Reborn Tech Maniac

Chapter 979
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Without thinking too much, you can guess that "The Dow Jones Industrial Average [-] Points: A New Strategy on How to Profit in the Future Bull Market", such a provocative bull market prediction book, has been met with serious attitudes. criticism from professionals.

For example, Paul Krugman, an American economist and columnist for The New York Times, believes that the two authors, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett, have made very stupid basic arithmetic errors.

In response, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett made a very high-profile bet with the critics, that is, if their predictions are wrong, then they will donate a sum of money to any designated public welfare organization. thousands of dollars.

This is an era of attracting people's attention. Not only are public figures not afraid of controversy, but they also like to take the opportunity to recruit believers.

Ever since, the popularity of this book can only be described as "a mess", so that the two authors, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett, must leave a strong place in history. It's a sum.

The reason why the general public is so enthusiastic about "[-] Dow Jones Industrial Average: A New Strategy on How to Profit in the Future Bull Market" is simply because it appeared at the right time and at the right place due to luck.

First of all, it must be admitted that James Glassman and Kevin Hassett are not ordinary people, and they have the most convincing foundation.

Secondly, and more importantly, the current bull market driven by technology stocks has too many reasons to thrive.

You might as well think about it, compared to the original time and space, Tang Huan gave. How much "real material" has been added to the Internet wave where the COM concept is mostly hyped. The three pure Internet companies, AOL, Yahoo, and Amazon, have always correctly stepped on the beat of the times.

At the same time, in today's world where the situation of globalization is very obvious, the United States, as the sole superhegemon, naturally has to draw blood from various places to support its own glory.

In addition to these macro factors, the general public instinctively yearns for a bull market.

You must know that the personal pension of the American people mainly depends on their own management, so the rotten principle of "you don't manage money, and money ignores you" has been regarded as a sacred scripture by countless people.

At this stage, almost all asset allocation consultants are actively promoting the concept of "balanced allocation" consisting of 60.00% stocks and 40.00% bonds to "big mothers and grandmothers", and use this as a solution for everyone Panacea for financial problems.

According to data tracked by NYU Stern School of Business, among other reliable sources, from the 20s onwards, this concept of "balanced allocation" is a well-thought-out concept of being able to outperform the rate of inflation by spending Earn an additional 5.00% point three on average.

With the concept of "balanced allocation" underpinned by "Modern Portfolio Theory," returns can only come from three sources: bond yields, stock dividends, and stock price growth.

The first two of them are deeply affected by the manipulation methods of the US Federal Reserve Board such as raising and lowering interest rates, and various dazzling and unpredictable rules of the game on Wall Street. Only "stock price growth" can be regarded as free from human intervention. "objective phenomenon".

Under such circumstances, it is not difficult to imagine the enthusiasm and obsession of the most common people for the bull market.

James Glassman and Kevin Hassett's "Dow Jones Industrial Average [-] Points: A New Strategy for Profiting in the Future Bull Market" swears that the stock market is still undervalued at this stage , In the next three to four years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average can reach [-] points, which is in everyone's heart.

Human beings are so smart, but ironically, they always subconsciously choose to believe what they want to believe.

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average [-] Points: A New Strategy for Profiting in the Future Bull Market" is such a wonderful work created under the background of the special era that everyone is enthusiastically pursuing now, but it will feel unbelievable in the next few years .

As a "experienced person", Tang Huan is definitely not such a fool.However, he is not overly superstitious about existing "experiences".

It is extremely dangerous to copy the original conclusion mechanically.

Take Zheru Software Company as an example, it is a variable that has been added out of thin air, and countless observers are analyzing that this one of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index constituent stocks has been repeatedly beaten by the United States of America v Zheru Software Company monopoly case, but Why are you still so chic?The final results tend to be the same, that is, Zheru Software has "real materials", which largely offsets the concept of only hype. COM bubble.

When abstracting the real world into a "system" that can be analyzed, how to deal with the "variables" that produce the butterfly effect will definitely test wisdom.

Tang Huan didn't dare to be [-]% sure, the current . The COM bubble will follow the historical trajectory and will inevitably burst in March next year.

The richest man can only collect as much key information as possible from his own global intelligence channels to deduce repeatedly.

For example, international oil and natural gas prices have indeed begun to rise after years of decline, so much so that they became a legitimate basis for Enron to manipulate electricity prices in California.

For another example, companies that have continuously increased their IT budgets for the "Year [-] Bug" have complained endlessly. It is estimated that after passing this level safely, they will greatly reduce their enthusiasm for IT investment.

In addition, in the current wave of Internet, many hardware suppliers aggressively sell a large number of products to customers on credit in order to seize market share, forming a considerable amount of accounts receivable. Lucent is such a typical representative.

To some extent, today's brilliance is overdrafting tomorrow's needs.

This round of good times in the process of economic development in the United States has lasted for seven or eight years, and it is time to start the cycle of profit and loss in the next month.

Just like getting out of a stock market with the same serious bubble ten years ago, we should not be arrogant and obsessed with finding the highest point.After all, there are too many smart people in this field, and no one is willing to be a "taker".

Mr. Richest Man, who rejected all unnecessary entertainment, was "retreating and practicing", when Jobs called and yelled angrily: "Don, I knew it, I went to the hospital with you, and did some bloody health checks, no? Good thing!"

Tang Huan stretched his waist, and asked casually: "Is your nerve reflex arc too long? It's been a long time since my final complete physical examination report was delivered, and it should be the same on your side. But how do I hear it?" Your tone just now seems to have just read your final complete medical report."

"If I hadn't been called several times by the hospital, I would have forgotten about this physical examination report." Jobs said angrily, "Do you know what the conclusion is? You even suspect that my pancreas has a tumor!"

Tang Huan teased lightly, "You should stop complaining. If I had the ability to 'cast a curse', I would have sent the current governor of California, Gray Davis, in."

"Besides, I'm still counting on you to lead the revival of Apple Computer Company, and the money will be rolling in; if you are full, you will be hurt."

"Okay, Steve, you are also the husband of your wife and the father of your child, be responsible for yourself!"

After getting rid of Jobs, who had a weird way of judging causality, the richest man continued to "retreat and practice", but he didn't expect that after a few days, another moth would appear.

Jobs' wife, Lauren Powell, called and hurriedly mentioned that Jobs' reaction left him wondering, even scared.

It turned out that when Jobs found a "shadow" on his pancreas during the physical examination, although Jobs procrastinated at first, he followed the doctor's advice and went to the hospital for further reexamination and diagnosis.

But when the doctor suggested surgery to remove the tumor before it spread widely, Jobs' behavior gradually became "different".

First, Jobs contacted some friends in his circle.

For example, he called Larry Brilliant, a friend he met when he went to India for retreat more than 20 years ago.

The man was an epidemiologist who was participating in the World Health Organization's efforts to eradicate smallpox in India.

Jobs cut to the chase, "Do you still believe in God?"

Larry Brilliant answered in the affirmative.

After confirming this consensus, the two began to think back in the past and discussed the paths leading to God taught by the Indian master Neem Karoli Baba they met when they went to India for meditation.

After Larry Brilliant began to be clouded, he asked Jobs what was wrong.

Jobs then replied: "I have cancer."

Lauren Powell reflected angrily. At this moment, she really should have thought that Jobs was going to take an extraordinary path of treatment.

Jobs also contacted former Intel CEO Andy Grove, who specially came to Jobs' home and stayed for two hours, enthusiastically sharing his anti-cancer experience.

After consulting this big circle, Jobs made a decision that surprised his family, that is, he rejected the doctor's suggestion of surgery and looked for other feasible methods.In fact, to put it bluntly, on the basis of implementing a strict vegetarian diet, intake a lot of fresh carrots and fruit juices.

Tang Huan, who had been thinking about how to orderly get out of the current bull market when he saw a good deal, didn't realize it at first after hearing all this, and it took him a while to realize that Jobs had made another mistake. An old problem in thinking.

Just like many great figures in China believe in superstitious masters and celebrities worship dragon kings, many people in the United States are also deeply influenced by mysterious and mysterious things.

Jobs ran to India in his 20s and almost died there with diarrhea. The purpose was to find a spiritual mentor and achieve enlightenment through ascetic experience, sensory stripping and returning to nature.Achieve inner peace.

These behaviors that seem unbelievable today still had a market in the 70s when the counterculture represented by hippies prevailed.

The richest man suddenly became angry. He had worked hard to let Jobs work for a few more years, but why did this guy go to seek his own death?

After forcibly calming down, Tang Huan asked gently, "Lauren, what's your family's attitude towards this matter?"

Lauren Powell replied helplessly, "Of course we listened to the doctor's advice and operated on as soon as possible, so as to get a radical cure before the discovery! But if we follow Steve's choice, it may be delayed."

"Don, now, Steve can't even listen to what we say. We can only hope that you can exert influence on him."

The richest man patted the mountain of documents on his desk, and said slowly into the microphone: "Well, invite the doctor over, and let's all have a meeting with Steve and talk about it."

As a result, Jobs once again let everyone see his unpredictable and weird donkey temper, and roared in public: "I am free to choose any treatment method!"

Tang Huan frowned and said, "Steve, this is just a small operation, and what you get in return is once and for all. What's the matter? Cutting the tumor is like cutting your faith?"

"Don, you are so right. This is cutting my faith." Jobs said with a different nose and a different face: "Don, I am willing to listen to your advice in terms of official affairs; but this is my personal matter. , please don't interfere!"

The richest man kept his patience and tried to persuade: "Your health is not entirely a private matter. It is related to whether you can effectively lead the Apple Computer Company on the road to revival. Besides, I have no doubts about the brilliant future of Apple Computer Company." The level of expectation is even higher than Fang Yuan."

Jobs insisted unmoved: "My faith is gone, and Apple has lost its creativity, so how can we talk about glory?"

In the midst of arguing, the assistant hurriedly handed over an exclusive mobile phone. After Tang Huan answered it briefly, his expression changed drastically.

Putting the phone away, Mr. Richest Man stared at Jobs and said impatiently: "I'll give you two choices, cut your beliefs; or get ready for the second time to get out of the company you created!"

……

The winter in Yanjing this year is extremely cold!
After Silicon Valley One landed, Tang Huan quickly got into the car greeted by his eldest cousin Han Sining and went straight to the [-] Hospital.

The 92-year-old grandfather Han Zhiliang is critically ill; his uncle Han Anyong, who is the top official in the southwest, is already guarding the bedside.

Seeing Tang Huan arriving hurriedly, Han Zhiliang's eyes lit up, and he said vaguely: "Boss, remember, come back when you are told, come back when you are asked, read more history, and often reflect on yourself; Tang, Grandpa can't give you advice on what to do, I just want to remind you so that you can do it yourself!"

(End of this chapter)