celestial system of the solar system

Chapter 242 Futures First
In the steel futures market, a trader in Huaxia shorted various steel products at low prices through a certain member in the futures trading market, and established a short position of about 30 million tons after 100 days.While the trader's move surprised investors, it also attracted the attention of many predators.However, at that time, the predators only paid close attention and discussed with think tanks, but did not take clear actions.

Investors have learned from the past.

In the past, there was a national reserve copper incident in the futures market.

A certain commodity research institute predicted at the end of a certain year that the global copper supply will have a surplus of more than 10 tons in the next year.Moreover, at the annual meeting of a certain metal exchange (LME), most of the major international investment banks also predicted that the copper price will be lowered in the next year, and the market will continue to be in surplus.

Probably based on this forecast, as a big copper importer and consumer in China, a bold trader in the State Reserve Center is shorting the international market, and the amount of shorting orders is very large.

But the actual situation is that the international copper price rose against the trend, and actually created the highest record in the copper futures market in a century. Whether it is a normal change in the market or whether international speculators join forces to do more. Although it is a matter of opinion, most people actually believe that the latter is the case. More likely.

One month before the futures delivery time point, the State Reserve Bureau held four spot copper auctions in a row, which brought greater impact to the market each time.Although the State Reserve Bureau claims that the purpose of selling copper is to meet domestic copper demand and stabilize copper prices, the market prefers to believe that the State Reserve Bureau's move is to ease the pressure brought by its losses in the futures market.

In fact, although the State Reserve Bureau’s move has relieved its pressure on losses in the futures market, China is the country with the largest copper consumption and imports in the world, and it is also the country with the largest imports of copper concentrate and scrap copper.From the perspective of hedging, it is logical that Huaxia's companies should do long at low prices.A large number of short positions are not in the national interest.

In order to reduce the loss of futures trading, selling a large amount of spot copper is essentially an act of protecting the interests of the department by harming the interests of the country.

This abnormal phenomenon was actually due to the fact that some companies in Huaxia were accustomed to illegal operations at that time.At that time, there were many companies engaged in foreign futures trading in violation of regulations, and no one was severely punished.The absence of a disciplinary mechanism has made the relevant regulations of the state a piece of waste paper and lost its due binding force.

Of course, in the national reserve copper incident, the national team played out in an unexpected way, which also caused some international speculators to suffer.Therefore, international speculators are somewhat in awe of the huge energy of the Chinese national team.

Copper is a small variety of futures, and it is easy to manipulate the price.Steel is a large variety of futures, so it is very difficult to manipulate prices.

Therefore, international speculators did not dare to act rashly after discovering the abnormality.

What's more, although the trader in China has shorted a large amount, and the total amount is about 100 million tons, China is the largest producer of steel in the world.

If, like the last state copper reserve incident, the national team goes off in person again, the international speculators may not be sure to join forces.

International speculators are wondering whether to pounce on that piece of fat.However, the next morning, the trader actually continued to open short positions, and established a short position of about 100 million tons.

The international speculators were at a loss, and before they could make a decision, the trader once again established a short position of about 100 million tons in the afternoon.

Now the international speculators finally couldn't sit still.

Huaxia has suffered many losses in the futures market for many reasons.One of the important reasons is that the clumsy and stupid trading techniques have caused Huaxia enterprises to be repeatedly suppressed by international speculators.For example, in terms of risk control, Huaxia enterprises are seriously inadequate.

In the case of the National Reserve Copper incident, the National Material Reserve Adjustment Center first had a trading team, and later it was mainly engaged in trading by two traders. After that, one of the traders was transferred from the post, so only one young man was left. Traders.

Who would have thought that hundreds of millions of funds were in the hands of a young man?Who can guarantee that an impulsive young man will not act recklessly in the futures market on impulse?This means that the risk control system for the copper futures trading of the State Reserve Bureau at that time was not too small, but did not exist at all.

Now that a trader in Huaxia made a short position of about 300 million tons of steel futures in two consecutive days, international speculators finally couldn't sit still.

International speculators could not understand the logic of that trader's behavior from a technical point of view.Therefore, they are more inclined to judge: that trader may be in an unsupervised state, so he freed himself to trade indiscriminately-those cases with extremely heavy losses in the history of futures trading are basically traders who are in an unsupervised state or successfully escaped Supervision, the tragedy that is brewed only by illegal operations.

Suspecting that traders were operating indiscriminately this time, international speculators appeared one after another like vultures smelling death.

Steel is a large variety of futures, and it is difficult to manipulate prices.But there is a saying that there is great power in numbers, and international speculators have sufficient communication channels with each other.After exchanges, the international speculators teamed up to go long, causing the steel futures price to rise rapidly 30 days later.

……

One cheap three loves.After Luo Yi paid [-] points, there was no need to pay for the subsequent storage and transportation, so for him, steel can be regarded as almost zero cost.

When Guo Jia's corresponding department accepts steel, it keeps accounts at half the market price - no payment is required after receiving the goods, and only after the steel is sold does it need to transfer money to the corresponding account.Therefore, there is no pressure on the relevant departments to engage in price wars.

So to the surprise and anger of the international speculators, the relevant departments of Huaxia made a double-handed move this time.

As international speculators teamed up to do more, the price of steel futures rose rapidly.Driven by changes in futures prices, spot steel prices also began to rise slowly.However, at this time, Huaxia Steel began to ship at a lower price.Due to the relatively large shipments, the spot price dropped rapidly.

Theoretically, the prices of futures and spot are mutually affected.

If the futures price rises, it means that the market is generally bullish on this commodity, so the spot owner will also increase the price and be reluctant to sell it.

Conversely, if the futures price falls, there is no reason for the seller who owns the spot to insist on asking for a high price.For example, in the current steel spot market, its market price is relatively low.Then the ultimate consumers of steel will never buy futures contracts at a higher price.

However, after the international speculators unite, the amount of funds they own is still huge.Therefore, when the price of the spot market has plummeted, the price of the futures contract stubbornly sticks to the bottom line.

Seeing that the delivery date of futures trading was approaching, the relevant departments of Huaxia finally showed their trump card.

(End of this chapter)