Harry Potter Morning Light

In game theory, concentrating forces to take the initiative to attack does not mean that you can take the initiative. The key is to understand the principle of information asymmetry and take action, that is, keep your actions strictly confidential and do not disclose information to the other party. Once the action deployment is known to the other party, then It will make the opponent concentrate its forces to do a good job of defense, which will bring resistance to the attack.

Therefore, many people will choose to release smoke bombs to confuse their opponents by promoting some false news and force them to make wrong decisions. For example, the South China Sea bubble, although the United Kingdom did not have control over South America, it gave the South China Sea Company the "monopoly" of South American business. The Nanhai Company released another smoke screen. They reached a settlement with Spain and obtained trading rights. The "leeks" bought junk stocks frantically. Many congressmen also bought shares in the South Sea Company, which survived for a hundred years before finally closing down.

The most critical step in subprime loans is to turn the derivative currency generated by the loan contract into bonds, and then let the investment bank buy it, and the investment bank cheats it according to the credit rating. No, it is to let the gamblers of the hedge fund buy it. Of course, the fund manager will not Lend money to a plumber to buy a house, but he is handing over the money to the investment bank. The CDO he bought was produced by ABS, not just MBS. There is an information gap. The real game is often not the next move with clear information on both sides. A fair duel, which can be described as cheating the sky and crossing the sea in the thirty-six strategies.

If it is common, there is no doubt that yin is within yang, not in opposition to yang. People and things you see often do not arouse suspicion. To hide the secret in the public, not against the public. There is often something very secret in the very public.

People will follow what the public agrees, deny their own opinions by default, and will not think about the significance of events subjectively, just like a herd of sheep, those investors who have not formed their own expectations or have not obtained first-hand information, they will invest based on other the behavior of others to change their own behavior. A flock of sheep is a very disorganized organization. They usually rush left and right blindly when they are together, but once one head sheep moves, the other sheep will rush forward without thinking, completely ignoring that there may be wolves in front of them or that they are not far away. There are better grasses everywhere.

Herd mentality can easily lead to blind obedience, and blind obedience often leads to deception or failure.

But the herd mentality is not entirely bad. Following the right people can create amazing success. In the 1970s, the pure-blood nobles were so fanatical that they believed that they followed the right people. Like real estate, it's completely irrational. If someone told the family that following Voldemort was a bad idea, the parents would be the first to object. After killing the goblins, the Death Eaters robbed the goblins of their money, and then distributed the money to the down-and-out pure blood. What a "generous" person Voldemort was.

This kind of fanaticism makes people not even afraid of dementors. Even if the Minister of Magic Harold Minkan sends more dementors to Azkaban, they can't stop them. In this wave of national fanaticism, they want to keep their heads clear It's very difficult, even if you understand it, your relatives and friends are still not sober, and instead "enlighten" you, and soon you will be assimilated by your relatives and friends, and you will feel at ease receiving those "subsidies" from unknown sources.

The school is isolated from the outside world, and the information it receives is different from the outside world. When Voldemort rose for the second time, because of the death of Albus Dumbledore, the adults had almost given up resistance. Only the DA members in the school They are still resisting in the form of guerrillas. They gave the teachers and students in the school confidence that Harry Potter will come back, and there is a chance to turn defeat into victory. Coupled with the broadcast of Potter Watch, a small number of people are still fighting for the Order of the Phoenix. At this time, people have forgotten that Muggles caught wizards and burned them at the stake in the Middle Ages, and they were charged with spreading the Black Death. How touching.

Albus Dumbledore, who is pro-Muggle, cut this part of the history, and the ghost Binns talked about the Giant War at length instead. Harry was exposed to the news of the witch trials outside the school, and he lived in the Leaky Cauldron during his third year. I often go to an ice cream shop to eat free ice cream. Since Albus became the principal, the students have become "innocent". After all, Albus's dream is to create a world where Muggles and wizards coexist peacefully in the future.

If a person has never even heard of derivative currencies and hedge funds, and blindly follows the trend of investment just looking at the rise in housing prices, this situation is essentially the same as that of the stockholders in the South Sea bubble. They are all "leeks" to be harvested, Isa Ke Newton was confiscated and lost 20,000 pounds. How could it be impossible for senior intellectuals to be harvested?

Following the trend is always there, mainly because of information asymmetry. The art of war is known, and the more you know, the better you can make an accurate judgment. Another thing is your intuition. Harry is also a person who has experienced wars. He taught How did the students use "Expelling Weapons", their eyes looked towards the door from time to time, as if they had already noticed them, so the two left the Defense Against the Dark Arts classroom immediately.

"They call him 'Professor,'" Pomona said with mock ease. "How does it feel?"

Severus ignored her.

"I felt the same way when the children called you 'Professor' for the first time, how time flies." She said with a sigh.

Thirty-four years on, her face hadn't changed much, and the younger Slytherin boy looked good enough to be her father.

The same is true for Fei Liwei. Human life is very short in the eyes of mixed-blood magical creatures. Dogs only have a lifespan of more than ten years. If you put too much emotion on a dog, it will be very uncomfortable when it dies. Too many memories and emotions are involved. , so magical creatures will deliberately keep a distance from humans, so that they can easily become bystanders, and the bystanders will be clear about the problems of some authorities.

"How are you?"

"I never doubted the old fool's judgment." Severus whispered, "I never doubted that Potter might not be a Horcrux."

"That's normal," Pomona said. "When did he miss it?"

"A person who has never made a mistake, if he makes a mistake, it will be more serious than a person who makes mistakes often. The Slytherin locket he sacrificed his life for is a fake."

When Severus said this, Pomona remembered that she could ask Harry what Dumbledore had said to him at that time.

Regulus once worshiped Voldemort like many young people of that era, but he finally woke up.

Sirius ran away from home to be angry with his mother. Regulus' situation is different. He is like the only young man in the Black family who dares to tell his family that continuing to speculate in real estate is asking for death. If he speaks out Others would take him for a fool, so he could only keep silent, not even allowing Kreacher to tell Walburga that she had been waiting for her son to come back in that old house, even if she died The soul is attached to the portrait.

Finding Regulus back was like an obsession, and she didn't know why, she was obviously not a woman from the Black family.

She and Narcissa would have been great friends if it wasn't for Severus, but they had made an unbreakable vow.

Even if Sissy died, this oath was still valid.

It seemed that Bella felt that her death was more painful to him than Severus' death.

Albus once said, "Come at me."

Whatever it was, Albus found it easier to direct the pain directly at himself than to witness it.

Unfortunately, that is a luxury.

Therefore, an unbreakable oath cannot be made casually. No wonder a good old man like Arthur got angry and beat Fred up.