between Song and Chu to compete for hegemony is a typical example of the game between great powers, right?"

Zhu Gaochi said slowly: "Song Xiangggong did not choose to attack halfway during the game, so he was defeated and seriously injured, and the country was ruined."

“In other words, in the game between countries, you must not [trust the other side]. Even if you know that being wary of each other will lead to mutual distrust and lead to more serious consequences, no matter what you choose, you will suffer more serious losses than your own country. Much stronger.”

Xia Yuanji also nodded slightly.

"So from the Spring and Autumn Period to the Warring States Period, wars between countries became more and more frequent. This is what Master Jiang said, this so-called vicious cycle formed by 'offensive realism.'"

"So other than this vicious cycle, is there no other way for countries to restrict each other? I mean the kind of method that can restrict each other without falling into this vicious cycle." Zhu Gaochi said thoughtfully. asked thoughtfully.

Xia Yuanji thought deeply for a moment, then slowly shook his head and said, "I haven't thought of it yet."

"What do Li Shangshu think?" Zhu Gaochi turned to Li Zhigang.

Li Zhigang said hesitantly: "Reporting to His Highness the First Prince, I didn't even expect it."

Zhu Gaochi stopped delving into it and fell into brief thought again.

Instead, it was Dao Yan who broke out of his sleepy state, opened his iconic triangular eyes, and stared at Li Zhigang for a few times.

Li Zhigang's heart beat faster when he saw it. He was extremely afraid of the old monk's viciousness.

Li Zhigang also knew that his thoughts might be seen by Dao Yan.

Just as people can use tricks and tricks to get along with each other, of course the same can be done between countries.

Li Zhigang was a master at this, so unlike Xia Yuanji, who could bully his opponents, Li Zhigang came up with many tricks almost instantly.

Unfortunately, this doesn't quite fit his position.

The Minister of Rites of the Ming Dynasty should bathe every vassal country with the glory of the Ming Dynasty. How could he have such sinister and dirty thoughts?

Something's wrong with you!

Therefore, in order to prevent his image from being too ugly in front of the emperor and the eldest prince, Li Zhigang had no choice but to hide these things in his heart.

Just as a few people were fighting, the voice from next door also came over.

"Mr. Jiang, is there no way to break this vicious cycle?"

"Of course there is, and there's more than one."

Jiang Xinghuo's warm voice floated over.